Buchholz Traded to the Phillies

[notin]

It'll be no surprise if the bastard has one of his best seasons this year.

 

I do plan on targeting him in my NL Only Auction League....

[harmony]

Buch was likely our 7th rated starter, and at 13.5mill he was expendable.

Given the weak return, that tells you what the market though of Buch, as it's a given that DD would have engaged with the entire trade market.

The timing may be related to another player being signed.

Clay Buchholz started Game 2 this year and was the Opening Day starter for the Red Sox in Philadelphia the previous year.

 

Still the trade made a ton of sense.

[cp176]

It'll be no surprise if the bastard has one of his best seasons this year.

 

Take heart! We still have the other little bastard kicking around - probably we will be kicking him around before it is all said and done.

[SoxnCycles]

LOL I keep reading that if Buchholz is pitching well, the Phillies could trade him at the deadline for a much better haul than what they gave up. The Sox trading back for him is the first thing that came to mind.

 

Now that would be funny!

 

Like Notin said earlier, the Sale trade made Clay expendable.

I don't see how the Sox were going to manage 7 major league starters.

Were they supposed to have two long relievers, stash Rodriguez in Pawtucket?

 

They did what needed to be done to get well under the tax limit and free up a spot for E-rod.

 

I always liked Buchholz, but he's probably better off with a change of scenery.

[moonslav59]

Maybe we have all been too quick to downplay he return we got for Buch...

 

The Red Sox freed up some salary by dealing Clay Buchholz to the Phillies, but Boston also likes the prospect (Josh Tobias) they got in return, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes. Tobias, a 10th-round pick for the Phillies in 2015, was one of 10 names targeted by the Sox as they looked through Philadelphia’s system. Red Sox director of pro scouting Gus Quattlebaum describes Tobias as “having potential as a versatile, switch-hitting guy with make-up and a feel to hit. Whenever you can find someone who can hit, that guy is going to standout.“

Edited December 23, 2016 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

If that happens you'll never head the end of it from me... and possibly Kimmie!

 

Nah, I'm not one to say something over and over.......

[Kimmi]

It would be especially funny if Josh Tobias found his way on to the Sox "untouchable" list by then too...

 

Haha. Stranger things have happened.

[Kimmi]

Now that would be funny!

 

Like Notin said earlier, the Sale trade made Clay expendable.

I don't see how the Sox were going to manage 7 major league starters.

Were they supposed to have two long relievers, stash Rodriguez in Pawtucket?

 

They did what needed to be done to get well under the tax limit and free up a spot for E-rod.

 

I always liked Buchholz, but he's probably better off with a change of scenery.

 

As others have said, he will probably thrive and pitch his butt off this year.

 

I understand the trade. Resetting the tax penalty is no small feat.

[moonslav59]

As others have said, he will probably thrive and pitch his butt off this year.

 

I understand the trade. Resetting the tax penalty is no small feat.

 

To me, the Buch dump goes beyond the tax reset. The spending space it created could allow us to acquire a much better player at the deadline. A more reliable SP'er. A 3Bman, if Pablo sucks. A top notch RP'er.

 

We can afford to take on someone elses salary dump, so the return in prospect(s) would be minimal, ans since we'd only be paying 1/3 of the contract, we can even get two guys making $15M annually and be adding only $10M to our budget (.33 x $30M).

[Bellhorn04]

To me, the Buch dump goes beyond the tax reset. The spending space it created could allow us to acquire a much better player at the deadline. A more reliable SP'er. A 3Bman, if Pablo sucks. A top notch RP'er.

 

We can afford to take on someone elses salary dump, so the return in prospect(s) would be minimal, ans since we'd only be paying 1/3 of the contract, we can even get two guys making $15M annually and be adding only $10M to our budget (.33 x $30M).

 

Teams generally don't do strict salary dumps in deadline trades. You usually have to give to get, right? It would be terrible management to pay 2/3 of a guy's salary and then just hand him off to a contender who only has to pay the final 1/3.

[moonslav59]

Teams generally don't do strict salary dumps in deadline trades. You usually have to give to get, right? It would be terrible management to pay 2/3 of a guy's salary and then just hand him off to a contender who only has to pay the final 1/3.

 

You're right, and usually there's an overpay even for a salary dump type deal.

 

Even deals like the Peavy trade, which was for 1.3 years of control- not 0.3 is still being debated today.

 

I hate to use the Shields deal as an example, because he sucked after his trade to the CWS, but the Padres paid $27M of the $42M owed to him and only got F Tatis and Erik Johnson in return. It's not a good example, because he wasn't a 0.3 year dump, but still, he only cost the CWS about $8M on the luxury tax budget. The gamble on him was similar to the gamble on Buch.

 

Maybe a better comp would be the trade of Scott Feldman by the Astros for Lupe Chavez. Feldman was on his last year at $8M and was doing well for Houston (2.90 ERA in 62 IP at trade time). He ended up sucking for the Jays afterwards though, but I see him as a similar gamble to Buch for any given 1/3 of a season.

[moonslav59]

If the Royals are out of it by July, they could look to dump the salaries of these guys on their last years:

 

3B Moustakas $8.7M

OF Lorenzo Cain $11M

SP Jason Vargas $8M

1B Eric Hosmer $last arb

SP Danny Duffy $last arb

 

The cost might be way too high for a rental, but at least we can afford their contracts.

 

 

The Yanks might look to dump CC Sabathia ($25M). He'd cost about $8.5M at the deadline.

 

CWS? Todd Frazier (last arb), M Cabrera ($15M), J Shields (only $10M owed by CWS)

 

The Rangers are not likely to be out of it at the deadline, but if they are, they might look to trade Darvish ($11M, A Cashner $10M or Beltre ($18M x 2)

Edited December 23, 2016 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

To me, the Buch dump goes beyond the tax reset. The spending space it created could allow us to acquire a much better player at the deadline. A more reliable SP'er. A 3Bman, if Pablo sucks. A top notch RP'er.

 

We can afford to take on someone elses salary dump, so the return in prospect(s) would be minimal, ans since we'd only be paying 1/3 of the contract, we can even get two guys making $15M annually and be adding only $10M to our budget (.33 x $30M).

 

I agree that it is nice to have some wiggle room in case we need to pick up someone midseason.

 

As I've said, I completely understand the Buchholz trade.

[raider_35_24]

I do plan on targeting him in my NL Only Auction League....

 

he's only going to be hurt most of the time....

[a700hitter]

Buch is a $1 roster filler player in an auction fantasy league.

[notin]

Buch is a $1 roster filler player in an auction fantasy league.

 

He'll easily be worth that.

[moonslav59]

He'll easily be worth that.

 

There's a chance he won't be worth that in MLB.

[cp176]

There's a chance he won't be worth that in MLB.

 

And on the other hand - when good Buch surfaces which is bound to happen?

[OH FOY]

I were the Sox I would sign Doug Fister for 7 million, what he mage last year, just in case for Injury, performance, just for emergency. Guy pitched 180 innings last year, will do about what Buchholz would do and cheaper.

[Bellhorn04]

I were the Sox I would sign Doug Fister for 7 million, what he mage last year, just in case for Injury, performance, just for emergency. Guy pitched 180 innings last year, will do about what Buchholz would do and cheaper.

 

Unfortunately that would create the same roster issues with 7 starters, with E-Rod the only one of them that can be sent to AAA, and as we've established, nobody wants E-Rod in AAA.

 

Hanging onto the money for when it's really needed seems to be the right policy at the moment.

[notin]

I were the Sox I would sign Doug Fister for 7 million, what he mage last year, just in case for Injury, performance, just for emergency. Guy pitched 180 innings last year, will do about what Buchholz would do and cheaper.

 

And get right back into the same situation they were in before dealing Buchholz?

 

Not to mention, Fister can probably find a deal that puts him in an actual MLB rotation.Anyone who thinks they can get an MLB jobI is not likely to settle for a depth job.

 

The Sox might be able to sign someone like Dillon Gee or Ross Detwiler or Vance Worley, unexciting as that is. But they do NEED to get someone like that...

[Kimmi]

And get right back into the same situation they were in before dealing Buchholz?

 

Not to mention, Fister can probably find a deal that puts him in an actual MLB rotation.Anyone who thinks they can get an MLB jobI is not likely to settle for a depth job.

 

The Sox might be able to sign someone like Dillon Gee or Ross Detwiler or Vance Worley, unexciting as that is. But they do NEED to get someone like that...

 

It is difficult to sign a quality free agent starter for depth without creating roster crunches. As you said, pitchers who have the quality are likely to get a starting position on another team, and they aren't the types of pitchers who would sign minor league contracts.

 

That's another advantage of stashing someone like ERod in AAA. He is quality depth for when the inevitable injury or underperformance occurs. It's like making a very good midseason acquisition without having to pay anything.

[notin]

It is difficult to sign a quality free agent starter for depth without creating roster crunches. As you said, pitchers who have the quality are likely to get a starting position on another team, and they aren't the types of pitchers who would sign minor league contracts.

 

That's another advantage of stashing someone like ERod in AAA. He is quality depth for when the inevitable injury or underperformance occurs. It's like making a very good midseason acquisition without having to pay anything.

 

If not Rodriguez, I believe the Sox could also stash Kelly in AAA for depth. ..

[moonslav59]

And on the other hand - when good Buch surfaces which is bound to happen?

 

It's not "bound to happen" in any given year. Last year was the first season I know of where Buch had a half good season and a half bad season.

 

He's either good for a half season and then out injured, or bad for a half and out injured the other half or good or bad for a full season.

 

There was too much of a probability of him sucking and/or being hurt to justify paying him that much to be our 6/7th starter.

[moonslav59]

If not Rodriguez, I believe the Sox could also stash Kelly in AAA for depth. ..

 

As up and down as Kelly has been, that's a real possibility, assuming a strong desire to keep both Abad and Hembree exists.

 

Ross has an option, too, but he's been one of our most consistent RP'ers since we got him, so I doubt that happens, unless he's got a nagging injury.

 

At another position, Bryce Brentz is out of options, and barring injury, I predict he'll be traded or DFA'd. That would make room for us to sign a SP'er or two to a minor league contract as insurance.

[cp176]

It's not "bound to happen" in any given year. Last year was the first season I know of where Buch had a half good season and a half bad season.

 

He's either good for a half season and then out injured, or bad for a half and out injured the other half or good or bad for a full season.

 

There was too much of a probability of him sucking and/or being hurt to justify paying him that much to be our 6/7th starter.

 

Buchollz pitching well next season at some point is bound to happen.

[moonslav59]

Buchollz pitching well next season at some point is bound to happen.

 

Maybe for 1 or 2 starts.

 

With Buch, nothing is "bound to happen".

 

The best bet on what is "bound to happen" would be an injury.

 

3:1 Injury and poorly any part of the season he does pitch

5:2 pitches well for most of the season or most of the time he is healthy

5:2 pitches poorly for of most of the season or most of the time he is healthy

7:2 Pitches well for about half the season and poorly the rest

10:1 pitches poorly all season

10:1 Pitches well all season

[notin]

As up and down as Kelly has been, that's a real possibility, assuming a strong desire to keep both Abad and Hembree exists.

 

Ross has an option, too, but he's been one of our most consistent RP'ers since we got him, so I doubt that happens, unless he's got a nagging injury.

 

At another position, Bryce Brentz is out of options, and barring injury, I predict he'll be traded or DFA'd. That would make room for us to sign a SP'er or two to a minor league contract as insurance.

 

There is no reason to keep Brentz period.

 

I do think the only reason the Sox still have Abad is they haven't replaced him yet...

[Spudboy]

There is no reason to keep Brentz period.

 

I do think the only reason the Sox still have Abad is they haven't replaced him yet...

 

Maybe so but there who people believe that Brentz has MLB hitting tools.

[Hugh2]

Maybe so but there who people believe that Brentz has MLB hitting tools.

 

Not many, I like Brent's as a depth option but I'm not sure he's worth a 40 man spot.