Buchholz Traded to the Phillies

[moonslav59]

I've been saying Brentz should be the next to go for the last 3-5 DFA's.

 

Losing Basabe and Castillo from the 40 man roster has greatly limited out OF depth beyond what we have on the 25 man roster. Swihart and Brentz are the only two goes not projected to be on the 25 man roster that can play OF without needing to be added to the 40 man roster.

 

We may not need to go beyond the 25 man roster as we have these guys that can our can pretend to play the OF:

Young

Holt

Moreland

HanRam (Yikes!)

 

[SoxHop]

I gotta ask. Why the heck did we sign Moreland?????

[Bellhorn04]

I gotta ask. Why the heck did we sign Moreland?????

 

a) Only cost 5.5 million so he fit the budget.

Good defensive 1B, lets Hanley move to DH and improves our run prevention.

c) Average hitter with 20+HR pop and has good numbers at Fenway. If we're lucky he might even be an asset with the stick.

[Nick]

Per OverTheMonster by Ben Buchanan

 

On Thursday night, Edwin Encarnacion’s free agency saga finally came to an end with a 3-year, $60 million contract with the Guardians. The contract is a bit of a coup for the Guardians, especially when you consider that it comes with an option year for 2020.

 

Of course, the local response has been a bit heated. The Red Sox are seen as having missed out here and, yes, it’s hard to argue that they did not. Even with the price of a draft pick, Encarnacion is easily a $20 million player right now, and having that fourth year be a team option goes a long way in reducing the risk for the Guardians. If a deal is a coup, yeah, you’d hope it’s your team making it.

 

The question is: why didn’t the Red Sox get in on this? The answer is likely that there just wasn’t room in the budget, and here’s where it gets hard to really criticize the Red Sox—at least the Red Sox of the present—for missing out.

 

The reality that we must face around this time every season is that baseball is a business, and that sometimes the decisions of general managers come down to more than “is this good value or not?” The Red Sox entered this offseason with, frankly, little room to spare in terms of money. Their Opening Day payroll in 2016 was about $198 million, and by season’s end that was up to $204 million. They dropped a few big contracts in David Ortiz, Clay Buchholz, and Koji Uehara, yes, but the reality is that $204 million was far-and-away the high-water mark in team history, nearly $20 million over the 2015 figure which was itself nearly $10 million over the previous high.

 

It’s true that we should generally expect payroll to go up given that’s how things have worked in baseball for decades now, but that’s really only in terms of a general trend-line. On a year-to-year basis, we should expect the number to fluctuate, and it seems entirely possible that these last two offseasons saw ownership increase the budget beyond where they were generally comfortable in an attempt to return the team to a competitive level in the aftermath of 2014 and 2015.

 

Now, that tactic didn’t really work. The last couple offseasons have seen the Red Sox spend quite a lot of money on players like Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and David Price. And while the latter two did contribute in 2016, the real reason the team played October baseball once more is mostly because of the farm system, with Rick Porcello the best example of money producing wins (and if he’s anything like he was this year in 2017 and beyond, his contract kind of puts Encarnacion’s to shame, though that’s neither here nor there). Still, whether the increased spending worked or not doesn’t change the fact that it’s on the books now, and not coming off for a while yet. And for all that we can bemoan some of the deals the Red Sox made in that time, well, they’ve already cost Ben Cherington his job. You’d be beating a horse that’s been dead for over a year now.

 

If you want proof that this really did come down to budget, look no further than the man the last two major moves the Red Sox have made. They signed Mitch Moreland for $5.5 million and dumped Clay Buchholz’ salary overboard for effectively nothing in return. This doesn’t happen if there’s $20 million left in the budget.And make no mistake, it’s not about paying a small amount of luxury tax on the overage. It’s about the actual $20 million that comes first.

 

Essentially, then, the complaint against not signing Encarnacion boils down to a complaint that the Red Sox have a budget that is not as high as some would like. That starts sounding awfully silly, though, when you look at other teams which passed on Edwin Encarnacion with payrolls that are tens of millions of dollars lower than Boston’s. The argument that a win-now Sox team shouldn’t be worrying about salary also falls a bit flat considering that they were trying to be a win-now team in 2015 and 2016 as well. Red Sox fans are never really going to be happy with the team saying they’re in win-later mode, so the argument of “spend now, save later” doesn’t really hold up. You can rage against the concept of baseball as a business all you want. It’s just not terribly useful to do so, and us Red Sox fans aren’t exactly in a position to complain.

[Bellhorn04]

You can rage against the concept of baseball as a business all you want. It’s just not terribly useful to do so, and us Red Sox fans aren’t exactly in a position to complain.

 

100% correct. And what Sox fans have to keep in mind is that not only is the team bumping up against the tax threshold for 2017, their payroll for tax purposes doesn't even include the 22+ million plus they're paying Castillo and Craig. Little wonder that JH is trying to draw the line a bit.

[Nick]

With additional penalty attached without raising the ceiling very high, MLB is getting closer to having a hard cap. This is really a win for major market team owners. More money will drop into their pockets without seeming greedy. Henry is spending close to the luxury tax limit. Meanwhile TV revenue continues to rise. As pointed out in the past, revenue increases are outstripping the increase in luxury tax limit.

[Hugh2]

With additional penalty attached without raising the ceiling very high, MLB is getting closer to having a hard cap. This is really a win for major market team owners. More money will drop into their pockets without seeming greedy. Henry is spending close to the luxury tax limit. Meanwhile TV revenue continues to rise. As pointed out in the past, revenue increases are outstripping the increase in luxury tax limit.

 

On the contrary the new CBA favors the smaller market teams. They get from losing free agents, they lose less for signing them. More picks, and more money, not to mention all the revenue sharing.

 

The new CBA is a lower for major market teams as it continues to handicap their biggest asset in money. The only real concession they got was a raise to the luxury tax ceiling which is not in step with salary inflation.

 

I think you're right in that these guys are still billionaires making out well, but the last couple CBA agreements have been all about shifting power to the smaller market teams and reaching parity in the sport.

[Bellhorn04]

All owners seem to have been winners in the new CBA.

 

I don't see how baseball revenues can grow much more considering the overall economy. The bubble has to burst eventually.

[Nick]

On the contrary the new CBA favors the smaller market teams. They get from losing free agents, they lose less for signing them. More picks, and more money, not to mention all the revenue sharing.

 

The new CBA is a lower for major market teams as it continues to handicap their biggest asset in money. The only real concession they got was a raise to the luxury tax ceiling which is not in step with salary inflation.

 

I think you're right in that these guys are still billionaires making out well, but the last couple CBA agreements have been all about shifting power to the smaller market teams and reaching parity in the sport.

 

I'm strictly pointing out that new CBA will bring parity among teams in terms of competition but the revenues will be tilted still towards big market clubs.

 

John Henry will make more money without getting called out by the Sox fans. He's spending the MAX already and the goalposts aren't moving much....what will be our complaint other than poor baseball operation? He can take out DD without spending much money.

Edited December 25, 2016 by Nick

[Nick]

All owners seem to have been winners in the new CBA.

 

I don't see how baseball revenues can grow much more considering the overall economy. The bubble has to burst eventually.

 

I ended up paying $90 or so to get the Red Sox only package. They can raise it to $200 and I will still get it. There's still room for growth, as long as we are winning.

 

Perhaps by 2025 there will be no foul territory at Fenway to accomodate additional seating....jk.

Edited December 25, 2016 by Nick

[moonslav59]

a) Only cost 5.5 million so he fit the budget.

Good defensive 1B, lets Hanley move to DH and improves our run prevention.

c) Average hitter with 20+HR pop and has good numbers at Fenway. If we're lucky he might even be an asset with the stick.

 

d) he will platoon as HanRam plays 1B vs LHPs and Young DHs. He is better vs RHPs than Young.

[moonslav59]

100% correct. And what Sox fans have to keep in mind is that not only is the team bumping up against the tax threshold for 2017, their payroll for tax purposes doesn't even include the 22+ million plus they're paying Castillo and Craig. Little wonder that JH is trying to draw the line a bit.

 

Yes, and next year's FA class is loaded with helpful players. We'll know a lot more about our true needs then. Some unknowns need to be answered in 2017 before we sign big money players to 3 year contracts.

[moonslav59]

I ended up paying $90 or so to get the Red Sox only package. They can raise it to $200 and I will still get it. There's still room for growth, as long as we are winning.

 

Perhaps by 2025 there will be no foul territory at Fenway to accomodate additional seating....jk.

 

I still have not heard the specifics on revenue sharing and how teams can lose it by spending too much. Anyone have the scoop there?

[Spudboy]

All owners seem to have been winners in the new CBA.

 

I don't see how baseball revenues can grow much more considering the overall economy. The bubble has to burst eventually.

 

Agree.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Yeah a total salary dump. The Phillies were probably one of the few teams that would take on all of Buchholz's contract.

 

Dombrowski was right to trade him now rather than wait. (1) Buchholz is fragile--he could get hurt in spring training and the Red Sox would be stuck with the contract. (2) The Phillies have the budget for Buchholz NOW but they might not have the budget for Buchholz one or two months from now.

[moonslav59]

Yeah a total salary dump. The Phillies were probably one of the few teams that would take on all of Buchholz's contract.

 

Dombrowski was right to trade him now rather than wait. (1) Buchholz is fragile--he could get hurt in spring training and the Red Sox would be stuck with the contract. (2) The Phillies have the budget for Buchholz NOW but they might not have the budget for Buchholz one or two months from now.

 

Yes, and not only can we reset the luxury tax for next year's prime class of FAs, we have a lot of room to add someone mid season, if needed.

[Kimmi]

100% correct. And what Sox fans have to keep in mind is that not only is the team bumping up against the tax threshold for 2017, their payroll for tax purposes doesn't even include the 22+ million plus they're paying Castillo and Craig. Little wonder that JH is trying to draw the line a bit.

 

When it comes to the amount he is willing to spend, Sox fans really can't complain about Henry. He has shown his willingness to put a contending team on the field year in and year out. That said, he does not have an unlimited payroll, and it would be unwise for him to operate the Red Sox or any business in that manner.

 

Encarnacion would have been another one of those luxuries that we really didn't need and really couldn't afford.

 

As an aside, Ben Buchanan has become one of my favorite writers. I don't always agree with him, but he does a good job.

[harmony]

Steamer now projects Clay Buchholz with a 2017 WAR of 1.6 in 18 starts:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P

[Bellhorn04]

Steamer now projects Clay Buchholz with a 2017 WAR of 1.6 in 18 starts:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P

 

In a way it's comical that they're projecting him for 18 starts. Realistic, though.

[harmony]

In a way it's comical that they're projecting him for 18 starts. Realistic, though.

Realistically comical.

[Kimmi]

Realistically comical.

 

Or comically realistic.

[notin]

Funny story.

 

Per MLBTR, the Red Sox are reportedly looking into acquiring a "Buchholz-type" pitcher and the list of candidates could potentially include Buchholz himself. It seems Rodriguez' knee tweak has already depleted the Sox depth at starting pitcher.

 

Historically, Dombrowski has shown he does two things as a GM. He gets star players. And he ignores pitching depth...

[Bellhorn04]

Historically, Dombrowski has shown he does two things as a GM. He gets star players. And he ignores pitching depth...

 

That may be so, but I don't think Dombrowski is the guy who should get most of the blame for our lack of pitching depth. It wasn't exactly Ben's strong suit either.

[Kimmi]

Funny story.

 

Per MLBTR, the Red Sox are reportedly looking into acquiring a "Buchholz-type" pitcher and the list of candidates could potentially include Buchholz himself. It seems Rodriguez' knee tweak has already depleted the Sox depth at starting pitcher.

 

Historically, Dombrowski has shown he does two things as a GM. He gets star players. And he ignores pitching depth...

 

I read that earlier and did a mental eye roll to myself.

 

I understand the team wanting to get under the salary cap, but I was afraid the trade might come back to haunt us. Not that it has yet.

 

I certainly hope ERod's knee injury is nothing serious.

[Dojji]

It should be noted that our starting pitching depth is no worse now than it was before we acquired Sale.

[Bellhorn04]

As notin said in another thread, we need to sign some scrap heap guys.

[notin]

That may be so, but I don't think Dombrowski is the guy who should get most of the blame for our lack of pitching depth. It wasn't exactly Ben's strong suit either.

 

The Sox did usually have a few MLB ready starters under Cherington. Many were unexciting guys like Doubront or Workman or De La Rosa.

 

I don't expect All Stars coming up from AAA, or even every call up to succeed. But I do expect sufficient depth that there is a better chance of success from one or two arms. Unlike last year.

 

This isn't about building the farm. This is about the types of guys that are available every year for minor league deals, and are usually the types of deals many fans deride as looking for "lightning in a bottle" when they are necessary depth...

[notin]

As notin said in another thread, we need to sign some scrap heap guys.

 

Absolutely.

 

If they are better than Owens Johnson, mission accomplished. If not, they are only minor league contracts. And there is no such thing as a bad minor league contract...

[Kimmi]

It should be noted that our starting pitching depth is no worse now than it was before we acquired Sale.

 

Well, before we acquired Sale, I said that my biggest concern for our team was the lack of starting pitching depth.

 

If ERod's injury is significant, our depth takes a huge hit before the season even starts.

 

Where we once had 8 viable starting pitchers were debating about who should start over whom, we could possibly be down to 5 viable starters and be in serious trouble if we have another injury.

[moonslav59]

Well, before we acquired Sale, I said that my biggest concern for our team was the lack of starting pitching depth.

 

If ERod's injury is significant, our depth takes a huge hit before the season even starts.

 

Where we once had 8 viable starting pitchers were debating about who should start over whom, we could possibly be down to 5 viable starters and be in serious trouble if we have another injury.

 

Say Pom or Wright gets hurt, we'll still have a great 4 starters and a replacement level 5th starter. I'm not sure I'd call that "serious trouble", but it is a concern.

 

We still won the division last year (yes, we can now say last year!) with this from some of our starters:

 

IP Pitcher W-L ERA

117 Buchholz 6-8 5.01

107 Rodriguez 3-7 4.71

67.1 Pomeranz 3-5 4.68

22.1 Joe Kelly 2-0 8.46

22.0 H Owens 0-2 6.95

20.1 O'Sullivan 2-0 6.64

4.0 R. Elias 0-1 15.75

 

Wright, who was our 6th starter last year is now our 6th starter (maybe 5th depending on ERod's knee), so adding a full year and hopefully a better one by Pomeranz and Wright as the number 5 still looks so much better than 2016 that maybe having a 5.50 ERS guy as our 5th starter would not be such a horrible thing.

 

Once we make the playoffs, our 5th starter is a non issue.