A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Fisk]

Welcome aboard. I became a Sox fan in 1972 as well.

 

Go SOX!

 

Thank you

[Kimmi]

I don't think we will have the mashers to win many games by 5+ runs. Our pitching is likely to keep us in games and give us a chance to win games by 4-2 and 5-3 scores. At least thats the plan.

 

I more or less agree, though I think our offense will be better than some people think it will be.

[Kimmi]

We lost a lot of close games last year. We seemed to lack the ability to get the "clutch" hit when we needed it. I put "clutch" in parenthesis, because I do not think it is a skill or repeatable aspect. Hopefully, the odds will be on our side this year in those close games.

 

I agree with Kimmi on the fact that our baseline should be 98 wins. I have to think taht even if you take away 15 wins due to Papi's retirement, Sale, Thornburg and Moreland should add quite a few wins to the projected total.

 

 

The outcomes of those close games is largely due to randomness. Even the might Cubs were one game under .500 in one run games. Therefore, we do need luck to be on our side to improve our record in those games.

[moonslav59]

I more or less agree, though I think our offense will be better than some people think it will be.

 

I think we'll come within 50 runs as last year.

[Kimmi]

Hi first time posting on this forum, have been a diehard fan since 72. Grew up a half hour away from Yankee stadium in the 70s that was not easy. Have very much appreciated our current ownership group after so many frustrating years. That said this is possibly the most talented sox team in my lifetime, offensively, defensively, pitching and even baserunning. They should have won more then 93 games last year based on the run differential and the amount of one run losses, with better luck this year they might be able to reach 100 wins which would be the first time in my lifetime.

 

Welcome aboard Fisk! It's a great time to be a Red Sox fan!

 

I think it will be very difficult for us to reach 100 wins, but I 100% share your excitement about this team.

[moonslav59]

The outcomes of those close games is largely due to randomness. Even the might Cubs were one game under .500 in one run games. Therefore, we do need luck to be on our side to improve our record in those games.

 

Agreed. We just need to stay relatively healthy.

[Kimmi]

I think we'll come within 50 runs as last year.

 

I think we will be in that neighborhood as well.

[Fisk]

Love Ortiz but he did clog up the bases last year. Obviously we will miss his bat, but I believe the production in left field will be greater. I know the reservations about Pablo, but remember how bad Shaw was from June on last Year. I think Pablo can hit 270 to 280 with 15 to 20 homers and ops around 800. My biggest concern is catcher have very little faith in Leon matching last year, hope for a short leash and an uptick in Swiharts defense. Overall I think the runs might fall a little short, but would not be surprised if they match it.

[Fisk]

Welcome aboard Fisk! It's a great time to be a Red Sox fan!

 

I think it will be very difficult for us to reach 100 wins, but I 100% share your excitement about this team.

 

Very difficult to reach 100 wins, but I believe this team in my lifetime has the best chance.

[notin]

Forgive my ignorance, but what is a WAPM?

 

Oh Kimmi.

 

It's the Wildly Accurate Projection Machine, sometimes called the UAPM (Uncannily Accurate Projection Machine). Basically the algorithms I wrote one day to improve my struggling fantasy team that I then had fun using to predict short term turnarounds for Nava and Buchholz a few years back on BDC...

[moonslav59]

Very difficult to reach 100 wins, but I believe this team in my lifetime has the best chance.

 

I felt great about the 2004 team that winter, but having three aces takes the cake.

 

I feel as excited as I have ever felt this time of year. I just wish Papi had prolonged hie retirement by one more year.

[Fisk]

Not as much competition as 04, the Yankees had a scary team, just added Arod, Vazquez, Sheffield and Brown. Defense and overall team speed should be much better then 04. Can use Papis bat in the middle of the lineup.

[moonslav59]

Not as much competition as 04, the Yankees had a scary team, just added Arod, Vazquez, Sheffield and Brown. Defense and overall team speed should be much better then 04. Can use Papis bat in the middle of the lineup.

 

Picking up Schilling gave me a lot of reason to expect greatness in '04, but it was really the day we traded Nomar that I felt as sure as ever we were going to win a ring, so I guess I was wrong about feeling that great in January 2004.

 

I feel pretty good right now.

[Fisk]

Picking up Schilling gave me a lot of reason to expect greatness in '04, but it was really the day we traded Nomar that I felt as sure as ever we were going to win a ring, so I guess I was wrong about feeling that great in January 2004.

 

I feel pretty good right now.

Schilling excited me also, but that whole Arod debacle that offseason and then Steinbrenner swooping in to get him put a damper on things. Looking back very happy we didn't get Arod, wonder how that would have changed our history.

[moonslav59]

Schilling excited me also, but that whole Arod debacle that offseason and then Steinbrenner swooping in to get him put a damper on things. Looking back very happy we didn't get Arod, wonder how that would have changed our history.

 

I was glad the ARod deal fell through.

 

Manny was better.

[Fisk]

I was glad the ARod deal fell through.

 

Manny was better.

Arod was the better all around ball player at that time and Manny was seen as a distraction.

[moonslav59]

Arod was the better all around ball player at that time and Manny was seen as a distraction.

 

Not to me.

 

I'm not saying I wouldn't have been high on our chances with ARod and Magglio Ordonez on board, but I always felt Manny was the best hitter I've ever seen.

[Fisk]

Not to me.

 

I'm not saying I wouldn't have been high on our chances with ARod and Magglio Ordonez on board, but I always felt Manny was the best hitter I've ever seen.

Remember how good Ordonez was back then, believe he got hurt that year and was never the same player again.

[Bellhorn04]

It was pure luck that the ARod deal fell through. I believe we only had to come up with another 12 million or something like that and he was ours.

 

What's sometimes forgotten is that we were also going to be trading a pitching prospect to Texas, a lefthander named Lester.

[Fisk]

We can thank Luchinno for opening his mouth and pissing off the Rangers and Arod, that I believe is what killed the deal. Lester at that time was a low A pitcher, that deal would really have changed the history of our franchise.

[moonslav59]

Remember how good Ordonez was back then, believe he got hurt that year and was never the same player again.

 

He did have one more great stretch in him from 2006 to 2008, including his phenomenal 2007 season:

 

.363 54 139 (1.029 OPS)

 

I think he became FA after 2004-same as Nomar.

 

I'll take Manny and OCab over ERod and Magglio.

 

Remember, we got Ellsbury and Lowrie as comp picks for OCab. We later got Melancon for Lworie and Holt for Melcancon. We later got comp pick Kopech for Ellsbury, and MK helped us get Sale.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

We can thank Luchinno for opening his mouth and pissing off the Rangers and Arod, that I believe is what killed the deal.

 

I don't think so. The Sox FO simply balked at the extra amount they had to pay over what the original deal was, according to all reports. They probably figured they could revisit it. They weren't expecting Aaron Boone to injure himself playing basketball and for ARod to be willing to play third base. Like I say, pure luck. The baseball gods had finally decided to give us a break.

[Fisk]

Luchinno spoke out against the players association that halted the negotiating.

[Fisk]

He did have one more great stretch in him from 2006 to 2008, including his phenomenal 2007 season:

 

.363 54 139 (1.029 OPS)

 

I think he became FA after 2004-same as Nomar.

 

I'll take Manny and OCab over ERod and Magglio.

 

Remember, we got Ellsbury and Lowrie as comp picks for OCab. We later got Melancon for Lworie and Holt for Melcancon. We later got comp pick Kopech for Ellsbury, and MK helped us get Sale.

 

 

Wish the comp system stayed the same the comp picks after 04 and 10 were amazing.

[Bellhorn04]

Luchinno spoke out against the players association that halted the negotiating.

 

I think you're right that he complained. The players association wanted to change the deal, but it was only about 12 million more we had to pay if I recall correctly.

[Fisk]

I think you're right that he complained. The players association wanted to change the deal, but it was only about 12 million more we had to pay if I recall correctly.

 

I believe you are right about the 12 million, think the Sox were dead set against it. So once Luchinno spoke out that ended the hopes of further negotiating.

[Spudboy]

Picking up Schilling gave me a lot of reason to expect greatness in '04, but it was really the day we traded Nomar that I felt as sure as ever we were going to win a ring, so I guess I was wrong about feeling that great in January 2004.

 

I feel pretty good right now.

 

What about the Nomar trade gave you those feelings Moon?

 

Addition by subtraction?

[Spudboy]

Not to me.

 

I'm not saying I wouldn't have been high on our chances with ARod and Magglio Ordonez on board, but I always felt Manny was the best hitter I've ever seen.

 

I'm not sure about that but I have always wondered if Manny was the best RHH I have ever seen.

 

I used to love watching him f*** with pitchers.

[moonslav59]

What about the Nomar trade gave you those feelings Moon?

 

Addition by subtraction?

 

The minute I heard we traded for OCab, I drove to my brother-in-laws house and told him, "we just made a trade that was going to win us a ring!". When I told them it was Nomar for Cabrera, he said, "Who?".

 

To me, it was all about the huge defensive upgrade at SS. Nomar was all flash at SS on defense. I've always been a firm believer in great SS defense, as you might know with my rants on Iggy.

 

"Addition by subtraction?" Maybe.

 

I loved the defense of OCab, and his offense was a plus as well.

 

I lost my love for Nomar around 2002.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure about that but I have always wondered if Manny was the best RHH I have ever seen.

 

I used to love watching him f*** with pitchers.

 

I wasn't old enough to see Ted Williams.

 

Manny was the best I ever saw. I loved his approach.

 

As nutty as he was, he was the calmest batter I ever saw.

 

He rarely bitched at the umps. He didn't throw tantrums after a key strikeout. Total command of the strike zone. Maybe the best eye ever.

 

Some complained about him walking in the clutch too much, but many of those walks led to Papi's heroics.

 

All of that contributed to messing with the opposing pitchers, yes. That was all part of his greatness.