A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[User Name]

Harmony, you are pretty f***ing annoying, and I say that without an ounce of malice. Your schtick was old months ago.

[harmony]

Thank you for the feedback.

 

I will keep the comments in mind if I post again.

[moonslav59]

Thank you for the feedback.

 

I will keep the comments in mind if I post again.

 

I respect your opinion and input, harmony, and using WAR and projected WAR in a consistent and unbiased manner has its pluses, but you seem to close the door on anything that doesn't conform to your rigid guidelines.

 

ZIPS and Steamer are often wrong, just like we are.

 

Trying to project what Swihart will become (or any young player) is near impossible.

 

I've been accused of being a stat geek and numbers-only guy (not true), but even I know all numbers and data have context.

 

Nobody is going to argue that Swihart has great numbers over the last 2 years, but there's more to projections and expectations than just what a player has done lately or what these services project. It might help if you acknowledge that sometimes.

 

Sometimes scouts and baseball observers go against the numbers and are right. Sometimes they are wrong, too.

[harmony]

I respect your opinion and input, harmony, and using WAR and projected WAR in a consistent and unbiased manner has its pluses, but you seem to close the door on anything that doesn't conform to your rigid guidelines.

I would note that I provided Bill James' optimistic projections for Blake Swihart after I acknowledged that I was surprised by the pessimistic projections from FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS.

[notin]

I respect your opinion and input, harmony, and using WAR and projected WAR in a consistent and unbiased manner has its pluses, but you seem to close the door on anything that doesn't conform to your rigid guidelines.

 

ZIPS and Steamer are often wrong, just like we are.

 

Trying to project what Swihart will become (or any young player) is near impossible.

 

I've been accused of being a stat geek and numbers-only guy (not true), but even I know all numbers and data have context.

 

Nobody is going to argue that Swihart has great numbers over the last 2 years, but there's more to projections and expectations than just what a player has done lately or what these services project. It might help if you acknowledge that sometimes.

 

Sometimes scouts and baseball observers go against the numbers and are right. Sometimes they are wrong, too.

 

Do I need to break out the WAPM?

[S5Dewey]

He actually might end up being better than Schwarber.

 

First of all, Kyle Schwarber might be the most overrated young player ever. He's basically Mark Reynolds, but with the disadvantage of always hitting into the shift. Barring massive adjustments (like learning to try to hit the ball the other way, or not trying to rip every potential third strike for extra bases), Schwarber is basically an .830-.850OPS, which makes him Jackie Bradley but without the defense. Can Swihart be an .830-.850OPS guy? I think so...

 

True enough. And IMO you just made a case why Swihart will never be good enough to be a starting ML outfielder for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

True enough. And IMO you just made a case why Swihart will never be good enough to be a starting ML outfielder for the Sox.

 

MLB 2016 OPS by positions Swihart might be able to play:

 

.810 DH

.781 1B

.773 3B

.738 LF

.702 C

[harmony]

True enough. And IMO you just made a case why Swihart will never be good enough to be a starting ML outfielder for the Sox.

Even with his defensive shortcomings, Kyle Schwarber is projected with a 2017 WAR of 2.2 in 504 plate appearances as a left fielder (and 2.5 WAR in 544 plate appearances overall), according to FanGraphs Depth Charts:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17#LF

 

Andrew Benintendi is projected with a 2017 WAR of 1.7 in 525 plate appearances as a left fielder (and 1.9 WAR in 560 plate appearances overall):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#LF

 

Steamer and ZiPS project Schwarber with 2017 WAR of 2.7 and 1.5 while projecting Benintendi at 1.4 and 2.1:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16478&position=C/OF

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17901&position=OF

 

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each player, projects Schwarber and Benintendi with 2017 WAR of 3.1 and 1.6, respectively.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=17&lg=all&players=

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=

 

When Benintendi was taken with the seventh pick of the June 2015 draft he was four months younger than Schwarber was when the latter was taken with the fourth pick of the June 2014 draft.

Edited March 1, 2017 by harmony

[Maxbialystock]

MLB 2016 OPS by positions Swihart might be able to play:

 

.810 DH

.781 1B

.773 3B

.738 LF

.702 C

 

Interesting.

[Maxbialystock]

Even with his defensive shortcomings, Kyle Schwarber is projected with a 2017 WAR of 2.2 in 504 plate appearances as a left fielder (and 2.5 WAR in 544 plate appearances overall), according to FanGraphs Depth Charts:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17#LF

 

Andrew Benintendi is projected with a 2017 WAR of 1.7 in 525 plate appearances as a left fielder (and 1.9 WAR in 560 plate appearances overall):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#LF

 

Steamer and ZiPS project Schwarber with 2017 WAR of 2.7 and 1.5 while projecting Benintendi at 1.4 and 2.1:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16478&position=C/OF

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17901&position=OF

 

Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each player, projects Schwarber and Benintendi with 2017 WAR of 3.1 and 1.6, respectively.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=17&lg=all&players=

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=

 

When Benintendi was taken with the seventh pick of the June 2015 draft he was four months younger than Schwarber was when the latter was taken with the fourth pick of the June 2014 draft.

 

Excuse me, but didn't Benintendi actually play 34 games in LF last year and wasn't his WAR .7? Is fangraphs predicting he will have trouble with the curve or something? 1.7 seems low.

[harmony]

Excuse me, but didn't Benintendi actually play 34 games in LF last year and wasn't his WAR .7? Is fangraphs predicting he will have trouble with the curve or something? 1.7 seems low.

Small sample size.

 

Another rookie corner outfielder, Seattle's Mitch Haniger, posted an identical 0.6 fWAR in an identical 34 games last year but FanGraphs Depth Charts projects Haniger with a 2017 WAR of only 1.2 in 490 plate appearances as a right fielder (and 1.2 WAR in 525 plate appearances overall).

[Spudboy]

Harmony needs to post his own Jacko type chart.

 

"Sox prospect will fail. Mariner prospect already sucks."

 

Give the anti-Swihart speak a rest, will you?

[moonslav59]

MLBTR

 

Red Sox southpaw David Price is fully assured a spot on the staff. But he will need to make a slight adaptation to his pitching approach. As ESPN.com’s Buster Olney explains, the league has asked Price (and others with a similar delivery) to make clear to umps whether they are working from the stretch or the windup when there’s a runner on third.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR Chat...

 

4:40 Any possible way Sandy Leon has another good year? BABIP was so unsustainable. Maybe Sox could make a run at Norris?

 

Jason Martinez:

4:42 He won't be as good as he was in his less-than-300-plate-appearance stint from '16. But I think he can still be an above average hitter for a catcher. Paired with Vazquez, I think the Sox are in good shape behind the plate. No need to look for help anytime soon.

[moonslav59]

New scouting report on Dalbec from soxprospects.com...

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/dalbec-bobby.htm

[Fisk]

New scouting report on Dalbec from soxprospects.com...

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/dalbec-bobby.htm

 

That's exciting looking forward to see him progress. Stock way up since draft.

[Nick]

That's exciting looking forward to see him progress. Stock way up since draft.

 

My take away for Dalbec over last 12 months.

 

Was not crazy about pitching, but he did what he was asked in college

Always preferred wooden bat

Changed his stance back to his Cape Cod days, opening up his stance.

 

Offensively, it's just matter of making enough contacts (easier said than done), but there's no denying his power.

 

I know that people here hate to talk about prospects as DH but there's really nothing wrong with it.

 

Travis at 1B and Devers at 3B. Those two need to be in the lineup at some point. Groome is a must at this point. More than likely he's a replacement for either Sale or Porcello. I'm not sure if we can sign both of them when that time comes.

Edited March 2, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

My take away for Dalbec over last 12 months.

 

Was not crazy about pitching, but he did what he was asked in college

Always preferred wooden bat

Changed his stance back to his Cape Cod days, opening up his stance.

 

Offensively, it's just matter of making enough contacts (easier said than done), but there's no denying his power.

 

I know that people here hate to talk about prospects as DH but there's really nothing wrong with it.

 

Travis at 1B and Devers at 3B. Those two need to be in the lineup at some point. Groome is a must at this point. More than likely he's a replacement for either Sale or Porcello. I'm not sure if we can sign both of them when that time comes.

 

Chances are all three from Devers, Travis and Groome will not all be plus players or good enough to lessen the loss of Sale or Porcello or HanRam's bat.

 

If just two come through, maybe Dalbec can take up the slack for the one of three that may not come through.

[moonslav59]

Could this be our 2020 line-up?

1) Beni LF

2) Bogey SS (re-signed)

3) Betts RF

4) JBJ CF

5) Pedey 2B

6) Devers 3B

7) Dalbec DH

8) Travis 1B

9) Vaz-Swi C

 

SP1 Sale (extended)

SP2 Price

SP3 ERod

SP4 Groome

SP5 Wright

 

RP1 ???

RP2 Smith

RP3 Barnes

RP4 Hembree

RP5 Johnson/Owens

RP6 Worman

RP7 Scott/ Martin/ TBall/ Ysla/ Velazquez

 

 

[cp176]

Could this be our 2020 line-up?

1) Beni LF

2) Bogey SS (re-signed)

3) Betts RF

4) JBJ CF

5) Pedey 2B

6) Devers 3B

7) Dalbec DH

8) Travis 1B

9) Vaz-Swi C

 

SP1 Sale (extended)

SP2 Price

SP3 ERod

SP4 Groome

SP5 Wright

 

RP1 ???

RP2 Smith

RP3 Barnes

RP4 Hembree

RP5 Johnson/Owens

RP6 Worman

RP7 Scott/ Martin/ TBall/ Ysla/ Velazquez

 

 

 

Is there going to be a question going forward about Devers and fitness. Word is that that if he is going to play third, he is going to have to lose weight. Don't like reading something like that. Sooner or later - maybe sooner- Sam Travis is going to be in that lineup.

[moonslav59]

Is there going to be a question going forward about Devers and fitness. Word is that that if he is going to play third, he is going to have to lose weight. Don't like reading something like that. Sooner or later - maybe sooner- Sam Travis is going to be in that lineup.

 

According to Soxprospects.com, Devers took a big step forward on defense last year.

 

If he doesn't work out at 3B, he should be fine at 1B, but then that squeezes Travis.

 

...he showed fine defensive instincts and ability for his age in my short look at him this year.

 

Physical Description: Well built with a large lower half. Physically mature for someone his age. Room to fill out in his upper body. Not a great athlete. Will need to watch his conditioning as he matures.

 

Field: Doesn’t look pretty, but can make the plays at third base. Limited range and on the stiff and rigid side when fielding ground balls. Will be given every chance to stick at third, but could move across the diamond to first base eventually.

Edited March 2, 2017 by moonslav59

[cp176]

So nothing to the latest Bradford report that he needs to "shed pounds" if he is going to be playing either first or third. Ultimately I don't think it will matter what Devers does as far as Travis is concerned. Travis is going to be in the lineup at some point soon I think. He is just a flat out good hitter.

[mvp 78]

Is there going to be a question going forward about Devers and fitness. Word is that that if he is going to play third, he is going to have to lose weight. Don't like reading something like that. Sooner or later - maybe sooner- Sam Travis is going to be in that lineup.

 

Devers was the Sox MiLB defensive player of the year last year. What are you talking about?

[mvp 78]

So nothing to the latest Bradford report that he needs to "shed pounds" if he is going to be playing either first or third. Ultimately I don't think it will matter what Devers does as far as Travis is concerned. Travis is going to be in the lineup at some point soon I think. He is just a flat out good hitter.

 

And at a younger age, Devers is a flat out better hitter than Travis.

 

Bradford isn't the greatest beat writer around either...

[mvp 78]

And if Bradford really thought it was an issue, why not write about it here: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2017/02/23/want-know-who-red-sox-are-truly-placing-bets-

[cp176]

Travis will outhit Devers.

With respect to Devers and fitness, I haven't seen him. I'm just repeating what I read this morning. Actually it isn't anything new. I've read it before. Personally i don't believe much of what I read in the cycle of 24 hour news.

[cp176]

And if Bradford really thought it was an issue, why not write about it here: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2017/02/23/want-know-who-red-sox-are-truly-placing-bets-

 

Is this a question? I got no answer for you. He might even make s*** up. Wouldn't that be something else huh.

[cp176]

Devers was the Sox MiLB defensive player of the year last year. What are you talking about?

 

 

I think you answered your question when you mentioned Bradford's name. what do you think- he make it up or what?

[mvp 78]

But where did he write it? I've looked at all his recent articles and twitter postings and didn't see it.

[cp176]

But where did he write it? I've looked at all his recent articles and twitter postings and didn't see it.

 

ok - now I got it. Read it this morning from weei web sight . I would copy and paste the link for you but I am unfit technologically. I'm going back to see if I can find it again.