A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[cp176]

With his swing he will square up a mistake and hit it out from time to time. If he gets a lot of at bats this year, and we are hoping for that, I wouldn't be surprised if he exceeds 15 Hrs.

 

My guess would be that he tops out in the low 20's. He is just going to be a solid hitter for a long time I hope.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

With Blake Swihart facing a tough path to playing time as a catcher, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald wonders why the Red Sox didn’t experiment with Swihart at third base. Swihart has long been cited for his athletic ability and his potential to play all over the diamond, and the Sox are facing uncertainty at the hot corner as Pablo Sandoval attempts to revive his career. As president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski explained, however, the Red Sox have Rafael Devers as the top future prospect at third, and Swihart is more valuable as a long-term piece for Boston if he can stick behind the plate. “I think Blake has a chance to be, with the type of offensive capabilities and athletic capabilities he has, if he can make that transition on a permanent basis to catching, that’s a real plus for the organization….Then as we go into the future, if he can be our catcher for us, he can be our catcher for a lengthy time period,” Dombrowski said.

[Fisk]

MLBTR...

 

With Blake Swihart facing a tough path to playing time as a catcher, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald wonders why the Red Sox didn’t experiment with Swihart at third base. Swihart has long been cited for his athletic ability and his potential to play all over the diamond, and the Sox are facing uncertainty at the hot corner as Pablo Sandoval attempts to revive his career. As president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski explained, however, the Red Sox have Rafael Devers as the top future prospect at third, and Swihart is more valuable as a long-term piece for Boston if he can stick behind the plate. “I think Blake has a chance to be, with the type of offensive capabilities and athletic capabilities he has, if he can make that transition on a permanent basis to catching, that’s a real plus for the organization….Then as we go into the future, if he can be our catcher for us, he can be our catcher for a lengthy time period,” Dombrowski said.

 

I have mixed feelings on this, understand if he becomes a decent defensive catcher(which I think he will)that bat will be a big asset. Also realize he could be valuable as a fall back option for Pablo.

[Dojji]

With his bat so far ahead of his glove there just becomes a point where the best possible use for Swihart is in the majors regardless of position. Holding out for a 9/10 value at catcher when he could be a 7.5/10 third baseman and we're at risk of having a 2/10 or at best a 5/10 there... doesn't make a ton of sense in the short term.

 

Put it this way -- if they were ever really determined to make a catcher of Swihart they would never have moved him off the position in the first place. Now that they have it would be the height od stupidity to try to force that genie back into the bottle now.

[moonslav59]

I have mixed feelings on this, understand if he becomes a decent defensive catcher(which I think he will)that bat will be a big asset. Also realize he could be valuable as a fall back option for Pablo.

 

It's a tough situation and choice to make.

 

I don't think 3B is a position Swihart can learn in 10 games, like when they moved Bogey from SS to 3B or Swihart to LF.

 

He needs time to develop as a catcher and see if he can become what we hope he can as a catcher. The time window is unknown.

 

We may need a 3Bman before Devers is ready, and if Swihart can be the hitter many of us think he can be, a solution for 3B might be lost due to the catcher commitment.

 

I think Sox management is playing it correctly. Swihart's greatest value, in theory, is as a plus catcher. We are going to give Pablo every chance to try and earn some of his contract. Hopefully, the timing will work out, but certainly there's a chance of a "what if?" here.

 

I'm happy with the choice made. If Pablo can come through, Swihart will get the time he needs to show us once and for all, if he can improve his catcher defense.

 

[moonslav59]

With his bat so far ahead of his glove there just becomes a point where the best possible use for Swihart is in the majors regardless of position. Holding out for a 9/10 value at catcher when he could be a 7.5/10 third baseman and we're at risk of having a 2/10 or at best a 5/10 there... doesn't make a ton of sense in the short term.

 

Put it this way -- if they were ever really determined to make a catcher of Swihart they would never have moved him off the position in the first place. Now that they have it would be the height od stupidity to try to force that genie back into the bottle now.

 

I think the plan was always going to be Vaz at catcher, if and until Swihart could prove he was better.

 

They moved him off catcher because of a high need for a LF'er. Had they not needed a LF'er last year, Swi would have caught in AAA the rest of 2016.

 

I get your point though, if they really believed in him as a catcher, they could have just acquired a cheap LF'er, like the did with de Aza, and kept his plan as a catcher intact.

 

Sometimes the big club needs just trumps the plans they have for prospects... like moving Bogey to 3B to help us win a ring.

 

[mvp 78]

Swihart should play catcher for all of 2017 in Pawtucket. If it doesn't work out, move him next offseason.

[moonslav59]

Swihart should play catcher for all of 2017 in Pawtucket. If it doesn't work out, move him next offseason.

 

That makes the most sense, but if Pablo struggles, or we need help in LF again, we may be forced to give him a try at another position, especially, if he is hitting well at AAA. If he's not, we might as well just keep him learning defense at the catcher position.

 

At some point, coaches might realize he's a lost cause at catcher. That could be mid season. I doubt that happens, but it could.

[mvp 78]

That makes the most sense, but if Pablo struggles, or we need help in LF again, we may be forced to give him a try at another position, especially, if he is hitting well at AAA. If he's not, we might as well just keep him learning defense at the catcher position.

 

At some point, coaches might realize he's a lost cause at catcher. That could be mid season. I doubt that happens, but it could.

 

If Pablo struggles, Holt can play 3B for a while. Watch and see if Travis plays any 3B during ST.

[cp176]

That makes the most sense, but if Pablo struggles, or we need help in LF again, we may be forced to give him a try at another position, especially, if he is hitting well at AAA. If he's not, we might as well just keep him learning defense at the catcher position.

 

At some point, coaches might realize he's a lost cause at catcher. That could be mid season. I doubt that happens, but it could.

 

I'll say again, I think that there is more to this than we know. if they thought that for sure all was well going forward with either Leon or Vazquez, using Swihart solely as a catcher if the bat is ready would seem foolish. He is their big contingency plan. Either that or they don't think that his bat is as ready as some people who post here think that it is.

[mvp 78]

I'll say again, I think that there is more to this than we know. if they thought that for sure all was well going forward with either Leon or Vazquez, using Swihart solely as a catcher if the bat is ready would seem foolish. He is their big contingency plan. Either that or they don't think that his bat is as ready as some people who post here think that it is.

 

His bat is ready to be a C, not a 3B or LF.

[moonslav59]

If Pablo struggles, Holt can play 3B for a while. Watch and see if Travis plays any 3B during ST.

 

Holt should only be used for a short interval, perhaps, only long enough for Swihart to learn the position or for a trade to be made (Todd Frazier?).

[moonslav59]

I'll say again, I think that there is more to this than we know. if they thought that for sure all was well going forward with either Leon or Vazquez, using Swihart solely as a catcher if the bat is ready would seem foolish. He is their big contingency plan. Either that or they don't think that his bat is as ready as some people who post here think that it is.

 

They could also be hoping to build value, so they can trade one of their catchers--maybe even Swi himself.

[moonslav59]

His bat is ready to be a C, not a 3B or LF.

 

It can't be much worse than what our 3Bmen hit last year (.686 OPS).

 

The MLB 3B OPS was just .783. It's not unrealistic to think Swihart could come close to that.

 

[cp176]

His bat is ready to be a C, not a 3B or LF.

 

Many people think that his bat is just ready

[moonslav59]

Let's just hope Pablo gives us over .750 and average defense, and we won't have to mess with Swi's catcher development plan.

[moonslav59]

From MLBTR....

 

The cost for the Red Sox to purchase right-hander Hector Velazquez from the Mexican League last week was just $30K, reports Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. Velazquez’s pact with the Red Sox includes escalators based on consecutive days he spends on Boston’s roster, and one general manager told Drellich it’s the first such deal he has seen. Red Sox front office members Allard Baird, Jared Banner, Marcus Cuellar and Edgar Perez were all involved in the signing, per Drellich. Velazquez is familiar with Cuellar, notes Drellich, which helped the Sox beat out other teams (including the Yankees) for his services.

[mvp 78]

It can't be much worse than what our 3Bmen hit last year (.686 OPS).

 

The MLB 3B OPS was just .783. It's not unrealistic to think Swihart could come close to that.

 

 

Well, his OPS in 2015 was only .711. It's also not unrealistic to think that he wouldn't hit close to .783 after missing a full season due to injury.

[harmony]

Many people think that his bat is just ready

In 383 MLB plate appearances, Blake Swihart has a career OPS of .714 with a likely unsustainable BABIP of .357.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

[notin]

His bat is ready to be a C, not a 3B or LF.

 

There have been plenty of LF and 3B thst have had worse bats.

 

If Sandoval flops, I like the idea of moving Swihart to 3b...

[moonslav59]

Well, his OPS in 2015 was only .711. It's also not unrealistic to think that he wouldn't hit close to .783 after missing a full season due to injury.

 

No, it's not unrealistic, but not because of his career .714 OPS in just 383 PAs.

 

He's got a .758 minor league OPS in 1466 PAs. It's not unreasonable to see .700 or .750 or .780.

 

I wouldn't project .780, but I would certainly project he will do better than our .686 OPS at 3B last year, and I'm near certain he can hit better than Pablo vs LHPs. If he were called up to play or platoon at 3B, he could also get some reps catching or at DH vs some RHPs.

 

It's not a certainty, but I think Swihart could hit better than Pablo vs LHPs, Moreland vs RHPs or Holt vs any handed pitcher.

 

He won't get called up to play 3B, 1B or DH, if he's hitting .710 at AAA.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

In 383 MLB plate appearances, Blake Swihart has a career OPS of .714 with a likely unsustainable BABIP of .357.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

 

Come on harmony. How about some context.

 

His first season, he was rushed to the majors as a rookie. Last year, he got 74 PAs.

 

How can anything definitive be taken from that.

 

He could easily have a .320 BAbip this year and a .790 OPS.

[moonslav59]

There have been plenty of LF and 3B thst have had worse bats.

 

If Sandoval flops, I like the idea of moving Swihart to 3b...

 

Swihart on the 25 man roster also makes PH'ing for one or both of catchers easier to do, since the fear of ending up with nobody who can catch is gone.

 

He could also offer depth in LF and possibly at 1B, but I doubt we try to teach him 2 positions mid season.

[Slasher9]

Swihart should play catcher for all of 2017 in Pawtucket. If it doesn't work out, move him next offseason.

 

IN.

[harmony]

Come on harmony. How about some context.

 

His first season, he was rushed to the majors as a rookie. Last year, he got 74 PAs.

 

How can anything definitive be taken from that.

 

He could easily have a .320 BAbip this year and a .790 OPS.

Drawing upon his 383 MLB plate appearances and 1,466 minor league plate appearances, FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS project Blake Swihart with 2017 OPS of .693, .710 and .676, respectively, despite solid BABIP of .321, .321 and .320:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

Edited February 27, 2017 by harmony

[Fisk]

Come on harmony. How about some context.

 

His first season, he was rushed to the majors as a rookie. Last year, he got 74 PAs.

 

How can anything definitive be taken from that.

 

He could easily have a .320 BAbip this year and a .790 OPS.

 

Harmony I'm sure has never actually seen him play, he's basing everything off projections which are wrong quite a bit. You just see his swing and you know he's eventually going to be a good hitter.

 

You are totally right he was rushed to the majors in 15, and actually had a very good second half with the bat.

[Fisk]

Well, his OPS in 2015 was only .711. It's also not unrealistic to think that he wouldn't hit close to .783 after missing a full season due to injury.

 

His second half ops was much higher in 15 once he got comfortable I believe over 800.

[mvp 78]

There have been plenty of LF and 3B thst have had worse bats.

 

 

Just no.

[mvp 78]

No, it's not unrealistic, but not because of his career .714 OPS in just 383 PAs.

 

He's got a .758 minor league OPS in 1466 PAs. It's not unreasonable to see .700 or .750 or .780.

 

I wouldn't project .780, but I would certainly project he will do better than our .686 OPS at 3B last year, and I'm near certain he can hit better than Pablo vs LHPs. If he were called up to play or platoon at 3B, he could also get some reps catching or at DH vs some RHPs.

 

It's not a certainty, but I think Swihart could hit better than Pablo vs LHPs, Moreland vs RHPs or Holt vs any handed pitcher.

 

He won't get called up to play 3B, 1B or DH, if he's hitting .710 at AAA.

 

 

 

 

You would expect his OPS to be higher than his Minor League numbers AFTER a year spent on the DL?

[mvp 78]

Come on harmony. How about some context.

 

His first season, he was rushed to the majors as a rookie. Last year, he got 74 PAs.

 

How can anything definitive be taken from that.

 

He could easily have a .320 BAbip this year and a .790 OPS.

 

It's more logical than pie in the sky like dreaming that he'll hit better than he ever has before in his lifetime.