A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Spudboy]

and by no means was that winning based only or solely on the 2004 core. Yes the core slowly declines from 2007 on but I think Theo was brilliant in slowing down entropy and keeping the team competitive for longer than we honestly should have expected. And it's beyond debate that Theo was brilliant in 2007 in particular

 

That was what gave us a surprise window in 2013 as the last gasp of the 2007 core

 

Did you mean to type atrophy or entropy?

[Spudboy]

After the Nomar trade:

3b went from Mueller to Lowell (good call)

1b went from Millar to Youk (good call)

SS went from OCab to miscellaneoud (OCab became a journeyman so it's not a big loss)

2b went from Bellhorn to Pedroia (remains to be seen if this was a good idea)

LF stayed with Manny until 2008 when Manny forced his way out of town (can't blame Theo here)

CF went from Johnny Damon to Coco Crisp/TEllsbury (good call)

RF went from Trot to JD Drew (good call)

C stayed with Tek until 2011

 

He dumped Pedro and Lowe when other GM's may have kept them on for nostalgia. He found a suitable replacement at closer.

 

Theo kept trying to bring in high priced talent while consistently adding young talent from the farm system. I really can't fault Theo for much of anything from 2005 - 2011. He should probably still be the GM today, but LL had JH's ear and they dumped the wrong guy.

 

Good post.

 

Did Pedroia take your lunch money or something?

[mvp 78]

Good post.

 

Did Pedroia take your lunch money or something?

 

They went from having a replacement level player who banged the ballgirl (the cover of the Tessie record, I believe) to the greatest 2b in team history. I'd say it's too close to call.

[a700hitter]

They went from having a replacement level player who banged the ballgirl (the cover of the Tessie record, I believe) to the greatest 2b in team history. I'd say it's too close to call.

Bobby Doerr might have an argument. Some of our posters did see him play.

[mvp 78]

Bobby Doerr might have an argument. Some of our posters did see him play.

 

Which ballgirl did he bang?

[a700hitter]

which ballgirl did he bang?

lol!

[mvp 78]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtml

 

JAWS gives the edge to Pedroia at the moment.

[moonslav59]

After the Nomar trade:

3b went from Mueller to Lowell (good call)

1b went from Millar to Youk (good call)

SS went from OCab to miscellaneoud (OCab became a journeyman so it's not a big loss)

2b went from Bellhorn to Pedroia (remains to be seen if this was a good idea)

LF stayed with Manny until 2008 when Manny forced his way out of town (can't blame Theo here)

CF went from Johnny Damon to Coco Crisp/TEllsbury (good call)

RF went from Trot to JD Drew (good call)

C stayed with Tek until 2011

 

He dumped Pedro and Lowe when other GM's may have kept them on for nostalgia. He found a suitable replacement at closer.

 

Theo kept trying to bring in high priced talent while consistently adding young talent from the farm system. I really can't fault Theo for much of anything from 2005 - 2011. He should probably still be the GM today, but LL had JH's ear and they dumped the wrong guy.

 

Theo did not acquire Youk & Pedey after the Nomar trade.

 

Our SSs after OCab were disasterous- not "no big loss".

 

Crisp never reached expectations and was a drop off from Damon. We got Ellsbury for OCab, and I mentioned that as a qualified gain post Nomar.

 

Letting Pedro & Lowe go was the right call.

 

Theo did good after Nomar.

 

Again, I'll bring the list out tonight.

 

A lot was good. A lot was okay.

 

A lot was not good.

[mvp 78]

A lot was good. A lot was okay.

 

A lot was not good.

 

That's a lot of a lot's.

[moonslav59]

That's a lot of a lot's.

 

He made a lot of moves. Lots and lots!

 

[Fisk]

Overall I believe Theo was a very good GM for us , but he definitely had some bumps in the road. His drafts from 06-10 were rough. but he was the GM for two World Series and his 11 draft could go down as one of the greatest.

[Bellhorn04]

Overall I believe Theo was a very good GM for us , but he definitely had some bumps in the road. His drafts from 06-10 were rough. but he was the GM for two World Series and his 11 draft could go down as one of the greatest.

 

And he validated how good he is with the Cubs.

[Fisk]

Has done a great job with the Cubs. Broke the team down to nothing and built a world championship team in 5 years.

[harmony]

PECOTA projects the Red Sox as AL East champs with 90 wins (and the Cleveland Guardians and Houston Astros as divisional champs with 92 and 93 wins, respectively):

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

[notin]

They went from having a replacement level player who banged the ballgirl (the cover of the Tessie record, I believe) to the greatest 2b in team history. I'd say it's too close to call.

 

Mark Loretta, an All Star who never banged a ball girl, preceded Pedroia at 2b

[User Name]

Mark Loretta, an All Star who never banged a ball girl, preceded Pedroia at 2b

 

He was .706 OPS, 80 OPS+, 0.5 FWAR hitter though, so he was pretty much a replacement level player production-wise.

[moonslav59]

I think think Theo is the greatest GM of my lifetime. Some things Branch Rickey did pushed the envelope in ways that are hard to quantify and compare from eras before my time.

 

Theo did a fantastic job bringing Dan D's team to the next level and then keeping us at a high level for many years. I'm so thankful he was out GM. He did such a fantastic job his first few years that it is not a negative thing to say his middle and later years were not as great as the earlier ones.

 

I was very careful to say that some could argue those years of acquisitions and drafting were mediocre. I would not take that position. I think he did better than Average after the Nomar trade. I also pointed out that some of the comp picks Theo drafted after Nomar were gained from players he acquired before the Nomar trade. My argument was that those players could be at least partially credited to the pre-Nomar trade ledger, but if posters don't want to count that, it's fine with me.

 

I couldn't find the file that broke down the major deals by Theo. It went into great detail on every move. I found this list of significant to major deals made by each GM from Dan D up to and including Ben (I was more selective of "major deals" prior to 2013. If anyone notices a significant deal I missed, feel free to comment.):

 

Ben (10/25/11 to 8/18/15)D:

Rich Hill, Jean Machi FA

PTBNL for Napoli and Mujica

Rutledge for Vic & cash

Leon for cash

Robbie Ross for Ranaudo

Hanigan for Middlebrooks

Varvaro for Kurcz

Miley for de la Rosa & Webster

Porcello for Cespedes & Alex Wilson

Ogando, Masterson, Sandoval & Ramirez FA

Rusney Castillo Int’l FA

Cespedes & Comp Pick for Lester, Gomes & cash

Kelly & Craig for Lackey, Litrell & cash

E Rodriguez for Andrew Miller

Marco Hernandez for Doubront

H Hembree & E Escobar for Peavy & cash

S Drew (II) FA

Napoli, Mujica, Layne & Pierzynski FA

Peavy for Iglesias & Montas

Mike Carp for cash

Napoli, Victorino, Dempster, Uehara, Gomes & Drew (I) FA

Holt & Hanrahan forMelancon & others

John Farrell for Aviles

De la Rosa, Webster, Loney for AGon, Crawford,Beckett, Punto & cash

Breslow for Albers and Podsednik

Wright for Lars Anderson

Lillibridge & Z Stewart for Youkilis

Podsednik for cash

Marlon Byrd for M Bowden

Cody Ross, Shoppach, R Hill FA

Mortenson for Scutaro

Bailey & R Sweeney for Reddick & others

Melancon for Lowrie & Weiland

Duarte for Marwin Gonzalez

 

Theo (11/25/02 to 10/21/11):

E Bedard for S Fife & others

Aceves, Okajima II, Jenks, D Wheeler, A Miller II, R Hill, Albers FA

Crawford, VTek III FA

AGon for Rizzo, Kelly & Fuentes

B Wagner for C Carter

Bogaerts & Iglesias Amateur or Int’l FA

VMart for Masterson & Hagadone

Kotchman for Adam LaRoche

A LaRoche fo Strickland

Smoltz, Penney, Saito, VTek II, Baldelli, N Green, Josh Bard FA

Tazawa FA

Ramon Ramirez for C Crisp

Paul Byrd for Mickey Hall

Jason Bay for Manny Ramirez, Craig Hansen & Brandon Moss

D Aardsma for Willy Mota

B Colon, Timlin, M Lowell & C Schilling FA

Daniel Nava for $1 (FA)

Sean Danielson for Joel Pineiro

Eric Gagne for K Gabbard, David Murphy & E Beltre

JD Drew, Lugo, Okajima, A Castillo, J Pineiro FA

J Lopez for Adam Stern

Kottares for David Wells

Mirabelli for Cla Meredith & Josh Bard

Willy Mo Pena for B Arroyo

JT Snow, Breslow, Alex Gonzo, R Seanez FA

Coco Crisp & D Riske for A Marte, Shoppach & G Moto

M Loretta for Mirabelli

Beckett & Lowell for HanRam, A Sanchez and others

Doubront amateur FA

Extended Schilling (was hurt that year)

Renteria, M Clement, Wade Miller, D Wells, Olerud FA_______

O Cabrera & Mientkiewicz for Garciaparra

Foulke, Reese, F Castillo FA

Bellhorn for ???

Schilling for Fossum, Jorge de la Rosa & B Lyon

Merloni for Miniel

Brandon Lyon & Jeff Suppan for Freddy Sanchez & cash

S Williamson for Dumatrait

Ortiz, Mueller, R. Mendoza, Timlin, C Fox FA

Todd Walker for Thigpen and Blanco

Je Giambi for J Hancock

 

Dan D (1994 to 2002)

Tony Clark & Brandon Lyons off waivers

A Embree for Brad Baker & D Giese

R Henderson, J Burkett, Baerga, Buford, M Coleman FA

Reese for Hatteberg

Hermanson for 3 players

D Oliver for Carl Everett

U Urbina for Tomo Ohka

Anibal Sanchez & Jorge de la Rosa Amateur & Int’l FA

Manny Ramirez FA

Nomo, Wakefield, F Castillo, P Schourek FA

Chris Stynes for Donnie sadler & M Coleman

D Bichette for Reitsma & Curtice

Mike Lansing & Rolando Arrojo for Jeff Frye, Brian Rose & J Wasdin

Hanley Ramirez Amateur FA

Jeff Fassero FA

Carl Everett for Adam Everett

Rod Beck for M Guthrie

M Portugal, Offerman FA

Mike Stanley for Peter Munro

Pedro Martinez for Carl Pavano & Tony Armas Jr.

Tony Armas Jr. for Mike Stanley

VTek & D Lowe for H Slocumb

S Avery & Saberhagen FA

Darren Bragg for Jamie Moyer

Tom Gordon FA

Rick Aguilera for Frankie Rodriguez

Wakefield, Reggie Jefferson, FA

Troy O’Leary off waivers

 

Theo Draft Picks:

(Mike Port drafted Lester & B Moss in 2002.)

 

2003:

1) D Murphy

1S Matt Murton/ 2S A Alvarez (C Floyd comp)

4) Papelbon

 

2004

(No 1st due to K Foulke signing)

2) Pedroia

 

2005

(Lost our pick for signing Renteria)

For OCab: 1 Ellsbury/2 Lowrie

For DLowe: 1 C Hansen/2 M Bowden

For Pedro: 1 Buchholz/2 J Egan

_________________________________

2006:

1) Jason Place (27th pick)

For Damon: 1) D Bard/1S K Johnson

For Mueller: 1S Caleb Clay/3 A Bates

2) J Masterson

17) J Reddick

 

2007:

(Lost our pick for signing J Lugo.)

For Gonzo: 1S N Hagadone

For Foulke: 1S Ryan Dent

5) Middlebrooks

6) A Rizzo

 

2008:

1) Casey Kelly (30)

For Gagne: 1S Bryan Price

For Morris: 3 S Fife

9) C Vazquez

 

2009:

1) Reymond Fuentes (28)

2) Alex Wilson

 

2010:

(Lost our first for signing Lackey)

For B Wagner: 1 K Vitek (20)/A Ranaudo (39)

For J Bay: 1 B Brentz (36)/2 Workman

 

______________________________________

 

2011 (A great draft aided by comp picks)

For VMart: 1 Barnes (19)/Owens (36)

For Beltre: 1 Swihart (26)/ JBJ (40)

5) M Betts (172)

9) T Shaw

 

International Signings:

04-05: Doubront

05-06: Y Navarro, Chih-Hsien Chiang

06-07: Dice K, Okajima, S Pimental, O tejada, E Beltre

07-08: R Mendea

08-09: Tazawa, W Cueves, Oscar Perez

09-10: X Bogaerts, J Iglesias, F Montas

10-11: J Aro, A. Ibarra, Juan Carlos Linares

Edited February 8, 2017 by moonslav59

[a700hitter]

I think think Theo is the greatest GM of my lifetime. Some things Branch Rickey did pushed the envelope in ways that are hard to quantify and compare from eras before my time.

Yes, but maybe "not all that great", right?

Oh yeah, you are very clear and consistent.

[Bellhorn04]

moon, you just had to put up that screen-chewing, eyeball-overwhelming monstrosity again, didn't you LOL

[moonslav59]

Oh yeah, you are very clear and consistent.

 

What a clown! Another example of your jumbled mind.

 

I never said Theo was "not that great at all".

 

And, you claim you have reading comprehension skills.

 

LMAO!

[moonslav59]

moon, you just had to put up that screen-chewing, eyeball-overwhelming monstrosity again, didn't you LOL

 

Lots and lots of transactions.

 

Lots.

[a700hitter]

What a clown! Another example of your jumbled mind.

 

I never said Theo was "not that great at all".

 

And, you claim you have reading comprehension skills.

 

LMAO!

And MoonBat, you are so clear that you have to go on for pages blathering to explain yourself every day.

[mvp 78]

Mark Loretta, an All Star who never banged a ball girl, preceded Pedroia at 2b

 

I'm not going to judge the entirety of Theo's Sox career by 2005-2006.

[mvp 78]

Also, http://archive.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2006/04/18/punctuation_mark/

 

I liked Loretta AND Graffanino. They were both at least as good as Bellhorn.

[moonslav59]

And MoonBat, you are so clear that you have to go on for pages blathering to explain yourself every day.

 

Tell me in how this statement:

 

"I was sad to see him go, but after the Nomar Trade, he wasn't really all that great" negates the statement that "Theo is the best GM in my lifetime".

 

One cannot be great for a period of time, but still be great (or the best) in a larger period of time (which includes his time with the Cubs). It is possible.

 

Your brain must be locked into some sort of spastic swirling alternate universe.

 

I can't stop laughing. I almost spit out my mac'n'cheese on this one.

 

[a700hitter]

Tell me in how this statement:

 

"I was sad to see him go, but after the Nomar Trade, he wasn't really all that great" negates the statement that "Theo is the best GM in my lifetime".

 

One cannot be great for a period of time, but still be great (or the best) in a larger period of time (which includes his time with the Cubs). It is possible.

 

Your brain must be locked into some sort of spastic swirling alternate universe.

 

I can't stop laughing. I almost spit out my mac'n'cheese on this one.

 

Keep laughing. It wasn't me that challenged you on it. Mac'n Cheese on the screen would be an improvement over many of your posts.

[moonslav59]

Some obsrvations....

 

On the drafts: I know winning lowers your place in the draft, but the draft picks from 2006 to 2010 (5 years), except for Rizzo, were seriously worse than 2003-2005 and 2011.

 

I know Theo took some grief for letting VMart and Beltre walk, but their comp picks really helped stock the farm for Ben & Co.

 

I several Theo moves after the Nomar trade. The Beltre signing was genius. The VMart trade was a steal.

 

I liked the Crisp trade, but he never really developed his bat like I thought he would.

 

No one can fault him for extending Schilling, but his health went down hill that winter.

 

The JD Drew signing was one big long debate.

 

The Smoltz-Penny signings nearly killed me, but I think it was the CC signing that maybe left a sour taste in my mouth near the end of his tenure here.

 

I hated to see him go. No GM ever did what he did with my beloved Sox since I started following them in the early 70's.

 

To see what he has done with the Cubs in such a short time is nothing short of stupendous. The Cubs rise to the top and WS victory cemented the legend.

 

[moonslav59]

It wasn't me that challenged you on it.

 

You're trippin' !

[a700hitter]

You're trippin' !

Pardon me. I mistook this for an explanation.

 

I said "not all that great", and you guys are acting like I said Theo sucked.

[moonslav59]

Pardon me. I mistook this for an explanation.

 

Figures.

 

It was.