A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[harmony]

Providence Journal beat reporter Brian MacPherson writes about Hanley Ramirez and this offseason's class of righthanded hitters:

 

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20170128/ramirez-may-be-too-rich-luxury-for-red-sox

 

As a side note, over the past three seasons Hanley Ramirez has an OPS+ of 117 in 380 games while Seattle's Danny Valencia has an OPS+ of 116 in 393 games over the same period.

 

Valencia and Ramirez are defensively challenged righthanded hitters born nine months apart.

 

The slightly younger Valencia has a three-year fWAR of 3.7 while Ramirez has a three-year fWAR of 4.2. ZiPS, FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and Steamer600 project 2017 WAR of 1.4, 0.6, 0.4 and 0.5 for Valencia and 1.8, 2.0, 1.6 and 1.8 for Ramirez. Valencia will earn $5.55 million in his final year of team control while Ramirez will earn $22.75 million in the third year of his four-year contract with a vesting fifth-year option.

 

For the Mariners, Valencia is projected to be on the short end of platoon at first base and back up Kyle Seager at third base:

 

http://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-seattle-mariners/

Edited January 30, 2017 by harmony

[Spudboy]

Hanley.

 

Money well spent.

 

lol

[moonslav59]

We never paid Papi $22.5M to DH, and that's what HanRam essentially is- a DH.

 

I'm glad we have him in our line-up as Papi retires, but we certainly could have saved money and done better in this winter's FA market with big RH'd bats.

[Dojji]

So Papi was underpaid, that's cool

[mvp 78]

We never paid Papi $22.5M to DH, and that's what HanRam essentially is- a DH.

 

I'm glad we have him in our line-up as Papi retires, but we certainly could have saved money and done better in this winter's FA market with big RH'd bats.

 

Thanks Ben!

[moonslav59]

Ben's weak spot was certainly his FA signings.

 

I will say though, that a high percentage of big signings fail - many from day one.

 

That's not an excuse. Ben sucked at FA signings.

[moonslav59]

Have the Sox and Abad agreed to terms yet? No way would I pay him the projected $2M arb cost.

 

Sox Pen vs LHBs in 2016 (OPS against):

.413 Thornburg (.531 career) with Milwaukee

.461 Abad

.500 R Scott

.514 Kimbrel

.545 R Ross

.741 Barnes

.890 Hembree

.899 J Kelly

 

 

[moonslav59]

Assuming we keep Bogey beyond his current team control years, here's what our 2020 line-up might look like:

 

1) Beni LF

2) Travis 1B

3) Betts RF

4) JBJ CF

5) Bogey SS

6) Pedey 2B

7) Devers 3B

8) Swi-Vaz C

9) Dalbec DH

 

[Fisk]

Have the Sox and Abad agreed to terms yet? No way would I pay him the projected $2M arb cost.

 

Sox Pen vs LHBs in 2016 (OPS against):

.413 Thornburg (.531 career) with Milwaukee

.461 Abad

.500 R Scott

.514 Kimbrel

.545 R Ross

.741 Barnes

.890 Hembree

.899 J Kelly

 

 

They had there Arb hearing today.

[sk7326]

Ben's weak spot was certainly his FA signings.

 

I will say though, that a high percentage of big signings fail - many from day one.

 

That's not an excuse. Ben sucked at FA signings.

 

To some extent ... as you know, the winner's curse infects FA. That and the age of the average UFA makes it a difficult pool to jump into for longer term help.

 

If you look at some of the biggies

 

Sandoval - a shaky contract when it was awarded, the player has more than lived down to the pessimism

Ramirez - a pretty good contract considering. He was lousy the first year, and bounced back last year. Has been a mixed bag, but I'd happily do it again largely. (although I'd have put him in the infield from the jump)

Victorino - an MVP-caliber one season, which paid for the entire contract more or less. Probably a net loss but not a large one and flags fly forever.

Uehara - wish he were more durable, but 2013 was magic, and when he was relatively healthy he was always good.

AJ Pierzynski - he was awful. But clearly part of the intent was to have a 1-year stopgap because of how much catching they had in the org. So no harm.

 

There were lots of relievers otherwise, and they do what relievers do ... kind of throw your hands up there

[moonslav59]

They had there Arb hearing today.

 

Wow, we actually made it to an arb hearing before settling?

 

How long's it been?

[moonslav59]

To some extent ... as you know, the winner's curse infects FA. That and the age of the average UFA makes it a difficult pool to jump into for longer term help.

 

If you look at some of the biggies

 

Sandoval - a shaky contract when it was awarded, the player has more than lived down to the pessimism

Ramirez - a pretty good contract considering. He was lousy the first year, and bounced back last year. Has been a mixed bag, but I'd happily do it again largely. (although I'd have put him in the infield from the jump)

Victorino - an MVP-caliber one season, which paid for the entire contract more or less. Probably a net loss but not a large one and flags fly forever.

Uehara - wish he were more durable, but 2013 was magic, and when he was relatively healthy he was always good.

AJ Pierzynski - he was awful. But clearly part of the intent was to have a 1-year stopgap because of how much catching they had in the org. So no harm.

 

There were lots of relievers otherwise, and they do what relievers do ... kind of throw your hands up there

 

The first Uehara was not a big splash signing. I think he got $4.5M x 2.

 

My point was more about all MLB big splash signings. Hardly any are clear success stories.

 

I was against the HanRam signing at the time. I would not do the HanRam signing again, if we could go back.

[Fisk]

Wow, we actually made it to an arb hearing before settling?

 

How long's it been?

 

2002 with Rolando Arroyo, how has this streak ended with Abad?

[Fisk]

Would not have signed Hanley for that amount, but it was definitely a different environment that offseason, right handed power was in demand. Still happy to have him on our team.

[Kimmi]

Love Ortiz but he did clog up the bases last year. Obviously we will miss his bat, but I believe the production in left field will be greater. I know the reservations about Pablo, but remember how bad Shaw was from June on last Year. I think Pablo can hit 270 to 280 with 15 to 20 homers and ops around 800. My biggest concern is catcher have very little faith in Leon matching last year, hope for a short leash and an uptick in Swiharts defense. Overall I think the runs might fall a little short, but would not be surprised if they match it.

 

We will miss Papi's bat for sure, but I agree that we're likely to see an increase in production from LF and 3B. I'm on board the Pablo train.

 

Leon will not match last year's production, but I think he can be league average offensively for a catcher. I'd rather have league average offense with strong defense at catcher than the other way around. The rest of our offense should be strong enough to overcome even below average offense at catcher.

[Kimmi]

Oh Kimmi.

 

It's the Wildly Accurate Projection Machine, sometimes called the UAPM (Uncannily Accurate Projection Machine). Basically the algorithms I wrote one day to improve my struggling fantasy team that I then had fun using to predict short term turnarounds for Nava and Buchholz a few years back on BDC...

 

LOL, I should have known. The rest of the projection makers are at a disadvantage.

[moonslav59]

2002 with Rolando Arroyo, how has this streak ended with Abad?

 

Someone said they had the hearing today. Maybe they can still settle, but I thought it meant the arbitrator will decide now.

[Kimmi]

I was glad the ARod deal fell through.

 

Manny was better.

 

I was very disappointed at the time that we didn't get ARod. But boy, did that turn out great for us.

[Fisk]

We will miss Papi's bat for sure, but I agree that we're likely to see an increase in production from LF and 3B. I'm on board the Pablo train.

 

Leon will not match last year's production, but I think he can be league average offensively for a catcher. I'd rather have league average offense with strong defense at catcher than the other way around. The rest of our offense should be strong enough to overcome even below average offense at catcher.

 

I'd be thrilled if he was league average offensively, I have September and October stuck in my head, just looked so overmatched.

[Fisk]

Someone said they had the hearing today. Maybe they can still settle, but I thought it meant the arbitrator will decide now.

 

Arbitrator will decide now, he heard the case.

[Fisk]

I was very disappointed at the time that we didn't get ARod. But boy, did that turn out great for us.

Agree with you, Sox history would be much different would not have three world championships.

[moonslav59]

We will miss Papi's bat for sure, but I agree that we're likely to see an increase in production from LF and 3B. I'm on board the Pablo train.

 

Leon will not match last year's production, but I think he can be league average offensively for a catcher. I'd rather have league average offense with strong defense at catcher than the other way around. The rest of our offense should be strong enough to overcome even below average offense at catcher.

 

The thing about Leon is this: while Leon may fall back down to earth as most of us expect, how hard will it be for him, Vaz and Swihart to improve on this:

 

.449 Hanigan in 111 PAs

.454 Holaday in 32 PAs

.584 Vazquez in 181 PAs

 

[Kimmi]

The first Uehara was not a big splash signing. I think he got $4.5M x 2.

 

My point was more about all MLB big splash signings. Hardly any are clear success stories.

 

I was against the HanRam signing at the time. I would not do the HanRam signing again, if we could go back.

 

I agree with sk on the Hanley signing. Unlike Pablo's contract, I thought Hanley's contract was decent. I would do it again.

[Kimmi]

Someone said they had the hearing today. Maybe they can still settle, but I thought it meant the arbitrator will decide now.

 

They did have the hearing today. A decision is expected on Thursday. This is the first arb hearing since Henry took over ownership.

[moonslav59]

I agree with sk on the Hanley signing. Unlike Pablo's contract, I thought Hanley's contract was decent. I would do it again.

 

Not then. Not now. Not me.

[Kimmi]

Not then. Not now. Not me.

 

Well for me, then and now.

 

Same with Porcello's extension.

[harmony]

To some extent ... as you know, the winner's curse infects FA. That and the age of the average UFA makes it a difficult pool to jump into for longer term help.

 

If you look at some of the biggies

 

Ramirez - a pretty good contract considering. He was lousy the first year, and bounced back last year. Has been a mixed bag, but I'd happily do it again largely. (although I'd have put him in the infield from the jump)

In his bounceback 2016 season, Hanley Ramirez posted 2.6 fWAR, valued at $20.7 million, while pulling down a salary of $22 million.

 

Two years and $44 million into his four-year, $88 million contract, Ramirez has posted 0.8 fWAR, valued at $6.2 million.

[moonslav59]

Well for me, then and now.

 

Same with Porcello's extension.

 

I was all on board with the Porcello extension at the time. All the years were within prime.

[moonslav59]

In his bounceback 2016 season, Hanley Ramirez posted 2.6 fWAR, valued at $20.7 million, while pulling down a salary of $22 million.

 

Two years and $44 million into his four-year, $88 million contract, Ramirez has posted 0.8 fWAR, valued at $6.2 million.

 

It was hard to know back then that the cost of sluggers would fall so much, so to me, the signing looks much worse in hindsight. (i.e. I'd rather have EE than HanRam.)

 

But, I'm not talking hindsight. The deal was not good at the time. It was better than the Pablo deal, and at the time, I argued I'd rather have HanRam at 3B than Pablo. There was no need for both.

 

Signing Scherzer made more sense.

[User Name]

In his bounceback 2016 season, Hanley Ramirez posted 2.6 fWAR, valued at $20.7 million, while pulling down a salary of $22 million.

 

Two years and $44 million into his four-year, $88 million contract, Ramirez has posted 0.8 fWAR, valued at $6.2 million.

 

Do you ever have anything positive to say about the Red Sox or their players though? Honest question.