A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

He wouldn't have added any depth, so it comes down to whether or not he's an upgrade over Hembree. And if he is one, would he have been enough of one to justify losing luxury tax wiggle room?

 

I agree, but my thought is that we can probably trade Abad and Hembree for RP'ers who are not out of options, thereby keeping the depth but in a more flexible form.

 

To me, the downfall of signing Storen, assuming he'd have come here as a non-closer, is the loss in flex spending, however the money needed at the deadline should not be that much as we'd only be paying 2/3rds of a player's salary. $8M is enough to trade for two guys making $12M each for the season.

 

The upside is possible closer depth (like Uehara was for Kimbrel).

[mvp 78]

Drew Storen is ok, but I'm not sure the upside is there. He's a guy you get to fill out your bullpen and I'm not sure he's better than what we have now.

 

You can't sign everyone.

[moonslav59]

Drew Storen is ok, but I'm not sure the upside is there. He's a guy you get to fill out your bullpen and I'm not sure he's better than what we have now.

 

You can't sign everyone.

 

I don't disagree, and maybe his "upside" is not any higher than Barnes or Hembree's. It's his experience as a closer that is attractive to me. I'm not sure Thornburg is that kind of guy.

[mvp 78]

I don't disagree, and maybe his "upside" is not any higher than Barnes or Hembree's. It's his experience as a closer that is attractive to me. I'm not sure Thornburg is that kind of guy.

 

Again, you can't sign everyone. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017-mlb-free-agent-tracker/positions-rp

 

There are still a few guys with closing experience available (Holland, Papelbon, Joe Smith, Sergio Romo) that could be better than Storen.

[Emp9]

I don't think we need a guy with Closer experience necessarily. Another decent 6th-7th-8th Inning RP should suffice... and would be undoubtedly less expensive.

[moonslav59]

Again, you can't sign everyone. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017-mlb-free-agent-tracker/positions-rp

 

There are still a few guys with closing experience available (Holland, Papelbon, Joe Smith, Sergio Romo) that could be better than Storen.

 

I think Holland will cost much more, Papelbon is a bum, Smith and Romo have little closer experience.

 

Look, I'm fine with not signing another RP'er before the start of the season. I like having the flex money for the deadline, but I'm still very concerned about asking Thornburg to replace Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa. I understand Carson Smith may help at some point in 2017, but I'm not very confident in Kelly, Barnes, Ross and Hembree/Abad/Scott taking up the rest of the slack from losing 3 of our best RP'ers from a pen that was about average last year.

[moonslav59]

I don't think we need a guy with Closer experience necessarily. Another decent 6th-7th-8th Inning RP should suffice... and would be undoubtedly less expensive.

 

$3M and no lost prospects is pretty inexpensive for a quality FA set-up man RP'er these days, especially one with some positive closer experience. Granted, Storen has some big questions or concerns. I'm not saying I wish we signed him at $4M.

 

I'm just saying it might have been a good idea to sign someone like him than to try and trade for a RP'er doing well mid-season. We need to try and keep our prospects at least for a while.

Edited January 4, 2017 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

I think Holland will cost much more, Papelbon is a bum, Smith and Romo have little closer experience.

 

Look, I'm fine with not signing another RP'er before the start of the season. I like having the flex money for the deadline, but I'm still very concerned about asking Thornburg to replace Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa. I understand Carson Smith may help at some point in 2017, but I'm not very confident in Kelly, Barnes, Ross and Hembree/Abad/Scott taking up the rest of the slack from losing 3 of our best RP'ers from a pen that was about average last year.

 

Romo closed out a World Series and has 84 career saves. Joe Smith was the 8th inning guy for the Angels last year and he filled in well when Street was out. Paplebon's attitude is worse than his arm.

[S5Dewey]

Getting back to Abad for a moment, I don't understand why this guy has a roster spot. I keep thinking that there must be some metric that keeps him there showing value that I don't see. I know perceptions are notoriously unreliable but it seems like every time he comes into a game he fails to help the situation. And "failing to help" is his best case scenario!

 

He had one good year in 2014 and other than that his numbers have been pretty much pedestrian but it seems like he flunks the eye test every time he takes the mound. Are there some metrics that I'm not aware of that indicate the number of inherited runs allowed and/or the number of "his" runners who have later scored?

[moonslav59]

Romo closed out a World Series and has 84 career saves. Joe Smith was the 8th inning guy for the Angels last year and he filled in well when Street was out. Paplebon's attitude is worse than his arm.

 

I stand corrected on Romo. He'd be better than Storen, but much more costly as well.

 

If we could get him for $4.5 to 5.5M, we'd still have some nice flex to trade for a starter, if needed at the deadline.

[a700hitter]

I stand corrected on Romo. He'd be better than Storen, but much more costly as well.

 

If we could get him for $4.5 to 5.5M, we'd still have some nice flex to trade for a starter, if needed at the deadline.

They both stink. I wouldn't want either of them.

[moonslav59]

Getting back to Abad for a moment, I don't understand why this guy has a roster spot. I keep thinking that there must be some metric that keeps him there showing value that I don't see. I know perceptions are notoriously unreliable but it seems like every time he comes into a game he fails to help the situation. And "failing to help" is his best case scenario!

 

He had one good year in 2014 and other than that his numbers have been pretty much pedestrian but it seems like he flunks the eye test every time he takes the mound. Are there some metrics that I'm not aware of that indicate the number of inherited runs allowed and/or the number of "his" runners who have later scored?

 

His .461 OPS against by lefties led the team last year.

 

I agree though, we don't need him. Ross and Scott did great vs lefties as well. Kimbrel kept lefties at a .514 OPS and Thronburg has a massive reverse split of over 200 points. He's much better vs LHB'ers.

 

Abad is also expected to make close to $2M in arb. I'd trade him, but I'd try to get another RP'er almost as good but with options remaining. We'd save money and keep the pen depth.

[notin]

I don't think of Storen as a missed opportunity. He may or may not be an upgrade over Hembree, who would likely have been waived at some point if Storen was signed.

 

However the Diamondbacks signed Rubby De La Rosa to a minor league deal. That was more of a missed opportunity. Not that I have great expectations for De La Rosa, but I would expect him to be an improvement over Owens and Johnson...

[notin]

His .461 OPS against by lefties led the team last year.

 

I agree though, we don't need him. Ross and Scott did great vs lefties as well. Kimbrel kept lefties at a .514 OPS and Thronburg has a massive reverse split of over 200 points. He's much better vs LHB'ers.

 

Abad is also expected to make close to $2M in arb. I'd trade him, but I'd try to get another RP'er almost as good but with options remaining. We'd save money and keep the pen depth.

 

Agree on Abad. It was a stupid trade from the word go. We gave up a minor league pitcher with options and released Tommy Layne in order to acquire a more expensive version of Tommy Layne.

[S5Dewey]

His .461 OPS against by lefties led the team last year.

 

I agree though, we don't need him. Ross and Scott did great vs lefties as well. Kimbrel kept lefties at a .514 OPS and Thronburg has a massive reverse split of over 200 points. He's much better vs LHB'ers.

 

Abad is also expected to make close to $2M in arb. I'd trade him, but I'd try to get another RP'er almost as good but with options remaining. We'd save money and keep the pen depth.

 

That's fair. It seems like he would be marketable to some team with a surplus of RH mediocre relief pitchers (which would be most teams) who's looking for a lefty with a nice ERA against LH hitters.

[notin]

They both stink. I wouldn't want either of them.

 

I wouldn't say Romo stinks, but he certainly gets hurt alot. I'd pass too.

 

I'm ok with pen upgrades, But that will probably mean getting rid of Hembree and Abad, so these guys have a certain bat they have to teach to justify the money. Not that it is a high bar.

 

I'd rather see some league deals for depth right now. ..

[moonslav59]

I think I asked this earlier with little response:

 

Are you all really content with our 3-7 RP'ers (at least until Carson Smith returns)?

 

1 Kimbrel

2 Thornburg

 

3 Kelly

4 Wright (assuming ERod is healthy)

5 Ross

6 Barnes

7 Hembree/Abad/Scott

 

We keep taking about our 6-7 RP'er and some of their issues with options, but I see a big need and plenty of question marks on our 3-6 RP'ers.

 

We want to hope Kelly continues how he left off last year, but we felt then same way last winter after his nice 2015 ending.

 

We want to hope Carson Smith will return is as good shape as he was in 2015, but who knows?

 

We want to hope Ross continues being one of our most consistent RP'ers over the last two years.

 

We want to hope Barnes shows us more of the glimpses of promise he showed us last year.

 

We want to hope all our starters stay healthy, so we can rely on having Wright or Pom in the pen.

 

We want to hope Hembree comes through on some of that promise he's had for over 3 years.

 

There's lots of hope here but little reliable confidence building RP'ers in this group. Maybe the sheer number of promising pitchers gives us good odds that 2-3 will do well all year, but I'd prefer to have a (more) solid guy in the 3 slot by opening day. I don't want to use up all of our flex spending account, but trading a prospect at the deadline for a quality RP'er is not comforting either.

[S5Dewey]

I think I asked this earlier with little response:

 

Are you all really content with our 3-7 RP'ers (at least until Carson Smith returns)?

 

1 Kimbrel

2 Thornburg

 

3 Kelly

4 Wright (assuming ERod is healthy)

5 Ross

6 Barnes

7 Hembree/Abad/Scott

 

We keep taking about our 6-7 RP'er and some of their issues with options, but I see a big need and plenty of question marks on our 3-6 RP'ers.

 

We want to hope Kelly continues how he left off last year, but we felt then same way last winter after his nice 2015 ending.

 

We want to hope Carson Smith will return is as good shape as he was in 2015, but who knows?

 

We want to hope Ross continues being one of our most consistent RP'ers over the last two years.

 

We want to hope Barnes shows us more of the glimpses of promise he showed us last year.

 

We want to hope all our starters stay healthy, so we can rely on having Wright or Pom in the pen.

 

We want to hope Hembree comes through on some of that promise he's had for over 3 years.

 

There's lots of hope here but little reliable confidence building RP'ers in this group. Maybe the sheer number of promising pitchers gives us good odds that 2-3 will do well all year, but I'd prefer to have a (more) solid guy in the 3 slot by opening day. I don't want to use up all of our flex spending account, but trading a prospect at the deadline for a quality RP'er is not comforting either.

 

I don't have too much angst about our 3-7 'pen. Those positions are a crap shoot on any team. I agree that given their history 2-3 of these guys will step up. Besides, given the quality of our top 3 pitchers there may not be a lot of work for #'s 3-7 anyway so I think this problem will sort itself out. It may take a little more time (and a few more losses) than we'd like, but IMO it will happen.

 

If that's what we're worrying about then things are looking good!

[moonslav59]

soxprospects reports on....

 

ERod: The Red Sox are not concerned with the injury, though it is the same knee that Rodriguez injured during spring training last season.

Hanley Ramirez was 3 for 12 with a double and two walks.

Marco Hernandez was 0 for 9 with a walk.

Roenis Elias made starts for the Aguilas last Tuesday and this Monday, throwing ten total innings and allowing three runs on nine hits and six walks, punching out eleven.

Fernando Abad made two appearances, going 1 2/3 shutout innings with three strikeouts and a walk.

Christian Vazquez took part in three games this week, going 2 for 10 with a double and bringing his slash line to .237/.333/.320 this winter.

Rusney Castillo has had more offensive success in Puerto Rico and that continued into this week as he was 7 for 15 with a double, including back-to-back three-hit performances on Monday and Tuesday.

[moonslav59]

I don't have too much angst about our 3-7 'pen. Those positions are a crap shoot on any team. I agree that given their history 2-3 of these guys will step up. Besides, given the quality of our top 3 pitchers there may not be a lot of work for #'s 3-7 anyway so I think this problem will sort itself out. It may take a little more time (and a few more losses) than we'd like, but IMO it will happen.

 

If that's what we're worrying about then things are looking good!

 

You're probably right. I just expected more pen building than just Thornburg and hopes of a speedy Carson Smith recovery. Our pen was a weak point last year, and we lost 3 of our best pen arms to free agency.

[S5Dewey]

soxprospects reports on....

 

ERod: The Red Sox are not concerned with the injury, though it is the same knee that Rodriguez injured during spring training last season.

Hanley Ramirez was 3 for 12 with a double and two walks.

Marco Hernandez was 0 for 9 with a walk.

Roenis Elias made starts for the Aguilas last Tuesday and this Monday, throwing ten total innings and allowing three runs on nine hits and six walks, punching out eleven.

Fernando Abad made two appearances, going 1 2/3 shutout innings with three strikeouts and a walk.

Christian Vazquez took part in three games this week, going 2 for 10 with a double and bringing his slash line to .237/.333/.320 this winter.

Rusney Castillo has had more offensive success in Puerto Rico and that continued into this week as he was 7 for 15 with a double, including back-to-back three-hit performances on Monday and Tuesday.

 

Point by point;

Hanley and Remierez = Meh. Small sample size. IMO MH will be better than that and Hanley will be A LOT better than that.

Elias = 3 runs in 10 innings in that competition isn't impressive, but 9 K's in 10 innings is impressive.

Abad = Just after I'd trashed the guy I see good numbers. Go figure!! LOL

Vaz = Disappointing. I'm still hoping for better.

Castillo = Raises the point of what do we do if he turns out to be as advertised? We can only put 3 guys in that outfield! Do we hope he succeeds, or do we hope he fails? (Theoretically speaking, of course. We NEVER hope anyone fails. Ugh.)

[Bellhorn04]

You're probably right. I just expected more pen building than just Thornburg and hopes of a speedy Carson Smith recovery. Our pen was a weak point last year, and we lost 3 of our best pen arms to free agency.

 

Was it really a weak point? How did our pen stack up against the rest of the league?

[moonslav59]

Was it really a weak point? How did our pen stack up against the rest of the league?

 

About 9th to 15th in most categories I care about, but as you get to the 10th through 16th slots, there's not much separating them from the middle of the pack pens.

 

What I think is happening is that we remember the pen that ended the season doing very well. Kimbrel had returned from Injury. Uehara had too and was doing very well. Ziegler was acquired during the year and did great for us. Tazawa turned things around a little near the end. Kelly sucked in April as a starter, but gave us hope by doing well in a small end of season sample size. 3 of those guys are gone, and we're relying on guys like Kelly and barnes to pitch like Uehara and tazawa.

 

A top 10-15 pen loses Uehara, Ziegler and Tazawa and adds Thornburg and maybe, eventually Smith, I'm thinking we should expect worse this year. Now, a team with great starters, a great defense and decent defense can probably absorb having a mediocre pen, but that doesn't mean we can't try to make one more adjustment before the season starts and we'll have to trade someone to get someone good.

[mvp 78]

Castillo = Raises the point of what do we do if he turns out to be as advertised? We can only put 3 guys in that outfield! Do we hope he succeeds, or do we hope he fails? (Theoretically speaking, of course. We NEVER hope anyone fails. Ugh.)

 

I want him to be an amazing 4th OF who gets enough value back that we can dump him on somebody else.

[harmony]

I want him to be an amazing 4th OF who gets enough value back that we can dump him on somebody else.

The Red Sox might not be able to absorb the impact Rusney Castillo's $10.3 million AAV would have for luxury-tax purposes if he is activated on to the 40-man roster as a fourth outfielder.

[moonslav59]

Point by point;

Hanley and Remierez = Meh. Small sample size. IMO MH will be better than that and Hanley will be A LOT better than that.

Elias = 3 runs in 10 innings in that competition isn't impressive, but 9 K's in 10 innings is impressive.

Abad = Just after I'd trashed the guy I see good numbers. Go figure!! LOL

Vaz = Disappointing. I'm still hoping for better.

Castillo = Raises the point of what do we do if he turns out to be as advertised? We can only put 3 guys in that outfield! Do we hope he succeeds, or do we hope he fails? (Theoretically speaking, of course. We NEVER hope anyone fails. Ugh.)

 

Hernandez was actually red hot before this past week.

 

Castillo will really have to impress to be added to the 40 man roster and luxury tax budget. My guess is that if he does well, we'll trade him and maybe pay some of his contract.

 

A question: if we trade him and pay $5M a year of his salary, and he's on someone else's 40 man roster, does that $5M count against our luxury tax number? If so, we shouldn't trade him.

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox might not be able to absorb the impact Rusney Castillo's $10.3 million AAV would have for luxury-tax purposes if he is activated on to the 40-man roster as a fourth outfielder.

 

Just barely, with no wiggle room for anything else.

 

Not worth it.

[harmony]

Hernandez was actually red hot before this past week.

 

Castillo will really have to impress to be added to the 40 man roster and luxury tax budget. My guess is that if he does well, we'll trade him and maybe pay some of his contract.

 

A question: if we trade him and pay $5M a year of his salary, and he's on someone else's 40 man roster, does that $5M count against our luxury tax number? If so, we shouldn't trade him.

That $5 million would count against the Red Sox for luxury tax purposes. Rusney Castillo is in transactional purgatory.

[moonslav59]

That $5 million would count against the Red Sox for luxury tax purposes. Rusney Castillo is in transactional purgatory.

 

Because he'd be on another team's 40 man roster, of just because we paid to have another team take him off our minor league roster?

 

I'm not so sure how it would work. There's probably no or little precedent.

 

It seems like since he doesn't count now, why would trading a non 40 man roster player suddenly make his contract count?

 

[FredLynn]

Was it really a weak point? How did our pen stack up against the rest of the league?

 

Our RP was 5th in ERA in the AL last year. I would not call our pen a "weak point"; not if they are in the upper third in ERA. Maybe not as strong as other areas perhaps, but not weak. While you might argue that other measures are more important, ERA and ERA+ remains up there. While Koji did well after he returned, Tazawa did not have a good year, and Ziegler was only with us for a few months anyway. The addition of Thornburg and the return of Smith should make our pen stronger IMO than it was last year, at least on paper. But as everyone here knows, relief pitchers are a crapshoot.