A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Emp9]

MLBTR reports... there would have been a higher loss had we signed EE than we thought.

 

Money and the potential loss of amateur talent were key reasons the Red Sox didn’t seriously pursue Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. Getting under the luxury tax threshold will save the Red Sox money both now and in future seasons, particularly given the possibility that they could reset their threshold this season, thus limiting their penalties in the future. Also, the new CBA calls for teams that exceed the threshold and sign a player who declined a qualifying offer to forfeit their second- and fifth-round draft picks and portions of their international bonus pools.

 

Was that new CBA effective this offseason?

[Kimmi]

As a wise man once said "baseball is the best sport because you don't have to be in shape to play."

 

Undoubtedly he was watching John Kruk or Pete Incaviglia or Cecil Fielder or.... at the time...

 

Unless you're Pablo. Then you have to be in shape.

[Station 13]

Unless you're Pablo. Then you have to be in shape.

 

Round is a shape. Oval is a shape.

[Kimmi]

Seth Smith has a career OPS+ of 112 with a projected 2017 wRC+ of 113, while Mitch Moreland has a career OPS+ of 100 with a projected 2017 wRC+ of 96. That's quite a gap.

 

I sincerely wonder how much Dombrowski considers such stats when making trades.

 

I don't think he's the type to choose player A over player B based advanced stats. I think he's more the type to sign a player based on his impression of the overall fit and need. Not saying that Dombrowski doesn't look at the stats, but he doesn't prioritize them as much as Theo and Ben did.

 

I think Moreland is a good fit for the team for reasons already posted.

[Kimmi]

Round is a shape. Oval is a shape.

 

Good point.

[moonslav59]

Seth Smith has a career wRC+ of 112 after posting 113 in 2015 and 110 in 2016 with a 2017 projection of 113. No steep decline in his hitting (although Seattle fans would contend his defense has fallen off steeply).

 

A steep decline would be Mitch Moreland's wRC+ drop from 117 in 2015 to 87 in 2016 although Moreland is projected to rebound to a 2017 wRC+ of 96.

 

Most projections take into account the aging curve for these players separated by only three years in age.

 

The three years differential happens to be the most crucial 3 years on the age curve dynamic. 32 to 35 is when most players show steady decline or drop off a cliff near 34-35-36 years old.

 

Fangraphs has these numbers on Smith that clearly show he is in decline and already under his career norm for the last two years:

 

Last 3 year trend (age 31-32-33). He turns 35 in Sept.

 

wRC+: 131> 113> 110 (career 113)

wOBA: .357> .331> .331 (career .343)

Baseball Reference has this:

OPS+: 134> 116> 108 (career 112)

 

Since Smith has always had a "pitcher's" home field (OAK, SD, SEA) choosing stats that adjust for this all show a decline. Maybe moving to BAL will improve his OPS and SLG numbers, but I wouldn't expect and increase in any of the 3 stats I just provided.

 

Moreland's numbers have been all over the map with some massive swings up and down. Choosing a 1 year decline to try and show his trend is downwards is not really fair. His age is also within the range of prime, so there should be no age-related downward projection either.

 

Look, I wouldn't bet on Moreland equallng or bettering Smith in 2 of the 3 stats I used above in 2017, but I think there's a good chance he does, and as you pointed out, the defensive value Moreland brings to the Sox infield, and the steep decline in Smith's defense makes the Sox choice the right one. The money differential between trading Buc for Smith vs trading Buch for no cost added and signing Moreland instead is icing on the cake.

 

[moonslav59]

I sincerely wonder how much Dombrowski considers such stats when making trades.

 

I don't think he's the type to choose player A over player B based advanced stats. I think he's more the type to sign a player based on his impression of the overall fit and need. Not saying that Dombrowski doesn't look at the stats, but he doesn't prioritize them as much as Theo and Ben did.

 

I think Moreland is a good fit for the team for reasons already posted.

 

He's a better fit than Smith in terms of what we needed and the numbers support the decision.

 

Despite how good we all felt about HanRam's adjustment to 1B last year, he was still a negative defender when compared to the league norm. His injury history also begged the question: why not move him to DH? I actually think the Sox planned (the day we signed him) on moving him to DH once Papi retired. It just makes too much sense.

 

Keeping his "head in the game" By playing him at 1B vs some or most LHPs (as Young DHs when HanRam does not) will also keep him sharp at 1B for when he needs to play there in NL parks.

 

Seth Smith plays OF and plays it badly. We had little need for a bad defensive OF'er that would essentially be just a DH vs RHPs. Signing a 1B or 1B/OF type player was the obvious right choice. There were several other choices I'd put way ahead of Smith (B Moss or A Lind to name 2), but Moreland offered the defensive excellence at 1B and the hope of a decent bat vs RHPs that none of the others provided.

 

wRC+ 2015-2016 combined vs RHPs

143 EE

141 Bautista

125 Trumbo

119 P Alvarez

117 A Lind & K Morales

106 Morrison

105 Moreland

105 C Carter

102 B Moss

96 T Shaw

92 Napoli

 

wOBA

.346 Alvarez

.344 Lind

.333 Moreland

.331 Carter

.324 Moss

.323 Morrison

.321 T Shaw

.312 Napoli

 

UZR/150 at 1B (35 with 750+ innings '15-'16):

3 Moreland +7.7

10 EE +4.1

20 Napoli -0.1

22 Lind -1.0

30 Morrison -3.1

33 Carter -5.1

35 Alvarez -26.4

 

If you lower the innings to 700:

1 T Shaw +15.2 (out of 42 qualified)

Edited January 8, 2017 by moonslav59

[harmony]

After my initial surprise with the Mitch Moreland signing, I've come to understand the decision. The Red Sox should be run-producers and an upgrade in defense was more important.

 

The budgetary difference between signing Moreland at $5.5 million and trading Clay Buchholz at $13.5 million for Seth Smith at $7 million was $1.5 million (less whatever Josh Tobias earns).

 

For what it's worth, FanGraphs Depth Charts project Moreland with a 2017 WAR of 0.7 in 525 plate appearances and Smith with a 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 490 plate appearances:

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#ALL

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2#ALL

[moonslav59]

After my initial surprise with the Mitch Moreland signing, I've come to understand the decision. The Red Sox should be run-producers and an upgrade in defense was more important.

 

The budgetary difference between signing Moreland at $5.5 million and trading Clay Buchholz at $13.5 million for Seth Smith at $7 million was $1.5 million (less whatever Josh Tobias earns)....

 

It's not what Tobias earns, since he won't be on the 40 man roster, but the guy who replaces Buch will likely be a $500K player, so the difference is likely going to be $1M. That may not seem like much, but at the deadline, when trading for a player means we're only on the hook for 1/3 of a player's annual salary, having that extra $1M means the difference between being able to trade for a $9M annual salary player or a $12M player.

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth, FanGraphs Depth Charts project Moreland with a 2017 WAR of 0.7 in 525 plate appearances and Smith with a 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 490 plate appearances.

 

With all due respect, and I really respect you, you rely too much on WAR projections.

 

WAR discriminates against 1Bmen. Moreland had the best UZR/150 as a 1Bman last year and still had a negative defense factor in WAR calculation.

 

I know the ridiculous subtraction of defense from DH's is even worse, but having so much faith in WAR projections misses other factors in valuing players.

 

If we can keep HanRam healthy, get him more PAs and keep his poor defense off 1B, Moreland's value is worth much more than whatever WAR he puts up.

[notin]

I sincerely wonder how much Dombrowski considers such stats when making trades.

 

I don't think he's the type to choose player A over player B based advanced stats. I think he's more the type to sign a player based on his impression of the overall fit and need. Not saying that Dombrowski doesn't look at the stats, but he doesn't prioritize them as much as Theo and Ben did.

 

I think Moreland is a good fit for the team for reasons already posted.

 

I trade Buchholz for Smith before signing Moreland any day. But while I don't like the Moreland solution over a few other alternatives, I really can't sit here and pretend this particular choice of stopgap lefty bat is going to be the death nail of the 2017 season...

[notin]

It's not what Tobias earns, since he won't be on the 40 man roster, but the guy who replaces Buch will likely be a $500K player, so the difference is likely going to be $1M. That may not seem like much, but at the deadline, when trading for a player means we're only on the hook for 1/3 of a player's annual salary, having that extra $1M means the difference between being able to trade for a $9M annual salary player or a $12M player.

 

So then we release Abad, who won't be earing his money anyway, and call up Robby Scott. And we get better on 3 roster spots. See how easy this is...

[moonslav59]

So then we release Abad, who won't be earing his money anyway, and call up Robby Scott. And we get better on 3 roster spots. See how easy this is...

 

I know keeping pen depth has value, but I totally agree on Abad. If we can't trade him, then release him, if we lose the arb (or maybe even if we win).

 

I'd give Hembree his roster spot- not Scott, since he HH out of options.

 

7 pen slots (assuming Smith starts out on the DL):

Kimbrel

Thornburg

Kelly

Ross

Barnes

Wright/Pom

Hembree

 

If ERod begins the year on the DL or in AAA, then Scott would be my #7 depending on how others look in ST'ing:

Elias

Workman

Olmos (I believe out of options & not on 40 man roster)

Martin

Ysla

Noe Ramirez

Owens or Johnson

 

[S5Dewey]

Golf is most definitely a sport. It is a competitive activity that involves physical skill.

 

IMO, that's a sport.

 

 

I agree that golf is a sport because 1) It involves a ball [or a puck] and 2), you keep score.

 

But your definition makes cheerleading a sport and there's no way I'm buying into that!!

[moonslav59]

I agree that golf is a sport because 1) It involves a ball [or a puck] and 2), you keep score.

 

But your definition makes cheerleading a sport and there's no way I'm buying into that!!

 

Next, they'll be calling driving a car making a bunch of left hand turns a sport.

[Bellhorn04]

Golf is much a sport as baseball. They're both primarily games of skill in which athleticism is an asset, but not a necessity.

[cp176]

I agree that golf is a sport because 1) It involves a ball [or a puck] and 2), you keep score.

 

But your definition makes cheerleading a sport and there's no way I'm buying into that!!

 

Whether anyone considers cheerleading a legit "sport" or not is like so much else - personal opinion. I have mixed feelings about the purpose of cheerleading myself but I would never doubt the athleticism of some of the kids who choose it as their activity of choice. Some outstanding gymnasts there!

[notin]

I agree that golf is a sport because 1) It involves a ball [or a puck] and 2), you keep score.

 

But your definition makes cheerleading a sport and there's no way I'm buying into that!!

 

By your logic, foosball and jacks are sports...

[notin]

Golf is much a sport as baseball. They're both primarily games of skill in which athleticism is an asset, but not a necessity.

 

II think golf is a sport. I just think it's an awful one. It's on the very short list of sports I have no desire to either watch or play.

 

Golf and auto racing. That's the list...

[Bellhorn04]

I'll tell you what golf has that hardly any other sports have. Ethics and sportsmanship. Golfers call penalties on themselves. Golfers treat each other with respect. It's one of the few sports left you see consistently civilized behavior.

[S5Dewey]

I'll tell you what golf has that hardly any other sports have. Ethics and sportsmanship. Golfers call penalties on themselves. Golfers treat each other with respect. It's one of the few sports left you see consistently civilized behavior.

 

I agree, and in my experience it's why I like the sport of wrestling. Wrestling is all about sportsmanship, respect, and ethics - at least where I live it is.

 

Wrestling is also an obvious sport Notin overlooked in his remark to my prior post. Although wrestling doesn't involve a ball we do keep score, and the participants are more athletic than jacks players. Maybe the most athletic of any sport.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree, and in my experience it's why I like the sport of wrestling. Wrestling is all about sportsmanship, respect, and ethics - at least where I live it is.

 

Wrestling is also an obvious sport Notin overlooked in his remark to my prior post. Although wrestling doesn't involve a ball we do keep score, and the participants are more athletic than jacks players. Maybe the most athletic of any sport.

 

Hell yeah, real wrestling is one of the original sports. I can't relate to it, mind you...you have to be in serious shape for that one.

[Spudboy]

Next, they'll be calling driving a car making a bunch of left hand turns a sport.

 

This post wreaks of ignorance.

 

Do you have any idea of how much physical stress is involved in driving a car 180 plus mph for several hours is? How about sitting in a 140 degree sauna for 4 hours?

 

People knowledgeable about motor sports know how athletic today's drivers and riders need to be. It is very competitive to just get to the upper levels of motor sport competition. Today all the drivers are athletes.

 

The stereotype of old time drivers with pot bellies and gray hair is no longer relevant.

 

Motor racing is very much a sport. If you don't believe that then maybe you should try driving or riding in a race or even being a pit crew member.

 

You would not last very long unless you were in very good athletic condition.

[S5Dewey]

Hell yeah, real wrestling is one of the original sports. I can't relate to it, mind you...you have to be in serious shape for that one.

 

I never wrestled and at my advanced age I'm not about to start now! I've always been involved with "ball sports" until about 5 years ago when wrestling entered my life. Now I believe that wrestling is what it's all about. Conditioning, technique, sportsmanship, & respect. I still like the ball sports too, but IMO wrestling is the purest sport - even if it doesn't involve a ball.

[harmony]

Are rowing and rhythmic gymnastics sports?

 

My children have exposed me to previously unfamiliar athletic endeavors.

[notin]

 

Wrestling is also an obvious sport Notin overlooked in his remark to my prior post.

 

Well, my goal was to simply disprove your definition, not to create a comprehensive list. My original post included Gnip Gnop, which fit your definition of a sport but I felt might be too obscure of a reference for some of the younger readers.

[moonslav59]

This post wreaks of ignorance.

 

Do you have any idea of how much physical stress is involved in driving a car 180 plus mph for several hours is? How about sitting in a 140 degree sauna for 4 hours?

 

People knowledgeable about motor sports know how athletic today's drivers and riders need to be. It is very competitive to just get to the upper levels of motor sport competition. Today all the drivers are athletes.

 

The stereotype of old time drivers with pot bellies and gray hair is no longer relevant.

 

Motor racing is very much a sport. If you don't believe that then maybe you should try driving or riding in a race or even being a pit crew member.

 

You would not last very long unless you were in very good athletic condition.

 

To me, just having physical forced placed upon you, such as G forces with car racing, does not make it a sport.

 

I am fully aware of the forces and stresses on a car racer. I'm not "ignorant".

 

Is flying an Air Force jet a sport?

 

Would it be, if they raced?

[a700hitter]

I agree, and in my experience it's why I like the sport of wrestling. Wrestling is all about sportsmanship, respect, and ethics - at least where I live it is.

 

Wrestling is also an obvious sport Notin overlooked in his remark to my prior post. Although wrestling doesn't involve a ball we do keep score, and the participants are more athletic than jacks players. Maybe the most athletic of any sport.

My Dad was an Amateur wrestler, and taught me many moves and holds. I tried it a few times in high school. It is the most physically grueling sport of all.

[Kimmi]

He's a better fit than Smith in terms of what we needed and the numbers support the decision.

 

Despite how good we all felt about HanRam's adjustment to 1B last year, he was still a negative defender when compared to the league norm. His injury history also begged the question: why not move him to DH? I actually think the Sox planned (the day we signed him) on moving him to DH once Papi retired. It just makes too much sense.

 

Keeping his "head in the game" By playing him at 1B vs some or most LHPs (as Young DHs when HanRam does not) will also keep him sharp at 1B for when he needs to play there in NL parks.

 

Seth Smith plays OF and plays it badly. We had little need for a bad defensive OF'er that would essentially be just a DH vs RHPs. Signing a 1B or 1B/OF type player was the obvious right choice. There were several other choices I'd put way ahead of Smith (B Moss or A Lind to name 2), but Moreland offered the defensive excellence at 1B and the hope of a decent bat vs RHPs that none of the others provided.

 

I agree. Maybe Smith will be the better overall player in a vacuum, maybe not, but I think Moreland is a better fit for our team.

[Kimmi]

I trade Buchholz for Smith before signing Moreland any day. But while I don't like the Moreland solution over a few other alternatives, I really can't sit here and pretend this particular choice of stopgap lefty bat is going to be the death nail of the 2017 season...

 

I disagree about Smith over Moreland, as I think Moreland fit the team's needs better. Were there better alternatives to Moreland? Perhaps, but as you said, his signing will not make or break our season.