A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have added righty Kyle Martin and lefty Luis Ysla to their 40-man roster, per a club announcement.

 

Than makes 40.

 

Listed my 40 man roster seniority (year added):

 

2006: Pedey

2007: Buch

2012: Wright, Vaz, Holt

2013: JBJ, Workman, Bogey, Brentz

2014: Betts, Hembree, Kelly, Barnes, Swihart, Shaw, ERod, Pablo, HanRam, Porcello

2015: Ross, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Kimbrel, Jerez, Hernandez, Young, Price, Smith, Elias

2016: Leon, Pomeranz, Abad, Beni, Holaday, Scott, K Martin, Ysla

 

Interesting notes:

About a third of the 40 man roster (13 players) were added since Dec 2015

Robbie Ross is the man in the middle by seniority and he was added in Jan 2015.

There's not a single player on the 40 man roster who was added between Aug 2007 (Buch) and July 2012 (Wright). That's about 4 years!

Seems odd to think of Wright as our 3rd most senior player and Holt as our 5th most senior player.

 

Here's my take on who might be on "the bubble". They may be traded or DFA'd to make room for acquisitions:

(options remaining)

 

1. Brentz (0)

2. Holaday (0)

3. Marrero (1)

4. N Ramirez (1)

5. W Jerez (2)

6. Workman (2)

7. Elias (0)

8. Abad (0)

 

Not much concern on Rule 5 this year. The following players will be eligible for the December 2016 Rule 5 Draft:

 

Danny Bethea, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Carlos Coste, Ryan Court, Allen Craig, Jacob Dahlstrand, Jake Drehoff, Jeff Driskel, Jeffry Fernandez, Pat Goetze, Reed Gragnani, Taylor Grover, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Anyelo LeClerc, Tzu-Wei Lin, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Mike McCarthy, Daniel McGrath, Simon Mercedes, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Edgar Olmos, Yankory Pimentel, Tim Roberson, Javier Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Dioscar Romero, Ramses Rosario, Jose Sermo, Teddy Stankiewicz, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems, Jantzen Witte

 

Minor League Free Agents this winter:

 

Mario Alcantara, Mitch Atkins, Brennan Boesch, Dan Butler, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Cody Decker, Chris Dominguez, Nate Freiman, Ryan LaMarre, Roman Mendez, Carlos Mesa, Sean O'Sullivan, Henry Ramos, Rainel Rosario, Ali Solis, David Sopilka

[Wade Boggs]

Of these three plans, which one would you take (or none). Let's not argue about whether the team would accept the trade or not, let's just choose the one we like best or none of the above.

 

1) Sign EE ($105M/5 with a 6th year team option at $15M with a $5M buyout- making it a $110M/5 of 120/6M deal)

Sign Greg Holland ($20M/2)

Trade: TShaw, Johnson, Basabe & Barnes to CWS for Todd Frazier & David Robertson

 

2) Sign Justin Turner ($85M/5)

Sign Rich Hill ($50M/3)

Trade Moncada, Pomeranz, ERod & Hembree to CWS for Chris Sale & David Robertson

 

3) Sign Rich Hill ($50M/3)

Sign M Melancon ($50M/4)

Sign C Beltran ($25M/2)

Trade JBJ, Moncada, Pomeranz, Owens & Barnes to CWS for Chris Sale, David Robertson & Todd Frazier

 

4) Sign Beltran ($25M/2)

Sign Greg Holland ($20M/2)

Trade: TShaw, Johnson, Basabe & Barnes to CWS for Todd Frazier & David Robertson

 

5) None of the above

 

#4. throw in a trade for Wade Davis and that is what's going down. With the Yankees dealing McCann they have money to blow on Beltran. I think the number one goal for them is Chapman. No way I pay Melancon that. I would just overpay for Jansen. I want Beltran signed , just so DD doesn't overpay for EE which I know would be a mistake.

[moonslav59]

#4. throw in a trade for Wade Davis and that is what's going down. With the Yankees dealing McCann they have money to blow on Beltran. I think the number one goal for them is Chapman. No way I pay Melancon that. I would just overpay for Jansen. I want Beltran signed , just so DD doesn't overpay for EE which I know would be a mistake.

 

I could see number 4 with a Davis trade.

[moonslav59]

What if the budget didn't matter, and we went all out to win next year, but still kept the future somewhat in mind?

 

Sign EE $110m/6

Sign Turner $90M/5

Sign G Holland $20M/2

 

Trade: Moncada, Pomeranz (They can flip him.), TShaw, Owens, Hembree & Swihart

For: Chris Sale & David Robertson

 

The 2017 Red Sox Roster

1. Beni LF

2. Pedey 2B

3. Betts RF

4. EE DH

5. HanRam 1B

6. Turner 3B

7. Bogey SS

8. JBJ CF

9. Leon

Bench: Young (LF/DH), Vaz ©, Holt (IF/OF), Pablo (3B/1B/DH) [AAA: Hernandez, Travis, Holaday, Basabe, Marrero]

 

SP1. Sale

SP2. Porcello

SP3. Price

SP4. ERod

SP5. Wright

SP6. Buch (long relief) [AAA:Johnson, Haley, Kopech]

Closer: Kimbrel

RP2. Holland

RP3. Robertson

RP4. CSmith

RP5. Kelly

RP6. Ross [AAA: Barnes, Scott, Elias, Martin, Workman]

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Maybe I was right about the CWS possibly going into full rebuild mode:

 

White Sox Willing To Trade Any Player With Less Than Four Years Of Control

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/white-sox-willing-to-trade-any-player-with-less-than-four-years-of-control.html

 

 

"...It remains to be seen if the Sox are planning to embark on a full-scale rebuild, though as Olney notes, other teams are becoming and more convinced that Sale will be traded this winter. “And once you trade him, why would you stop there?”

[moonslav59]

By Connor Byrne | November 19, 2016 at 10:07pm CDT

 

The White Sox are willing to listen to offers for just about all of their players, and industry sources regard them and the Dodgers as perfect trading partners, according to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan (Twitter links). Ace Chris Sale, third baseman Todd Frazier and closer David Robertson are among the players Chicago could move, and all of them fit the Dodgers’ needs, notes Passan. Meanwhile, the White Sox like several Dodgers – outfielder Yasiel Puig and prospects Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, Jose DeLeon and Willie Calhoun – so it seems the two sides could line up for some sort of deal this offseason.

 

These are the three guys I thought fit the Sox needs.

 

An ace.

A set-up man.

A one year 3Bman.

 

If we sign Beltran for LF and move Beni to CF, we could include JBJ. If not, including Moncada would defeat the purpose of Frazier as a bridge to Moncada, but I guess Devers could be ready by 2018.

 

They may insist on JBJ and Moncada plus more, but assuming we can get by with just giving one, but then ERod, Kopech or Groome would almost certainly have to be part of it. Are either of these offers good enough (or too much) for Sale, Robertson & Frazier?

 

A: JBJ, Pomeranz (can be flipped), Shaw, Swihart, Barnes, Owens (or Johnson)

 

B: JBJ, Devers, Pomeranz, Swihart, Barnes, Owens (or Johnson)

 

C: Moncada, Pomeranz, Basabe, Swihart, Barnes, Owens (or Shaw)

 

D: Moncada, ERod or Kopech, Basabe, Swihart, Owens

 

 

[southpaw777]

By Connor Byrne | November 19, 2016 at 10:07pm CDT

 

The White Sox are willing to listen to offers for just about all of their players, and industry sources regard them and the Dodgers as perfect trading partners, according to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan (Twitter links). Ace Chris Sale, third baseman Todd Frazier and closer David Robertson are among the players Chicago could move, and all of them fit the Dodgers’ needs, notes Passan. Meanwhile, the White Sox like several Dodgers – outfielder Yasiel Puig and prospects Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, Jose DeLeon and Willie Calhoun – so it seems the two sides could line up for some sort of deal this offseason.

 

These are the three guys I thought fit the Sox needs.

 

An ace.

A set-up man.

A one year 3Bman.

 

If we sign Beltran for LF and move Beni to CF, we could include JBJ. If not, including Moncada would defeat the purpose of Frazier as a bridge to Moncada, but I guess Devers could be ready by 2018.

 

They may insist on JBJ and Moncada plus more, but assuming we can get by with just giving one, but then ERod, Kopech or Groome would almost certainly have to be part of it. Are either of these offers good enough (or too much) for Sale, Robertson & Frazier?

 

A: JBJ, Pomeranz (can be flipped), Shaw, Swihart, Barnes, Owens (or Johnson)

 

B: JBJ, Devers, Pomeranz, Swihart, Barnes, Owens (or Johnson)

 

C: Moncada, Pomeranz, Basabe, Swihart, Barnes, Owens (or Shaw)

 

D: Moncada, ERod or Kopech, Basabe, Swihart, Owens

 

 

 

Im thinking they may want another young LHP like ERod along with Moncada and JBJ. Thats a nice start for Sale and maybe add another piece or two to add another player to the deal..

I hold on tightly to Kopech and Groome right now. Theyre the only decent RHP prospects right now it the top 10.

Of course there will be lower level players like Shaw or Owens that can/will be added if there are more players added by CWS...we could even use Travis or Doubon...

Edited November 20, 2016 by southpaw777

[oldtimer]

By Connor Byrne | November 19, 2016 at 10:07pm CDT

 

The White Sox are willing to listen to offers for just about all of their players, and industry sources regard them and the Dodgers as perfect trading partners, according to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan (Twitter links). Ace Chris Sale, third baseman Todd Frazier and closer David Robertson are among the players Chicago could move, and all of them fit the Dodgers’ needs, notes Passan. Meanwhile, the White Sox like several Dodgers – outfielder Yasiel Puig and prospects Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, Jose DeLeon and Willie Calhoun – so it seems the two sides could line up for some sort of deal this offseason.

 

These are the three guys I thought fit the Sox needs.

 

An ace.

A set-up man.

A one year 3Bman.

 

If we sign Beltran for LF and move Beni to CF, we could include JBJ. If not, including Moncada would defeat the purpose of Frazier as a bridge to Moncada, but I guess Devers could be ready by 2018.

 

They may insist on JBJ and Moncada plus more, but assuming we can get by with just giving one, but then ERod, Kopech or Groome would almost certainly have to be part of it. Are either of these offers good enough (or too much) for Sale, Robertson & Frazier?

 

A: JBJ, Pomeranz (can be flipped), Shaw, Swihart, Barnes, Owens (or Johnson)

 

B: JBJ, Devers, Pomeranz, Swihart, Barnes, Owens (or Johnson)

 

C: Moncada, Pomeranz, Basabe, Swihart, Barnes, Owens (or Shaw)

 

D: Moncada, ERod or Kopech, Basabe, Swihart, Owens

 

 

 

Maybe we could trade our entire team for the White Sox team? Lets just sit back and take a breath and see what happens.

[southpaw777]

Maybe we could trade our entire team for the White Sox team? Lets just sit back and take a breath and see what happens.

 

Not with Moon my friend...he is the king of trade proposals...I actually enjoy going back and forth with him about some of his trade ideas...not that I think all of it is actually probable, its still fun.

[Dojji]

THat surprises me. The White Sox aren't that far from contention -- a couple good signings and they're right in it. Basically they just need to improve their lineup a little

[Kimmi]

Maybe we could trade our entire team for the White Sox team? Lets just sit back and take a breath and see what happens.

 

LOL That was funny.

 

There are so many players that could be available and so many trade scenarios that might be possible that it's hard for me to speculate about different trade scenarios. I have no idea who GMs are willing to part with and what their asking price is.

 

It's fine to speculate, but I'd rather wait for a trade to happen, then analyze it in terms of how we made out. It's a lot easier to do when you know who the exact pieces are.

[moonslav59]

Im thinking they may want another young LHP like ERod along with Moncada and JBJ. Thats a nice start for Sale and maybe add another piece or two to add another player to the deal..

 

They may start with that, but no way they get that or anything like that from us or LAD or ATL.

 

It may take a foundation of 2 from JBJ, Moncada or ERod, but to get two of these guys, I'd insist on Robertson & Frazier too.

[moonslav59]

Not with Moon my friend...he is the king of trade proposals...I actually enjoy going back and forth with him about some of his trade ideas...not that I think all of it is actually probable, its still fun.

 

I love talking about trade and free agent signing possibilities. I know it's all speculation, but to me, it's better to discuss future possibilities than rehashing what went wrong in 2016.

[notin]

Trade speculation about Sale is fun, but unlikely. And while I normally hate discussing character, in the case of Sale I am starting to wonder if his tantrum-filled season hasn't indirectly destroyed the White Sox from within.

 

I actually expect minimal activity from Boston, including no starting pitchers. They're too expensive in this market and Pomeranz, much as I am not impressed with him, was undoubtedly acquired with 2017 in mind.

 

A DH not likely from Toronto, a reliever or two, and (hopefully) a third baseman, although most likely just a right-handed hitting one.

 

And hopefully the cash not spent is used instead to extend Betts, Bradley and Bogaerts. ..

[notin]

I also expect almost no movement from the Sox until the new CBA is worked out

[moonslav59]

Trade speculation about Sale is fun, but unlikely. And while I normally hate discussing character, in the case of Sale I am starting to wonder if his tantrum-filled season hasn't indirectly destroyed the White Sox from within.

 

I actually expect minimal activity from Boston, including no starting pitchers. They're too expensive in this market and Pomeranz, much as I am not impressed with him, was undoubtedly acquired with 2017 in mind.

 

A DH not likely from Toronto, a reliever or two, and (hopefully) a third baseman, although most likely just a right-handed hitting one.

 

And hopefully the cash not spent is used instead to extend Betts, Bradley and Bogaerts. ..

 

Good to hear your input.

 

I do think the Pomeranz trade pretty much stopped out search for a true ace. One morere ason I disliked the trade.

 

I agree. I think we wait to see what the luxury tax limit will be and act accordingly.

 

Maybe we sign Beltran and G Holland and wait to the deadline for any major trades.

[Bellhorn04]

I do think the Pomeranz trade pretty much stopped out search for a true ace. One morere ason I disliked the trade.

 

Maybe they thought we didn't need another 'true ace'. They already had one CYA winner, now they have two.

[moonslav59]

Maybe they thought we didn't need another 'true ace'. They already had one CYA winner, now they have two.

 

Oh, I get why they made the trade. It certainly made us a much better team on paper for 2.5 more years.

 

I like the six starters we have right now. All six had a top 30 half season this year. Porcello nearly had two top 30 half seasons.

 

I don't think an ace is our top priority, but I do think that when a guy like Sale comes up, we should more than kick the tires. I wish we had Espi to add to the package, as I don't think Pomeranz would fit into their plans.

[cp176]

On the record - I did not dislike the Pomeranz trade!

[moonslav59]

This from MLBTR...

 

Here’s more from Kepner:

 

Shortening the regular season has garnered consideration during negotiations, but the schedule will remain at 162 games in the next agreement. In order to ease the players’ workload, the league and the union could agree to lengthen the season from 183 days to 187, per Kepner.

Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported earlier this month that expanding rosters from 25 to 26 players was a possibility, and that’s likely to come to fruition, according to Kepner. Moreover, 40-man rosters in September will unsurprisingly go by the wayside in favor of a 28- or 29-man limit.

The $189MM luxury-tax threshold is set to increase, though it’s unknown how much it’ll rise. That change will have a positive effect on big-spending teams that have been reluctant to exceed the $189MM figure. Bumping the number up from $189MM isn’t ideal for teams that have lesser budgets, of course, but Kepner argues that it’s not necessarily cause for despair. Since the current CBA took effect after the 2011 season, 21 of the majors’ 30 teams have made the playoffs, Kepner points out.

Owners continue pushing for the implementation of an international draft, but the MLBPA is “deeply skeptical,” Kepner writes. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported in October that a 10-round proposal was on the table for March 2018.

[mvp 78]

What is even a realistic trade for Sale, Frazier and Robertson?

 

JBJ, Moncada, Owens, Groome, Basabe? Is that even enough?

[Bellhorn04]

I think I might prefer to trade for Quintana if the cost is reasonable.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I think I might prefer to trade for Quintana if the cost is reasonable.

 

I think the cost for Quintana could be higher than the cost for Sale, as it sounds like Quintana is the one guy the White Sox don't want to move. That probably eliminates "reasonable."

[moonslav59]

I think I might prefer to trade for Quintana if the cost is reasonable.

 

I've always likes Quintana more than Sale and the extra year puts the icing on the cake.

[moonslav59]

What is even a realistic trade for Sale, Frazier and Robertson?

 

JBJ, Moncada, Owens, Groome, Basabe? Is that even enough?

 

Add Swihart and Hembree or Barnes and I think they might give us Quintana, Robertson & Frazier.

 

By giving up JBJ, I might want to try to sub Devers for Moncada, so maybe Moncada can play LF after Young's year is up (assuming Beni moves to CF). But, in one year we'll have a hole at 3B again as Frazier's deal is up.

 

The other thing this trade does is give us 7 starting pitchers. That gives us enormous further trading stock.

[moonslav59]

Toronto apparently offered EE $80M/4 before signing Morales.

 

Gotta think he'll get more than that.

 

Wait to see what Jason Castro gets for a contract. Reportedly, he has multiple 3 year deals on the table. I hear a lot about how Vaz can't hit. How Leon had a lucky streak and can't hit either. How Swihart may be able to hit, but he can't field well. Well, let's look at Castro's numbers over the last three years, and when he signs, you'll see what I mean about how catchers are in very high demand these days, even if their value may be speculative more than proven.

 

Out of 31 catchers with 800+ PAs since 2014, Castro places 28th in OPS at .660. That's worse than AJ Pierzynski, Suzuki and Salty! He's beenne ar the wrost starting catcher on offense for 3 years.

 

Fangraphs does have him rated 12th in defense (out of 35 with 1500 innings in the last 3 years combined). He ranks 20th in DRS (zero), He's 9th out 13 with 2500+ innings. At best, he's near average on defense.

 

Just watch what he gets.

 

Don't think Swihart's value is so low.

 

Edited November 22, 2016 by moonslav59

[southpaw777]

Trade speculation about Sale is fun, but unlikely. And while I normally hate discussing character, in the case of Sale I am starting to wonder if his tantrum-filled season hasn't indirectly destroyed the White Sox from within.

 

I actually expect minimal activity from Boston, including no starting pitchers. They're too expensive in this market and Pomeranz, much as I am not impressed with him, was undoubtedly acquired with 2017 in mind.

 

A DH not likely from Toronto, a reliever or two, and (hopefully) a third baseman, although most likely just a right-handed hitting one.

 

And hopefully the cash not spent is used instead to extend Betts, Bradley and Bogaerts. ..

 

Im with you on this. I dont see much movement as well. Couple bp arms, maybe a short term deal like Beltran if hes not too expensive...other than that I dont see a big splash move this winter either.

[southpaw777]

Add Swihart and Hembree or Barnes and I think they might give us Quintana, Robertson & Frazier.

 

By giving up JBJ, I might want to try to sub Devers for Moncada, so maybe Moncada can play LF after Young's year is up (assuming Beni moves to CF). But, in one year we'll have a hole at 3B again as Frazier's deal is up.

 

The other thing this trade does is give us 7 starting pitchers. That gives us enormous further trading stock.

 

If the Sox give up Sale they will want a MLB ready or near ready guy to take his spot..ERod seems the most logical. Good young controlled LHP who can hit 95+. We wouldnt need 4 LHP in our rotation either so it works out perfectly for both teams.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox give up Sale they will want a MLB ready or near ready guy to take his spot..ERod seems the most logical. Good young controlled LHP who can hit 95+. We wouldnt need 4 LHP in our rotation either so it works out perfectly for both teams.

 

If they insist on JBJ, then they'd probably want ERod over Groome and others, but they might be looking further down the road.

[notin]

On the record - I did not dislike the Pomeranz trade!

 

I hated it. Not so much for giving up Espinoza, but for getting a pitcher with a shaky career already over his career high in IP...