A Realistic View at 2017 Part I

[Dojji]

I hated it. Not so much for giving up Espinoza, but for getting a pitcher with a shaky career already over his career high in IP...

 

You got that information from someone who didn't bother to check Pomeranz' minor league innings pitched. Pomeranz was not at his career high in innings pitched when we acquired him, because pitcing in the minors is still pitching, and he'd surpassed that inning total between the majors and the minors the year before.

[notin]

You got that information from someone who didn't bother to check Pomeranz' minor league innings pitched. Pomeranz was not at his career high in innings pitched when we acquired him, because pitcing in the minors is still pitching, and he'd surpassed that inning total between the majors and the minors the year before.

 

Minor league IP really isn't the same as major league IP.

 

As a generalization, hitters have worse discipline and take fewer pitches, draw fewer walks and, well, get fewer hits. This is why many of them are still in the minors. Sure there are some legitimate hitters on the rise, but there are also many AAAA players who peak there. While not completely useless or disregarded, I also don't think they can be straight up compared to MLB IP one to one...

[Dojji]

When it comes to wear and tear on the arm, minor league IP is *EXACTLY* the same as major league IP. A good pitcher doesn't pitch differently just because it's the minors he's pitching in.

[notin]

When it comes to wear and tear on the arm, minor league IP is *EXACTLY* the same as major league IP. A good pitcher doesn't pitch differently just because it's the minors he's pitching in.

 

Not about pitching differently. But because he is facing overall weaker hitters, he gets through each inning on average with fewer pitches.

 

Check out WHIP for most pitchers in the majors and minors, and typically they have better numbers in the minors (except for sinker ball pitchers, who usually do worse). Fewer baserunners is a big part of fewer pitches...

[moonslav59]

I hated it. Not so much for giving up Espinoza, but for getting a pitcher with a shaky career already over his career high in IP...

 

The small sample size of success was tempting.I actually like Pom, but to me, it was all about Espi, and not so much that I want to never trade him or other prospects, but he might have saved us from having to give up ERod or Kopech to get Sale or Quintana.

 

If you're going to trade a guy like Espi, we should be looking at an ace or high impact player, not a guy with a 3 slot ceiling. I guess I've come full circle and am being critical of Pom.

[cp176]

I hated it. Not so much for giving up Espinoza, but for getting a pitcher with a shaky career already over his career high in IP...

 

And the good news is that you are certainly entitled to your opinion. i liked it because we were getting a young lefty who had already experienced success at the ml level. I am very excited to see what he can do in the future for us. Plus the fact I think that Dombrowski actually knows something about the importance of pitching.

[cp176]

The small sample size of success was tempting.I actually like Pom, but to me, it was all about Espi, and not so much that I want to never trade him or other prospects, but he might have saved us from having to give up ERod or Kopech to get Sale or Quintana.

 

If you're going to trade a guy like Espi, we should be looking at an ace or high impact player, not a guy with a 3 slot ceiling. I guess I've come full circle and am being critical of Pom.

 

Based on what tends to happen to highly proclaimed prospects often times, what do you think the odds are of Espinoza becoming that totr guy some are saying he might become?

[moonslav59]

Plus the fact I think that Dombrowski actually knows something about the importance of pitching.

 

Espi is a pitcher.

[moonslav59]

Based on what tends to happen to highly proclaimed prospects often times, what do you think the odds are of Espinoza becoming that totr guy some are saying he might become?

 

Not many pitchers rise to his ranking at his age.

 

While that value is highly speculative, it is value nonetheless. The fact that it was far away value, makes it easier for some to just shake it off, but every great pitcher was once "far away value".

 

To answer you question, I'd put his odds somewhere close to this:

 

10% Cy Young competitive for 5+ years.

23% Top of rotation quality

[33% chance of being TOR]

 

33% chance of being a solid 2 or 3 slot pitcher for 5+ yrs of control (which is Pom's ceiling for 2.3 yrs of control).

 

23% chance of being a 4-5 slot starter.

 

10% chance of not making an impact at all.

 

 

I wouldn't argue against this...

 

20% TOR for 5+ yrs

30% 2-3 starter for 5+ yrs

35% 4-5 starter for 5+ yrs

15% not much impact, if any

____________________________________

 

I put Pom's chances as such (for 2.3 years of team control:

5% being an ace

40% being a 2-3

45% being a 4-5

10% getting hurt or being minimal impact

Edited November 22, 2016 by moonslav59

[notin]

And the good news is that you are certainly entitled to your opinion. i liked it because we were getting a young lefty who had already experienced success at the ml level. I am very excited to see what he can do in the future for us. Plus the fact I think that Dombrowski actually knows something about the importance of pitching.

 

Who doesn't?

 

But bear in mind, he also gave up lesser prospects for half a season of David Price when he as in Detroit.

 

 

Really, the SP market was thin and someone had to be acquired. The Sox needed SP help. I was OK giving up Espinoza, but I didn't like Pomeranz and figured him to be the major leaguer most likely to collapse in the second half. He didn't completely collapse, but he wasn't impressive.

[cp176]

Plus the fact I think that Dombrowski actually knows something about the importance of pitching.

 

Espi is a pitcher.

 

Moon - really - are you trying to be a little wise with me here?

[Dojji]

Plus the fact I think that Dombrowski actually knows something about the importance of pitching.

 

Espi is a pitcher.

 

No, Espi might be a pitcher. That's what prospect means. We'll see if he's a pitcher when he's done dominating kids who can't drink yet.

[cp176]

Not many pitchers rise to his ranking at his age.

 

While that value is highly speculative, it is value nonetheless. The fact that it was far away value, makes it easier for some to just shake it off, but every great pitcher was once "far away value".

 

To answer you question, I'd put his odds somewhere close to this:

 

10% Cy Young competitive for 5+ years.

23% Top of rotation quality

[33% chance of being TOR]

 

33% chance of being a solid 2 or 3 slot pitcher for 5+ yrs of control (which is Pom's ceiling for 2.3 yrs of control).

 

23% chance of being a 4-5 slot starter.

 

10% chance of not making an impact at all.

 

 

I wouldn't argue against this...

 

20% TOR for 5+ yrs

30% 2-3 starter for 5+ yrs

35% 4-5 starter for 5+ yrs

15% not much impact, if any

____________________________________

 

I put Pom's chances as such (for 2.3 years of team control:

5% being an ace

40% being a 2-3

45% being a 4-5

10% getting hurt or being minimal impact

 

 

I asked for your opinion here. I realize it is a bit slanted. I really hope the best for Espinoza but I would be much more upset if some young arm closer to actually pitching at them level - say a Kopech- was traded away. Saying that Pomeranz very well might be a solid 2/3 (although DD thinks he could be better) is a far better bet for me personally than saying an 18 year old is going to be a totr pitcher in five years. Too much can go wrong. I'm just not much of a gambler.

[cp176]

No, Espi might be a pitcher. That's what prospect means. We'll see if he's a pitcher when he's done dominating kids who can't drink yet.

 

 

Doji - has he dominated anyone yet?

[cp176]

Who doesn't?

 

But bear in mind, he also gave up lesser prospects for half a season of David Price when he as in Detroit.

 

 

Really, the SP market was thin and someone had to be acquired. The Sox needed SP help. I was OK giving up Espinoza, but I didn't like Pomeranz and figured him to be the major leaguer most likely to collapse in the second half. He didn't completely collapse, but he wasn't impressive.

 

I saw Pomeranz pitch this summer and very much liked what I saw. I still think that the potential for him to be a very solid contributor is right there.

[notin]

No, Espi might be a pitcher. That's what prospect means. We'll see if he's a pitcher when he's done dominating kids who can't drink yet.

 

So you'll be more impressed with him when he dominates people who've been drinking?

[cp176]

Doji - has he dominated anyone yet?

 

 

This is what gets me though really. An 18 year old pitcher who really is just starting out. It isn't as though he has been particularly impressive. I know that this will encourage all sorts of negative lash back telling my how young he is, how inexperienced he is .... No need I get that. I will say though that for someone who has been projected as some type of future phenom, we are going to have to all wait a few years. Not seeing it just yet. We are just hearing about it. I would rather see it. Kind of like when we all got super excited about Kopech's one pitch (105). Other than the fact that he can throw hard, it doesn't say much.

[moonslav59]

Moon - really - are you trying to be a little wise with me here?

 

Guilty

[moonslav59]

Doji - has he dominated anyone yet?

 

Anybody have a list of 18 year SP'ers who made the top 12 rankings over MLB history?

 

I'm curious about 2 things:

 

1) How many have there been?

 

2) Out of the few that have been, how did they do?

[Dojji]

So you'll be more impressed with him when he dominates people who've been drinking?

 

lol. But seriously -- if they were drinking legally, the answer is yes. More than one big leaguer has had a great game while drunk or stoned or high on something, if the talent is there, it's there. If Espi can beat the 21-22 year old talent bracket, that's the time when I'll start being super interested in what he can do.

[cp176]

Anybody have a list of 18 year SP'ers who made the top 12 rankings over MLB history?

 

I'm curious about 2 things:

 

1) How many have there been?

 

2) Out of the few that have been, how did they do?

 

That is my point.

[notin]

This is what gets me though really. An 18 year old pitcher who really is just starting out. It isn't as though he has been particularly impressive. I know that this will encourage all sorts of negative lash back telling my how young he is, how inexperienced he is .... No need I get that. I will say though that for someone who has been projected as some type of future phenom, we are going to have to all wait a few years. Not seeing it just yet. We are just hearing about it. I would rather see it. Kind of like when we all got super excited about Kopech's one pitch (105). Other than the fact that he can throw hard, it doesn't say much.

 

And according to Keith Law, Kopech doesn't even throw that hard. Occasional triple digits, yes. But apparently the 105 may be more legend than reality

[Spudboy]

So you'll be more impressed with him when he dominates people who've been drinking?

 

I'll volunteer to bat against him in BP.

 

Where did I put my Chocolate Vodka?

[Spudboy]

And according to Keith Law, Kopech doesn't even throw that hard. Occasional triple digits, yes. But apparently the 105 may be more legend than reality

 

I never did see the Gyro ball.

[moonslav59]

That is my point.

 

Mine too!

[Bellhorn04]

Mine too!

 

But your point was 2 questions.

[moonslav59]

But your point was 2 questions.

 

Yup.

[moonslav59]

The Twins have reached agreement on a contract with free agent catcher Jason Castro, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Castro will receive a three-year deal with over $24MM guaranteed, per the report. The exact guarantee is $24.5MM, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports ...

 

The guy ranks something like 28th out of 30 in catcher OPS from 2014-2016 combined. He's not known for great d either.

 

The state of catching these days is sad.

Edited November 23, 2016 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Some issues with the contract negotiations... There's talk of a lock-out...

 

....The key matters yet to be determined are, however, rather notable. According to Rosenthal, the owners offered to get rid of any tying of free agents to draft compensation (as currently embodied in the qualifying offer system), but requested an international draft in exchange. The union, it seems, has lined up behind the idea that the draft would be too onerous.

 

There’s also disagreement regarding the competitive-balance tax and the Joint Drug Agreement. As to the former issue, it seems largely a matter of divvying up dollars and figuring out ways to ensure that teams put any subsidies into their major league roster. With regard to the latter, it seems that all are agreed on the need to add force to the JDA, but the players are asking to be compensated in exchange.....

[harmony]

The Twins have reached agreement on a contract with free agent catcher Jason Castro, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Castro will receive a three-year deal with over $24MM guaranteed, per the report. The exact guarantee is $24.5MM, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports ...

 

The guy ranks something like 28th out of 30 in catcher OPS from 2014-2016 combined. He's not known for great d either.

 

The state of catching these days is sad.

Jason Castro was among baseball's best pitch framers this year:

 

http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

 

... and has been valued at $32.7 million over the past three seasons (after being valued at $32.2 million in 2013 alone):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8722&position=C#value

 

Castro would likely be the Opening Day catcher for the Red Sox in 2017.