Looking ahead to 2017

[S5Dewey]

Basically we are standing pat, so why don't you assume for sake of argument that they also stand pat. Maybe you can use little brain and say something like, well if Blue Jays resign so and so, etc, they would win the division.....or you can just ignore and not participate in the discussion.

 

??

I don't see us standing pat. With the loss of Papi standing pat essentially means declining and I don't see DD doing that. IMO he'll be active in trying to find a way to replace some of Papi's offense, reload the bullpen, explore getting another starting pitcher, and definitely doing something about the situation at 3B. Even if that means putting Sandoval at 3B that's not really standing pat.

[Dojji]

Of course they are. After one WS run, they're the mark of true excellence...

 

I'm a fan of the Royals as well as the Red Sox. I think of their players because I like their players. Nothing wrong with that. But the key here is to bring in playoff veterans. If you want to make suggestions on how to do that that don't involve my player fetishes I'm all ears.

[moonslav59]

??

I don't see us standing pat. With the loss of Papi standing pat essentially means declining and I don't see DD doing that. IMO he'll be active in trying to find a way to replace some of Papi's offense, reload the bullpen, explore getting another starting pitcher, and definitely doing something about the situation at 3B. Even if that means putting Sandoval at 3B that's not really standing pat.

 

If standing pat means we do absolutely nothing, then there's absolutely no way that will happen.

 

We had a weak pen all year until September. We will be losing Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. To me, standing pat would mean at least replacing these three in kind. That has to be the minimum.

 

We should be able to pick up 2 very good RP'ers and still be under the luxury tax. That means "the minimum" would also mean making some sort of move to get a DH or corner IF'er, even if just as a bridge to 2018 (Moncada/Devers/Travis).

 

I can't imagine anything less than maybe signing Chapman, Jansen or Melancon plus a decent RP'er like Logan Boone, and then maybe trading for Tood Frazier. We could also trade for Robertson & Frazier and then sign Melancon.

 

Is that going to make us close to even with this year's team?

 

Of course, on paper, it doesn't make up for Papi, Uehara, Zeigler & Tazawa, but if you also count full seasons from Beni, Pomeranz, Carson Smith, Swihart, and maybe Moncada having an impact, then I think we'll maybe approach a similar record.

 

Yes, we may easily have more injuries and/or down seasons, but there still is a lot to be hopeful about.

 

[Dojji]

If Theo or CHerington were in charge I'd think we might sit tight and let the young core grow in place, and that one of those two would settle for bringing in patches around the regular talent -- a veteran here, a AAAA guy there, to sort of fill in any gaps created due to injury and whatnot -- and balance the team based around giving the kids as much room to grow as possible.

 

With DD I'm not so sure of that. He knows how important it is to let the youth breathe and start to fill the gaps in leadership without crowding them out with new veterans but he also knows we're tarn close to creating a really special team. I think DD will do his usual, pick a couple guys to target that will, in his opinion, substantially improve the team, and spend whatever it takes to put us over the top.

 

The tricky bit is he might decide that what we need is not a hitter -- for example, he takes a look at our rotation and decides he needs to go over the top again for an ace -- and brings in Felix Hernandez who's as possible a trade target this offseason as he's likely ever going to be, going into his age 31 year, is very expensive, quite a few miles on his arm, and playing for a team that is going nowhere and maybe wants a crack at a winner before his arm falls off. These are things we just can't know yet so we have no idea what is possible.

[cp176]

If Theo or CHerington were in charge I'd think we might sit tight and let the young core grow in place, and that one of those two would settle for bringing in patches around the regular talent -- a veteran here, a AAAA guy there, to sort of fill in any gaps created due to injury and whatnot -- and balance the team based around giving the kids as much room to grow as possible.

 

With DD I'm not so sure of that. He knows how important it is to let the youth breathe and start to fill the gaps in leadership without crowding them out with new veterans but he also knows we're tarn close to creating a really special team. I think DD will do his usual, pick a couple guys to target that will, in his opinion, substantially improve the team, and spend whatever it takes to put us over the top.

 

The tricky bit is he might decide that what we need is not a hitter -- for example, he takes a look at our rotation and decides he needs to go over the top again for an ace -- and brings in Felix Hernandez who's as possible a trade target this offseason as he's likely ever going to be, going into his age 31 year, is very expensive, quite a few miles on his arm, and playing for a team that is going nowhere and maybe wants a crack at a winner before his arm falls off. These are things we just can't know yet so we have no idea what is possible.

 

I think that you are right.

 

he might do 0 as well - i don't expect that though - not in his DNA

[southpaw777]

If standing pat means we do absolutely nothing, then there's absolutely no way that will happen.

 

We had a weak pen all year until September. We will be losing Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. To me, standing pat would mean at least replacing these three in kind. That has to be the minimum.

 

We should be able to pick up 2 very good RP'ers and still be under the luxury tax. That means "the minimum" would also mean making some sort of move to get a DH or corner IF'er, even if just as a bridge to 2018 (Moncada/Devers/Travis).

 

I can't imagine anything less than maybe signing Chapman, Jansen or Melancon plus a decent RP'er like Logan Boone, and then maybe trading for Tood Frazier. We could also trade for Robertson & Frazier and then sign Melancon.

 

Is that going to make us close to even with this year's team?

 

Of course, on paper, it doesn't make up for Papi, Uehara, Zeigler & Tazawa, but if you also count full seasons from Beni, Pomeranz, Carson Smith, Swihart, and maybe Moncada having an impact, then I think we'll maybe approach a similar record.

 

Yes, we may easily have more injuries and/or down seasons, but there still is a lot to be hopeful about.

 

 

Carson Smith is probably counting as one of those guys Moon. He may bring back Koji for low money, which wouldnt bother me either. Kimbrel, Smith, Barnes seem like the main guys next year as it stands right now. Not sure who they consider their main LHP. That may be something DD addresses first in the pen.

I think he could sign one main piece and then do the usual of throwing a bunch of guys at the wall and see who sticks. We have a few, what seem to be, decent possibilities on the farm.

[southpaw777]

Im hearing Moncada will be playing a couple positions, not just 3b. He very well could end up in the OF, with one of our three right now being moved. Pablo is probably going to get a fair shot at the starting 3b in 2017 since nobody really stood out. If his fat ass comes in with a much better attitude and he takes full responsibility for how he f***ed the team over the last couple years not being in shape and performs well, then im sure RSN will forgive him. I dont trust him and I cant stand his "meh, whatever" type attitude.

Really, besides the pen and maybe a move for a starter Im not sure theres a huge need to go get a Bautista/EE type...thats gonna cost a LOT of $$ for a DH...Hanley is your 1b so no, that position is NOT open.

The starting nine is pretty much set already, save for b. But we have options already in house with Pablo coming back.

Shouldnt be a overly busy offseason like last year, but I wouldnt put it past DD to make a big trade. I just dont see a big FA signing, but more a trade. I can also see a couple of those involving certain players that would upset a few fans here.

[moonslav59]

Im hearing Moncada will be playing a couple positions, not just 3b. He very well could end up in the OF, with one of our three right now being moved. Pablo is probably going to get a fair shot at the starting 3b in 2017 since nobody really stood out. If his fat ass comes in with a much better attitude and he takes full responsibility for how he f***ed the team over the last couple years not being in shape and performs well, then im sure RSN will forgive him. I dont trust him and I cant stand his "meh, whatever" type attitude.

Really, besides the pen and maybe a move for a starter Im not sure theres a huge need to go get a Bautista/EE type...thats gonna cost a LOT of $$ for a DH...Hanley is your 1b so no, that position is NOT open.

The starting nine is pretty much set already, save for 3B. But we have options already in house with Pablo coming back.

Shouldnt be a overly busy offseason like last year, but I wouldnt put it past DD to make a big trade. I just dont see a big FA signing, but more a trade. I can also see a couple of those involving certain players that would upset a few fans here.

 

The only high impact FAs I can see the Sox pursuing are EE, Turner, Jansen, Chapman or Melancon. I can't see us getting more than one of these guys, if that, but I suppose we could go "all out" and get 2. I see Beltran as an option as well, but the guy is 39. At least his deal won't be a long one.

 

If we move Moncada to LF, even if as a platoon with Young to start, then maybe that would mean we might trade JBJ or Beni.

 

I'm not so sure HanRam is locked into 1B, but I can see the reasoning behind keeping him there. We could use Young at DH vs LHPs and some righties, and give HanRam a breather by playing him at DH vs the tough RH'd starter.

[Bellhorn04]

If you believe in WAR, losing Papi just cost us 5 wins and knocked us back to an 88 win team. I think that's about right. I think we do need another bat and making a play for EE is realistic. If his price tag is ridiculous they probably will go after Beltran. They wanted him at the trade deadline so there's obviously interest.

[mvp 78]

I'm a fan of the Royals as well as the Red Sox. I think of their players because I like their players. Nothing wrong with that. But the key here is to bring in playoff veterans. If you want to make suggestions on how to do that that don't involve my player fetishes I'm all ears.

 

They had TWO years where they had playoff runs. This doesn't make them some sort of dynasty where you're going to pluck players to get "playoff experience" which most likely doesn't matter anyway.

[mvp 78]

If you believe in WAR, losing Papi just cost us 5 wins and knocked us back to an 88 win team. I think that's about right. I think we do need another bat and making a play for EE is realistic. If his price tag is ridiculous they probably will go after Beltran. They wanted him at the trade deadline so there's obviously interest.

 

They are replacing Ortiz with Bryce Brentz?

 

I doubt they'd replace him with anything less than a 2 WAR guy, so this would still be a 90 win team.

[moonslav59]

If you believe in WAR, losing Papi just cost us 5 wins and knocked us back to an 88 win team. I think that's about right. I think we do need another bat and making a play for EE is realistic. If his price tag is ridiculous they probably will go after Beltran. They wanted him at the trade deadline so there's obviously interest.

 

That's assuming we replace Papi with a replacement level player. I would think some sort in-system combination of Young, Swihart, Pablo and Moncada could put up at least a 1.5 WAR from the DH slot.

[moonslav59]

I'm not trying to minimize the loss of Papi. The guy is a legend among legends.

 

We do have some pretty darn good batters returning next year. Here's how they ranked out of the top 330 MLB players with 220+ PAs:

 

21) Betts .897

38) Ramirez .866

47) Young .850 (same as Trumbo, Beltran & Lucroy)

52) Leon .845

57) JBJ .835

(57- Beni would rank here is he had enough PAs .835)

69) Pedey .825

93) Bogey .802

 

That's 7 returning players (8 if you count Beni) with an OPS over .800!

 

I can see having grave concerns about Leon, but we may see Swihart or Moncada come in over .800 next year.

[Dojji]

They had TWO years where they had playoff runs. This doesn't make them some sort of dynasty where you're going to pluck players to get "playoff experience" which most likely doesn't matter anyway.

 

Except if you actually followed the team in those 2 years, there was a lot of evidence that the team spent both postseason campaigns pulling together in exactly the way you want to see -- everyone was motivated, everything was clicking for the most part, and in 14 they just barely lost because they ran into Madison Bumgarner in game 7, and in 15 they humiliated the Mets by playing very tight, very smart, very opportunistic baseball. If I can get my hands on key players from those 2 years and add them to my young core, I'm going to be very interested in doing it.

[sk7326]

If Theo or CHerington were in charge I'd think we might sit tight and let the young core grow in place, and that one of those two would settle for bringing in patches around the regular talent -- a veteran here, a AAAA guy there, to sort of fill in any gaps created due to injury and whatnot -- and balance the team based around giving the kids as much room to grow as possible.

 

With DD I'm not so sure of that. He knows how important it is to let the youth breathe and start to fill the gaps in leadership without crowding them out with new veterans but he also knows we're tarn close to creating a really special team. I think DD will do his usual, pick a couple guys to target that will, in his opinion, substantially improve the team, and spend whatever it takes to put us over the top.

 

The tricky bit is he might decide that what we need is not a hitter -- for example, he takes a look at our rotation and decides he needs to go over the top again for an ace -- and brings in Felix Hernandez who's as possible a trade target this offseason as he's likely ever going to be, going into his age 31 year, is very expensive, quite a few miles on his arm, and playing for a team that is going nowhere and maybe wants a crack at a winner before his arm falls off. These are things we just can't know yet so we have no idea what is possible.

 

No way - past management would have also known this team is firmly into a contention window. They would aggressively identify the one player away they were and try to do something about it ... I recall them in the 2003 offseason signing an elite reliever and going after a certain Rhode Island video game tycoon ...

[Nick]

I still would explore the possibility of signing EE and trading for Sales....it may take JBJ and slew of youngsters....Kopech, Devers, Shaw, Owens?

 

Move Beni to CF, Young and Swihart could occupy LF spot...I would roll the dice with Moncada....bat him 9th and pinch hit for him if need be....

 

You can then move one of the starters to acquire a young bullpen arm. Sign another bullpen arm, surely that's not brain surgery.

 

I doubt Moncada could do any worse than Shaw/Hill combo. Maybe start the year with Panda....if that works out than Moncada can be shifted to LF, Swihart back to cathing position.....

 

Sales (or Quintana), Porcello, Price, E Rod and pick between Clay B, Pomeranz, Wright for 5th slot. I would keep Pomeranz because he can throw out of pen. I don't want to pay $13M to Clay to be a bullpen guy.

 

I think EE will give us solid 3 years at least. I don't see his power diminishing. Hell I could be wrong.

Edited October 14, 2016 by Nick

[Jack Flap]

So what's the difference between this thread and "Realistic View of 2017"?

 

Anyway, I don't think we necessarily need to add a bat (Hanley, Pablo, Shaw, and Holt ought to be able to fill 3 positions between them, with Moncada and perhaps Travis on the horizon), but with Papi leaving, I expect we will nonetheless. I'd be loathe to give EE a fat 4-5 year deal at age 34 and give up a 1st round pick in the process, but it's hard to see Henry & Dombrowski losing Papi and not finding a way to bring in another masher in his place.

 

I don't think we see any major changes to the rotation... Price/Porcello/Pomeranz/Rodriguez/Wright(/Buchholz?) is a pretty good group, though we could probably stand to add some depth beyond that.

 

The bullpen will be in need of a makeover, as someone else mentioned.

 

All in all, I expect a relatively quiet winter (which probably means it will be crazy).

[southpaw777]

The only high impact FAs I can see the Sox pursuing are EE, Turner, Jansen, Chapman or Melancon. I can't see us getting more than one of these guys, if that, but I suppose we could go "all out" and get 2. I see Beltran as an option as well, but the guy is 39. At least his deal won't be a long one.

 

If we move Moncada to LF, even if as a platoon with Young to start, then maybe that would mean we might trade JBJ or Beni.

 

I'm not so sure HanRam is locked into 1B, but I can see the reasoning behind keeping him there. We could use Young at DH vs LHPs and some righties, and give HanRam a breather by playing him at DH vs the tough RH'd starter.

 

Beltran is an interesting option as a short term DH. Hes still close to a 300 hitter with some HR power from both sides without the big price tag.

Honestly, out of all our young MLB ready players, I can see DD trading Swihart and/or JBJ. They BOTH have great value and could possibly bring back something worth moving one, or both for. Beni or Betts could easily shift back to CF and Vaz/Leon is a solid tandum at catcher for a few years.

Moncada will be in AAA to start 2017 IMHO. And should be.

I dont like the idea of Chapman because hes a closer and will want to close. Kimbrel is our closer. Thats going to piss one off. Not a good idea financially as well. Not sure Melancon will want to come back here. I think he likes a dimmer spotlight. It would have to be Someone that can be a late inning arm IMHO. A guy who gets swings and misses is what Id look for.. I like the possibility of Koji for another year too...we rotate a few of our AAA guys that are possibilities like Austin Maddox, kyle Martin, Robby Scott did good in his SSS, And Brandon Workman has healed up and is back. He could be a bullpen or starter option.

Besides a closer and maybe a real proven consistent guy like Koji, I dont like to put too much more $$$ into the pen if I dont have to.

[Spudboy]

Is anyone interested that Pedrioa had surgery on his knee?

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the sox are truly going to have a competition at 3b. Pablo, Shaw, Moncada. You're gonna get a DH. Smith should come back and pair with Kimbrel. You'll need at least one more reliever

[Eddy Ballgame]

Beltran is an interesting option as a short term DH. Hes still close to a 300 hitter with some HR power from both sides without the big price tag.

Honestly, out of all our young MLB ready players, I can see DD trading Swihart and/or JBJ. They BOTH have great value and could possibly bring back something worth moving one, or both for. Beni or Betts could easily shift back to CF and Vaz/Leon is a solid tandum at catcher for a few years.

Moncada will be in AAA to start 2017 IMHO. And should be.

I dont like the idea of Chapman because hes a closer and will want to close. Kimbrel is our closer. Thats going to piss one off. Not a good idea financially as well. Not sure Melancon will want to come back here. I think he likes a dimmer spotlight. It would have to be Someone that can be a late inning arm IMHO. A guy who gets swings and misses is what Id look for.. I like the possibility of Koji for another year too...we rotate a few of our AAA guys that are possibilities like Austin Maddox, kyle Martin, Robby Scott did good in his SSS, And Brandon Workman has healed up and is back. He could be a bullpen or starter option.

Besides a closer and maybe a real proven consistent guy like Koji, I dont like to put too much more $$$ into the pen if I dont have to.

 

Good points...I fully expect Koji to be back next year and I don't think it's a given that Tazawa will definitely be gone. The only guy they can't re-sign is Ziegler, who will go to a team that has ST in Arizona.

 

As far as Janssen & Chapman go, why would two teams that are built to win now and for the foreseeable future, and have pretty much unlimited resources, let either of these guys walk? My guess is that it would have to be a crazy overpay, unless one or both of these guys "want" to leave.

 

I agree on Melancon. Some guys just aren't cut out for Boston. He's supposedly one of them.

 

I don't think they'll spend big on middle relief, either. Certainly not anything close to the 4/32 that they offered Andrew Miller.

 

I agree that they will look at Beltran/Bautista if the EE numbers get past whatever value that they assign to him. My guess is that they will.

 

I'm not betting that they move Swihart, but I have a feeling that they will make a pretty significant trade this offseason. I think there are only two players who they won't listen on (Betts/Pedroia).

[moonslav59]

Good points...I fully expect Koji to be back next year and I don't think it's a given that Tazawa will definitely be gone. The only guy they can't re-sign is Ziegler, who will go to a team that has ST in Arizona.

 

I wouldn't mind bringing Koji back, and he may take a little hometown discount out of loyalty and the desire to make the playoffs up to his retirement.

 

 

As far as Janssen & Chapman go, why would two teams that are built to win now and for the foreseeable future, and have pretty much unlimited resources, let either of these guys walk? My guess is that it would have to be a crazy overpay, unless one or both of these guys "want" to leave.

 

It's up to them, not their teams. Both are unrestricted FAs. Jansen could cost a comp pick though, so that might give the edge to LA.

 

 

I agree on Melancon. Some guys just aren't cut out for Boston. He's supposedly one of them.

 

I never bought into that theory. He did fine here.

 

 

I don't think they'll spend big on middle relief, either. Certainly not anything close to the 4/32 that they offered Andrew Miller.

 

I wish they had spent that on Miller back then. There are no "Millers" on the market this year.

 

 

I agree that they will look at Beltran/Bautista if the EE numbers get past whatever value that they assign to him. My guess is that they will.

 

I think they'll look sorter term (Beltran) or let Young, Pablo, Moncada, Shaw, Hernandez, Holt and others fight for the 3B/DH openings.

 

 

I'm not betting that they move Swihart, but I have a feeling that they will make a pretty significant trade this offseason. I think there are only two players who they won't listen on (Betts/Pedroia).

 

I'm not sure many GMs are calling about Pedey, but at his age, I'd listen.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree on Melancon. Some guys just aren't cut out for Boston. He's supposedly one of them.

 

I never bought into that theory. He did fine here.

 

They probably gave up on Melancon too quickly, but I really don't think he 'did fine' here.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Good points...I fully expect Koji to be back next year and I don't think it's a given that Tazawa will definitely be gone. The only guy they can't re-sign is Ziegler, who will go to a team that has ST in Arizona.

I wouldn't mind bringing Koji back, and he may take a little hometown discount out of loyalty and the desire to make the playoffs up to his retirement.

 

Koji supposedly loves it here. My guess is they get it done.

 

 

As far as Janssen & Chapman go, why would two teams that are built to win now and for the foreseeable future, and have pretty much unlimited resources, let either of these guys walk? My guess is that it would have to be a crazy overpay, unless one or both of these guys "want" to leave.

 

It's up to them, not their teams. Both are unrestricted FAs. Jansen could cost a comp pick though, so that might give the edge to LA.

 

No s*** it's up to them. That's why I mentioned "if they want to leave." My point is that the Sox aren't going to grossly overpay for either of them, which is clearly what it will take, unless for some reason the Dodgers & Cubs don't want these guys back.

 

I agree on Melancon. Some guys just aren't cut out for Boston. He's supposedly one of them.

 

I never bought into that theory. He did fine here.

 

Lol....You're clearly not from Boston. Whether or not Melancon could pitch here is debatable, but I wouldn't hold your breath expecting them to sign him. By the way, there are a lot of players who aren't well suited for this city.

 

 

I don't think they'll spend big on middle relief, either. Certainly not anything close to the 4/32 that they offered Andrew Miller.

 

I wish they had spent that on Miller back then. There are no "Millers" on the market this year.

 

That was the "exact" offer they made to him. Miller took 4/36 from the Yankees. Obviously they would match in hindsight. Lucchino was still around back then.

 

I agree that they will look at Beltran/Bautista if the EE numbers get past whatever value that they assign to him. My guess is that they will.

 

I think they'll look sorter term (Beltran) or let Young, Pablo, Moncada, Shaw, Hernandez, Holt and others fight for the 3B/DH openings.

 

It's possible.

 

I'm not betting that they move Swihart, but I have a feeling that they will make a pretty significant trade this offseason. I think there are only two players who they won't listen on (Betts/Pedroia).

 

I'm not sure many GMs are calling about Pedey, but at his age, I'd listen.

 

Pedroia's value goes well beyond "statistical analysis." He's not going anywhere. Now I KNOW you're not from Boston.

[Spudboy]

They probably gave up on Melancon too quickly, but I really don't think he 'did fine' here.

 

That is how I saw things too.

[cp176]

I think the sox are truly going to have a competition at 3b. Pablo, Shaw, Moncada. You're gonna get a DH. Smith should come back and pair with Kimbrel. You'll need at least one more reliever

 

This is how I see it. Outside of finding a dh and maybe one reliever they might not do a thing. I don't want them to trade for another mid rotation starter. We have that base covered already. They may make a play for that top of the rotation guy but that will cost them. I'm not so sure the front office is willing to give up any of their future young stars before they truly have a sample size that is meaningful. If they are going to add a starting pitcher I don't think that it will be some stiff they could get just to provide more depth.

[Dojji]

Is anyone interested that Pedrioa had surgery on his knee?

 

At this point I just assume Pedey's playing through something injury related at all times, and that he has a loose date with his surgeon lined up for late October by March 2nd, details of which injury and what to operate on to be determined by year's end..

[illinoisredsox]

 

I'm not sure many GMs are calling about Pedey, but at his age, I'd listen.

 

You can listen, but since he will have to agree to any trade as a 10-5 guy, moving Pedroia is more complicated than trading anyone else on the team. Pedey will want something extra to agree, and since he likes it in Boston that price could be steep financially.

 

Not impossible, but a lot tougher than it was in July.

[moonslav59]

Pedroia's value goes well beyond "statistical analysis." He's not going anywhere. Now I KNOW you're not from Boston.

 

I'll listen to anyone's offer for anyone.

 

Give me greater return and I'll trade Betts, Bogey, and JBJ.

[Eddy Ballgame]

I'll listen to anyone's offer for anyone.

 

Give me greater return and I'll trade Betts, Bogey, and JBJ.

 

"Listening" is a figure of speech. In reality, Pedroia has significantly greater value to the Red Sox organization than any other. Ideally for both sides, he'll finish his career here and see his number retired.