Lineup Discussions

[moonslav59]

Only innovation tonight was to move JBJ to the 9th spot. Pedey has been amazing, Bogaerts is starting to hit, Betts continues to hit and even Hanley showed some life tonight.

A much needed win.

 

Hope the two hits by JBJ is the start of something.

[moonslav59]

These numbers are what concern me the most.

 

Runs scored at home:404/67 gms (6.0 runs/gm)

Runs scored away: 296/62 gms (4.8 per gm)

 

Runs allowed at home: 320/67 gms (4.8 per gm.)

Runs allowed away: 259/62 gms (4.2 per gm)

 

We all know Fenway is a hitter's park, but that doesn't explain why we score 1.2 runs more per game at home than away, but only allow 0.6 more to our opponents. Maybe our pitchers are "built to pitch in Fenway" or maybe our hitters are "built for Fenway".

 

It's good to see we still outscore our opps on the road, and we are 33-29 on the road, but we have been getting into real hitting funks on the road lately.

[Nick]

These numbers are what concern me the most.

 

Runs scored at home:404/67 gms (6.0 runs/gm)

Runs scored away: 296/62 gms (4.8 per gm)

 

Runs allowed at home: 320/67 gms (4.8 per gm.)

Runs allowed away: 259/62 gms (4.2 per gm)

 

We all know Fenway is a hitter's park, but that doesn't explain why we score 1.2 runs more per game at home than away, but only allow 0.6 more to our opponents. Maybe our pitchers are "built to pitch in Fenway" or maybe our hitters are "built for Fenway".

 

It's good to see we still outscore our opps on the road, and we are 33-29 on the road, but we have been getting into real hitting funks on the road lately.

 

This is why you don't just settle when you build a lineup. You can't have a black hole in the lineup. Everyone must contribute to manage slow/slumping periods. It's too much pressure on say just 5 guys to produce offense. Having Sandy and Benintendi bat 8/9th was indicative of our offensive strength. Realistically there's no one inside the organization that can come close to replacing Ortiz. With our bullpen situation, it will be difficult to win coming from behind next year, especially having no replacement for Ortiz.

[moonslav59]

This is why you don't just settle when you build a lineup. You can't have a black hole in the lineup. Everyone must contribute to manage slow/slumping periods. It's too much pressure on say just 5 guys to produce offense. Having Sandy and Benintendi bat 8/9th was indicative of our offensive strength. Realistically there's no one inside the organization that can come close to replacing Ortiz. With our bullpen situation, it will be difficult to win coming from behind next year, especially having no replacement for Ortiz.

 

Now that we have Pomeranz, I think the bull pen may be the top priority of the winter plan to acquire quality talent. We have enough money to pay for 3 top RP'ers. Add Carson Smith to that number, and we could be very good in the pen.

 

I'm not sure what top non-closer RP'ers are available, but if we sign 3, we should be all set.

 

Closer: Kimbrel

RP2: ________

RP3: ________

RP4: C Smith

RP5: ________

RP6: Barnes

RP7: Ross/Kelly/Hembree/Abad/Elias/Owens/Johnson/Workman

 

 

[Nick]

Now that we have Pomeranz, I think the bull pen may be the top priority of the winter plan to acquire quality talent. We have enough money to pay for 3 top RP'ers. Add Carson Smith to that number, and we could be very good in the pen.

 

I'm not sure what top non-closer RP'ers are available, but if we sign 3, we should be all set.

 

Closer: Kimbrel

RP2: ________

RP3: ________

RP4: C Smith

RP5: ________

RP6: Barnes

RP7: Ross/Kelly/Hembree/Abad/Elias/Owens/Johnson/Workman

 

 

 

Left-Handed Relievers (Italics denote active closers)

 

Craig Breslow (36)

Brett Cecil (30)

Aroldis Chapman (29)

Mike Dunn (32)

Boone Logan (32)

Javier Lopez (39)

Cory Luebke (32)

Eric O’Flaherty (32)

Marc Rzepczynski (31)

Matt Thornton (40)

Travis Wood (30)

 

Right-Handed Relievers (Italics denote active closers)

 

Matt Albers (34) — $3MM club option with a $250K buyout

Matt Belisle (37)

Joaquin Benoit (39)

Joe Blanton (36)

Blaine Boyer (35)

Santiago Casilla (36)

Joba Chamberlain (31)

Jesse Chavez (33)

Josh Collmenter (31) — $2.25MM mutual option with a $150K buyout

Wade Davis (31) — $10MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout

Scott Feldman (34)

Neftali Feliz (29)

Jason Grilli (40) — $3MM club option with a $250K buyout

David Hernandez (32)

Luke Hochevar (33) — $7MM mutual option with a $500K buyout

Daniel Hudson (30)

Tommy Hunter (30)

Edwin Jackson (33)

Kenley Jansen (29)

Kevin Jepsen (32)

Mark Melancon (32)

Pat Neshek (36) — $6.5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Seung-hwan Oh (34) — club option

Ross Ohlendorf (34)

Jonathan Papelbon (36)

Joel Peralta (41)

Yusmeiro Petit (32) — $3MM club/vesting option with a $500K buyout (vests with 80 IP)

Fernando Rodney (40) — floating $2MM+ club option with a $400K buyout

Sergio Romo (34)

Fernando Salas (32)

Joe Smith (33)

Drew Storen (29)

Junichi Tazawa (31)

Carlos Torres (34)

Koji Uehara (42)

Ryan Vogelsong (39)

Jordan Walden (29) — $5.25MM club option with a $250K buyout

Ryan Webb (31)

Brad Ziegler (37)

[oldtimer]

This is why you don't just settle when you build a lineup. You can't have a black hole in the lineup. Everyone must contribute to manage slow/slumping periods. It's too much pressure on say just 5 guys to produce offense. Having Sandy and Benintendi bat 8/9th was indicative of our offensive strength. Realistically there's no one inside the organization that can come close to replacing Ortiz. With our bullpen situation, it will be difficult to win coming from behind next year, especially having no replacement for Ortiz.

 

I'm most concerned with this year, since we are still in a position to make the playoffs. With only 4 days before the call-ups, the lineups may indeed change shortly. Our 3rd base situation and left field both could use strengthening. Moncada is clearly the likely addition to play against left handed pitching at least as Hill hasn't done the job and JF seems to be against using Hernandez for that role. Left field can go to Holt with more substitute players available. It will be interesting to see how the lineup is configured in Sept.

[Maxbialystock]

I continue to be amazed at the reaction to Benintendi's injury--that the season was basically over without him. Platooning Holt and Young in LF and having them bat near the bottom of the order is hardly a disaster--or a black hole for that matter. Holaday might be, but he only starts every 3 or 4 games. Whoops, I forget Shaw and Hill, our undynamic duo at 3B.

 

If there is a legitimate concern about this lineup, it's the collective inexperience in pennant races and subsequent playoffs and especially the good pitching that will be thrown at the Sox.

[Kimmi]

I continue to be amazed at the reaction to Benintendi's injury--that the season was basically over without him. Platooning Holt and Young in LF and having them bat near the bottom of the order is hardly a disaster--or a black hole for that matter. Holaday might be, but he only starts every 3 or 4 games. Whoops, I forget Shaw and Hill, our undynamic duo at 3B.

 

If there is a legitimate concern about this lineup, it's the collective inexperience in pennant races and subsequent playoffs and especially the good pitching that will be thrown at the Sox.

 

I hate Beni's injury, just because I hate injuries, but I never felt like our season was in jeopardy when he got injured. I thought our team was fine before he got called up, and I think it will be fine if he is unable to return this year.

 

As far as our undynamic duo at 3B goes, if only we had Pablo...

[moonslav59]

This is why you don't just settle when you build a lineup. You can't have a black hole in the lineup.

 

Just about every team does. Several winning teams have 2-3 "black holes" in their line-up.

 

Of course, you do your best to eliminate black holes, but teams can and have won with them.

 

 

Everyone must contribute to manage slow/slumping periods. It's too much pressure on say just 5 guys to produce offense. Having Sandy and Benintendi bat 8/9th was indicative of our offensive strength. Realistically there's no one inside the organization that can come close to replacing Ortiz. With our bullpen situation, it will be difficult to win coming from behind next year, especially having no replacement for Ortiz.

 

Agreed. Even signing Encarnacion would not be "replacing" everything Papi brought to this team.

 

The best way to counter the loss of Papi will probably be to incrementally get better at several other areas at once while trying to minimize the loss at the DH position as best as we can within the limits of our budget and hopes of maintaining a viable future by keeping many of our best remaining prospects. We've already lost Espi, Margot, Guerra, Logan, Basabe and others. I'm not sure, if our future can handle a blockbuster deal to land an ace.

 

When you look to improve your team, you normally look at your weakest links and try to upgrade those roster slots. Here's how I view our biggest weaknesses:

 

1) Bullpen: we will need to replace Uehara and Tazawa, but it goes farther than that. Neither of these two have done anything spectacular this year that makes them hard to replace. We need to go beyond replacing them. I feel we need a shutdown number two that could close, if Kimbrell gets hurt. That won't be cheap. We have to hope Carson Smith can return to health and do well. He may be good enough to be our #3, but I'd prefer to acquire a solid #3 and make Smith our #4- just in case. That won't be cheap either, but at least non-closer RP'ers don't make $20M a year. If we get two top RP'ers, we could probably stop there and hope between Barnes, Ross, Hembree, Kelly, Abad and our SP'ers who don't make the rotation can cover the rest. The alternative route might be to get a solid #2 and two solid #4s and 5s. The cost might be the same as a great #2 and #3/4.

 

2) SP'er: I'm not convinced the 5 SP'ers we have right now are all going to be going strong through next year. I wouldn't bet against any one fo them individually, but when you combine the odds of struggling or injury for each one of them, I feel the odds are we could use another solid SP'er. I'm almost always for building a rotation from the top, but financial constraints and other high need areas will probably make that impossible. The acquisition of Pomeranz, in my opinion, put the kibosh on any real chance of getting and ace via trade. Maybe Sale, and his low contractual cost could still be a possibility, but I doubt we'll give what they want. If we give up Beni, we have a new hole to fill. If we give up Moncada, we'll have another hole to fill (see number 3). I doubt we can get Sale for ERod, Swihart and Kopech, and I'm not even sure I'd do that deal. ERod has more upside left in him.

 

3) 3b/1B/DH: I see a lot of options in the system for these three slots, so I doubt we go outside the system to fill one of these slots, but there is still a lot of conjecture, speculation and praying going on here.

 

3B: Moncada or Shaw? (Hernandez and Pablo?)

1B: HanRam or Shaw? (Pablo, Swihart and Travis?)

DH: HanRam, Young or Pablo? (Swihart or Moncada?)

 

To me, Shaw is the biggest concern. I think Moncada may need some adjustment periods, but I like his chances of winning a FT job by June, if not April. I'm not counting on Pablo to have any meaningful role next year, and we shouldn't plan on him either, but I'm also not counting him out (much like I never counted Buch out this year). Even HanRam is a question mark. Maybe we'll know more about all of these guys by season's end, but we may end up needing to find a cheap vet corner IF'er to add support and options.

 

4) LF: I have a lot of confidence in Beni, but with only Young as a replacement, we are very short in depth at LF. Holt is okay in a pinch, but Brentz is not. We may need back-up LF'er.

 

So, where do we see multiple incremental gains to possibly off-set Papi's loss?

 

1) The pen has to be one.

 

2) Our rotation could improve by just pitching like they are now for all of next year. A full year of Pomeranz and ERod might be all we need. Of course, one can also imagine an off year from Wright or some regression from Porcello and his career year, but maybe Price and others can make that up by doing better next year.

 

3) Full seasons from Beni and Moncada, who, in theory, will be taking PAs away from:

HanRam vs RHPs (.712)

Shaw vs LHPs (.635)

Young vs RHPs (.701)

Hernandez (.668) & Rutledge (.669) vs RHPs

Holt vs LHPs (.361)

Maybe even some of JBJ vs LHPs (.677)

Hill & Brentz vs all pitchers

This, alone, could be a massive plus.

 

4) Improved offense and defense from our catcher position. Our overall catcher OPS this year is .679. Nobody expects Leon to keep going mental all through next year, but I do think we can hope for a better total catcher OPS than .679.

.972 Leon (176 PAs as a catcher)

.669 Swihart (23)

.582 Vazquez (173)

.437 Hanigan (102)

.310 Holaday (.310)

just taking hanigan and Holaday out of the equation should help reach that goal.

 

5) Can we realistically expect better years from Betts, Bogey, JBJ and Pedey?

That's a hard call to make, but it's not impossible to imagine when you loom at their collective ages.

 

I think it can be done.

 

We have wild card possibilities as well:

Pablo, Travis, Kelly, Johnson/Owens/Elias/Kopech, Hernandez/Dubon.

We could see a ROY award to Moncada or Beni.

We could see Carson Smith be better than 2015.

We could see Barnes or Hembree step up bigtime.

 

Lots of ifs, but with so many of them, there's a good chance some come true.

 

There is reason for optimism.

[mvp 78]

Holt should never ever lead off.

[Jasonbay44]

Holt should never ever lead off.

Agreed. I don't understand the logic where if Pedroia needs an off day we have a guy who usually hits at the bottom of the order lead off. Holt and Hill have both hit leadoff recently and it makes no sense.

[Slasher9]

Agreed. I don't understand the logic where if Pedroia needs an off day we have a guy who usually hits at the bottom of the order lead off. Holt and Hill have both hit leadoff recently and it makes no sense.

 

JF surely doesnt want to flip flop betts from cleanup to leadoff and back. who would you recommend bat leadoff while pedey is at a funeral or takes a blow?

[Jasonbay44]

JF surely doesnt want to flip flop betts from cleanup to leadoff and back. who would you recommend bat leadoff while pedey is at a funeral or takes a blow?

 

Why not? If Pedroia is not in the lineup, you should have one of your best players getting the most potential AB's in your lineup, Betts or Xander makes sense. Hill and Holt leading off is dumb. Hill has been a black hole and Holt is average player.

[Slasher9]

Why not? If Pedroia is not in the lineup, you should have one of your best players getting the most potential AB's in your lineup, Betts or Xander makes sense. Hill and Holt leading off is dumb. Hill has been a black hole and Holt is average player.

 

edit.

i just dont think flipping betts back and forth is the answer. but i would be ok simply moving everyone up a spot and batting holt 9th....i wonder if ortiz has ever batted 2nd?

just looked it up: 2 for 5 with a double..

he's actually 2 for 4 with a BB batting leadoff!!

Edited August 29, 2016 by Slasher9

[mvp 78]

I'd rather JBJ hit leadoff. In a perfect world, Beni would be the leadoff when Pedey is out.

[Maxbialystock]

I'd rather JBJ hit leadoff. In a perfect world, Beni would be the leadoff when Pedey is out.

 

Actually, Holt is a good choice against a righty starter because it keeps everyone else in a position--2d, 3d, 4th, etc--they are now used to.

 

JBJ went into a huge slump in part because he was up too high in the lineup. Near the bottom is working for him now and should not be changed.

[Jasonbay44]

edit.

i just dont think flipping betts back and forth is the answer. but i would be ok simply moving everyone up a spot and batting holt 9th....i wonder if ortiz has ever batted 2nd?

just looked it up: 2 for 5 with a double..

he's actually 2 for 4 with a BB batting leadoff!!

Was that with the Sox? I really don't remember Ortiz hitting leadoff and I feel like that's something absurd I'd remember lol

[illinoisredsox]

Was that with the Sox? I really don't remember Ortiz hitting leadoff and I feel like that's something absurd I'd remember lol

 

He has never been in the starting line-up as a lead-off hitter. Those 5 plate appearances in the #1 spot in the batting order are spread over 5 games and are as a pinch hitter. They include 1 such game this year.

 

The numbers in the #2 slot in the order are similar, 5 plate appearances over 5 games.

[oldtimer]

Actually, Holt is a good choice against a righty starter because it keeps everyone else in a position--2d, 3d, 4th, etc--they are now used to.

 

JBJ went into a huge slump in part because he was up too high in the lineup. Near the bottom is working for him now and should not be changed.

 

JBJ did go into a log slump, but do you think there were no other possible causes than that he was too high in the order? In his recent slump? I noticed he had moved into an uppercut swing, which players sometimes use when they are trying to hit the long ball. Slumps are easy to get into but hard to get out of. I would think there are many possible reasons for slumps and the one I mentioned is also just one of many possible.

[Station 13]

Betts should hit lead off with Pedroia MIA. He should be hitting 3rd when Pedroia return.

[oldtimer]

Betts should hit lead off with Pedroia MIA. He should be hitting 3rd when Pedroia return.

 

What about Ortiz, do you think he is better suited to cleanup or third in the order and why? Ortiz is a great hitter but he is also a very slow runner these days. Where you bat Betts should also account for where Ortiz bats in my opinion.

[Station 13]

What about Ortiz, do you think he is better suited to cleanup or third in the order and why? Ortiz is a great hitter but he is also a very slow runner these days. Where you bat Betts should also account for where Ortiz bats in my opinion.

 

Ortiz has done just fine hitting 4th all year. Why the change all sudden?

[oldtimer]

Ortiz has done just fine hitting 4th all year. Why the change all sudden?

 

Holt did fine at lead off last night. Betts has the power to hit in the 3rd or 4th slot and the management thinks his best slot is 4th. I tend to agree since on this team you go right, left, right in the order. It is even more that way with Pedroia bating first.

[Maxbialystock]

Betts should hit lead off with Pedroia MIA. He should be hitting 3rd when Pedroia return.

 

I was fine with Betts leading off before but have to agree dropping him closer to the heart of the order makes sense when he is second on the team in rbi's and dingers.

 

And last night Holt was terrific leading off against a righty starter.

[Slasher9]

He has never been in the starting line-up as a lead-off hitter. Those 5 plate appearances in the #1 spot in the batting order are spread over 5 games and are as a pinch hitter. They include 1 such game this year.

 

The numbers in the #2 slot in the order are similar, 5 plate appearances over 5 games.

 

thanks for clarifying IL. i didn't delve deep on B-R when i pulled the numbers. i thought maybe he did them back in the twins days and didnt even think the #1 or #2 hitter would be PH for....

[Slasher9]

Ortiz has done just fine hitting 4th all year. Why the change all sudden?

 

his numbers in July were falling fast. he had zero protection. betts hitting behind him has resparked his bat. it was a solid move by JF....

[oldtimer]

Change of subject. I was reading that JF is unsure about bringing Moncada up with the Sept callups. He is not sure how he would be used on the team is how the newspaper writer characterized it, thinking on him as a possible pinch runner. I would remind him that Hill has been really poor at the plate and that we are unlikely to use him to any effect or keep him next year. Lets just replace Hill with Moncada on the roster and cut Hill loose.

[moonslav59]

Change of subject. I was reading that JF is unsure about bringing Moncada up with the Sept callups. He is not sure how he would be used on the team is how the newspaper writer characterized it, thinking on him as a possible pinch runner. I would remind him that Hill has been really poor at the plate and that we are unlikely to use him to any effect or keep him next year. Lets just replace Hill with Moncada on the roster and cut Hill loose.

 

I'd have both on my September roster, since we're paying Hill anyway. He is a decent fielder that could replace Moncada for defense late in a game, or if you PR Moncada, Hill could come in defensively.

[Spudboy]

Moncada has not seen MLB pitching.

 

Who is to say he will hit like Benintendi?

 

What if he comes up and hits more like Castillo?

 

I say bring him up if he is ready but keep Hill for the duration and hope that Shorer continues his resurrection at the plate.

[Hugh2]

Moncada could come up right now and probably hit RHP from the left side of the plate well, he's close to ready. However, he'd be a black hole from the right side as he obviously needs more work over there.

 

He may or may not see time in September, but I think some time in the AFL is possible as well to give him more reps at 3B.