Lineup Discussions

[moonslav59]

Speed does nothing if you don't get on base.

 

Before tonight, Mookie has gotten on base at a .395 rate over the last 28 days.

 

Bogey .371

 

Pedey .367

 

If he continues to struggle in April and may, we may want to have him only lead off once the warm weather arrives.

[moonslav59]

Maybe someday....

 

"The Killer B's"

 

1) Benintendi LF

2) Bogaerts SS

3) Betts RF

4) Bradley CF

5) Ben Carnacion DH

6) Bustin' Pedroia 2B

7) Bone Moncada 3B

8) Bam Bam Ram 1B

9) Bandy Bee-On C

[bosoxmal]

Sounds good to me! And, the sooner the better!

 

I just hope it's not a bad omen. Anybody else remember the Boston Bees? Or, maybe this would be a way of retribution. God, they were awful!!!!

[Spudboy]

I would only put Altuve ahead of him. Murphy is barely adequate defensively. Cano has slipped defensively. And except for power, Pedey is a better player than Kinsler.

 

Dito.

[jacksonianmarch]

Cano has him on WAR and is hitting with much more power at a tougher field.

[Youk Of The Nation]

http://www.obscure.org/~bob/stuff/coke.html

 

Stop letting the wool get pulled over your eyes!

 

http://www.snopes.com/cokelore/newcoke.asp

[Nick]

Maybe someday....

 

"The Killer B's"

 

1) Benintendi LF

2) Bogaerts SS

3) Betts RF

4) Bradley CF

5) Ben Carnacion DH

6) Bustin' Pedroia 2B

7) Bone Moncada 3B

8) Bam Bam Ram 1B

9) Bandy Bee-On C

 

And lots of Benjamin Franklin to keep them together

[Kimmi]

All that is true. But also true is that your ideas about the batting order are based on gut feelings and old rules-of-thumb like 'highest OBP should lead off'.

 

Read Kimmi's comments on the batting order. She has looked into this stuff in great depth, including all the Sabrmetrics research. She knows what she's talking about.

 

Actually, the old school of thought, which in incorrect, is that you put your speedy guys in the lead off spot, regardless of OBP. For the lead off spot, OBP is king.

 

Speedy guys actually serve a better purpose further down in the line up, in front of your singles hitters, rather than in front of the power hitters.

 

Thank you for the kind words.

[a700hitter]

Actually, the old school of thought, which in incorrect, is that you put your speedy guys in the lead off spot, regardless of OBP. For the lead off spot, OBP is king.

 

Speedy guys actually serve a better purpose further down in the line up, in front of your singles hitters, rather than in front of the power hitters.

 

Thank you for the kind words.

But they are better off in front of your power hitters than right behind you power hitters.

[Kimmi]

Highest OBP is not gut feeling, it is statistical. Old school gut feeling was to put a base stealer up first without regard to OBP or SB success rate. The emphasis on OBP has its roots in Moneyball which was not accepted by the old school gut feeling baseball people.

 

I'll let Kimmi speak for herself but I think she also would say that OBP is the biggest factor in offensive production.

 

This is correct. To quote Kalkman, who wrote an excellent article on line ups:

 

Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

 

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

 

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters.

 

Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.

[Kimmi]

If highest OBP should lead off Ortiz should lead off.

 

That is actually not the craziest of ideas. Batting Papi 4th makes more sense because he also has the high SLG %, but batting him leadoff would make a lot more sense then putting a speedy guy who can't get on base in that slot.

 

The problem with the 'optimal' line ups is that they so strongly buck conventional thinking that no one is going to do it. Can you imagine the outrage if Farrell put Papi in the lead off spot? That said, we are starting to see some hints of it, particularly with batters we are seeing in the #2 spot.

[a700hitter]

That is actually not the craziest of ideas. Batting Papi 4th makes more sense because he also has the high SLG %, but batting him leadoff would make a lot more sense then putting a speedy guy who can't get on base in that slot.

 

The problem with the 'optimal' line ups is that they so strongly buck conventional thinking that no one is going to do it. Can you imagine the outrage if Farrell put Papi in the lead off spot? That said, we are starting to see some hints of it, particularly with batters we are seeing in the #2 spot.

Put speedy guys up after Ortiz? That would negate their speed and ability to manufacture runs when they get on base. Ortiz's walks would skyrocket because it would take 3 hits to score him. Ortiz hitting leadoff would hurt run production, imo.

[Kimmi]

Put speedy guys up after Ortiz? That would negate their speed and ability to manufacture runs when they get on base. Ortiz's walks would skyrocket because it would take 3 hits to score him. Ortiz hitting leadoff would hurt run production, imo.

 

Well, you do have to take other things into consideration. As I said, because of his power, batting 4th is the better spot for him. The point is, the idea that your lead off hitter needs to have speed is false. He needs to have a high OBP. Rickey Henderson was not a great lead off hitter because he stole bases. He was a great lead off hitter because he got on base.

[Jasonbay44]

Cano has him on WAR and is hitting with much more power at a tougher field.

 

Yup. Cano is having a huge year, I think he and Altuve are without a doubt better than Pedroia. However, anyone other 2B Pedroia has a solid argument against.

[mvp 78]

Yup. Cano is having a huge year, I think he and Altuve are without a doubt better than Pedroia. However, anyone other 2B Pedroia has a solid argument against.

 

Odor is better

[Bellhorn04]

Odor is better

 

Based on what numbers? Pedroia has a 3.5 bWAR. Odor has a 1.7 bWAR.

[cp176]

Actually, the old school of thought, which in incorrect, is that you put your speedy guys in the lead off spot, regardless of OBP. For the lead off spot, OBP is king.

 

Speedy guys actually serve a better purpose further down in the line up, in front of your singles hitters, rather than in front of the power hitters.

 

Thank you for the kind words.

 

Who knew? I'm a proud member of the old school common sense approach. I was raised and brought up to believe that your leadoff hitter had to have both - the ability to get on base (any way) and the ability to run.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, the old school of thought, which in incorrect, is that you put your speedy guys in the lead off spot, regardless of OBP. For the lead off spot, OBP is king.

 

Speedy guys actually serve a better purpose further down in the line up, in front of your singles hitters, rather than in front of the power hitters.

 

Thank you for the kind words.

 

What do you think Mookie's ideal spot in the lineup would be?

[a700hitter]

Odor is better

He is a better puncher than Pedroia.

[Jasonbay44]

Odor is better

He has an OBP under .300.. I'd rather have Pedroia who does everything better besides hit for power.

[Kimmi]

Who knew? I'm a proud member of the old school common sense approach. I was raised and brought up to believe that your leadoff hitter had to have both - the ability to get on base (any way) and the ability to run.

 

That's an oxymoron, isn't it?

 

All other things being equal, a high OBP guy with speed would be better than a high OBP guy without speed, no doubt. However, speed is not a must for a leadoff hitter.

[Kimmi]

What do you think Mookie's ideal spot in the lineup would be?

 

I don't know if there's an ideal spot, but based on what I've read, I think an optimal lineup would be:

 

1. Xander

2. JBJ

3. Mookie

4. Ortiz

5. Pedroia

6. Hanley

7. Leon (He is a wildcard right now based on his outrageous numbers in a small sample.)

8. Shaw

9. Holt

 

That said, I am not one for changing the line up around because it just doesn't make that big of a difference. Also, our top 6 are all pretty good, and could be interchanged without much damage, comfort level aside.

[cp176]

That's an oxymoron, isn't it?

 

All other things being equal, a high OBP guy with speed would be better than a high OBP guy without speed, no doubt. However, speed is not a must for a leadoff hitter.

 

I agree with you. Speed is a plus but not a necessity in the leadoff spot. I was just being a pain in the A. I'm not one of those oxymorons either.

[devildavid]

Who knew? I'm a proud member of the old school common sense approach. I was raised and brought up to believe that your leadoff hitter had to have both - the ability to get on base (any way) and the ability to run.

 

That is ideal but not easy to find in a player.

[devildavid]

It's the whole package - OBP, speed and OPS. The team thinks Mookie is our best combo of these ingredients, and I agree.

 

Mookie is not the best on the team in OBP. OPS is not important for a leadoff hitter if more of it comes from SLG than OBP. Speed is only useful if the leadoff hitter gets on base. You can't steal first.

[devildavid]

Before tonight, Mookie has gotten on base at a .395 rate over the last 28 days.

 

Bogey .371

 

Pedey .367

 

If he continues to struggle in April and may, we may want to have him only lead off once the warm weather arrives.

 

He has not yet proven to be a top OBP hitter on the Red Sox. His OBP is lower than all Sox qualifiers except Shaw.

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie is not the best on the team in OBP. OPS is not important for a leadoff hitter if more of it comes from SLG than OBP. Speed is only useful if the leadoff hitter gets on base. You can't steal first.

 

OPS matters for a leadoff hitter simply because he is the guy who is going to come to the plate most often during the season. That's part of why the Sabrmetrics research indicates you might want your best all-around hitter up first instead of third.

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie shows again why you want him to get as many chances as possible.

[devildavid]

Mookie shows again why you want him to get as many chances as possible.

 

Mookie's OBP shows that he makes more outs than other top hitters on the team. Why give more chances to hitters who make more outs?

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie's OBP shows that he makes more outs than other top hitters on the team. Why give more chances to hitters who make more outs?

 

You're kind of obsessed with OBP. For OBP purposes a home run is the same as a walk.

 

There are good reasons that OPS is now commonly used as the measurement of a player's total offensive contributions. Home runs do contribute more than walks. Last night was a pretty good illustration.