Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[Slasher9]

Your ability to sense sarcasm is sorely lacking.

 

Not really. I see you out of the blue taking a shot at me from a thread I started months ago showing how poorly our ace was pitching for us at that time. 2 months later after he had an ace like start against a .350 winning ball club you find it neccessaty to take a jab at me. That's weak sauce and I will call a poster out on it. Every time. So there's that...

[User Name]

Y'all need to Pokemon Go and chill.

[Slasher9]

His pattern has been good half seasons and lousy almost full seasons with an occasional lousy half season. When he was healthy, he could dominate, but I think those days are over. The stuff doesn't seem to be there anymore.

Which is exactly why some of us posters think picking up the 2017 option is not a no brainer.....

[Slasher9]

Y'all need to Pokemon Go and chill.

 

I'm at the jersey shore this week. It's funny watching the groups of teenagers stumbling around in circles heads in their cell phones trying to get Pokemon

[mvp 78]

All we can do is jibber jabber until Friday. Stupid All Star Break!

 

The worst week of the season.

[Bellhorn04]

Better than the offseason though. 4 more sleeps and we're back.

[FredLynn]

Which is exactly why some of us posters think picking up the 2017 option is not a no brainer.....

 

Think what you like Slasher. Last year we were a terrible team destined to finish last for the second year in a row. This year's version of Clay Buchholz would fit right in with that team. However.....if we are going to compete for a playoff spot this year and next we cannot have a guy with his horrendous statistics starting for us-hoping that somehow he will improve. Maybe he will; likely he will not. If I am DD I am not waiting around to find out.

[moonslav59]

His pattern has been good half seasons and lousy almost full seasons with an occasional lousy half season. When he was healthy, he could dominate, but I think those days are over. The stuff doesn't seem to be there anymore.

 

I think saying "good half seasons" glosses over the fact that he had 3 of the best half seasons in the last 45 years, including 2 of the best ERA- half seasons of all time.

[Slasher9]

Think what you like Slasher. Last year we were a terrible team destined to finish last for the second year in a row. This year's version of Clay Buchholz would fit right in with that team. However.....if we are going to compete for a playoff spot this year and next we cannot have a guy with his horrendous statistics starting for us-hoping that somehow he will improve. Maybe he will; likely he will not. If I am DD I am not waiting around to find out.

 

So we agree. I said it's not a no brainer to pick up the next option.

[User Name]

I think saying "good half seasons" glosses over the fact that he had 3 of the best half seasons in the last 45 years, including 2 of the best ERA- half seasons of all time.

 

It doesn't gloss over anything. No matter how good, a half-season is a half-season.

[a700hitter]

I think saying "good half seasons" glosses over the fact that he had 3 of the best half seasons in the last 45 years, including 2 of the best ERA- half seasons of all time.

The key is that they were half seasons. The team has to play a full season. So, performance is usually not measured in half seasons.

[Bellhorn04]

I think saying "good half seasons" glosses over the fact that he had 3 of the best half seasons in the last 45 years, including 2 of the best ERA- half seasons of all time.

 

But isn't a half season a small sample by your standards?

[southpaw777]

If Clay cant pitch a full year, which he hasnt in a while, then his final option should NOT be picked up. Last year I had zero issue with the option being picked up. Im sure they can fill the 5 spot for less than 13m and with better production. The guy is a friggin head case on the mound. Im guessing he overthinks everything...Id love to see him pitch whatever the catcher calls instead of wanting to call his own game.

[Emp9]

But isn't a half season a small sample by your standards?

 

When you add up all the smaller sample sizes you get a larger sample size. It's where larger sample sizes come from ... a bunch of smaller sample sizes.

[Bellhorn04]

When you add up all the smaller sample sizes you get a larger sample size. It's where larger sample sizes come from ... a bunch of smaller sample sizes.

 

When you add up Buch's sample sizes, you get totals that reflect a slightly above average pitcher, but don't really reflect how incredibly erratic he has been.

[moonslav59]

It doesn't gloss over anything. No matter how good, a half-season is a half-season.

 

They were more than "good" half seasons, so there was some gloss.

 

I'm not denying the were just half seasons, and I stated they were half seasons.

 

Also, Buch did have one good full season, but that was so long ago, I can understand not counting it.

[moonslav59]

But isn't a half season a small sample by your standards?

 

Yes, and that's why I was sure to mention they were "half seasons".

 

Look, all I did was try to correct the position that Buch has bad full seasons and "good half seasons". It's really more like ...

 

Buch has almost all bad full seasons or almost all fantastic half seasons.

 

Yes, he's erratic as hell, and that makes it hard to plan out a rotation. Years ago (after his good full season), I caught a lot of flack for saying we should count on Buch as our 5th starter- not our 2 or 3. Now, I don't even want him as our 5th starter anymore.

[moonslav59]

If Clay cant pitch a full year, which he hasnt in a while, then his final option should NOT be picked up. Last year I had zero issue with the option being picked up. Im sure they can fill the 5 spot for less than 13m and with better production. The guy is a friggin head case on the mound. Im guessing he overthinks everything...Id love to see him pitch whatever the catcher calls instead of wanting to call his own game.

 

I'm not sure if it's a "head issue", but clearly something is wrong. He's supposedly healthy this year, and JF said the other day, that he looks like he has the same stuff as ever, but he's just not placing the ball where it belongs.

[Kimmi]

I would gladly take last year's half season of Buchholz to finish out this season.

[moonslav59]

I would gladly take last year's half season of Buchholz to finish out this season.

 

...or his 2013 half season, his 2011 half season and his 2010 full season. Even his 2012 full season and 2009 half season would be better than this year or his 2014 season.

 

Buch has played in 10 seasons, including his 2007 season of 23 IP. He's really only had 3 awful seasons/half seasons (2008, 2014 & 2016). He's had 2 so-so seasons/half seasons (2009 & 2012), and he's had 5 very good to fantastic seasons/half seasons and his 23 IP first season. If you throw out 2007, he's had 3 awful, 2 okay, 2 very good & 2 great seasons/half seasons.

 

.

[Bellhorn04]

...or his 2013 half season, his 2011 half season and his 2010 full season. Even his 2012 full season and 2009 half season would be better than this year or his 2014 season.

 

Buch has played in 10 seasons, including his 2007 season of 23 IP. He's really only had 3 awful seasons/half seasons (2008, 2014 & 2016). He's had 2 so-so seasons/half seasons (2009 & 2012), and he's had 5 very good to fantastic seasons/half seasons and his 23 IP first season. If you throw out 2007, he's had 3 awful, 2 okay, 2 very good & 2 great seasons/half seasons.

 

.

 

All of which averages out to a guy who gives you slightly above average quality and well below average quantity.

[a700hitter]

The important thing about Buch is that even when healthy, his stuff is now diminished. He is not the same guy that he used to be.

[moonslav59]

All of which averages out to a guy who gives you slightly above average quality and well below average quantity.

 

True. The thing that makes Buch unique is that he had 2 tremendous half seasons (2013 & 2015), which together are still not a large sample size, but when you add his very nice full season in 2010 and half season of 2011, one always had aense that he was or could be much better than just "slightly above average".

 

It's his wild inconsistency that kills me.

 

I've been one of Buch's biggest defenders over the years based on his flashes of brilliance. I thought taking the option last year was a "no-brainer", but I suggested we trade him in hopes of moving towards more dependability and stability with out rotation.

 

Buch had a decent 2009 half season, and from 2010 to 2015, this is what Buch gave us (6 seasons):

 

1 great full season (2010)

1 okay season (2012)

1 bad season (2014)

 

2 legendary half seasons (2013 & 2015)

1 very good half season (2011)

 

 

[moonslav59]

The important thing about Buch is that even when healthy, his stuff is now diminished. He is not the same guy that he used to be.

 

Maybe it was all a smoke screen, but I heard JF say that Buch still has "his stuff", but he's just not placing it in the right places.

 

I know it's hard to look beyond the harm that pitching just a half season does to a team, even if that half season was great, but since 2009, Buch has only pitched poorly in two seasons: 2014 and 2016. That's two out of seven, but it's also 2 out of 3.

 

I'm past the point of holding out any hope he turns things around, but our staff is so shallow at this point that I guess we're going to see him get a few more chances to show he can improve. As far as I know, Buch has never had a season where he started our good and went bad or started out bad and went good. He's either bad all year, good all year or good for half a year then gets hurt.

 

Strange trend.

[mvp 78]

His 2015 wasn't legendary. Per Game Score it's basically Price's 2016 season so far.

[moonslav59]

His 2015 wasn't legendary. Per Game Score it's basically Price's 2016 season so far.

 

Yes, sorry, I mixed up the "legendary seasons/half seasons". I should have said 2010's full season and 2013's half season, but 2015 was ranked pretty high as well. Here's a look at the best ERA- seasons or half seasons from 2001-2015.

 

2240 samples of pitchers with 80+ IP:

 

1) 25 Medlen 2012

2) 42 Buchholz 2013 (1/2 season)

18) 54 Buchholz 2010 (full season)

277) 77 Buchholz 2015 (1/2 season)

421) 82 Buchholz 2011 (1/2 season)

 

He had 2 legendary seasons/half seasons (2013 & 2010), but his 2015 ERA- placed him in the top 12% of all 80+ IP seasons since 2001. That's much better than Price's 2016. Buch's 2011 season places in the top 19%.

 

In short, in the 6 seasons leading up to 2016, Buchh ad 4 seasons with an ERA- that placed in the top 19% of all 80+ IP seasons by MLB starting pitchers (2240 samples).

 

Clearly, there in lied the hope.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

And Buch will squash your hopes every time. He did it to me this year for the last time.

[mvp 78]

Everything about 2010 is forgettable. Buch's ERA was 2.33, but his FIP was 3.61. I'd take 173 innings from 2010 Buchholz and wouldn't complain. Even that year, he needed a month off to lick his wounds.

 

I honestly don't remember how I felt about his performance throughout the year. Game Score has that year as similar to 2016 Price as well.

[illinoisredsox]

Everything about 2010 is forgettable. Buch's ERA was 2.33, but his FIP was 3.61. I'd take 173 innings from 2010 Buchholz and wouldn't complain. Even that year, he needed a month off to lick his wounds.

 

I honestly don't remember how I felt about his performance throughout the year. Game Score has that year as similar to 2016 Price as well.

 

Which version of game score are you using?

[mvp 78]

Which version of game score are you using?

 

V2.