Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[Bellhorn04]

Because people whined for an ace and DD got the best one available.

 

That's not the issue. The issue is that the ace has a 4.74 ERA at the end of June.

[kenmeister]

Hi all,

 

First time posting today; glad to join the forums!

 

Taking a big picture view of the last few seasons, it really feels like the franchise's number one issue is their inability to draft and develop starting pitching. We've seen so many seemingly can't miss prospects come and go! Henry Owens, Anthony Ranaudo, Brian Johnson, Felix Doubront, heck I'll go back to Brian Rose. It seems like the guys who have success at triple A all end up being labeled "4 A players" and not sticking in the majors. I'm trying to think of the pitchers they've developed in the last 20 years who became regular major league starting pitchers. Aaron Sele, Jon Lester was the most successful, Clay Buchholz, the guy who was traded along with Hanley Ramirez to the Marlins who is in Detroit now, I'm sure I'm forgetting one or two guys, but it's a really small list. To me, that's not just drafting flukiness, the sample size is large enough that it's an organizational deficiency. Which makes it even more surprising that they haven't been as aggressive as they could be in the free agent starting pitching market. I was hoping they'd sign both Price and one of Cueto/Zimmerman/Greinke last offseason.

[Spudboy]

Don't forget Casey Kelly.

[mvp 78]

Don't forget Casey Kelly.

 

He was used in a trade to bring back an All Star 1b. Can't complain about their use of him. Need to know which prospects to let go.

 

I agree with the premise of the post and have said similar things in the past. We'll see if Espinoza, Ball, Kopech, et al are able to become big leaguers someday.

[TheBabeStrikesBack]

Don't forget the Sawx Pitching Staff Discussion thread!

[a700hitter]

That's not the issue. The issue is that the ace has a 4.74 ERA at the end of June.

And around we go in the circle.

[moonslav59]

I'm consistent though. I defended Porcello last year, and I've been rewarded for my faith.

 

I defended Porcello as well, and although the extension looked like an overpay, signing a 26 year old pitcher to 4 years almost always trumps signing 31 or 32 year olds.

 

I did a study on how well the top 3-4 FA signings (by dollar amount) have fared over the last few years. The numbers are shockingly bad. It was a big risk signing Price, but as much as I knew that risk was, if ever there was a "sure bet" signing, one could view Price as "that guy". We needed a top pitcher. Greinke was just as risky. Cueto's mechanics are scary. Zimmerman was a risk.

 

I get the argument that we have failed miserably with out bigf free agent signings going back to Crawford. Clearly we have not done well, but within the context that the vast majority of big signings fail or do not turn out very well, the blame game might be better focused not on correctly choosing FAs, but rather on how the team keeps being constructed in a way that keeps ending up with huge holes. Building a strong farm is one key. Developing good pitchers is another. Filling holes with strategic short term FAs (like Young Cody Ross, etc...) or trade acquisitions (like Uehara) might be a better choice.

 

Price does not look like the stopper we had hoped for, but it's just been 3 months. Remember how long it took Beckett to adjust. Josh had a 5.01 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 2006 before becoming a major factor in our 2007 championship[. Beckett went 4-0 in the post season (30 IP, 4 ER, 19 H, 2 BB, 35 K/B0).

 

Let's hope Price turns things around. I'm as frustrated as anyone here about his performance so far. I keep waiting for him to have a defining moment, like a shut out in a 1-0 win vs Baltimore, but as soon as it looks like he's turning the corner, he allows the sucky Rays to score 4 runs against him.

[Hugh2]

He was used in a trade to bring back an All Star 1b. Can't complain about their use of him. Need to know which prospects to let go.

 

I agree with the premise of the post and have said similar things in the past. We'll see if Espinoza, Ball, Kopech, et al are able to become big leaguers someday.

 

I think we need to give up on Ball and drop the expectations based on his draft spot. Guys are what they are and Ball isn't in the same Tier as the other two, and Espinoza is in a tier of his own. I know they drafted him because everyone they liked was off the board, the 2013 class was very very weak and they saw him as raw but highly athletic, perhaps he's a late bloomer and still has #3#4 starter potential. But Espinoza is easily this organizations best bet for a TOTRS, Groome too if we sign him.

[Dalas21000]

Why are the Sox talking about bring back Joe Kelly as a reliever??? From what I've seen, I think Kelly is one of the best if the not the best starting pitcher for the team. I understand he has struggled to stay healthy, but I think he starts before Bucholz, Rodriguez, to say the least.

[User Name]

This is a sarcastic post right?

[Bellhorn04]

Joe K = Joke

[Nick]

He certainly does not deserve a separate thread.

[mvp 78]

I only gave up 3 earned runs...That isn’t the worst performance I had all year...Just wasn’t a good start..

No brainer, really.

[mvp 78]

This is a sarcastic post right?

 

I just can't even right now, full stop.

[Kimmi]

No brainer, really.

 

You can say that all you want, but it won't change the fact that picking up his option was a no brainer.

[Behindenemylines]

Doesn't do Sox any good as a SP on the DL all the time. He is to up and down as a starter. Let him go out for one inning and throw high 90s.

[Kimmi]

I am really thinking that Dombrowski is going to go all in and get us top starting pitcher at the deadline. I don't know who that will be, but I know the cost will hurt. I don't think he's going to play this half way.

[Behindenemylines]

Sox lucky to be only four games out. The division is there for the taking. Need pitching HELP big time! I'm so done with Buchholz. Price needs to step up, and I don't think we can ask for any more from Porcello. Please don't rain when Wright is pitching. Need someone from AAA to step up, and another SP needs to be brought in via trade.

[Elktonnick]

If you recall I was against picking up his option and his performance indicates he is done. End our and his misery DFA him, if no picks up his option release him.

[harmony]

Why are the Sox talking about bring back Joe Kelly as a reliever??? From what I've seen, I think Kelly is one of the best if the not the best starting pitcher for the team. I understand he has struggled to stay healthy, but I think he starts before Bucholz, Rodriguez, to say the least.

Joe Kelly has an ERA of 8.46 in six starts with the Red Sox this year, walking 7.7 per nine innings:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kellyjo05.shtml

 

This year Kelly has an ERA of 2.37 in four starts at Triple A Pawtucket but has only a June 7 start since May 16:

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=523260#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2016/MINORS

[Spudboy]

Doesn't do Sox any good as a SP on the DL all the time. He is to up and down as a starter. Let him go out for one inning and throw high 90s.

 

Essentially this.

 

They are paying the stiff. Must try to get some useful mileage out of him. He has the heat. Worth a try.

[Bellhorn04]

You can say that all you want, but it won't change the fact that picking up his option was a no brainer.

 

I wasn't against it, but it's not a fact.

[Kimmi]

I wasn't against it, but it's not a fact.

 

The decision to pick up his option is about as close to a no brainer as you can get.

[Spudboy]

You can say that all you want, but it won't change the fact that picking up his option was a no brainer.

 

And you can say that as much as you want. It does not change the fact that Buch has been a waste of time and a waste of money this season.

 

So in my view, anyone opposed to the "no brainer" 2016 extension has been proven correct. Regardless of value expected or good intent.

[Bellhorn04]

The decision to pick up his option is about as close to a no brainer as you can get.

 

Personally I think it's a misuse of the term no brainer. A no brainer literally requires no thought at all. I think this required some thought. Clay missed the last half of the 2015 season and he has an extraordinarily erratic track record. And there were some other credible pitchers like Fister available for less.

[Kimmi]

And you can say that as much as you want. It does not change the fact that Buch has been a waste of time and a waste of money this season.

 

So in my view, anyone opposed to the "no brainer" 2016 extension has been proven correct. Regardless of value expected or good intent.

 

I am not debating the fact that Buchholz has stunk.

 

All of you that were opposed to picking up his contract have been proven correct. Must feel good to be vindicated.

[Kimmi]

Personally I think it's a misuse of the term no brainer. A no brainer literally requires no thought at all. I think this required some thought. Clay missed the last half of the 2015 season and he has an extraordinarily erratic track record. And there were some other credible pitchers like Fister available for less.

 

The term 'no brainer' is used loosely. That said, 1 yr/ $13 mil for a pitcher who put up 3.2 WAR the previous year really shouldn't require much though. Dombrowski more or less said himself that the decision was a no brainer.

[Bellhorn04]

The term 'no brainer' is used loosely. That said, 1 yr/ $13 mil for a pitcher who put up 3.2 WAR the previous year really shouldn't require much though. Dombrowski more or less said himself that the decision was a no brainer.

 

But again, said pitcher missed the second half for the second time in 3 years. He's very unreliable, and maybe he was not the best choice considering the overall state of our rotation.

[Spudboy]

I am not debating the fact that Buchholz has stunk.

 

All of you that were opposed to picking up his contract have been proven correct. Must feel good to be vindicated.

 

No it does not feel good. The Sox allocated $13. mil this year to a guy that had a poor chance of performing up to his contract and that is what happened. It was the wrong thing to do when they could have looked elsewhere to find scrub level pitching at a much more reasonable cost to supplant him in the rotation. Or they could have used the $13. mil toward chasing a better pitcher to fortify the week rotation.

 

The Sox decided that they were okay with the risk of Buch sucking. That is bad judgement and bad business. Now, partly because Buch has sucked, the Sox will need to spend extravagantly of your precious prospects or worse, front line MLB talent , to make the rotation sound.

 

The no brainer has been no bargain.

Edited July 3, 2016 by Spudboy

[Spudboy]

But again, said pitcher missed the second half for the second time in 3 years. He's very unreliable, and maybe he was not the best choice considering the overall state of our rotation.

 

 

"It's also a simple and indisputable fact that WAR isn't the be-all end-all in valuations, especially in real life. Wanna know why? Because an ace in run-prevention for 120 innings means more often than not, a sub-standard pitcher covering for the rest of the IP that pitcher fails to provide. You can't see value in a vacuum when a player does not provide full-time production."