Sox Pitching Staff Discussion

[bowman]

I'm very excited about drafting Groome. Getting him at 12 when he was projected 1 to 3. Time will tell, but in a couple years he could be a number one work horse. Still need to sign him.

[moonslav59]

I'm very excited about drafting Groome. Getting him at 12 when he was projected 1 to 3. Time will tell, but in a couple years he could be a number one work horse. Still need to sign him.

 

I shae the excitement, but it will probably be 3-5 years before we see him in Boston.

[Hugh2]

I shae the excitement, but it will probably be 3-5 years before we see him in Boston.

 

Not to nit pick, but I'd lower that time frame to 2-4 years. If he's as good as everyone hopes he is, we could easily see him as early as 2018.

 

His fastball is already there, he already has a big league change up, and he has a feel for a change up. Scouts say he already repeats his delivery and mechanics very well which is a very good sign for a raw high school player. With him, his development could have a lot to do with just building innings and arm strength.

 

Too far away to not rule out injury, bust or trade but having the prospect of Groome/Espinoza at the top of your rotation gives one a lot to dream on.

[harmony]

Not to nit pick, but I'd lower that time frame to 2-4 years. If he's as good as everyone hopes he is, we could easily see him as early as 2018.

 

His fastball is already there, he already has a big league change up, and he has a feel for a change up. Scouts say he already repeats his delivery and mechanics very well which is a very good sign for a raw high school player. With him, his development could have a lot to do with just building innings and arm strength.

 

Too far away to not rule out injury, bust or trade but having the prospect of Groome/Espinoza at the top of your rotation gives one a lot to dream on.

None of the high school pitchers taken in the first rounds of the 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts has made an MLB appearance to date. Jose Berrios and Lance McCullers are the only high school pitchers from the first round of the 2012 draft who have made MLB debuts.

 

We should temper our expectations for Jason Groome, who was passed over by 11 clubs for a variety of reasons (some not talent-related).

[Jack Flap]

None of the high school pitchers taken in the first rounds of the 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts has made an MLB appearance to date. Jose Berrios and Lance McCullers are the only high school pitchers from the first round of the 2012 draft who have made MLB debuts.

 

We should temper our expectations for Jason Groome, who was passed over by 11 clubs for a variety of reasons (some not talent-related).

 

I have yet to hear of any that were talent related.

[Nick]

Score is 15-4.....Clay is nibbling on the corners, trotting out every pitch he has in the arsenal, deep in thought, 150% focus. He walks two straight batters....pitching as though it was the game 7 of the world series.....what is wrong with him? You're up 11 runs. Twins are beaten down. Just let them hit it. Oooops....a double play grounder. Wow. I would hate to play behind him. Ugh

[harmony]

I have yet to hear of any that were talent related.

 

http://highschoolsports.nj.com/news/article/7832549342102810772/has-jason-groome-fallen-out-of-the-top-5-picks-in-the-mlb-draft/

[Dojji]

Calling it now, Groome will be our 7th inning reliever in 2019, flame out by August and never be heard from again.

[moonslav59]

None of the high school pitchers taken in the first rounds of the 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts has made an MLB appearance to date. Jose Berrios and Lance McCullers are the only high school pitchers from the first round of the 2012 draft who have made MLB debuts.

 

One reason I think 3-5 years is more realistic- maybe even 4-5 is better.

[Emp9]

"His fastball is already there, he already has a big league change up, and he has a feel for a change up."

 

That by itself is somewhat rare, no? I caught parts of the draft and it was mentioned that most HS pitchers develop a Change Up later on in the minors or to a varying degree don't have one at all.

 

I've no idea was his timeframe would be though. I'd be ecstatic if it were 3 yrs.

[cp176]

Deep breaths required of Red Sox fans once again when even thinking about our prospects. It sounds as though in the eyes of some that this kid has already gone by Espinoza. Remember him? To acquire a top of the line young current major league pitcher I would package them both and throw in Moncada to boot. They are prospects and they are a long ways away from Fenway.

[Dalas21000]

who's the female in the pic?

[a700hitter]

Calling it now, Groome will be our 7th inning reliever in 2019, flame out by August and never be heard from again.

Hopefully, he will be a big time pitcher for us some day. I just have a hard time getting excited about "some day". I really hope that he will be worth coming in last place. T Ball has been a long wait, and doesn't seem to be worth the last place finish.

Edited June 12, 2016 by a700hitter

[Bellhorn04]

Calling it now, Groome will be our 7th inning reliever in 2019, flame out by August and never be heard from again.

 

Pointlessly pessimistic prognostication.

[Hugh2]

None of the high school pitchers taken in the first rounds of the 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts has made an MLB appearance to date. Jose Berrios and Lance McCullers are the only high school pitchers from the first round of the 2012 draft who have made MLB debuts.

 

We should temper our expectations for Jason Groome, who was passed over by 11 clubs for a variety of reasons (some not talent-related).

 

While 2-4 years is admittedly very optimistic in no way is it unrealistic for an elite pitching prospect. Your quicky analysis is just that, quick and not insightful.

 

You can't even consider the 2015 draft because this would be 1 year later, and actually you still have to the end of this season.

The 2014 draft you still have until the end of this season, but the elite pitching prospect in that draft was Brady Aiken who got injured.

2013 was an insanely weak draft, the top high school pitchers in that draft would likely have ranked towards the bottom of the first round in this years draft. Remember not all draft prospects are created equal, and the talent varies, some years a draft is loaded with college pitchers other years the talent at the top is more high school players.

 

If you look at HS pitchers who were considered elite and in contention for the #1 pick then you are NOT going to have an apples to apples comparison every year. And some kids who did fit that Profile like Dylan Bundy did reach the majors in 1 year, but then he got injured. James Taillion made it to AAA in 3 years and was knocking on the door before he got injured.

 

Groome was arguably the #1 talent in the draft, and was considered the #1 talent by just about every outlet out there. I believe Baseball America had him 3rd but they also historically weight college players more.

 

It could take 6 years, he might not ever reach the majors. But if the kid is as good as everyone says he is, then saying he makes it to the majors in 4 years or less is not a stretch.

[Hugh2]

http://highschoolsports.nj.com/news/article/7832549342102810772/has-jason-groome-fallen-out-of-the-top-5-picks-in-the-mlb-draft/

 

Good job posting an article that was about 6 weeks prior to the draft, which in draft weeks is about 2 years. Boards and scouting consensus is a roller coaster leading up to the draft.

[Dojji]

Pointlessly pessimistic prognostication.

 

Pointlessly peevish postulation.

[Bellhorn04]

Pointlessly peevish postulation.

 

Don't close to your mind to the possibility of pleasant surprises.

[robert vonhalle]

While 2-4 years is admittedly very optimistic in no way is it unrealistic for an elite pitching prospect. Your quicky analysis is just that, quick and not insightful.

 

You can't even consider the 2015 draft because this would be 1 year later, and actually you still have to the end of this season.

The 2014 draft you still have until the end of this season, but the elite pitching prospect in that draft was Brady Aiken who got injured.

2013 was an insanely weak draft, the top high school pitchers in that draft would likely have ranked towards the bottom of the first round in this years draft. Remember not all draft prospects are created equal, and the talent varies, some years a draft is loaded with college pitchers other years the talent at the top is more high school players.

 

If you look at HS pitchers who were considered elite and in contention for the #1 pick then you are NOT going to have an apples to apples comparison every year. And some kids who did fit that Profile like Dylan Bundy did reach the majors in 1 year, but then he got injured. James Taillion made it to AAA in 3 years and was knocking on the door before he got injured.

 

Groome was arguably the #1 talent in the draft, and was considered the #1 talent by just about every outlet out there. I believe Baseball America had him 3rd but they also historically weight college players more.

 

It could take 6 years, he might not ever reach the majors. But if the kid is as good as everyone says he is, then saying he makes it to the majors in 4 years or less is not a stretch.

have to wonder why did he drop?????????????

[harmony]

While 2-4 years is admittedly very optimistic in no way is it unrealistic for an elite pitching prospect. Your quicky analysis is just that, quick and not insightful.

 

You can't even consider the 2015 draft because this would be 1 year later, and actually you still have to the end of this season.

The 2014 draft you still have until the end of this season, but the elite pitching prospect in that draft was Brady Aiken who got injured.

2013 was an insanely weak draft, the top high school pitchers in that draft would likely have ranked towards the bottom of the first round in this years draft. Remember not all draft prospects are created equal, and the talent varies, some years a draft is loaded with college pitchers other years the talent at the top is more high school players.

 

If you look at HS pitchers who were considered elite and in contention for the #1 pick then you are NOT going to have an apples to apples comparison every year. And some kids who did fit that Profile like Dylan Bundy did reach the majors in 1 year, but then he got injured. James Taillion made it to AAA in 3 years and was knocking on the door before he got injured.

 

Groome was arguably the #1 talent in the draft, and was considered the #1 talent by just about every outlet out there. I believe Baseball America had him 3rd but they also historically weight college players more.

 

It could take 6 years, he might not ever reach the majors. But if the kid is as good as everyone says he is, then saying he makes it to the majors in 4 years or less is not a stretch.

Fans naturally get excited about their team's draft picks and prospects but the statistics suggest that only a minority become productive MLB players.

 

Four years from now we should judge the progression of Jason Groome (and the four high school pitchers taken ahead on the lefthander in this year's draft).

[Hugh2]

have to wonder why did he drop?????????????

 

He slipped because he reportedly was telling teams he wanted top 3 money, had sign ability issues, and had make up concerns. He didn't slip because of talent and everyone is trying to figure out what the "make up" conerns are now in the after math because there don't appear to be any there.

 

The rumor in the scouting industry now is that some teams were floating around a ton of rumors about the kid because they wanted him to drop to their pick. One scout even said when asked what the craziest rumor about Groome he heard was that he was dead.

[Hugh2]

Fans naturally get excited about their team's draft picks and prospects but the statistics suggest that only a minority become productive MLB players.

 

Four years from now we should judge the progression of Jason Groome (and the four high school pitchers taken ahead on the lefthander in this year's draft).

 

Yes but Hill you should now by now that I'm not your typical fan that reads one paragraph on a guy they draft and then never look at them again. I follow minor league baseball more than I follow the big league team. I also follow the MLB draft as much as rabid NFL fan follows the NFL draft. I understand to most fans its very boring and they don't understand the complexities of it.

 

Do you actually think that other teams drafted 4 pitchers ahead of Groome because they thought he was more talented than them? I mean, I'm sure it's possible but Groome was almost by consensus the most talented player in the draft. The #1 ranked guy on talent often doesn't go number one. Sometimes they slip because teams prefer college talent because the floor is higher, or they go with a guy they have a deal cut with. Sometimes players slip due to sign ability, injury, make up etc etc.

 

Yes you take the BPA, but that is a general rule that has many caveats that are very particular to the MLB draft.

 

Now, if you remember me from the BDC forums you would now that I know my prospects. I bet on talent, I always bet on talent, and I'm 100% aware that they don't pan out. I talk about guys potential, but I'm the first one to point out when a guy doesn't make it that there is a risk associated with prospects. I was one of the only guy to defend JBJ over the years, or Bogaerts in 2014 yet I'm fully aware that I will get burned by the Lars Anderson, Will Middlebrooks, and Allen Websters of the world but I can live with that because I know that if you bet on talent and draft and develop well you end up with Bogaerts, JBJ, Betts in your lineup. I'm 100% fully aware that Groome might not ever make it above AA ball. That doesn't mean I can't get excited about the Red Sox drafting a guy who has more perceived talent than they've ever drafted. I'm prospects fan, and a huge draft fan so stop being a draft buzz killington.

[moonslav59]

Yes but Hill you should now by now that I'm not your typical fan that reads one paragraph on a guy they draft and then never look at them again. I follow minor league baseball more than I follow the big league team. I also follow the MLB draft as much as rabid NFL fan follows the NFL draft. I understand to most fans its very boring and they don't understand the complexities of it.

 

Do you actually think that other teams drafted 4 pitchers ahead of Groome because they thought he was more talented than them? I mean, I'm sure it's possible but Groome was almost by consensus the most talented player in the draft. The #1 ranked guy on talent often doesn't go number one. Sometimes they slip because teams prefer college talent because the floor is higher, or they go with a guy they have a deal cut with. Sometimes players slip due to sign ability, injury, make up etc etc.

 

Yes you take the BPA, but that is a general rule that has many caveats that are very particular to the MLB draft.

 

Now, if you remember me from the BDC forums you would now that I know my prospects. I bet on talent, I always bet on talent, and I'm 100% aware that they don't pan out. I talk about guys potential, but I'm the first one to point out when a guy doesn't make it that there is a risk associated with prospects. I was one of the only guy to defend JBJ over the years, or Bogaerts in 2014 yet I'm fully aware that I will get burned by the Lars Anderson, Will Middlebrooks, and Allen Websters of the world but I can live with that because I know that if you bet on talent and draft and develop well you end up with Bogaerts, JBJ, Betts in your lineup. I'm 100% fully aware that Groome might not ever make it above AA ball. That doesn't mean I can't get excited about the Red Sox drafting a guy who has more perceived talent than they've ever drafted. I'm prospects fan, and a huge draft fan so stop being a draft buzz killington.

 

Well said. I have always enjoyed your input on prospects. I share your excitement over this draft. I guess it's easy to become negative when so much of MLB drafting is a crapshoot, but Groome clearly has talent. At his age, I think immaturity is the expectation not the exception.

 

I'm psyched by the pick.

[harmony]

Yes but Hill you should now by now that I'm not your typical fan that reads one paragraph on a guy they draft and then never look at them again. I follow minor league baseball more than I follow the big league team. I also follow the MLB draft as much as rabid NFL fan follows the NFL draft. I understand to most fans its very boring and they don't understand the complexities of it.

 

Do you actually think that other teams drafted 4 pitchers ahead of Groome because they thought he was more talented than them? I mean, I'm sure it's possible but Groome was almost by consensus the most talented player in the draft. The #1 ranked guy on talent often doesn't go number one. Sometimes they slip because teams prefer college talent because the floor is higher, or they go with a guy they have a deal cut with. Sometimes players slip due to sign ability, injury, make up etc etc.

 

Yes you take the BPA, but that is a general rule that has many caveats that are very particular to the MLB draft.

 

Now, if you remember me from the BDC forums you would now that I know my prospects. I bet on talent, I always bet on talent, and I'm 100% aware that they don't pan out. I talk about guys potential, but I'm the first one to point out when a guy doesn't make it that there is a risk associated with prospects. I was one of the only guy to defend JBJ over the years, or Bogaerts in 2014 yet I'm fully aware that I will get burned by the Lars Anderson, Will Middlebrooks, and Allen Websters of the world but I can live with that because I know that if you bet on talent and draft and develop well you end up with Bogaerts, JBJ, Betts in your lineup. I'm 100% fully aware that Groome might not ever make it above AA ball. That doesn't mean I can't get excited about the Red Sox drafting a guy who has more perceived talent than they've ever drafted. I'm prospects fan, and a huge draft fan so stop being a draft buzz killington.

I can understand why a Red Sox fan would be pleased with the selection of Jason Groome but I questioned the suggestions that the lefthander would be in Boston "in 2-4 years."

 

I humbly provided the MLB experience of all high school pitchers taken in the previous four MLB drafts. Groome faces long odds of pitching at the MLB level within four years.

 

But again I understand why a Red Sox fan would be pleased with the Groome pick just as this Seattle fan is pleased with the Mariners' selection of college outfielder Kyle Lewis with the preceding pick at No. 11. As Groome dropped from No. 1 in the MLB.com draft projection to the No. 12 pick, Lewis dropped from No. 3 to the No. 11 pick:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=draft

 

Whereas Groome dropped in part because of signability issues, Lewis apparently had no signability issues, inking at slot value and taking batting practice at Safeco Field before Saturday evening's game. Perhaps Lewis dropped because of talent issues, but Lewis, who succeeded Andrew Benintendi as Baseball America's College Player of the Year, still drew rave reviews on draft day. Prospect guru Jim Callis of MLB.com wrote:

 

Callis: What a steal for the Mariners. If I had the No. 1 pick in this draft I would have taken Lewis there. I think it's the best combination of ceiling and floor in this draft. Even if he doesn't stay in center field, that power profiles so well on the corner. I think the concerns about quality of competition he faced at Mercer are overblown, because what more could this guy do? He stood out in the Cape Cod League -- a showcase for top college prospects -- and he dominated the Southern Conference the last two years. I'm all in.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/183086774/mlb-draft-pick-by-pick-selections-analysis

 

The Red Sox face an interesting task of signing Groome, who significantly increased his leverage by committing to a junior college instead of to Vanderbilt. Groome will demand top dollar that will far exceed the slot amount at No. 12. If the Sox don't meet his demands Groome will play a year at the junior college and return to next year's draft. If the Red Sox meet his demands the Sox will need to reduce their offers to other draft picks or face substantial penalties.

 

I don't doubt that teams with higher draft picks were scared off by Groome's anticipated demands and his option to re-enter next year's draft.

 

I offer this not because I think Seattle drafted a better player than Boston did. I offer this because although I am pleased with the Mariners' pick I am not making any outlandish projections.

 

Let's hope that someday Groome and Lewis are teammates on the American League All Star Team ... but that's a hope, not a projection.

Edited June 12, 2016 by harmony

[User Name]

So what you're saying with all of this verbosity is that you're trying to s*** on people's parades? Got it.

[Hugh2]

I can understand why a Red Sox fan would be pleased with the selection of Jason Groome but I questioned the suggestions that the lefthander would be in Boston "in 2-4 years."

 

I humbly provided the MLB experience of all high school pitchers taken in the previous four MLB drafts. Groome faces long odds of pitching at the MLB level within four years.

 

But again I understand why a Red Sox fan would be pleased with the Groome pick just as this Seattle fan is pleased with the Mariners' selection of college outfielder Kyle Lewis with the preceding pick at No. 11. As Groome dropped from No. 1 in the MLB.com draft projection to the No. 12 pick, Lewis dropped from No. 3 to the No. 11 pick:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=draft

 

Whereas Groome dropped in part because of signability issues, Lewis apparently had no signability issues, inking at slot value and taking batting practice at Safeco Field before Saturday evening's game. Perhaps Lewis dropped because of talent issues, but Lewis, who succeeded Andrew Benintendi as Baseball America's College Player of the Year, still drew rave reviews on draft day. Prospect guru Jim Callis of MLB.com wrote:

 

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/183086774/mlb-draft-pick-by-pick-selections-analysis

 

The Red Sox face an interesting task of signing Groome, who significantly increased his leverage by committing to a junior college instead of to Vanderbilt. Groome will demand top dollar that will far exceed the slot amount at No. 12. If the Sox don't meet his demands Groome will play a year at the junior college and return to next year's draft. If the Red Sox meet his demands the Sox will need to reduce their offers to other draft picks or face substantial penalties.

 

I don't doubt that teams with higher draft picks were scared off by Groome's anticipated demands and his option to re-enter next year's draft.

 

I offer this not because I think Seattle drafted a better player than Boston did. I offer this because although I am pleased with the Mariners' pick I am not making any outlandish projections.

 

Let's hope that someday Groome and Lewis are teammates on the American League All Star Team ... but that's a hope, not a projection.

 

 

For fear of continuing to derail this thread I will respond again kindly and suggest we take the conversation over to the minor league draft thread. My fault, I take responsibility for my part.

 

But giving me examples over the last 2-4 years again does absolutely nothing. Firstly, just going back 4 years provides for 3 more years from players in subsequent drafts being able to reach the majors within 4 years. Regardless, that is a ridiculously small sample size, and also it suggests that all things are equal and they are NOT. The strength of each draft class varies and the strengths within it varies as well. zero HS pitchers were taken in last years draft in the top 12. Three were taken the prior year in 2014, but the highest rated guy talent wise has suffered injuries (Brady Aiken). The two years prior were also considered weak years talent wise, Trey Ball would never of been a top 15 pick in this draft. And only 1 HS pitcher was taken in 2012.

 

Now this brings us to 2016, which was considered a very talented draft on the HS pitching side, now that talent might not materialize but that is what it is. We had six high school pitchers taken in the top 12 which was 50% of the top of the draft. Now you can sit here and point out that 5 were taken before him because they most of been better, and none of us truly know were teams had guys ranked talent wise but if that is your only justification for saying Jay Groome wasn't the regarded as the most talented pitcher leading up to the draft then I'd say that you just weren't paying attention to this years draft.

 

Now, your original point was that my hypothetical projection was outrageous and expectations should be tempered. That statement is irrelevant and not needed. My original post eluded to that "outlandish" time line with the caveats "If he's as good as everyone hopes he is" and I also said "Too far away to rule out injury, bust or trade" So I've fully excepted the fact that he could reach the majors in a longer time frame or never at all but you miss my point. Right now he is regarded as having the talent to be a true top of the rotation talent and if he IS THAT then he could easily fly through the majors much quicker than a typical prospect without those limitations and stipulations that I admitted too.

 

You don't have to temper my expectations, I'm fully aware of what can right or wrong in prospect development. I'm not making an outlandish projection, it's not outlandish at all because I'm not projecting him to be in the majors in 2-4 years. If he reaches his ceiling or comes close to it then I think he easily could fly through the system in that time frame...there is a difference between those two statements.

 

P.S. I like Kyle Lewis, you guys got a good steal.

[Jack Flap]

http://highschoolsports.nj.com/news/article/7832549342102810772/has-jason-groome-fallen-out-of-the-top-5-picks-in-the-mlb-draft/

 

Good job finding an article from a month before the draft about Groome having a bad start, I guess. Pretty much every expert had him ranked as one of the top talents in the draft this month, with signability and/or makeup concerns causing him to fall to #12. But I know you know this.

[EDIT: Hugh pretty much said this already...that's what I get for not reading first.]

 

For what it's worth, I agree that we shouldn't plan on seeing Groome in the majors for a few years at least. The kid doesn't even turn 18 until August. I'm as excited as anyone about the possibilities, but let's get him signed and pitching in professional games before we start penciling him into our rotation.

Edited June 13, 2016 by Jack Flap

[mvp 78]

Porcello's ERA is down to 3.81 and his WHIP is 1.08. He's the second best pitcher on the team right now. If he can pitch like this for the next few years, his contract will be well worth it.

[User Name]

Nah, Porcello is a flaming bag of dog s*** even though he's been above average by ERA-, WAR and pretty much any non-FIP measurement, and has been the victim of a horrible schedule. DFA Porcello!

[Spudboy]

I think Porcello is what we see of him now.