Clay Buchholz - Is he worth the 2016 option?

[moonslav59]

But now we bring a new question into the equation. I could see the rationale for letting him walk if we got that high quality starting pitcher because he then wouldn't be worth the $13M to us, but some other team looking for pitching would snap him up in a heartbeat, possibly in a shorter time deal, for more than $13M.

 

FWIW I'd exercise the option anyway just because "you can't have too much pitching".

 

At worst, we take the option and trade him.

[mvp 78]

trying to sign him at reliever money to minimize risk. as moon stated, very doubtful he would take it anyway but if i were DD i would lay that on the table.

 

That's a little high for reliever money though. The highest AAV in last year's FA class for relievers was $8.3.

 

He's still going to want starter money probably similar to Chen's 5/80.

 

I guess it never hurts to ask?

[a700hitter]

4 year / $36MM contract right now. take it or leave it.

i wouldn't offer that.

[Spudboy]

i wouldn't offer that.

 

Me either.

 

Offer the dumb f*** 1/7-9 or let him walk.

 

We need numbers 6-8 starters but I bet there are better options.

[Slasher9]

ok. but he was our best pitcher the end of the season and the best pitcher in the ALDS.

im ok with low balling him. i think thats what my offer is.

[Bellhorn04]

ok. but he was our best pitcher the end of the season and the best pitcher in the ALDS.

 

Porcello was our best pitcher at the end of the season.

 

Sept numbers

 

Porcello 4-1 2.70 ERA .88 WHIP

Buch 3-0 3.14 ERA 1.15 WHIP

[Spudboy]

Porcello was our best pitcher at the end of the season.

 

Sept numbers

 

Porcello 4-1 2.70 ERA .88 WHIP

Buch 3-0 3.14 ERA 1.15 WHIP

 

Hence Big Dick Rick.

 

I had to get it in there at least one more time.

 

Did I say get it in there?

[mvp 78]

Hence Big Dick Rick.

 

I had to get it in there at least one more time.

 

Did I say get it in there?

 

At least you didn't say "pray the Clay away."

[Bellhorn04]

It's a done deal. mvp wins the sig bet with me.

[moonslav59]

Assuming everyone is 100% healthy, here's how I see our rotation rankings:

 

1) Porcello

2) Price (could pass Porcello in 2017)

3) ERod (still has upside potential)

4) Wright (had the best half season of any of our starters this year)

5) Pomeranz (had a great first half this year)

6) Buchholz (We won't get fooled again- The Who)

 

[NativeBostonian]

This must be some kind of cruel joke. Why can't we seem to get rid of this guy? He only shows up for one month of the season.

[Eddy Ballgame]

Assuming everyone is 100% healthy, here's how I see our rotation rankings:

 

1) Porcello

2) Price (could pass Porcello in 2017)

3) ERod (still has upside potential)

4) Wright (had the best half season of any of our starters this year)

5) Pomeranz (had a great first half this year)

6) Buchholz (We won't get fooled again- The Who)

 

 

That sounds about right. I think they'll shop Buchholz pretty heavily this winter, though. Not much out there for available starting pitching. He definitely has some value.

[Kimmi]

I think his option being picked up this year just goes to show how much of a no brainer it was to pick up his option last year.

 

Go Clay!

[Bellhorn04]

Ah well, good for him getting another 13 million. God help me, I still have a soft spot for the little bastard.

[Bellhorn04]

I must say I enjoyed the jokes this year about Buchholz and Kelly being a couple of bastards.

[a700hitter]

Ah well, good for him getting another 13 million. God help me, I still have a soft spot for the little bastard.

He's worth $26 million using WAR

[moonslav59]

That sounds about right. I think they'll shop Buchholz pretty heavily this winter, though. Not much out there for available starting pitching. He definitely has some value.

 

I'm thinking the same thing. We may not have the luxury to keep 6 starters in the fold, but invariably teams end up needing at least 6 starters. I guess, if we plan on using Pom in relief (at a reasonable cost), then maybe keeping him makes more sense.

 

$13M is a lot to pay for a middle relief guy.

 

Here's a look at how often we have needed a 6th starter or more over recent years:

 

2016: Price 35, Porcello 33, Buch 21, ERod 20, Kelly 6

6th: Wright 24

7th: Pomeranz 13

8th: Owens 5

9th O'Sullivan 4

10th: Elias 1

Total: 47

 

2015: Porcello 28, Miley 32, Kelly 25, Buch 18, Masterson 9

6th: ERod 21

7th: Owens 11

8th: Wright 9

9th: Hill 4

10th: Breslow, Barnes & Johnson 5

Total: 50

 

2014: midseason rotation purge makes it too difficult to keep track.

 

2013: Lester 33, LAckey 29, Buch 16, Demp 29, Doub 27

6th: Peavy 10

7th: Webster 7

8th: Aceves 6

9th Workman, Morales & Wright 5

Total: 28

 

2012: Lester 33, Lackey 0, Beckett 21, Buch 29, DiceK 11

6th: Doubront 29

7th: Bard 10

8th: Cook 18

9th: Morales 9

10th: Stewart 1

Total: 67

 

 

 

 

[Spudboy]

He's worth $26 million using WAR

 

Post of the year candidate.

 

a700 rules.

[a700hitter]

post of the year candidate.

 

A700 rules.

lol!!

[Slasher9]

I think his option being picked up this year just goes to show how much of a no brainer it was to pick up his option last year.

 

Go Clay!

 

100% agree.

Go Kimmi & Slasher!

[Bellhorn04]

He's worth $26 million using WAR

 

Double no brainer.

[Dojji]

He's worth the option if we do the intelligent thing and start him in the bullpen on Opening Day. We will not do that, so honestly I'd rather move him.

[Bellhorn04]

Clay will probably celebrate by spending the next month smoking Acapulco Gold and playing video games.

[Slasher9]

Clay will probably celebrate by spending the next month smoking Acapulco Gold and playing video games.

 

LOL!

add "drink some moonshine and shoot stuff" and you nailed it....

Edited November 4, 2016 by Slasher9

[Bellhorn04]

He's worth the option if we do the intelligent thing and start him in the bullpen on Opening Day. We will not do that, so honestly I'd rather move him.

 

Dojji, in case you haven't noticed, buddy, we have no starting pitching depth, unless you count Henry Owens. moonslav's post above illustrates the need for #6 and #7 starters.

[Dojji]

And if I thought that the team would actually put Buchholz in the 6 spot, I would have no problem with the option being picked up. It's the fact that I know he's going to find a way to fool us and supplant a patently more deserving starter and put THEM in the 6th spot that's making me unhappy.

 

Buchholz has always been about doing just enough to get a job and not enough to DO the job. Any time his job is threatened he magically improves and any time he's secure he either pulls up lame or starts sucking -- it's actually remarkable how often he's pulled that crap and people still don't see it coming when he does it again..

 

I don't mind having Clay on the team but I want him to spend all year having to earn every start he gets. Maybe that's the way to finally get good-Buchholz all year. But we already know that won't happen, the staff is too in love with the prospect he used to be. He's going to sucker the staff into his "ace potential" and become secure in his job and the whole mess will start again.-- he's the only 32 year old pitcher in the world that can still sell himself on potential, and he's going to do it again, just you watch

Edited November 4, 2016 by Dojji

[sk7326]

Option was easy - he can be a very effective swingman. He could be a good starter too - it would be nice if he and the sox figured out which.

 

I mean if you look at the rotation, you have Price, Porcello and some combination of Pomeranz, Rodriguez, Wright and Buchholz

 

Now I think Rodriguez has the most ceiling - he flashed legit top of the rotation potential. If he supplanted Porcello by the end of 2017 I would not be shocked. Wright is a knuckleballer - we know the deal with that. Buchholz we have to accept as genuinely inconsistent - productive for his salary, but hard to treat as any sort of constant. Pomeranz is sort of in the middle, considerable potential (not as high as ERod) with a little narrower range of outcomes.

Edited November 4, 2016 by sk7326

[sk7326]

And if I thought that the team would actually put Buchholz in the 6 spot, I would have no problem with the option being picked up. It's the fact that I know he's going to find a way to fool us and supplant a patently more deserving starter and put THEM in the 6th spot that's making me unhappy.

 

Buchholz has always been about doing just enough to get a job and not enough to DO the job. Any time his job is threatened he magically improves and any time he's secure he either pulls up lame or starts sucking -- it's actually remarkable how often he's pulled that crap and people still don't see it coming when he does it again..

 

I don't mind having Clay on the team but I want him to spend all year having to earn every start he gets. Maybe that's the way to finally get good-Buchholz all year. But we already know that won't happen, the staff is too in love with the prospect he used to be. He's going to sucker the staff into his "ace potential" and become secure in his job and the whole mess will start again.-- he's the only 32 year old pitcher in the world that can still sell himself on potential, and he's going to do it again, just you watch

 

If Buchholz supplants somebody - it will be because he earned it

[mvp 78]

If Buchholz supplants somebody - it will be because he earned it

 

Yup, they were happy to throw him in the pen with a similar salary this past year. I don't think the option guarantees him a rotation spot.

[sk7326]

I actually think he'd be more valuable that way - a guy who can pitch more than 1 inning at a time and then spot the 5th starter spot the times when it comes up.

 

This postseason in particular (not that you'd manage the regular season that way in entirety) has given more motivation to reimagining how pitching staffs work in general.