Clay Buchholz - Is he worth the 2016 option?

[a700hitter]

The organization may have also felt that even with his decline they weren't going to get a better pitcher for that kind of money on a one year deal. ..

Ha. You have got me there. It is possible that the organization felt that $13 million was a good rate for garbage.

[S5Dewey]

The thing about Clay is that he became a half-year pitcher, but during that half-year his stuff approached 'ace' status. I understand why the FO wanted to sign him. You just don't turn your back on stuff like that. Instead you sign him and hope that he becomes more durable.

 

If you think that $26M is a reasonable price to pay as a full year's salary for someone who has near 'ace' stuff then $13M is reasonable for a half year. When you sign that contract you just have to know what you're getting - and that it's probably only going to be for a half season.

[notin]

Ha. You have got me there. It is possible that the organization felt that $13 million was a good rate for garbage.

 

Or maybe the going rate for it.

 

Maybe I'm alone in this regard, but I worry more about the years thsn the money. I don't have to pay any of the latter but I have to watch all of the former. .

[Jack Flap]

I always thought we should have been able to find a way to talk Hill into staying. The "we had no room for him" argument was based on the presence of Buchholz and Kelly, who (not shockingly) combined for just 27 starts and ended up sharing the rotation for about three weeks out of the season.

 

Regardless, Buchholz was pretty good in 2015 before getting hurt (my preference was to trade him that July and get some value in return, but alas), and picking up his option for the following year was a reasonable decision. After Price and Porcello, our 2016 rotation was full of question marks (it took an unexpected breakout from Wright and a midseason trade for Pomeranz for us to make it through the year), and as Notin pointed out, it's unlikely anyone else we could have gotten for the same money would be any more of a sure thing.

[Spudboy]

This topic has been talked about enough.

 

Some feel resigning the dope was a decent and reasonable move for 13 mil. I don't agree. He was never going to be an ace at that point. His promise of elite pitching was only demonstrated for brief periods and then he was either injured or he sucked again.

 

This would leave a void at mid-season. Necessitating bringing in another stiff to fill in for him.

 

Not exactly a bargain. And really, those that say it was a reasonable move at the time have been proven wrong once again.

 

See the quote from UN in my sig.

[Sox75]

His wife or girlfriend is HOT, & he's a very nice guy if you see him in public. Freely gives his autograph & will chat a bit. Not at all bug-eyed as he always is in front of a camera. For the record, his buddy Porcello is kind of a dismissive dick.

 

LOL :0 Yeh. I'd take him back for 2 million to finish the year.

[Jack Flap]

This topic has been talked about enough.

 

Some feel resigning the dope was a decent and reasonable move for 13 mil. I don't agree. He was never going to be an ace at that point. His promise of elite pitching was only demonstrated for brief periods and then he was either injured or he sucked again.

 

This would leave a void at mid-season. Necessitating bringing in another stiff to fill in for him.

 

Not exactly a bargain. And really, those that say it was a reasonable move at the time have been proven wrong once again.

 

See the quote from UN in my sig.

 

 

I can't really disagree with any of that.

 

I don't know how I get roped into sticking up for Clay even two years after the fact...fool's errand if there ever was one, lol.

[a700hitter]

His wife or girlfriend is HOT, & he's a very nice guy if you see him in public. Freely gives his autograph & will chat a bit. Not at all bug-eyed as he always is in front of a camera. For the record, his buddy Porcello is kind of a dismissive dick.

 

LOL :0 Yeh. I'd take him back for 2 million to finish the year.

Which year. Once he goes out with an injury, he doesn't show up until the following spring. No MLB team will see him until March 2019. LOL!! Slow healer.

[Slasher9]

the best part is that i actually started this thread as a veiled shot at Price.

so...the question was.....

if you were NOT OK with give clay $13MM for 1 season....were you OK with giving Price $31MM x 7?????????

[Sox75]

Which year. Once he goes out with an injury, he doesn't show up until the following spring. No MLB team will see him until March 2019. LOL!! Slow healer.

 

Only 2M! Plus, I really just want to see his wife again!

[Kimmi]

i still believe picking up the $13MM option was a no brainer.

the LT still got reset.

 

It was a no brainer. The rewards far outweighed any risks.

[Kimmi]

Or maybe the going rate for it.

 

Maybe I'm alone in this regard, but I worry more about the years thsn the money. I don't have to pay any of the latter but I have to watch all of the former. .

 

I'm with you on the years versus money thing.

[Kimmi]

I always thought we should have been able to find a way to talk Hill into staying. The "we had no room for him" argument was based on the presence of Buchholz and Kelly, who (not shockingly) combined for just 27 starts and ended up sharing the rotation for about three weeks out of the season.

 

Regardless, Buchholz was pretty good in 2015 before getting hurt (my preference was to trade him that July and get some value in return, but alas), and picking up his option for the following year was a reasonable decision. After Price and Porcello, our 2016 rotation was full of question marks (it took an unexpected breakout from Wright and a midseason trade for Pomeranz for us to make it through the year), and as Notin pointed out, it's unlikely anyone else we could have gotten for the same money would be any more of a sure thing.

 

Solid post Jack.

[Kimmi]

the best part is that i actually started this thread as a veiled shot at Price.

so...the question was.....

if you were NOT OK with give clay $13MM for 1 season....were you OK with giving Price $31MM x 7?????????

 

That type of logic just blows my mind. Seriously.

[mvp 78]

the best part is that i actually started this thread as a veiled shot at Price.

so...the question was.....

if you were NOT OK with give clay $13MM for 1 season....were you OK with giving Price $31MM x 7?????????

 

Yes, because Price is 3x the pitcher Clay is.

[Spudboy]

It was a no brainer. The rewards far outweighed any risks.

 

What?

 

Please explain how Buch returned rewards exceeding his cost.

 

He sucked donkey dick most of those years.

[mvp 78]

Buch would’ve certainly been worth 13M on the DL is a new one for me.

[Hugh2]

He could've been a true ace in a hypothetical universe where the baseball season is 81 games long.

[Slasher9]

Yes, because Price is 3x the pitcher Clay is.

Your math is whack.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, because Price is 3x the pitcher Clay is.

 

Your math is whack.

 

His math holds up, actually.

 

They're around the same age-Price is a little younger.

 

Price's career fWAR is around 40.

 

Buch's career fWAR is around 15.

[Slasher9]

His math holds up, actually.

 

They're around the same age-Price is a little younger.

 

Price's career fWAR is around 40.

 

Buch's career fWAR is around 15.

 

1 x 13MM = 13

7 x 31MM = 217

217 / 13 = 16.69

16.69 > 3x (Price is 3x the pitcher Clay)

[Slasher9]

then we should have given price a 3 year / $39MM contract.

[Bellhorn04]

then we should have given price a 3 year / $39MM contract.

 

We all know how the baseball free agent market works, Slash. Elite talent gets ridiculous paydays. Buch is not an elite talent, so the initial comparison was apples to oranges anyway. But mvp's 3 times the pitcher is about right.

[SoxnCycles]

We all know how the baseball free agent market works, Slash. Elite talent gets ridiculous paydays. Buch is not an elite talent, so the initial comparison was apples to oranges anyway. But mvp's 3 times the pitcher is about right.

 

Let me know when Price pitches like an elite talent.

For an entire season, not 1/2.

[Slasher9]

We all know how the baseball free agent market works, Slash. Elite talent gets ridiculous paydays. Buch is not an elite talent, so the initial comparison was apples to oranges anyway. But mvp's 3 times the pitcher is about right.

 

oh i would not argue against price being 3x the talent that clay has been over their careers. and as i've tried to explain my math comment was not about talent but about price / years. that was my original point....

if you were NOT OK with Clay at 1 year for $13MM...then are you OK with Price at 7 years for $217MM. 217 is way more than 3x 13. that was my point about the math.

[moonslav59]

Let me know when Price pitches like an elite talent.

For an entire season, not 1/2.

 

Last year was the only time since his first season way back in 2009 that Price's GS'd went below 27.

 

He's started 31-34 games in 7 out of 8 seasons before 2017, and you are now using durability as a point of criticism.

 

BTW, he's on pace for 32 starts this year.

 

[Slasher9]

Let me know when Price pitches like an elite talent.

For an entire season, not 1/2.

im hoping this is the year.

he's had 2 of them in his career: 2010 & 2012.

unfortunately we are paying for him for 2016 - 2022.

 

Clay also had 2 of them in his career: 2010 & 2013

fortunately we only paid for 2016.

 

some just cannot see the point.

[Slasher9]

Last year was the only time since his first season way back in 2009 that Price's GS'd went below 27.

 

He's started 31-34 games in 7 out of 8 seasons before 2017, and you are now using durability as a point of criticism.

 

BTW, he's on pace for 32 starts this year.

 

 

he's only had 2 seasons that i would call his pitching "elite talent" . i think that is what SnC meant.

 

unless you are OK with 7 years / 217MM for an "innings eater"?

[Kimmi]

Yes, because Price is 3x the pitcher Clay is.

 

Price is 3X the pitcher so we're going to pay him 16 times as much???

 

Sorry, but 7 years for a pitcher in his 30s is crazy, no matter how good the pitcher is.

[Kimmi]

What?

 

Please explain how Buch returned rewards exceeding his cost.

 

He sucked donkey dick most of those years.

 

My bad. Potential rewards.

 

The potential rewards that we might have gotten from Clay are most definitely worth taking a chance on at $13 million for one year.

 

And I would have gladly taken a chance on Clay this year on a minor league contract.