A Realistic View at 2016

[moonslav59]

I mentioned this on another thread about how we seem to outscore our opponents in many series that we end up losing or splitting, but it never seems to go in reverse...ever. When is the last time we were outscored in a series but won or even tied the series?

 

Let's look. Series in reverse order starting from yesterday:

 

Outscored the A's 27-5 but only won 2 of 3. (lost 1 gm by 1 run)

Outscored the Rays 20-14 & won 2 of 3 (lost 1 by 1 run)

We were outscored 19-15 by KC and lost 2 of 3.

Outscored the Rays 12-8 but split 2-2 (lost 2 by 1 run).

Outscored the Tigers 21-18 but split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 run).

Outscored the O's and Guardians 16-6 and won all 3 games.

Outscored AZ 31-9 and somehow won all three.

Were outscored by the Yanks 16-11 and lost 2 of 3.

Outscored the Dodgers 14-11 AND LOST 2-1!

Were outscored 11-10 by Seattle and managed a split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 and 1 by 2).

Outscored the Angels 14-12 and just split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 run).

Were outscored by Detroit 17-13 and were swept (2 by 1 tun).

Outscored the Twins 31-22 and split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 and 1 by 2).

Outscored the Giants 15-7 and swept them 2-0.

Outscored the Yanks 11-8 and won 2 of 3.

Outscored the Rays 14-6 and swept them 3-0.

Outscored the Rangers 25-18 and won 2 of 3.

Were outscored by the Angels 30-17 BUT WON 2 of 3 (lost 21-2).

 

That was the last time.

 

Other times we were outscored but split or won this year?

 

None.

 

So basically...

 

We were outscored in a series but still won the series .one time.

 

We were outscored by the opps one time and split.

 

We outscored the opps and split 4 times.

 

We outscored the opps and lost the series 1 time.

 

 

 

[Nick]

I mentioned this on another thread about how we seem to outscore our opponents in many series that we end up losing or splitting, but it never seems to go in reverse...ever. When is the last time we were outscored in a series but won or even tied the series?

 

Let's look. Series in reverse order starting from yesterday:

 

Outscored the A's 27-5 but only won 2 of 3. (lost 1 gm by 1 run)

Outscored the Rays 20-14 & won 2 of 3 (lost 1 by 1 run)

We were outscored 19-15 by KC and lost 2 of 3.

Outscored the Rays 12-8 but split 2-2 (lost 2 by 1 run).

Outscored the Tigers 21-18 but split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 run).

Outscored the O's and Guardians 16-6 and won all 3 games.

Outscored AZ 31-9 and somehow won all three.

Were outscored by the Yanks 16-11 and lost 2 of 3.

Outscored the Dodgers 14-11 AND LOST 2-1!

Were outscored 11-10 by Seattle and managed a split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 and 1 by 2).

Outscored the Angels 14-12 and just split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 run).

Were outscored by Detroit 17-13 and were swept (2 by 1 tun).

Outscored the Twins 31-22 and split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 and 1 by 2).

Outscored the Giants 15-7 and swept them 2-0.

Outscored the Yanks 11-8 and won 2 of 3.

Outscored the Rays 14-6 and swept them 3-0.

Outscored the Rangers 25-18 and won 2 of 3.

Were outscored by the Angels 30-17 BUT WON 2 of 3 (lost 21-2).

 

That was the last time.

 

Other times we were outscored but split or won this year?

 

None.

 

So basically...

 

We were outscored in a series but still won the series .one time.

 

We were outscored by the opps one time and split.

 

We outscored the opps and split 4 times.

 

We outscored the opps and lost the series 1 time.

 

 

 

 

We're not tough......Exhibit 1....Xander Bogaerts. People keep saying that he's out of slump but I don't see it. He needs to be moved down in the line up. He's become a rally killer. I haven't even checked the stats. It just feels like he's not hitting.

 

I used the analogy of a SEC team running up the score on mid major team. That's us.

[S5Dewey]

We're not tough......Exhibit 1....Xander Bogaerts. People keep saying that he's out of slump but I don't see it. He needs to be moved down in the line up. He's become a rally killer. I haven't even checked the stats. It just feels like he's not hitting.

 

I used the analogy of a SEC team running up the score on mid major team. That's us.

 

Yes. I've been saying for some time that what the Red Sox have proven this year is that they're a team that can really kick the snot out of a bad pitching staff.

[moonslav59]

Yes. I've been saying for some time that what the Red Sox have proven this year is that they're a team that can really kick the snot out of a bad pitching staff.

 

They've actually bashed some good pitchers too.

 

[moonslav59]

The Astros-Guardians game is still going on, but here are the standings as of now:

 

Toronto +1 on BOS

 

BOS +1 on BAL & DET

 

BAL & DET are tied for the last WC slot.

 

HOU -2.5

NYY -3.5

KCR -4.0

SEA -5.0

[Wade Boggs]

The Astros-Guardians game is still going on, but here are the standings as of now:

 

Toronto +1 on BOS

 

BOS +1 on BAL & DET

 

BAL & DET are tied for the last WC slot.

 

HOU -2.5

NYY -3.5

KCR -4.0

SEA -5.0

 

I'm getting nervous.

 

The Tigers I'd be worried about if they don't win the East... Upton feels like playing.

[moonslav59]

Detroit worries me too, but there's room for both of us.

 

Let's just win the division and solve this whole problem.

 

Playing a WC game will mess up our rotation.

[Nick]

Xander batted .219 in August....He's 3-15 in September. He's completely lost at the plate. I understand loyalty but you have to do what's best for the team.

 

Holaday is 4-28......Hanigan at .173...some ugly numbers.....

[moonslav59]

The second half sample size is getting larger everyday.

 

Our starters have the best 2nd Half WAR in MLB:

 

6.3 BOS

5.6 TBR

5.2 CUB

5.2 NYM

4.4 WSH

4.1 DET

4.0 TOR

 

ERA-

60 CUB

79 BOS

81 DET

83 TBR

88 KCR

89 COL

89 WSH

 

WHIP

0.99 CUB

1.14 DET

1.15 BOS

1.15 WSH

1.17 TBR

1.26 NYY

1.27 TOR

 

We now have a top 3 rotation and the best offense in MLB.

 

We are ranked 8th in defense (UZR/150).

 

We are ranked 7th in base running.

 

Our only real statistical weakness is our pen:

 

12th in WAR

14th in WHIP (1.32)

 

2nd Half:

19th WAR

24th in WHIP (1.38)

 

On paper, we are serious contenders, especially if our pen can stabilize. Now, we just need to win the damn games on the field!

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

[moonslav59]

Xander batted .219 in August....He's 3-15 in September. He's completely lost at the plate. I understand loyalty but you have to do what's best for the team.

 

Holaday is 4-28......Hanigan at .173...some ugly numbers.....

 

Bogey could probably use a day or two off.

 

I think we may have to ride Leon as much as physically possible.

 

[SoxHop]

They've actually bashed some good pitchers too.

 

 

I was thinking we couldn't hit good pitchers too. We just seem to not hit once in a while no matter what. And I think August was our May last year...

 

For a bit, I was thinking we couldn't beat good teams......... then saw a stat that we do well against good teams and not so great against the under 500's .

[southpaw777]

We're not tough......Exhibit 1....Xander Bogaerts. People keep saying that he's out of slump but I don't see it. He needs to be moved down in the line up. He's become a rally killer. I haven't even checked the stats. It just feels like he's not hitting.

 

I used the analogy of a SEC team running up the score on mid major team. That's us.

 

Hes still a 300 hitter. It all started because Farrell wore his ass down. Never gave him a day off for a long time. Hes still young and needs to sit every so often.

Leave him alone and let him keep working through it. Hes not been as consistent, but hes still hitting good enough to keep the BA over 300.

[Hitch]

I have absolutely no confidence in us in very tight games. Very rarely do I feel we will come through and nick/grind out the win. I've no idea if the numbers back that up(I'm too lazy to check), it's just the over-riding feeling I get watching us every time it's a close/one run game.

[Emp9]

Huh?

 

He may get some playing time in LF before Beni is cleared to come back, I read.

[Nick]

Hes still a 300 hitter. It all started because Farrell wore his ass down. Never gave him a day off for a long time. Hes still young and needs to sit every so often.

Leave him alone and let him keep working through it. Hes not been as consistent, but hes still hitting good enough to keep the BA over 300.

 

Xander batted .219 in August....He's 3-15 in September......Kimmi may disagree but I wouldn't bat a guy hitting .219 in second hole.

[moonslav59]

I was thinking we couldn't hit good pitchers too. We just seem to not hit once in a while no matter what. And I think August was our May last year...

 

For a bit, I was thinking we couldn't beat good teams......... then saw a stat that we do well against good teams and not so great against the under 500's .

 

Our perceptions are sometimes wrong. We've actually killed some big named pitchers this year. We seem to get shut down by unknowns more often than studs.

[oldtimer]

Xander batted .219 in August....He's 3-15 in September......Kimmi may disagree but I wouldn't bat a guy hitting .219 in second hole.

 

I would also look at the quality of his ABs. I didn't watch last night but I noticed in one highlight on BB Tonight that he hit a liner down the third base line that was caught. If on the other hand a guy is striking out repeatedly and seldom making contact, that is grounds for resting him and/or moving him in the order.

[greenwell]

I mentioned this on another thread about how we seem to outscore our opponents in many series that we end up losing or splitting, but it never seems to go in reverse...ever. When is the last time we were outscored in a series but won or even tied the series?

 

Let's look. Series in reverse order starting from yesterday:

 

Outscored the A's 27-5 but only won 2 of 3. (lost 1 gm by 1 run)

Outscored the Rays 20-14 & won 2 of 3 (lost 1 by 1 run)

We were outscored 19-15 by KC and lost 2 of 3.

Outscored the Rays 12-8 but split 2-2 (lost 2 by 1 run).

Outscored the Tigers 21-18 but split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 run).

Outscored the O's and Guardians 16-6 and won all 3 games.

Outscored AZ 31-9 and somehow won all three.

Were outscored by the Yanks 16-11 and lost 2 of 3.

Outscored the Dodgers 14-11 AND LOST 2-1!

Were outscored 11-10 by Seattle and managed a split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 and 1 by 2).

Outscored the Angels 14-12 and just split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 run).

Were outscored by Detroit 17-13 and were swept (2 by 1 tun).

Outscored the Twins 31-22 and split 2-2 (lost 1 by 1 and 1 by 2).

Outscored the Giants 15-7 and swept them 2-0.

Outscored the Yanks 11-8 and won 2 of 3.

Outscored the Rays 14-6 and swept them 3-0.

Outscored the Rangers 25-18 and won 2 of 3.

Were outscored by the Angels 30-17 BUT WON 2 of 3 (lost 21-2).

 

That was the last time.

 

Other times we were outscored but split or won this year?

 

None.

 

So basically...

 

We were outscored in a series but still won the series .one time.

 

We were outscored by the opps one time and split.

 

We outscored the opps and split 4 times.

 

We outscored the opps and lost the series 1 time.

 

 

 

 

A large part of this is that the sox are seldom outscored in a series. So another way to look at it is 1 out of the 5 times we were outscored we won the series anyway. 1 out of 13 times we outscored the opponents we lost the series.

[moonslav59]

A large part of this is that the sox are seldom outscored in a series. So another way to look at it is 1 out of the 5 times we were outscored we won the series anyway. 1 out of 13 times we outscored the opponents we lost the series.

 

No, we have only won one series all year where we were outscored and won. We have been outscored way more than 5 times.

 

Compare the ratios, if you want to get a truer sense.

Edited September 6, 2016 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

I will point out again that the sign of a good team is one that regularly blows out its opponents in wins, but doesn't get blown out in losses. We are 27-11 in blowout games (5+ runs). That is very good.

 

Our Pythagorean W-L has us at 81-56. That is also good.

[Kimmi]

Xander batted .219 in August....He's 3-15 in September......Kimmi may disagree but I wouldn't bat a guy hitting .219 in second hole.

 

I do not disagree with you, and more important than the .219 BA is the .274 OBP. Your #2 hitter should be one of the best 3 hitters on the team.

 

That said, it really does not make that big of a difference. I would move him down in the order to take some pressure off of him, but I don't know if that would do more harm to Bogaerts than it would do good. He was apparently "messed up" by being moved from shortstop to 3B, so moving him down in the lineup might mess up his confidence as well.

 

This is a case where I would leave it to the human element and Farrell's judgment as to whether they're better off letting Xander work through it where he is or moving him down.

[Bellhorn04]

I will point out again that the sign of a good team is one that regularly blows out its opponents in wins, but doesn't get blown out in losses. We are 27-11 in blowout games (5+ runs). That is very good.

 

Our Pythagorean W-L has us at 81-56. That is also good.

 

Pythagoras needs to clean up his act over the last 25 games.

[moonslav59]

I do not disagree with you, and more important than the .219 BA is the .274 OBP. Your #2 hitter should be one of the best 3 hitters on the team.

 

That said, it really does not make that big of a difference. I would move him down in the order to take some pressure off of him, but I don't know if that would do more harm to Bogaerts than it would do good. He was apparently "messed up" by being moved from shortstop to 3B, so moving him down in the lineup might mess up his confidence as well.

 

This is a case where I would leave it to the human element and Farrell's judgment as to whether they're better off letting Xander work through it where he is or moving him down.

 

I don't think it's the pressure that's bringing Bogey down. I think it's more fatigue or just a plain ole slump.

[Kimmi]

Pythagoras needs to clean up his act over the last 25 games.

 

That would be nice.

[Kimmi]

I don't think it's the pressure that's bringing Bogey down. I think it's more fatigue or just a plain ole slump.

 

I would agree that fatigue is the likely culprit for his slump, at least initially. However, the longer he struggles, the more likely he is to feel pressure and to start pressing.

[moonslav59]

I would agree that fatigue is the likely culprit for his slump, at least initially. However, the longer he struggles, the more likely he is to feel pressure and to start pressing.

 

Could be true, but pressure, in and of itself, does not necessarily bring a negative impact. Some players do better under pressure. Bogey sure did great in the post season of 2013.

[greenwell]

No, we have only won one series all year where we were outscored and won. We have been outscored way more than 5 times.

 

Compare the ratios, if you want to get a truer sense.

 

Conversely, we have outscored the other team and lost a series once. When you consider that we have outscore the other teams far more than being outscored, the ratios are in our favor.

[moonslav59]

Conversely, we have outscored the other team and lost a series once. When you consider that we have outscore the other teams far more than being outscored, the ratios are in our favor.

 

True, but we outscored the opps many times and split 4 times.

 

We were outscored by the opps many times and split just once.

[Bellhorn04]

Some of this stuff is just random ******** luck. Last night we scored 5 runs, but we also would have won if we'd only scored 2 or 3, presumably.

[illinoisredsox]

I would agree that fatigue is the likely culprit for his slump, at least initially. However, the longer he struggles, the more likely he is to feel pressure and to start pressing.

 

Very possible. Bogaerts has started (and played in) 134 of the Sox' 138 games this year. OTOH he basically did the same thing last season (played in 156 games, starting 154) so it's not like he's never played this much before; he did very well down the stretch in 2015.

 

His career splits show August has been a rough month for him:

 

April .281/.366/.387/.752

May .339/.388/.502/.889

June .261/.299/.381/.679

July .302/.337/.417/.753

Aug .240/.291/.313..604

Sep .306/.352/.459/.810

 

So hopefully he gets back closer to his historical September numbers down the stretch.