Is the actual rotation the worst in the last 10 Y?

[sk7326]

More fun with the Fangraphs dashboard on our anemic attack:

 

Sox are 29th in the league in Swing% at pitches outside the strike zone and 28th in swing% overall. So the team is not hacking and the batting eye is still pretty good.

Sox are 5th in the league in Contact% and 2nd in Contact% on pitches in the strike zone

 

The approach has been fine, they aren't being overwhelmed by stuff, they have not been indiscriminately hacking - yet the results have not been there. The Red Sox were middle in the pack in these areas a year ago - and struck out a lot more.

 

The weakness of the offense has really been just batted balls finding fielders - it is rather amazing.

[SoxHop]

More fun with the Fangraphs dashboard on our anemic attack:

 

Sox are 29th in the league in Swing% at pitches outside the strike zone and 28th in swing% overall. So the team is not hacking and the batting eye is still pretty good.

Sox are 5th in the league in Contact% and 2nd in Contact% on pitches in the strike zone

 

The approach has been fine, they aren't being overwhelmed by stuff, they have not been indiscriminately hacking - yet the results have not been there. The Red Sox were middle in the pack in these areas a year ago - and struck out a lot more.

 

The weakness of the offense has really been just batted balls finding fielders - it is rather amazing.

 

That is freakin nutz.....

 

So, pop ups, weak ground balls, hitting into the shift, and bad luck are all possible culprits.

[SoxHop]

Just to show this all together.

 

The Sox are 29th in strikeout rate ... the 2nd best team in the majors at not striking out

The Sox are 4th in walk rate ... the 4th best team in the bigs at drawing walks

The Sox are 30th in BABIP at .259 ... to give you an idea of how weird it is, 29th place (Astros) is .269. The Astros are closer to 23rd place than they are to the Sox.

The Sox are 29th in the league in Swing% at pitches outside the strike zone and 28th in swing% overall. So the team is not hacking and the batting eye is still pretty good.

The Sox are 5th in the league in Contact% and 2nd in Contact% on pitches in the strike zone

[Elktonnick]

Just to show this all together.

 

The Sox are 29th in strikeout rate ... the 2nd best team in the majors at not striking out

The Sox are 4th in walk rate ... the 4th best team in the bigs at drawing walks

The Sox are 30th in BABIP at .259 ... to give you an idea of how weird it is, 29th place (Astros) is .269. The Astros are closer to 23rd place than they are to the Sox.

The Sox are 29th in the league in Swing% at pitches outside the strike zone and 28th in swing% overall. So the team is not hacking and the batting eye is still pretty good.

The Sox are 5th in the league in Contact% and 2nd in Contact% on pitches in the strike zone

 

I was wrong when I posted that they were striking out at an increasing rate (it only seemed that way of late) It is clear that the shift has probably affected the club greatly. Although last night they seemed to hit an inordinate amount of weak ground balls.

[Behindenemylines]

Angels where struggling to score runs until last night. It is pretty hard to know what you are going to get from these guys on a night to night basis. Starting pitching needs to improve or the Sox will quickly sink to the bottom of a very weak division.

[Kimmi]

Angels where struggling to score runs until last night. It is pretty hard to know what you are going to get from these guys on a night to night basis. Starting pitching needs to improve or the Sox will quickly sink to the bottom of a very weak division.

 

The starting pitching had improved, up until last night. They are what they are - a mediocre staff. They are going to have their clunkers. IMO, the offense has to improve more than the pitching does.

[a700hitter]

The starting pitching had improved, up until last night. They are what they are - a mediocre staff. They are going to have their clunkers. IMO, the offense has to improve more than the pitching does.

 

14th in the AL and 27th in MLB in ERA is not mediocre.

[Kimmi]

14th in the AL and 27th in MLB in ERA is not mediocre.

 

They are pitching better this month than they pitched in April, 11th in the AL, and 20th in the MLB, and even better than that in the last 2 weeks or so.

 

Even you agreed that they would show some improvement over how they started.

[a700hitter]

They are pitching better this month than they pitched in April, 11th in the AL, and 20th in the MLB, and even better than that in the last 2 weeks or so.

 

Even you agreed that they would show some improvement over how they started.

 

That still stinks-- not even in the middle of the pack this month after a good stretch of pitching.

[Kimmi]

That still stinks-- not even in the middle of the pack this month after a good stretch of pitching.

 

At least they are trending in the right direction.

[a700hitter]

At least they are trending in the right direction.

 

Lol! When you are at the bottom of the pack, there is only one direction to trend.

[Kimmi]

Lol! When you are at the bottom of the pack, there is only one direction to trend.

 

The point stands that they are a mediocre staff.

 

Their current stats don't show that because they started off so poorly.

 

Why is it so hard for you to be remotely optimistic about your team?

[a700hitter]

The point stands that they are a mediocre staff.

 

Their current stats don't show that because they started off so poorly.

 

Why is it so hard for you to be remotely optimistic about your team?

 

I am optimistic that improvement will come in the form of reinforcements from Pawtucket or possibly a trade. We have already replaced Masterson with Wright who is throwing a good game tonight. I am not optinimistic about Miley or Kelly and Buch is also a long shot at finding consistency. The five that we broke camp with were mediocre at best but they have turned out to stink.

[sk7326]

I am optimistic that improvement will come in the form of reinforcements from Pawtucket or possibly a trade. We have already replaced Masterson with Wright who is throwing a good game tonight. I am not optinimistic about Miley or Kelly and Buch is also a long shot at finding consistency. The five that we broke camp with were mediocre at best but they have turned out to stink.

 

The numbers have not been kind to the rotation - although all of them have pitched better than the results. Miley has not inspired confidence, I agree. Buchholz though, as maddening as he is given his stuff, has actually pitched largely decently. It is still reasonable to think the rotation can deliver something more like a 4.xx ERA than a 5.xx. If the offense does not perk up considerably though, it is a moot point.

 

The offense - it is hard to watch without thinking that this is something that one good weekend could fix.

[Kimmi]

The numbers have not been kind to the rotation - although all of them have pitched better than the results. Miley has not inspired confidence, I agree. Buchholz though, as maddening as he is given his stuff, has actually pitched largely decently. It is still reasonable to think the rotation can deliver something more like a 4.xx ERA than a 5.xx. If the offense does not perk up considerably though, it is a moot point.

 

The offense - it is hard to watch without thinking that this is something that one good weekend could fix.

 

If the team just plays to their ability, we should be fine, at least until midseason reinforcements can be obtained. We don't need our players to have career years or even to exceed expectations. Just play to their projected ability, which they haven't done so far.

[a700hitter]

The numbers have not been kind to the rotation - although all of them have pitched better than the results. Miley has not inspired confidence, I agree. Buchholz though, as maddening as he is given his stuff, has actually pitched largely decently. It is still reasonable to think the rotation can deliver something more like a 4.xx ERA than a 5.xx. If the offense does not perk up considerably though, it is a moot point.

 

The offense - it is hard to watch without thinking that this is something that one good weekend could fix.

In a post steroid era, a 4+ ERA just doesn't cut it.

 

Edit: The upside (4+ ERA) that you are looking for will not be enough to compete. Staying at a 5+ ERA would be catastrophic -- and no expects it to stay over 5.

Edited May 24, 2015 by a700hitter

[Kimmi]

In a post steroid era, a 4+ ERA just doesn't cut it.

 

Edit: The upside (4+ ERA) that you are looking for will not be enough to compete. Staying at a 5+ ERA would be catastrophic -- and no expects it to stay over 5.

 

The team has remained in the hunt with the 5+ ERA and the offense doing practically nothing. If the offense performs like it should, I think an ERA in the lower to mid 4 range would be enough to compete. I would then fully expect the FO to obtain another starter before the deadline.

[Thunder]

I found myself thinking about this exact scenario while waiting in line for food today. They were talking about it last night on the FOX broadcast, especially with Hamels. I thought about who Cherington would give up for Hamels. Cecchini? Brentz? Both are guys who don't seem to have a spot in the bigs, with Sandoval/Holt, and Castillo/JBJ/Mookie in their places, respectively. It seems possible. I don't really want Hamels in particular, but at least it seems like we have a vareity of things to offer.

[Northern Star]

I feel like we beat certain subjects to death here, one is the quality of the team. It's pointless for me to rehash my opinion, I'll only get the usual rebuffs and around and around we go. Regardless of the potential, or lack of, the roster as it was put together, we are where we are.

[Northern Star]

In fact, the subjects are killed, cremated, and then the ashes are beaten with a baseball bat.

[a700hitter]

The team has remained in the hunt with the 5+ ERA and the offense doing practically nothing. If the offense performs like it should, I think an ERA in the lower to mid 4 range would be enough to compete. I would then fully expect the FO to obtain another starter before the deadline.

Stats over recent years do not support this. If you want to be seriously in the hunt for the post season, you had better come in with an ERA under 4.

[User Name]

What stats? Don't just pull things out of thin air.

[cp176]

I found myself thinking about this exact scenario while waiting in line for food today. They were talking about it last night on the FOX broadcast, especially with Hamels. I thought about who Cherington would give up for Hamels. Cecchini? Brentz? Both are guys who don't seem to have a spot in the bigs, with Sandoval/Holt, and Castillo/JBJ/Mookie in their places, respectively. It seems possible. I don't really want Hamels in particular, but at least it seems like we have a vareity of things to offer.

 

 

If that trade was a possibility, I think that it would have already been done Thunder. I like Brentz and Cecchini but i wouldn't like them that much.

[iortiz]

Stats over recent years do not support this. If you want to be seriously in the hunt for the post season, you had better come in with an ERA under 4.

 

This pitching staff is not a playoff squad by any means.

[sk7326]

ERA of 4 is about league median. Obviously a better ERA than that helps, but it's not a disqualifier (the Tigers for one last year qualified with a 4.01 ERA).

[iortiz]

Our problem these days is bigger than just pitching. In terms of UZR and wRC this team is pathetic as well. Ben's job is in jeopardy if this keeps this way by the end of the season.

[mvp 78]

Happy Memorial Day! RIP 2015 Red Sox!

[a700hitter]

ERA of 4 is about league median. Obviously a better ERA than that helps, but it's not a disqualifier (the Tigers for one last year qualified with a 4.01 ERA).

Yep, the tigers were the one team in the last few years with a 4 ERA (4.01) that made the playoffs, but they also had a couple of big hammers that we didn't have -- Scherzer and Price (after the trading deadline). Also, their second best hitter last year was Miggy as VMart absolutely tore it up last year. Other than the 2014 Tigers, playoff teams in recent years have had ERAs under 4. An ERA over 4, certainly an ERA around 4.5, will not keep the 2015 Red Sox competitive.

[iortiz]

Today Kelly posted the worst start from a starter thus far. This is beyond lucky. He has to go to the pen or something. He has to be the second head sacrificed, we do not need to wait until June to figure out, he is killing this team.

[Bellhorn04]

This staff might set some sort of record for early showers.