2014 Offseason Thread

[Palodios]

I don't think last year's problem was pervasive underperformance. There was underperformance, notably from Pedroia and Napoli. The bigger problem was that we rolled out a team that was not very talented. Bradley and Middlebrooks were clearly overrated prospects. We had garbage in our OF as a whole, partly due to Victorino missing almost the entire season. Our catching corps was bad too. The difference this year will be the upgrades through acquisitions of Hanley and Panda and Castillo more so than it will be a reurn to norms by the underperformers. I expect that Napoli will return to his norms, but there seems to be a concern that last season's performance by Pedroia may be his new norm.

 

Napoli, Pedroia, Victorino, Craig, Buch, Bogaerts, Masterson, Koji, Mujica, and Miley all had forgettable seasons in 2014. Maybe that is the new norm for some, but hopefully not all.

[mvp 78]

On Hanley in LF:

 

"It was the day Hanley Ramirez officially became an outfielder for the Red Sox.

 

"He was awesome," Red Sox first base and outfield coach Arnie Beyeler said by phone. "He was very receptive. He was upbeat and had that great smile on his face. He was great, and I was very impressed by what we did today and what I see. He's a good athlete. He's a big, strong guy. To play shortstop in the big leagues he had to be somewhat athletic, so I'm excited about that. I was very impressed by what I saw. He had good footwork. He caught every ball today. He didn't have any problems with anything we did."

 

http://weei.com//sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2015/02/12/hanley-ramirez-kicks-new-life-red-sox-left-fi

[sk7326]

Porcello, Varvaro, and Holt may regress. But yeah, not many overachievers last year.

 

And even so - Porcello is only 26. Nothing about his fundamentals were particularly hokey (you know BABIP, K Rate, FIP etc) and at his age you could at least chock it up to genuine improvement too. Same with Holt although his performance is a bit more of a career outlier. (high BABIP, but he has a high BABIP careerwise, granted not a ton of PAs)

[a700hitter]

Napoli, Pedroia, Victorino, Craig, Buch, Bogaerts, Masterson, Koji, Mujica, and Miley all had forgettable seasons in 2014. Maybe that is the new norm for some, but hopefully not all.

Vic didn't play. I wouldn't say that he underperformed. Maybe he can return to good health. That would be great, but maybe he is just broken down. Bogaerts didn't have an off-year. He was a rookie, but he has room to grow. Miley and Masterson weren't even on the team in 2014 so their regression didn't contribute to our last place finish. Craig was barey on the team.

[a700hitter]

I am looking at the Red Sox on several betting sites:

 

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=betting%20on%20world%20series%20winners

 

#5, #1, #3, tied for #3, #3, #2. There seems to be a strong consensus among the people who make money off this kind of thing that the Red Sox will be a potential playoff team. Writers can eyeball things, but they make their money off clicks, and strong opinions, not correctness.

I fully expect that his conversion to the OF will go smoother than Youk's conversion to the OF.

[Palodios]

Vic didn't play. I wouldn't say that he underperformed. Maybe he can return to good health. That would be great, but maybe he is just broken down. Bogaerts didn't have an off-year. He was a rookie, but he has room to grow. Miley and Masterson weren't even on the team in 2014 so their regression didn't contribute to our last place finish. Craig was barey on the team.

 

The original point was this year's team. There are a lot of players who could easily be better and few who could be worse.

[sk7326]

The conversion to LF will be fine for Ramirez - the orientation to the wall will be tricky, but that is the case regardless. Carl Crawford was by all accounts the best defensive LF in the game and he was ho-ho-horrendous in LF at Fenway. Of course, Jim Rice from days of yore was the reverse.

 

The challenge with LF for Ramirez will not be playing it competently - but whether he it is successful in keeping wear off of him. His bat will play at the more offensively demanding position - no doubt. But will they be able to help him get 600 PAs out of it. I think the outfield glut helps in this pursuit - Ramirez can and will (I'd hope) spot Papi against specific lefties I'd think (just to optimize the pieces they have).

[sk7326]

Napoli, Pedroia, Victorino, Craig, Buch, Bogaerts, Masterson, Koji, Mujica, and Miley all had forgettable seasons in 2014. Maybe that is the new norm for some, but hopefully not all.

 

Napoli also only belongs in the list for health reasons. Statistically he was basically the exact player he always was. He even got on base more. Napoli will always look worse than he is because of the particular "feast or famine" nature of his production.

[a700hitter]

The original point was this year's team. There are a lot of players who could easily be better and few who could be worse.

I think we are saying the same thing. Neither of us expects a last place 90+ loss team again, because we don't expect to flat out suck like 2014.

[a700hitter]

The conversion to LF will be fine for Ramirez - the orientation to the wall will be tricky, but that is the case regardless. Carl Crawford was by all accounts the best defensive LF in the game and he was ho-ho-horrendous in LF at Fenway. Of course, Jim Rice from days of yore was the reverse.

 

The challenge with LF for Ramirez will not be playing it competently - but whether he it is successful in keeping wear off of him. His bat will play at the more offensively demanding position - no doubt. But will they be able to help him get 600 PAs out of it. I think the outfield glut helps in this pursuit - Ramirez can and will (I'd hope) spot Papi against specific lefties I'd think (just to optimize the pieces they have).

Cespedes had no clue fielding balls off the monster.

[Spudboy]

Cespedes had no clue fielding balls off the monster.

 

He sucked pond water. Now that he has been jettisoned, many more people are saying this. The guy had a powerful arm and made some spectacular throws.

 

Woopie. I see a pattern in these touted Cuban players. They lack finished skills. Bye bye Viciado.

[Palodios]

I think we are saying the same thing. Neither of us expects a last place 90+ loss team again, because we don't expect to flat out suck like 2014.

 

See? We can agree about baseball things.

[Palodios]

The Blue Monster (Why hasn't anyone coined this yet? It seems perfect) was a much needed investment for the Red Sox's spring training facility. I don't know why it took so long for them to come up with this.

[iortiz]

I am looking at the Red Sox on several betting sites:

 

https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=betting%20on%20world%20series%20winners

 

#5, #1, #3, tied for #3, #3, #2. There seems to be a strong consensus among the people who make money off this kind of thing that the Red Sox will be a potential playoff team. Writers can eyeball things, but they make their money off clicks, and strong opinions, not correctness.

Well, 3 months ago we were at No1 at bet365. A couple of weeks ago, I checked at bet365.com again and the Sox were at No.6. Regardless the position which is a long shot for any team I find out interesting the analysis from those 2 articles. IMO we are behind WSN, LAD, STL, DET, LAA and at same level of any ALE team and probably a couple of teams more .

[mvp 78]

They really need to make a move for Lee. I'd through Ball in the deal.

Totally. You mean "throw" though.

[User Name]

Totally. You mean "throw" though.

 

I see what you did there.

[mvp 78]

For Bell:

 

@PeteAbe: Wade Miley one of the newcomers to #RedSox camp. So the whole rotation is here.

 

Castillo is taking BP

[a700hitter]

He sucked pond water. Now that he has been jettisoned, many more people are saying this. The guy had a powerful arm and made some spectacular throws.

 

Woopie. I see a pattern in these touted Cuban players. They lack finished skills. Bye bye Viciado.

He had problems with balls of the wall and balls in the air. He was always stumbling around. He played every ball like it was a live hand grenade or a hot potato.

[Palodios]

Well, 3 months ago we were at No1 at bet365. A couple of weeks ago, I checked at bet365.com again and the Sox were at No.6. Regardless the position which is a long shot for any team I find out interesting the analysis from those 2 articles. IMO we are behind WSN, LAD, STL, DET, LAA and at same level of any ALE team and probably a couple of teams more .

 

You're right about 365 -- I am looking at a betting aggregator, and it seems like the Red Sox are consistently in 5th or 6th place. That being said, the Jays are 11th, the Yankees are 14th, the O's 15th, and the Rays 25th.

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/world-series/winner

 

If I wanted an opinion from an outside source, I would trust 20 different betting sites who make money off their success before I trust 2 talking heads who only make money off opinions.

[Palodios]

Would someone like to make the spring training thread?

[cp176]

I don't think last year's problem was pervasive underperformance. There was underperformance, notably from Pedroia and Napoli. The bigger problem was that we rolled out a team that was not very talented. Bradley and Middlebrooks were clearly overrated prospects. We had garbage in our OF as a whole, partly due to Victorino missing almost the entire season. Our catching corps was bad too. The difference this year will be the upgrades through acquisitions of Hanley and Panda and Castillo more so than it will be a reurn to norms by the underperformers. I expect that Napoli will return to his norms, but there seems to be a concern that last season's performance by Pedroia may be his new norm. I hope not, because a high performing Pedroia drives this team. Xander was a rookie, so he didn't regress. We don't know what he is yet, but the good news is he has room to develop. I think our offense will be much better this season, but it will not be because of a reversal of team-wide regression in 2014.

 

If (and it appears that he is) Victorino is healthy, my bet is on Mookie to be in cf on opening day and not Cespedes. Things might change. He may be a lot better than I think he will be. We don't know. What we do know is that a healthy Victorino is about as good as you can get in right field. Ramirez will be in left. He may or he may not be an upgrade in the field. Once again we don't know. Like to think so but who knows. I hope that he stays healthy while playing the field. Looks to me like a future dh candidate. Betts had a great debut and projects high. I realize that we all love Brock Holt but if (when?) Pedroia gets hurt I hope that Betts gets moved to the position that he should be in.

[User Name]

Cespedes is a Tiger now. If you're referring to Castillo then i agree.

[cp176]

Cespedes is a Tiger now. If you're referring to Castillo then i agree.

 

Thank you - that is what I meant. I ought to take a break. just starting to rattle away. I am excited to see it begin though. I was also pleased to hear what you had to say about Ortiz. I am curious to know if his feet have healed completely. Not much fun as an athlete to have that type of injury!

[cp176]

Thank you - that is what I meant. I ought to take a break. just starting to rattle away. I am excited to see it begin though. I was also pleased to hear what you had to say about Ortiz. I am curious to know if his feet have healed completely. Not much fun as an athlete to have that type of injury!

 

I feel like an idiot for getting those two mixed up.

[Bellhorn04]

I feel like an idiot for getting those two mixed up.

 

Don't.

[iortiz]

You're right about 365 -- I am looking at a betting aggregator, and it seems like the Red Sox are consistently in 5th or 6th place. That being said, the Jays are 11th, the Yankees are 14th, the O's 15th, and the Rays 25th.

 

http://www.oddschecker.com/baseball/mlb/world-series/winner

 

If I wanted an opinion from an outside source, I would trust 20 different betting sites who make money off their success before I trust 2 talking heads who only make money off opinions.

 

Well, my approach would be different. I would make my own analisys (whatever that means for anyone) including those opinions and betting information and then trying to get the best line, although I do not expect those change drastically from one place to other. I think I concur at some extent with the betting sites and these articles. I see our team somewhere between 6-10.

[Palodios]

Well, my approach would be different. I would make my own analisys (whatever that means for anyone) including those opinions and betting information and then trying to get the best line, although I do not expect those change drastically from one place to other. I think I concur at some extent with the betting sites and these articles. I see our team somewhere between 6-10.

 

Despite all the arguing that happens on Talksox, I would guess that 90% of us believe the Red Sox fall into that range.

[seabeachfred]

Porcello, Varvaro, and Holt may regress. But yeah, not many overachievers last year.

 

Boy I hope not. We are going to depend very heavily on Porcello and he just might to turn out to be our "ace". He's still a young pitcher with some experience and is entering his prime. No way do I think we can prosper without him making as solid contribution. As for Holt, something tells me we are going to depend on him a lot more than some of the rest of you are. Varvaro? I take the fifth.

[seabeachfred]

I feel like an idiot for getting those two mixed up.

 

Come on CP---hell we all goof up here once in awhile. Hell, I couldn't even remember an outfielder we had three years ago. You're fine.

[Kimmi]

I feel like an idiot for getting those two mixed up.

 

 

We've all made similar mistakes. No need to feel like an idiot.

 

A couple months ago I was making a post about Kuroda, or so I thought, but I called him Matsui. LOL I have no idea where Matsui's name came from.