2014 Offseason Thread

[Ogden]

I always liked Dempster even though he was not exactly lights out.

 

I am very interested in seeing how Kelly develops. He has upside.

 

Unlike Clay Doltholtz who can exhibit mind bending "stuff", Kelly appears to have a brain and a heart.

Two attributes laptop will never have.

 

 

LOL

http://emojipedia.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/107-thumbs-up-sign.png

[Kimmi]

The Sox have extended Farrell through 2017, with an option for 2018.

 

Ben really likes this guy.

 

Farrell is no Francona, but I like him.

[a700hitter]

The Sox have extended Farrell through 2017, with an option for 2018.

 

Ben really likes this guy.

 

Farrell is no Francona, but I like him.

He needs to keep Farrell in place to be the fall guy.

[Kimmi]

He needs to keep Farrell in place to be the fall guy.

 

 

LOL, good one. Although you know I disagree that there will be a need for a fall guy.

[a700hitter]

LOL, good one. Although you know I disagree that there will be a need for a fall guy.

If Buch and Masterson replicate their 2014 seasons, things could go south very fast. Farrell has a track record of several last place finishes-- the perfect fall guy.

[Kimmi]

If Buch and Masterson replicate their 2014 seasons, things could go south very fast. Farrell has a track record of several last place finishes-- the perfect fall guy.

 

 

Or maybe they think Farrell is the guy who can get Masterson, Porcello, Miley, and Kelly to reach their potential.

 

Buccholz is just an enigma. I almost think that he should not be allowed to make any decisions on the mound when there are runners on base. Don't let him think, just do what the catcher calls. IIRC, the Sox did this for a while with not letting him throw to first unless it was called from the dugout, and it seemed to help.

[a700hitter]

Or maybe they think Farrell is the guy who can get Masterson, Porcello, Miley, and Kelly to reach their potential.

I am sure that is what they are thinking. I was tongue in cheek when I said that he would be the fall guy, but make no mistake, if they do collapse, the fingers will be pointed at Farrell.

[jacksonianmarch]

I still don't see the optimism in the rotation.

 

I get the Porcello love, as I think he could be your best pitcher, but that isn't saying much. He's probably not the low 3 ERA guy he was last yr, but he has proven to give innings and be effective. That being said, he has a sieve at SS and he is a ground ball pitcher, so that could be an issue.

 

Right now, you are relying on Clay Buchholz to be reliable for 20% of your team starts. The guy hasn't started 30 games in a season, ever. He made 28 last yr. 29 in 2012. 28 again in 2010. He also seems to go on a every other year pattern of significant injury. This yr looks like an off season. He has also lost 2.5 mph off his best fastball in terms of average and doesn't use it as much. I get that he isn't really a mid 5's ERA guy, but a guy who doesn't take the mound who projects as a 4ERA guy shouldn't be relied upon. And I know you guys say he's your #4, but to be honest with you, you have a lot of them

 

Wade Miley gives up homers in droves and moves to Fenway as a lefty. Plus, his ERA has risen every season as has the walk rate and HR rate. Not a good combination, especially when moving to the AL East in Fenway.

 

Joe Kelly is always hurt and is of limited value in the rotation.

 

Justin Masterson was the worst pitcher in the AL last yr (hard charging competition from Clay Buchholz not withstanding), but his stats are even more alarming. His top FB velo for a season was 92.7. In 2013, when he had a very good season, he was 1mph below that at 91.6. Last yr, he was nearly 3mph down from that at 88.9mph. If his velo stays down, he's done.

 

I know everyone is looking past this with the lineup projected to be good, but I don't think you guys remember the days without a horse at the front of the rotation. I know the beer and chicken sox had bad seasons from Beckett and Lester, but there were more issues in that lockerroom and on that team to contribute to that. The last time the sox truly didn't have a solid front of their rotation was a long time ago. 2005 was an interesting season because Pedro was gone and Schill was in the pen, but you did have a solid season from a rather reliable Wake and Wells was pretty good. Since then, though, you've had top of the rotation talent. Take a look...

 

2006- Schilling, Beckett

2007- Schilling, Beckett

and from 2008 to 2014 you had Lester fronting the rotation with an assortment of sidekicks (Beckett, DiceK, Lackey, etc).

 

This is the first season since 2005 that you don't really have that front level ace and the first year since prior to Pedro being in town that your rotation lacks depth, name recognition or an ace. This is going to be a completely different feel for you guys

[User Name]

Chart please.

[Spudboy]

^ This.

[Kimmi]

Jacko, the optimism is not necessarily with the rotation itself, per se, but with the overall team. You can't look at the rotation in a vacuum. This rotation is not going to set the world on fire and it leaves a lot of people thinking "meh". However, when you consider several other factors, there is reason to be optimistic that it will be good enough to keep the team in contention, at least until the Sox can add another starter.

 

As far as optimism for the rotation itself, there are reasons to be hopeful that these guys can show improvement this year. Buccholz is a flip of the coin, but when he's good, he's very good.

[iortiz]

I still don't see the optimism in the rotation.

 

I get the Porcello love, as I think he could be your best pitcher, but that isn't saying much. He's probably not the low 3 ERA guy he was last yr, but he has proven to give innings and be effective. That being said, he has a sieve at SS and he is a ground ball pitcher, so that could be an issue.

 

Right now, you are relying on Clay Buchholz to be reliable for 20% of your team starts. The guy hasn't started 30 games in a season, ever. He made 28 last yr. 29 in 2012. 28 again in 2010. He also seems to go on a every other year pattern of significant injury. This yr looks like an off season. He has also lost 2.5 mph off his best fastball in terms of average and doesn't use it as much. I get that he isn't really a mid 5's ERA guy, but a guy who doesn't take the mound who projects as a 4ERA guy shouldn't be relied upon. And I know you guys say he's your #4, but to be honest with you, you have a lot of them

 

Wade Miley gives up homers in droves and moves to Fenway as a lefty. Plus, his ERA has risen every season as has the walk rate and HR rate. Not a good combination, especially when moving to the AL East in Fenway.

 

Joe Kelly is always hurt and is of limited value in the rotation.

 

Justin Masterson was the worst pitcher in the AL last yr (hard charging competition from Clay Buchholz not withstanding), but his stats are even more alarming. His top FB velo for a season was 92.7. In 2013, when he had a very good season, he was 1mph below that at 91.6. Last yr, he was nearly 3mph down from that at 88.9mph. If his velo stays down, he's done.

 

I know everyone is looking past this with the lineup projected to be good, but I don't think you guys remember the days without a horse at the front of the rotation. I know the beer and chicken sox had bad seasons from Beckett and Lester, but there were more issues in that lockerroom and on that team to contribute to that. The last time the sox truly didn't have a solid front of their rotation was a long time ago. 2005 was an interesting season because Pedro was gone and Schill was in the pen, but you did have a solid season from a rather reliable Wake and Wells was pretty good. Since then, though, you've had top of the rotation talent. Take a look...

 

2006- Schilling, Beckett

2007- Schilling, Beckett

and from 2008 to 2014 you had Lester fronting the rotation with an assortment of sidekicks (Beckett, DiceK, Lackey, etc).

 

This is the first season since 2005 that you don't really have that front level ace and the first year since prior to Pedro being in town that your rotation lacks depth, name recognition or an ace. This is going to be a completely different feel for you guys

Well, Let's see if the experiment works out, if this turns into a nightmare as you and some people are suggesting, they probably will grab a couple of solid pitchers in 2016 and realize that they can't go on the cheap again at pitching.

[User Name]

For the millionth time, it's not about the amount of money spent. More expensive doesn't mean better.

[iortiz]

Nobody said that, but for millionth time, this is very unbalanced on paper... But again, let's see how this ends up.

[cp176]

For the millionth time, it's not about the amount of money spent. More expensive doesn't mean better.

 

That's for sure. Now let's see - How much money did they spend this off season? It is for sure how the money is spent that makes the difference. I hope that it all works out.

[User Name]

That's for sure. Now let's see - How much money did they spend this off season? It is for sure how the money is spent that makes the difference. I hope that it all works out.

 

On point. Some of the best rotations in the game are some of the cheapest. Look at Oakland.

[iortiz]

Problem is that we have not shown the ability to build success rotations on the cheap like they do every year nor we do not have a farm which can provide solid pitchers like TB for ex.. A couple of solid arms, a couple of inning eaters and a couple prospects would have been my approach, but going like this is pretty risky IMO.

[iortiz]

Red Sox to sign Moncada

[iortiz]

Probably they are planning to trade for a SP after this, if so wonder what is the package...

[sk7326]

Probably they are planning to trade for a SP after this, if so wonder what is the package...

 

It will be interesting - Moncada from what I have read yes is a SS, but given his size and age, almost no chance of staying there. But the bat could/should still be plenty good for RF.

[RedSoxNC84]

Ben is definitely up to something, might see one last big move in the form of a trade before the season starts.

[seabeachfred]

Ben is definitely up to something, might see one last big move in the form of a trade before the season starts.

 

Now use some of the surplus to get us some needed pitching since we cannot develop our own to save our sorry asses. However, I still want to hold on to Blake and Mookie.

[Ogden]

Moncada is 19. Don't expect moves to be made based on his potential 3 years from now before he has swung at a pitch or anoint him the next Trout yet.

[seabeachfred]

Moncada is 19. Don't expect moves to be made based on his potential 3 years from now before he has swung at a pitch or anoint him the next Trout yet.

 

It would now seem that we are set up for a trade for a top notch pitcher but I'm not going to put money on it. One thing we should have all learned by now is that you never know what Cherington has up his sleeve. Still I would like to get that No. 1 pitcher, and I'm hearing from scouts and pundits that Moncada might actually be ready this season. That is astounding. Could he actually be another Mike Trout?

[sk7326]

It would now seem that we are set up for a trade for a top notch pitcher but I'm not going to put money on it. One thing we should have all learned by now is that you never know what Cherington has up his sleeve. Still I would like to get that No. 1 pitcher, and I'm hearing from scouts and pundits that Moncada might actually be ready this season. That is astounding. Could he actually be another Mike Trout?

 

Nothing is impossible - but if he is ready for Portland by the end of the year, this is an unqualified success.

[Bellhorn04]

MLBTR has some chatter about the Sox being interested in Lee and the Phillies being interested in Victorino.

[User Name]

Oh for the love of God, yes.

[Kimmi]

MLBTR has some chatter about the Sox being interested in Lee and the Phillies being interested in Victorino.

 

I would be sad to see Victorino go, but that deal could make sense, depending on the specific terms of the deal. Lee would be a risk, but he would only be a one year risk.

[sk7326]

MLBTR has some chatter about the Sox being interested in Lee and the Phillies being interested in Victorino.

 

That would make sense. That said, while the package for Lee should not be as steep as one for Hamels (older, less control) Philadelphia will want to be able to show results for the deal - and the Red Sox have a genuine surplus of assets enough to justify a mild overpay.

 

I'd think Lee for Victorino, some close to the bigs prospect (Johnson, Barnes, Cecchini flavor) and some lower level lottery ticket (Ball, one of the 2014 draftees though he'd be a PTBNL if a deal happened now) would be reasonable. Now Vasquez might be part of the former - but that is a decision the front office has to make. Could something more be added (Rodriguez, Margot, Devers) - maybe, if some of the financial burden is alleviated, but I'd be reluctant in any other circumstance.

[User Name]

Since the Sox are blowing past the LT this season either ways, absorbing the entirety of Lee's deal in order to lessen the prospect burden makes sense.