2014 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

Brandon Beachy's electric, but he's as much of an injury risk as Billingsley. I'd like to see one, or both of them, sign as depth.

 

Bills would be nice as it would bring me fond memories of posting on Dodgerblues.

 

\delino over pedro

[mvp 78]

You are right.....up to a point RSFFL, but it may go deeper than that and it could get very very personal because I have a long memory and I don't forget very easily. Seems one of my "so-called" opponents posted on a board that gave me some s*** a few years back before it was run off the internet. It might be that one of the biggest pricks on that board might be posting here. I hope not!!!!!!!! But the fact remains some real s*** about me was spread around and you were naïve enough to buy into that, remember? Let me refresh your memory. Paraphrasing you......NO WAY IS SEA BEACH FRED A RED SOX FAN. I WOULDN'T BELIEVE THAT FOR A SECOND.....Remember you saying that ? I sure as hell remember. Fell a little ridiculous you even said that? Well that's what could happen when a few a-holes send out lies and crap about a poster. I hope to get this cleared up but I'm going to want some answers from mvp and fast.

Fred, your memory must be failing you. We've talked about this before. I had no idea who you were and didn't care. I first found out about this site through the dumb invasion where everyone acted like jackasses. I wasn't a heavy poster over there and only posted during Dodgers games as it was a pain in the ass to get to that Sox bar in Santa Monica to watch very many games. You have no beef with me in regards to that board as we never interacted.

[seabeachfred]

Fred, your memory must be failing you. We've talked about this before. I had no idea who you were and didn't care. I first found out about this site through the dumb invasion where everyone acted like jackasses. I wasn't a heavy poster over there and only posted during Dodgers games as it was a pain in the ass to get to that Sox bar in Santa Monica to watch very many games. You have no beef with me in regards to that board as we never interacted.

 

That's why I wish we could have a ignore button on the quote section. I deleted both posts mvp. I don't want to start any s*** and don't want to make a total ass out of myself. And glad to hear that you weren't one of my foils there. As for my memory failing me, I have a great one remembering dates and events decades ago, but cannot remember what I had for dinner two or three nights past so you're probably right........we did discuss it and I had one of my more frequent senior moments. I'm not a young gun like you anymore----I might be the oldest war horse on the board. AND, I want no beef with you either. Somehow, someway, when this season is over we will be friends.

[mvp 78]

That's why I wish we could have a ignore button on the quote section. I deleted both posts mvp. I don't want to start any s*** and don't want to make a total ass out of myself. And glad to hear that you weren't one of my foils there. As for my memory failing me, I have a great one remembering dates and events decades ago, but cannot remember what I had for dinner two or three nights past so you're probably right........we did discuss it and I had one of my more frequent senior moments. I'm not a young gun like you anymore----I might be the oldest war horse on the board. AND, I want no beef with you either. Somehow, someway, when this season is over we will be friends.

 

It's not a big deal. Don't worry about it.

[Kimmi]

With his bat in decline, his defense doesn't make up for his huge contract. He's a guy being paid based on reputation rather than on field performance.

 

 

Sure his defense makes up for the decline in his offense. Pedroia was a 4.4 WAR player last season, well worth his AAV.

[iortiz]

Sure his defense makes up for the decline in his offense. Pedroia was a 4.4 WAR player last season, well worth his AAV.

Yup, his AAV worth it.

 

You sound sometimes like Emmz (a very knowledgeable poster who isn't posting anymore, hopefully she is ok), and BTW welcome.

Edited January 24, 2015 by iortiz

[Kimmi]

You sound sometimes like Emmz (a very knowledgeable poster who isn't posting anymore, hopefully she is ok), and BTW welcome.

 

 

Thank you for the welcome. I don't know Emmz, but I hope she returns. Baseball forums need more female posters, IMO. Of course, sometimes it's hard to know who is male and who is female by a poster's user name.

 

I've been posting for a while (since 2009) on other forums. I used to post with Bellhorn and Fred at Sawxheads until that forum kind of fell apart. Bellhorn is one of my favorite posters. Fred, OTOH, I almost never agree with. LOL But I have nothing personal against him.

[Kingface]

Sure his defense makes up for the decline in his offense. Pedroia was a 4.4 WAR player last season, well worth his AAV.

 

Agree 100%. What he does in the field is nothing less than amazing. A pitcher being able to trust that his defenders will make the play almost every time is NEVER a bad thing and should not be discounted. Yes his offense has been declining, but Pedey is a proud player and I look for him to shut his critics up this year and have a big season.

[Kimmi]

Agree 100%. What he does in the field is nothing less than amazing. A pitcher being able to trust that his defenders will make the play almost every time is NEVER a bad thing and should not be discounted. Yes his offense has been declining, but Pedey is a proud player and I look for him to shut his critics up this year and have a big season.

 

 

I think too many people undervalue defense. I posted elsewhere that Pedroia is one player I would never bet against. He's heard all the speculation about how he has declined offensively. Nothing motivates him more than proving his critics wrong. It's what he's done his entire baseball career.

[Bellhorn04]

A player like Pedey is one reason I like looking at WAR to see what a player really contributed in total.

[Kimmi]

A player like Pedey is one reason I like looking at WAR to see what a player really contributed in total.

 

 

WAR is an excellent descriptive stat, despite what the critics say.

 

For those who think that WAR values defense too much, I would argue that WAR has it about right, and rather its critics don't value defense enough.

[a700hitter]

Pedroia is one of those players that transcends his stats. He has what we used to mock about Jeter. He had the intangibles of leadership. Plus, he is a much better fielder than Jeter. I don't put a lot of stock in fielding metrics. I watch at least 150 Red Sox games a year. I have thousands of games under my belt. I have seen Pedroia's entire career. I don't need a stat to tell me about his range, his hands and his footwork on the DP. His offense has been down in recent years due to injuries incurred on defense, but in today's game, he is a great value even in down offensive seasons, because of the other aspects of his game and leadership.

[Bellhorn04]

To me Jeter is actually another good example of the usefulness of WAR. He took a beating in recent years for his defense but his WAR supports his total value because his offense was so much higher than an average SS's, and he was so durable etc.

[a700hitter]

To me Jeter is actually another good example of the usefulness of WAR. He took a beating in recent years for his defense but his WAR supports his total value because his offense was so much higher than an average SS's, and he was so durable etc.

And if you watched Jeter for thousands of games over his career, you already knew that without having to look up WAR. I have said it over and over. In the words of the great Vin Scully, "Statistics should be used the way a drunk uses a lamp post -- for support not illumination." It was also pretty clear that in his last season plus that Jeter's defense was hurting his team to a significant extent. He couldn't move at all after the broken ankle and his arm accuracy started to betray him as well.

[Bellhorn04]

And if you watched Jeter for thousands of games over his career, you already knew that without having to look up WAR. I have said it over and over. In the words of the great Vin Scully, "Statistics should be used the way a drunk uses a lamp post -- for support not illumination." It was also pretty clear that in his last season plus that Jeter's defense was hurting his team to a significant extent. He couldn't move at all after the broken ankle and his arm accuracy started to betray him as well.

 

WAR is more useful for me now, I guess, because I don't watch nearly as many games as I used to.

[a700hitter]

WAR is more useful for me now, I guess, because I don't watch nearly as many games as I used to.

If it is quicker, you can just ask me. Lol! That remark will get some people' s underwear tied in a knot.

[iortiz]

And if you watched Jeter for thousands of games over his career, you already knew that without having to look up WAR. I have said it over and over. In the words of the great Vin Scully, "Statistics should be used the way a drunk uses a lamp post -- for support not illumination." It was also pretty clear that in his last season plus that Jeter's defense was hurting his team to a significant extent. He couldn't move at all after the broken ankle and his arm accuracy started to betray him as well.

 

While I use a lot of stats in my betting model in order to be "objetive", in the end I consider other intangibles and subjective situations that help me support a pick.

[Kimmi]

I watch at least 150 Red Sox games a year. I have thousands of games under my belt. I have seen Pedroia's entire career. I don't need a stat to tell me about his range, his hands and his footwork on the DP.

 

 

This is the exact type of response that gets my goat up. I have no doubt that you have watched thousands of games and that you know a good defender when you see one. But regardless of how good of a talent evaluator you might be, you will never get a complete assessment without the stats.

 

For one, your eyes will lie to you. For two, it's human nature to be biased. And for three, without having watched every 2B play more or less every game, you really have no way of knowing if Pedroia is a great defender or a poor one.

[Kimmi]

In the words of the great Vin Scully, "Statistics should be used the way a drunk uses a lamp post -- for support not illumination."

 

 

In the words of a great somebody (I have no idea who), "You can sometimes tell a lie with statistics, but you can never tell the whole truth without them."

[cp176]

In the words of a great somebody (I have no idea who), "You can sometimes tell a lie with statistics, but you can never tell the whole truth without them."

 

I think that Bill James has done a great job and provided many useful tools for evaluators to use to help them make appropriate decisions. His work is filled with quality and provides much solid information. Used in combination with all of the other aspects of evaluating the game some of which are intangible you might develop a picture of success. I'm glad that he has done some helpful work for the Sox but personally if I spent too much time studying what he has written I might not enjoy the game as much as I do. I love the sounds, smells, the feel of the game that you don't get from his statistics. For some , who really know nothing about the actual game and the way it is played his work provides an avenue for them to get involved and be educated. That's a good thing. You have a point- so does 700 - equally important to me.

[Kimmi]

I think that Bill James has done a great job and provided many useful tools for evaluators to use to help them make appropriate decisions. His work is filled with quality and provides much solid information. Used in combination with all of the other aspects of evaluating the game some of which are intangible you might develop a picture of success. I'm glad that he has done some helpful work for the Sox but personally if I spent too much time studying what he has written I might not enjoy the game as much as I do. I love the sounds, smells, the feel of the game that you don't get from his statistics. For some , who really know nothing about the actual game and the way it is played his work provides an avenue for them to get involved and be educated. That's a good thing. You have a point- so does 700 - equally important to me.

 

 

I have never discounted the importance of scouting. I have never discounted the importance of watching the games and understanding the intricacies of it. I have never discounted the human element of the game. I agree, both scouting and stats are equally important. As far as I know, Bill James or any of the other stat geeks have never claimed that they can get a complete assessment of a player without the scouts.

 

What I have a problem with is those who discount stats and claim that they don't need them. As I've stated before, that's a cop out response, IMO.

 

You have one person who watches the games and studies supporting statistics. You have another person who only watches the games. Who's going to have a better assessment?

 

Since my eyes were opened to the world of sabermetrics, I enjoy the game even more than I did before.

[Kimmi]

The problem that a lot of people have with sabermetrics is that they are disproving what traditionalists have accepted as true for dozens of years. It's hard to be told that something you've believed for a long time is simply not true.

[Northern Star]

The problem that a lot of people have with sabermetrics is that they are disproving what traditionalists have accepted as true for dozens of years. It's hard to be told that something you've believed for a long time is simply not true.

 

What, like the Bible?

[cp176]

I have never discounted the importance of scouting. I have never discounted the importance of watching the games and understanding the intricacies of it. I have never discounted the human element of the game. I agree, both scouting and stats are equally important. As far as I know, Bill James or any of the other stat geeks have never claimed that they can get a complete assessment of a player without the scouts.

 

What I have a problem with is those who discount stats and claim that they don't need them. As I've stated before, that's a cop out response, IMO.

 

You have one person who watches the games and studies supporting statistics. You have another person who only watches the games. Who's going to have a better assessment?

 

Since my eyes were opened to the world of sabermetrics, I enjoy the game even more than I did before.

 

I would never question that you enjoy all aspects of the game. I hope that from my posts, you did not get that impression . I am fairly familiar with Bill James and his study of sabermetrics. I certainly don't think that it is an either or situation. I think that a fairer question might be who has the better assessment - the person who relies solely on statistical analysis or the person who has been on the field and has lived the game. I don't think that there is right answer to that question. The best baseball people i know, believe in both used together. On this board, the people whose opinions I value the most such as yours, 700"s, Freds and numerous others certainly see the value in both.

[a700hitter]

This is the exact type of response that gets my goat up. I have no doubt that you have watched thousands of games and that you know a good defender when you see one. But regardless of how good of a talent evaluator you might be, you will never get a complete assessment without the stats.

 

For one, your eyes will lie to you. For two, it's human nature to be biased. And for three, without having watched every 2B play more or less every game, you really have no way of knowing if Pedroia is a great defender or a poor one.

 

Don't let your head explode about it. The stats usually bear out my evaluations and without bothering to surf all sorts of stats websites and crunching the numbers. In the end, neither my evaluations nor those of the stat- heads matter. If baseball performance was a science that could be completely predicted and evaluated with statistics, there would be no bad GMs. I' ll continue to watch hundreds of games every year, rely on my eyes anf win money more often than not in my several fantasy leagues. It works for me, because when the stats are presented they just tend to back up what I already knew.

[cp176]

I would never question that you enjoy all aspects of the game. I hope that from my posts, you did not get that impression . I am fairly familiar with Bill James and his study of sabermetrics. I certainly don't think that it is an either or situation. I think that a fairer question might be who has the better assessment - the person who relies solely on statistical analysis or the person who has been on the field and has lived the game. I don't think that there is right answer to that question. The best baseball people i know, believe in both used together. On this board, the people whose opinions I value the most such as yours, 700"s, Freds and numerous others certainly see the value in both.

should have added Pal, Spitball, ortiz, spud , all good reads

[a700hitter]

The problem that a lot of people have with sabermetrics is that they are disproving what traditionalists have accepted as true for dozens of years. It's hard to be told that something you've believed for a long time is simply not true.

I find value in stats, but more for players that I don't see very often -- especially west coast teams. I have found that modern sabermetrics tend to support the opinions that I have formed about the players that I watch most often. I have not found them to be inconsistent with views that I hold about these players or game strategy. There is definitely a value in stats for me, because it is impossible to be familiar with 700 players. But I must admit that when stats conflict with my opinion about players with which I am very familiar, I will go with my gut. Edited January 26, 2015 by a700hitter

[Northern Star]

Watching a player tells you what he could do. Stats tells you what he HAS done. Some stats are misleading because of the effect of other players in the outcome (W/L for pitchers). But at the end of the day, which approach - eyes or numbers - tells the fullest story when trying to gauge greatness and/or whether to hand out a seven year contract?

[Northern Star]

This is the exact type of response that gets my goat up. I have no doubt that you have watched thousands of games and that you know a good defender when you see one. But regardless of how good of a talent evaluator you might be, you will never get a complete assessment without the stats.

 

For one, your eyes will lie to you. For two, it's human nature to be biased. And for three, without having watched every 2B play more or less every game, you really have no way of knowing if Pedroia is a great defender or a poor one.

 

Also, welcome back!

[a700hitter]

Watching a player tells you what he could do. Stats tells you what he HAS done. Some stats are misleading because of the effect of other players in the outcome (W/L for pitchers). But at the end of the day, which approach - eyes or numbers - tells the fullest story when trying to gauge greatness and/or whether to hand out a seven year contract?

Excellent point. Neither approach has proved to be fool- proof when handing out contracts.