2014 Offseason Thread

[cp176]

Do not worry about him, it is his modus operandi. You will be fine around here.

 

thanks - he doesn't bother me. This is a little hobby for me right now. He is a no-counter to me. His implication and interpretation of what I said was false. I would never say that you could not be an avid fan if you had not played or coached. That was ridiculous and unfair. I am a great fan of football - coached the game for over 20 years- never played a down. I am not sure that I ever really knew all of the intricacies of the game but I got by.

[cp176]

thanks - he doesn't bother me. This is a little hobby for me right now. He is a no-counter to me. His implication and interpretation of what I said was false. I would never say that you could not be an avid fan if you had not played or coached. That was ridiculous and unfair. I am a great fan of football - coached the game for over 20 years- never played a down. I am not sure that I ever really knew all of the intricacies of the game but I got by.

 

 

I'm pretty sure that I will get blasted again for not being able to back up some of the things I post with facts and stats. I have seen too many things happen with respect to athletics in general to make me think that everything is explainable. It isn't. Every now and then someone will do something that the stats say can't be done. Maybe it even happens often. I am absolutely uninterested in a discussion that does not recognize the human element that is involved in just about everything we see and do.

[iortiz]

thanks - he doesn't bother me. This is a little hobby for me right now. He is a no-counter to me. His implication and interpretation of what I said was false. I would never say that you could not be an avid fan if you had not played or coached. That was ridiculous and unfair. I am a great fan of football - coached the game for over 20 years- never played a down. I am not sure that I ever really knew all of the intricacies of the game but I got by.

 

His interpretations are usually wrong. He claims to be the king of common sense and other BS, and he shows just the opposite.

 

Anyway... Here in Mexico Soccer is our national sport it is what I played a lot when I was younger. I just played baseball in the streets with my buddies. Loved it. This year I was invited to be part of a team. Hopefully I do not kill myself trying hahaha.

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[cp176]

His interpretations are usually wrong. He claims to be the king of common sense and other BS, and he shows just the opposite.

 

Anyway... Here in Mexico Soccer is our national sport it is what I played a lot when I was younger. I just played baseball in the streets with my buddys. Loved it. This year I was invited to be part of a team. Hopefully I do not kill myself trying hahaha.

 

Have fun - you won't regret playing. I am up here shoveling snow.

[iortiz]

I'm pretty sure that I will get blasted again for not being able to back up some of the things I post with facts and stats. I have seen too many things happen with respect to athletics in general to make me think that everything is explainable. It isn't. Every now and then someone will do something that the stats say can't be done. Maybe it even happens often. I am absolutely uninterested in a discussion that does not recognize the human element that is involved in just about everything we see and do.

Do not worry, You'll be blasted even if u show facts and stats anyway LOL!

 

Feel free to contribute according to your thoughts and convictions.

[iortiz]

Have fun - you won't regret playing. I am up here shoveling snow.

 

Thanks cp.

[iortiz]

Koji Uehara career as reliever -- ERA 2.06, 0.75 WHIP, .196 BAA, 11.5 K/9, ERA+ 202

Papelbon career as reliever -- ERA 2.35, 1.00 WHIP, .202, 10.4 k/9, ERA+ 185

 

I will certainly give you durability, but there is nothing in those stats that say that per-inning value of Pap was better.

 

Koji has 6 MLB years of duty, while Pap, 10. Also, Pap made it as closer, and Koji just made few closing appearances before coming to BOS. Again, they are not comparable.

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[Palodios]

Koji has 6 MLB years of duty, while Pap, 10. Also, Pap made it as closer, and Koji just made few closing appearances before coming to BOS. Again, they are not comparable.

 

Craig Kimbrel has only pitched 4 full years in the MLB. Should we discount his 1.47 Career ERA and 0.90 WHIP too?

 

Koji was an ace in Japan for 8 years before making it to the U.S. He had 8 Japanese all star appearances and 2 NPB CY Young awards. He won an Olympic bronze medal in 2004, and dominated the 2006 WBC. He closed for international competitions. None of these leagues are nearly as competitive as the MLB, but I don't think it is fair to discount Koji's 6 years of MLB success because he was too busy dominating Asia at the time.

[iortiz]

Craig Kimbrel has only pitched 4 full years in the MLB. Should we discount his 1.47 Career ERA and 0.90 WHIP too?

 

Koji was an ace in Japan for 8 years before making it to the U.S. He had 8 Japanese all star appearances and 2 NPB CY Young awards. He won an Olympic bronze medal in 2004, and dominated the 2006 WBC. He closed for international competitions. None of these leagues are nearly as competitive as the MLB, but I don't think it is fair to discount Koji's 6 years of MLB success because he was too busy dominating Asia at the time.

Not sure how Kimbrel came to the table, but no, sorry he is not comparable just yet. While I do like Koji and Kimbrel, they still have to show 10 Y of duty as CLOSERS at MLB level with durability and consistency in order to make a case. Unfortunately I do not see Koji pitching more than 2 years at high MLB level. I even have my ?s for next year. Also while he was a star in Japan, as you said that league is not even comparable, so you just can not make a case either. As for Kimbrel, sure! he probably will be the best closer for the next 10 Y but lets give him time to consolidate first since a lot of things can happen and the injury phantom is always around mostly behind pitchers.

[Palodios]

Not sure how Kimbrel came to the table, but no, sorry he is not comparable just yet.

 

Requiring a 10 year sample size for any comparison is silly for many reasons.

[iortiz]

Requiring a 10 year sample size for any comparison is silly for many reasons.

 

yeah, reason why I think theres no point of comparison. Tell you what, Lets wait he hits at least the FA.

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[User Name]

Koji Uehara career as reliever -- ERA 2.06, 0.75 WHIP, .196 BAA, 11.5 K/9, ERA+ 202

Papelbon career as reliever -- ERA 2.35, 1.00 WHIP, .202, 10.4 k/9, ERA+ 185

 

I will certainly give you durability, but there is nothing in those stats that say that per-inning value of Pap was better.

 

Again, iortiz will never, ever let facts or logic get in the way of a good argument. Papelbon is just not that good anymore, and he pitches in a weaker division and a weaker league overall. Bottom line results have been good, but it's easy to conclude they probably wouldn't be the same in the AL East, even in the current offense-suppressed environment.

[a700hitter]

Craig Kimbrel has only pitched 4 full years in the MLB. Should we discount his 1.47 Career ERA and 0.90 WHIP too?

 

Koji was an ace in Japan for 8 years before making it to the U.S. He had 8 Japanese all star appearances and 2 NPB CY Young awards. He won an Olympic bronze medal in 2004, and dominated the 2006 WBC. He closed for international competitions. None of these leagues are nearly as competitive as the MLB, but I don't think it is fair to discount Koji's 6 years of MLB success because he was too busy dominating Asia at the time.

And when you crunched the numbers before 2013, you concluded that Koji should be given the closers job, because the statisitical study indicated that he should have one of the three best seasons for a closer in MLB history? Koji's 2013 season was a career season. It was more remarkable that he was age 38 when he had his career season. His 2013 season was an outlier in the history of baseball. Irt was a season that would not have been projected for any closer in any season.

[iortiz]

Again, iortiz will never, ever let facts or logic get in the way of a good argument. Papelbon is just not that good anymore, and he pitches in a weaker division and a weaker league overall. Bottom line results have been good, but it's easy to conclude they probably wouldn't be the same in the AL East, even in the current offense-suppressed environment.

Geez... I already made my case of why they are not comparable. Go and read it.

 

After that and if you still want to compare two guys with a different sample size and different roles during that time, be my guest.

 

Also, Not that good, wonder what is good to you?

[Palodios]

And when you crunched the numbers before 2013, you concluded that Koji should be given the closers job, because the statisitical study indicated that he should have one of the three best seasons for a closer in MLB history? Koji's 2013 season was a career season. It was more remarkable that he was age 38 when he had his career season. His 2013 season was an outlier in the history of baseball. Irt was a season that would not have been projected for any closer in any season.

 

From 2010-2012 he had a 2.36 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 182 ERA+, 11.4K/9, and 10.76 K/BB. His health was a concern, but I don't see his 2013 results being so far and away from his career numbers.

 

Koji's career WHIP, and K/BB were outliers in the history of baseball, so I don't understand why you think it so unfathomable for him to do it again in 2013.

[iortiz]

From 2010-2012 he had a 2.36 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 182 ERA+, 11.4K/9, and 10.76 K/BB. His health was a concern, but I don't see his 2013 results being so far and away from his career numbers.

 

Koji's career WHIP, and K/BB were outliers in the history of baseball, so I don't understand why you think it so unfathomable for him to do it again in 2013.

 

Sorry Pal, 2010-2012 is a very small sample size when you put it together with "history of baseball" in the same sentence. Also he did not have a closer role. He had very few closing appearances.

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[a700hitter]

Koji Uehara career as reliever -- ERA 2.06, 0.75 WHIP, .196 BAA, 11.5 K/9, ERA+ 202

Papelbon career as reliever -- ERA 2.35, 1.00 WHIP, .202, 10.4 k/9, ERA+ 185

 

I will certainly give you durability, but there is nothing in those stats that say that per-inning value of Pap was better.

Durability counts. Roger Maris had a few great seasons and won two MVP awards beating out Mickey Mantle, but no one would argue that he was greater than Mantle. Durability is an important factor in assessing a players career. No one is saying that we would have been better off with Papelbon instead of Koji in 2013. Koji had an insanely outstanding season that year. The whole Papelebon discussion is the same BS Papelbon hate that I will never understand for a former player who performed very well for us. All Iortiz is saying is that Papelbon has performed as expected for the Phillies. He has been at his consistent career norms over the course of that contract, with the exception of one down season. Is a closer worth the money Papelbn gets? That is a different debate. The fact is he is still performing to the levels that he did when he was in Boston, which I have to assume that is what the Phillies were hoping they would get. The Phillies problem (and they have many) is not Papelbon's performance. Edited January 27, 2015 by a700hitter

[Palodios]

Is a closer worth the money Papelbn gets? That is a different debate.

 

That's where the argument always starts. Then someone in the Pap camp throws out stats, and then those stats get shot down, then we loop back into why people don't like Papelbon, and we go back to the money. Its one of those arguments.

[iortiz]

Durability counts. Roger Maris had a few great seasons and won two MVP awards beating out Mickey Mantle, but no one would argue that he was greater than Mantle. Durability is an important factor in assessing a players career. No one is saying that we would have been better off with Papelbon instead of Koji in 2013. Koji had an insanely outstanding season that year. The whole Papelebon discussion is the same BS Papelbon hate that I will never understand for a former player who performed very well for us. All Iortiz is saying is that Papelbon has performed as expected for the Phillies. He has been at his consistent career norms over the course of that contract, with the exception of one down season. Is a closer worth the money Papelbn gets? That is a different debate. The fact is he is still performing to the levels that he did when he was in Boston, which I have to assume that is what the Phillies were hoping they would get. The Phillies problem (and they have many) is not Papelbon's performance.

 

Plus they are paying what we were paying in 2011, and I'm not even considering the inflation. As I said, if the discount rate were 10%, the NPV at the time would look like a bargain to me considering how he has performed thus far.... as you said he is still performing to the levels that he did when he was in Boston.

[Palodios]

Sorry Pal, 2010-2012 is a very small sample size when you put it together with "history of baseball" in the same sentence. Also he did not have a closer role. He had very few closing appearances.

 

Let's try this. Throw the saves out the window. Pretend Koji pitched in the 6th inning for a losing team. Do his raw numbers -- minus saves-- seem impossible or unfathomable?

[a700hitter]

From 2010-2012 he had a 2.36 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 182 ERA+, 11.4K/9, and 10.76 K/BB. His health was a concern, but I don't see his 2013 results being so far and away from his career numbers.

 

Koji's career WHIP, and K/BB were outliers in the history of baseball, so I don't understand why you think it so unfathomable for him to do it again in 2013.

His career numbers are excellent, but even in the context of those outstanding numbers, his .056 WHIP in 2013 is an outlier as was his 1.09 ERA. Add to that the fact that he was never known to be durable, but he pitched a career number of innings in almost entirely high pressure situations. He struck out 101 batters-- something that Mo never did as closer. Also, his strike to balls ratio was off the carts as well. I appreciate Koji's season for waht it was, one of the greatest perfomances that I have witnessed over the course of a season. I realize that I will probably never see another Red Sox closer have that kind of season. As great as Papelbon was for us, he never had that kind of season. Neither did Mo for that matter. To argue that it was not an outlier is confusing to me, because by definition something that has exceeded almost every other performance in MLB history is the definition of an outlier. Are you arguing that it is not an outlier, because Kojiwas capable of the feat? Of course he was capable of the feat. He achieved it. That doesn't mean that it is not a career season and a statistical outlier. Yaz was a great player who was capable of winning a triple crown and he won it in 1967. That was his career season, and in many ways it was a statistical outlier for him too. I am not understanding the ppoint that you are trying to make about Koji. What is your point? Edited January 27, 2015 by a700hitter

[iortiz]

That's where the argument always starts. Then someone in the Pap camp throws out stats, and then those stats get shot down, then we loop back into why people don't like Papelbon, and we go back to the money. Its one of those arguments.

 

 

Thing is that at the time you already had 6 Y of sample size when the Phyllis made the offer... the offer was based on a decent sample size, and it told them (Phyllis) 2 things: Durability and consistency. In the end... Papelbon has performed as expected for the Phillies thus far. He has earned his pay check.

[mvp 78]

Yeah! And as I said, they are very helpful, but In the end I consider as well other intangibles from several options that the model suggests, I said that as well.

 

I recommend you to read the whole story before you post, no offense.

 

I read the whole story. It was a jumbled mess and hardly convincing. No offense.

[iortiz]

I read the whole story. It was a jumbled mess and hardly convincing. No offense.

 

Well if you had read the whole story you would have noticed that I said that intangibles and subjective situations were considered as well in order to make my picks.

[a700hitter]

That's where the argument always starts. Then someone in the Pap camp throws out stats, and then those stats get shot down, then we loop back into why people don't like Papelbon, and we go back to the money. Its one of those arguments.

It's a stupid loop. When I discuss players performance, I discuss it relative to that of other players and relative to their own prior performance. That is it. End of story. Don't jump to the assumption that I think we should have kept him or that I think he would have been better that Koji in 2013. If I thought those things, I'd say them. I'm not shy about sharing. I am also not arguing the value of his contract. Again, I wanted to make that argument I would. I am just saying that this guy is as steady and consistent as they come in the closers role, and his stats bear it out. As for the Papelbon hate from Red Sox fans, shame on those fans. Paps did nothing to deserve it from us. Am I angry right now? Yes I am. Is it misdirected? Yes it is. I have to leave now to shovel and I hate it. Do you have a sense of humor about this? I fear not.

[iortiz]

Let's try this. Throw the saves out the window. Pretend Koji pitched in the 6th inning for a losing team. Do his raw numbers -- minus saves-- seem impossible or unfathomable?

 

Well... if you take the saves out of the equation and pretend that he pitched in the 6th for a losing team I probably will have another argument.

 

Koji is a great player Pal. My point all along is that you just can't compare Koji with Pap. since the sample size and roles at the time thats all.

[Palodios]

His career numbers are excellent, but even in the context of those outstanding numbers, his .056 WHIP in 2013 is an outlier as was his 1.09 ERA.

 

In 2012, Koji had a 1.75 ERA, and a .065 WHIP. You make it seem like his 2013 is vastly different from that year.

[iortiz]

In 2012, Koji had a 1.75 ERA, and a .065 WHIP. You make it seem like his 2013 is vastly different from that year.

As closer?

 

Look at Andrew Miller or Tazawa... They are arguably two of the best set up guys around these days, but can they close?

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[Palodios]

Well... if you take the saves out of the equation and pretend that he pitched in the 6th for a losing team I probably will have another argument.

 

Koji is a great player Pal. My point all along is that you just can't compare Koji with Pap. since the sample size and roles at the time thats all.

 

It sounds like you're going to great lengths to not agree with me.

[iortiz]

It sounds like you're going to great lengths to not agree with me.

 

LOL believe it or not I usually agree with you Pal, probably not this time.