2014 Offseason Thread

[User Name]

Are you being sarcastic? Sorry, I can't tell...

 

Papelbon hasn't been that good in Philly. I think it would be hard to argue that he's had any seasons as good as his BOS years after he signed there, and his FB has been in steady decline. Sure, he's been okay. Still a good closer, but not worth the amount he's being paid. From his performance alone I don't think he would warrant being the highest paid closer in baseball, but with the Sox winning the WS with another (much cheaper) closer I can't imagine people are actually feeling like the Sox should have done anything other than what they did.

 

The reason he wasn't a good investment wasn't just because he wasn't going to be as good. It was also because the role of closer is only really critical for teams that are actually going to win games. Philly has the equivalent of a very expensive FG kicker on a bad team. It's just not where resources should go.

 

iortiz won't let facts and logic get in the way of a good argument.

[User Name]

Papelbon is in decline. If he is earning his pay check, why are the Phillies having so much trouble trading him?

 

Not only is he not that good anymore, he's disliked by fellow Phillies players and considered a clubhouse cancer. The Phillies can't give him away. But hey, Rivera highway or whatever.

[mvp 78]

While I do like stats, I think they are a bit overrated these days and some think they are the panacea, and they aren't.

 

Wait wait wait... Stats are overrated, but you used them to build a model for betting software that you created. If stats are overrated, you wouldn't need them to formulate your bets.

[User Name]

Not to beat a dead horse, but i was just reading an article by AJ Casavell where he talks about the impact of defensive shifts. In it he states that the statistical revolution is something we fans are "just catching up on" as Front Offices had been devaluing wins and RBI's and looking at more advanced analytic stats way before Bill James became mainstream. Now, a700 made a point saying that the Yankees weren't winning during their dynasty years because of advanced statistical analysis. How does he, or any of us, know this?

 

The truth is, that while might (financial might) is right in baseball, some of the most successful low-budget and even high-budget teams combine stats analysis with scouting presence. I find it funny how someone who watches the game casually thinks their "watch the games" mentality is superior to the tools used by those who do this for a living. Too much overvaluing of self-awareness and intelligence not just here, but all over the internet. /endrant.

[User Name]

Wait wait wait... Stats are overrated, but you used them to build a model for betting software that you created. If stats are overrated, you wouldn't need them to formulate your bets.

 

He also literally just made that argument up, unsurprisingly. The point being brought up is that you need both scouting and stats for the most effective type of player evaluation.

[mvp 78]

He also literally just made that argument up, unsurprisingly. The point being brought up is that you need both scouting and stats for the most effective type of player evaluation.

 

We all agree that stats and scouting have value. What's the issue then?

 

I post that stats are probably 70% of player evaluation and am told that's what Stevie Wonder thinks, because jokes about belittling someone else's posts. But we're the *******s, right?

[Bellhorn04]

Papelbon is in decline. If he is earning his pay check, why are the Phillies having so much trouble trading him?

 

The Phillies have been conducting themselves like idiots the last few years though. They should have traded Cliff Lee before this too. Now they're hanging onto Hamels.

[Bellhorn04]

When you look at the busts and injury prone closers signed like Hanrahan (7 M), Jenks (6 M), Mujica (5 M), Bailey (8 M) and Thorton who didn't close but still (6 M)... The Papelbon departure was a mistake considering the fact that he has been closing pretty well in Philly, and most important, he has stayed healthy. On the other hand those fat busts have cost us tons of money and wins.

 

Setting aside Papelbon entirely here, you're correct that the Sox threw away quite a bit of money on Jenks, Hanrahan and Bailey for next to nothing (except Brock Holt).

 

The Jenks signing in particular was a disaster. $12 million minus $1 million they eventually recovered in a settlement I believe.

[User Name]

Setting aside Papelbon entirely here, you're correct that the Sox threw away quite a bit of money on Jenks, Hanrahan and Bailey for next to nothing (except Brock Holt).

 

The Jenks signing in particular was a disaster. $12 million minus $1 million they eventually recovered in a settlement I believe.

 

But spent a pittance on Koji, and won a WS with him. There's two sides to every story.

[User Name]

We all agree that stats and scouting have value. What's the issue then?

 

I post that stats are probably 70% of player evaluation and am told that's what Stevie Wonder thinks, because jokes about belittling someone else's posts. But we're the *******s, right?

 

We are malcontents is what we are.

[Bellhorn04]

But spent a pittance on Koji, and won a WS with him. There's two sides to every story.

 

Absolutely. And now we have a new storyline on Koji, with $18 million invested in him.

[User Name]

Absolutely. And now we have a new storyline on Koji, with $18 million invested in him.

 

Unless health is a problem, Koji will be fine imo. I'm more worried about Ortiz tbh.

[cp176]

@PeteAbe: Medford native Bill Monbouquette, who pitched 8 seasons for the #RedSox from 1958-65, has died. Won 114 games in majors, threw a no-hitter.

 

Great articles written about Monboquette. His relationship with Pumpsie Green - Satchelle Paige pitching at the age of 59. Good stuff, good memories. bad teams. I listened to the game that Paige pitched in in 1965. Good story about a good local man. The fact that they were bad teams really didn't make any difference to us. It was baseball.

[cp176]

Monbouquette -

 

I am still quite puzzled as to how this whole sabermetrics issue is still being debated, discussed, and beaten to death. No one on the forum has discounted the value of using all aspects of evaluation. Is it really that much of a big deal to some of you how much value is placed on each particular method of evaluation. Is this being done simply for the sake of arguing? Is there another topic here if you dig a little deeper or what? Seriously - It just makes me wonder if there are people posting here that never really played the game. You can still be an avid fan - that's ok. I think we all get to believe what we want to believe.

[User Name]

Monbouquette -

 

I am still quite puzzled as to how this whole sabermetrics issue is still being debated, discussed, and beaten to death. No one on the forum has discounted the value of using all aspects of evaluation. Is it really that much of a big deal to some of you how much value is placed on each particular method of evaluation. Is this being done simply for the sake of arguing? Is there another topic here if you dig a little deeper or what? Seriously - It just makes me wonder if there are people posting here that never really played the game. You can still be an avid fan - that's ok. I think we all get to believe what we want to believe.

 

Elktonnick has. a700 called MVP blind because of his valuation of stats. Also, let's say someone here didn't play. Does that make them any less of a fan? That just sounds conceited and, quite frankly, pretty douchey. I played, and i've coached little league, but i don't think any less of a fan who didn't play or coach.

 

Also, this is a forum for baseball discussion. The argument for/against stats is, by definition, baseball discussion. It'd be easier if we had something more substantive to talk about, but alas, it's the slow part of the offseason.

[cp176]

Elktonnick has. a700 called MVP blind because of his valuation of stats. Also, let's say someone here didn't play. Does that make them any less of a fan? That just sounds conceited and, quite frankly, pretty douchey. I played, and i've coached little league, but i don't think any less of a fan who didn't play or coach.

 

Also, this is a forum for baseball discussion. The argument for/against stats is, by definition, baseball discussion. It'd be easier if we had something more substantive to talk about, but alas, it's the slow part of the offseason.

 

The Count has spoken - I am pretty sure your little buddy Renfield will chime in soon. You know nothing about me actually and I certainly don't care to know anything about you. I will not stoop to your level of name calling. Douchey and conceited - that's nice. I have been called a lot of things before but never those two. I didn't really mean to offend but I guess I struck a nerve.

[iortiz]

Wait wait wait... Stats are overrated, but you used them to build a model for betting software that you created. If stats are overrated, you wouldn't need them to formulate your bets.

 

Yeah! And as I said, they are very helpful, but In the end I consider as well other intangibles from several options that the model suggests, I said that as well.

 

I recommend you to read the whole story before you post, no offense.

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

Not only is he not that good anymore, he's disliked by fellow Phillies players and considered a clubhouse cancer. The Phillies can't give him away. But hey, Rivera highway or whatever.

 

Not that good? 39 SV, 91% SV%, microscopic 2.0 ERA,, Solid SO, durability after 10 Y of duty what else do u want? Fat busts signed by your boys?

[iortiz]

iortiz won't let facts and logic get in the way of a good argument.

 

I just presented facts. It is not my fault that you hate him.

[Palodios]

Papelbon blew 7 saves in 2013. If he was here instead of Koji, the Sox would not have homefield advantage against the Tigers, and probably would have lost in the ALCS.

[iortiz]

Elktonnick has. a700 called MVP blind because of his valuation of stats. Also, let's say someone here didn't play. Does that make them any less of a fan? That just sounds conceited and, quite frankly, pretty douchey. I played, and i've coached little league, but i don't think any less of a fan who didn't play or coach.

 

Also, this is a forum for baseball discussion. The argument for/against stats is, by definition, baseball discussion. It'd be easier if we had something more substantive to talk about, but alas, it's the slow part of the offseason.

 

Yeah, the forum is for civil discussions, problem is that you use it to make baseless accusations that are suitable to your nonsense modus operandi.

[iortiz]

Papelbon blew 7 saves in 2013. If he was here instead of Koji, the Sox would not have homefield advantage against the Tigers, and probably would have lost in the ALCS.

 

We'll never know, but what it's a fact is that Cherrys asked for Papelbon when the two fat duo dynamico collapsed.

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

The Count has spoken - I am pretty sure your little buddy Renfield will chime in soon. You know nothing about me actually and I certainly don't care to know anything about you. I will not stoop to your level of name calling. Douchey and conceited - that's nice. I have been called a lot of things before but never those two. I didn't really mean to offend but I guess I struck a nerve.

 

Do not worry about him, it is his modus operandi. You will be fine around here.

[iortiz]

We all agree that stats and scouting have value. What's the issue then?

 

I post that stats are probably 70% of player evaluation and am told that's what Stevie Wonder thinks, because jokes about belittling someone else's posts. But we're the *******s, right?

 

I think 70% is high to me. It is a subjective thing but probably 50 % stats and 50 % scouting/intangibles would be my take.

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

The Phillies have been conducting themselves like idiots the last few years though. They should have traded Cliff Lee before this too. Now they're hanging onto Hamels.

 

While it is true, at the time the Phillies had arguably the best rotation and the best team in baseball and they wanted to round it with the best closer available, so they didn't hesitate... And still Papelbon has earned his pay check.

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[Palodios]

Nobody will know, but what it is a fact is that Cherrys asked for Papelbon when the two fat duo dynamico collapsed.

 

We do know. Papelbon has not put up numbers anywhere like Koji's 2013 recently.

 

Ben inquires on lots of players, but doesn't always make the move. They probably only had the money for one of Pap/Peavy, and I believe they made the right move. Otherwise we may have seen more of Doubront as a starter, and no one wanted that.

[Kingface]

Papelbon blew 7 saves in 2013. If he was here instead of Koji, the Sox would not have homefield advantage against the Tigers, and probably would have lost in the ALCS.

 

I hear where you're coming from....and i do agree with you but there are WAY too many variables to say it's a definite.

[iortiz]

We do know. Papelbon has not put up numbers anywhere like Koji's 2013 recently.

 

Ben inquires on lots of players, but doesn't always make the move. They probably only had the money for one of Pap/Peavy, and I believe they made the right move. Otherwise we may have seen more of Doubront as a starter, and no one wanted that.

No, we do not. Pap could have saved those blown saves made by B and H. A lot of speculation could be managed and it is fine.

... also, Koji hasn't posted Pap's career numbers as closer. Do not take me wrong, I like Koji but they are not even comparable. Koji is one year wonder as closer. (sorry he didn't even close a full season in 2013). Pap has 10 Y of consistency and DURABILITY under his belt.

Edited January 27, 2015 by iortiz

[iortiz]

I hear where you're coming from....and i do agree with you but there are WAY too many variables to say it's a definite.

 

Yup, a lot speculation could be managed and it is oks, in the end this is what the board is about, isn't it.

 

Btw, welcome.

[Palodios]

No, we do not. Pap could have saved those blown saves made by B and H. A lot of speculation could be managed and it is fine.

... also, Koji hasn't posted Pap's career numbers as closer. Do not take me wrong, I like Koji but they are not even comparable. Koji is one year wonder as closer. Pap has 10 Y of consistency and DURABILITY under his belt.

 

Koji Uehara career as reliever -- ERA 2.06, 0.75 WHIP, .196 BAA, 11.5 K/9, ERA+ 202

Papelbon career as reliever -- ERA 2.35, 1.00 WHIP, .202, 10.4 k/9, ERA+ 185

 

I will certainly give you durability, but there is nothing in those stats that say that per-inning value of Pap was better.