Ellsbury is en fuego!

[Spitball]

I believe the Red Sox will definitely make Ellsbury a qualifying offer...And that could make things interesting.

 

Under baseball's collective bargaining agreement of last year, teams may tender their free agents a guaranteed one-year "qualifying offer" that is equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players from the most recently completed season. Last year, it was $13.3 million. Also, any team signing a free agent that has been offered a qualifying offer will be required to give up its highest draft position (the top ten positions are protected).

 

Two of Boras's clients last year, Kyle Lohse and Michael Bourn, had to settle for less than they had hoped because they received and turned down qualifying offers. Teams were hesitant to lose that draft pick. Has Boras learned anything about dealing with that "qualifying offer" from last year?

[Orange Juiced]

I believe the Red Sox will definitely make Ellsbury a qualifying offer...And that could make things interesting.

 

Under baseball's collective bargaining agreement of last year, teams may tender their free agents a guaranteed one-year "qualifying offer" that is equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players from the most recently completed season. Last year, it was $13.3 million. Also, any team signing a free agent that has been offered a qualifying offer will be required to give up its highest draft position (the top ten positions are protected).

 

Two of Boras's clients last year, Kyle Lohse and Michael Bourn, had to settle for less than they had hoped because they received and turned down qualifying offers. Teams were hesitant to lose that draft pick. Has Boras learned anything about dealing with that "qualifying offer" from last year?

 

If nothing else, it might be a little leverage the Sox have. Make the QO, then negotiate with Boras, hoping the draft pick compensation drives down the price. If that succeeds, then the Sox get to keep Ellsbury at a (probably slightly) reduced rate. If he accepts the QO, great, you get Ellsbury for one year and revisit this. If he gets signed elsewhere, the Sox get a very valuable draft pick.

 

Seems like the no-brainer move to make the QO.

[Bellhorn04]

If he finishes this season upright, there's no way Ellsbury can accept a QO.

 

The example of Michael Bourn may be an apt one, but at the end of the day Bourn got a guaranteed 48 million, potential 60 million.

 

That has to be quite a bit less than the worst-case scenario for Ellsbury.

[Orange Juiced]

If he finishes this season upright, there's no way Ellsbury can accept a QO.

 

The example of Michael Bourn may be an apt one, but at the end of the day Bourn got a guaranteed 48 million, potential 60 million.

 

That has to be quite a bit less than the worst-case scenario for Ellsbury.

 

I would agree. So the Sox would end up getting a very helpful draft pick out of it. That's probably the best-case scenario for Boston, as I would be surprised if they sign him to a mega-deal. But hey, you never know.

[BSN07]

I would agree. So the Sox would end up getting a very helpful draft pick out of it. That's probably the best-case scenario for Boston, as I would be surprised if they sign him to a mega-deal. But hey, you never know.

 

Hoping for the first rounder is a double edged sword. If a bottom 10 team, a team like Seattle(who I predicted would make a big push for him if he had a good+ season). Then they get some crap compensation sandwich pick.

[Palodios]

Hoping for the first rounder is a double edged sword. If a bottom 10 team, a team like Seattle(who I predicted would make a big push for him if he had a good+ season). Then they get some crap compensation sandwich pick.

 

With the new system, it doesn't work that way. All compensation picks are sandwich picks. However, with the new monetary system, even though the pick itself isn't as valuable as a first rounder, the added financial gain is more valuable, and helps sign overslot players later in the draft.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/explaining-qualifying-offers.html

[Spitball]

Hoping for the first rounder is a double edged sword. If a bottom 10 team, a team like Seattle(who I predicted would make a big push for him if he had a good+ season). Then they get some crap compensation sandwich pick.

 

Pal is correct on the compensation pick, but I agree with you on Seattle being a likely landing spot for Ellsbury. They are currently not a bottom 10 team but are not too far away. In any event, they are desperate to get offense and will overpay. Also, Ellsbury is from the Pacific Northwest. I mentioned this on an earlier thread.

[jung]

I see some other team offering Ells money that the Sox will simply be unwilling to match. How do you justify spending big bucks on Ells if you still believe in JBJ? Aren't you going to take the shot at repeating the Ells experience with the cost controlled JBJ taking whatever money the Sox would have been willing to spend on Ells elsewhere?

[mvp 78]

So Ellsbury was completely en fuego last night, eh?

 

2 backwards k's with runners in scoring position. Ugly.

[Orange Juiced]

Pal is correct on the compensation pick, but I agree with you on Seattle being a likely landing spot for Ellsbury. They are currently not a bottom 10 team but are not too far away. In any event, they are desperate to get offense and will overpay. Also, Ellsbury is from the Pacific Northwest. I mentioned this on an earlier thread.

 

I read a report earlier in the week from a Mets' beat writer that said that the Mets will be all-in on Ellsbury. So either way, the Sox look to have to pay through the nose to retain him.

[Orange Juiced]

So Ellsbury was completely en fuego last night, eh?

 

2 backwards k's with runners in scoring position. Ugly.

 

And a deep laser to right-center that Hoes made a great catch on...if he doesn't make that catch it's a certain double, probably a triple.

[marklmw]

I believe the Red Sox will definitely make Ellsbury a qualifying offer...And that could make things interesting.

 

Under baseball's collective bargaining agreement of last year, teams may tender their free agents a guaranteed one-year "qualifying offer" that is equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players from the most recently completed season. Last year, it was $13.3 million. Also, any team signing a free agent that has been offered a qualifying offer will be required to give up its highest draft position (the top ten positions are protected).

 

Two of Boras's clients last year, Kyle Lohse and Michael Bourn, had to settle for less than they had hoped because they received and turned down qualifying offers. Teams were hesitant to lose that draft pick. Has Boras learned anything about dealing with that "qualifying offer" from last year?

 

So what happens when a team with a top ten pick in the draft were to sign Ellsbury ... how is Boston Compensated?

[marklmw]

With the new system, it doesn't work that way. All compensation picks are sandwich picks. However, with the new monetary system, even though the pick itself isn't as valuable as a first rounder, the added financial gain is more valuable, and helps sign overslot players later in the draft.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/explaining-qualifying-offers.html

 

Thanks for the information

[SoxSport]

The way Ells has been playing lately, I doubt he's going anywhere.

[jad]

Also, when Els came up, he hit fine--hits to all fields. Bradley is great to watch, but he was completely over-matched when he came up this spring. (The 'soft' label on JE is of course only relative to the extraordinary tough-ness of ESPN posters who claim this.)

[Spitball]

So what happens when a team with a top ten pick in the draft were to sign Ellsbury ... how is Boston Compensated?

 

Boston would still get the same picking position after round one and before round two. The only difference would be that the team signing Ellsbury (provided they have a top 10 pick) would not lose their pick.

[Spitball]

I read a report earlier in the week from a Mets' beat writer that said that the Mets will be all-in on Ellsbury. So either way, the Sox look to have to pay through the nose to retain him.

 

Unless the Mets have a top ten pick (possible), I don't know if they will be players for Ellsbury. Last winter, they refused to sign Bourn because they did not want to surrender their number one draft pick. Even when the price for Bourn dropped considerably, they wanted an arbitrator to rule on the draft pick loss first.

 

There are a lot of teams on the fringes of that top ten draft pick category. I hope we don't start seeing teams going with the "youth movement" philosophy to disguise an attempt to reach the bottom ten category. Surely it won't happen.

[mvp 78]

Also, when Els came up, he hit fine--hits to all fields. Bradley is great to watch, but he was completely over-matched when he came up this spring. (The 'soft' label on JE is of course only relative to the extraordinary tough-ness of ESPN posters who claim this.)

 

And Youk...

[sk7326]

Bradley was overmatched in his tour here - but he also had almost no experience above single-A. His spring was such a phenomenon that it was hard to ignore, but such a fluke that his slow start was sort of predestined. That said, his pitch recognition and approach are 10-year veteran level already ... he knows what is a strike, he just needs more experience hitting big league junk. He has been very good in the minors - and his return tours to the bigs have been solid. Can Bradley next season hit .250 as a 24 year old? We know HIS .250 will actually come with more meat than an Iglesias for instance - more power potential (though not amazing) and a legitimately good ability to get on base. Take a .340 OBP with a plus-level centerfield? That is a legitimate big league starter, and still with a few more years of growth/prime left.

[Orange Juiced]

I feel like the Sox are a bit in a no-win situation with Ellsbury. There are two ways to look at him, IMO.

 

First, you could see him as a really talented player who has had a run of bad injury luck. You would see his 2011 and 2013 seasons as normative, and see his 2012 season as one where he was trying to work his way back from that bad shoulder injury. If you end up with the 2011/13 Ellsbury, that's a tremendous player, a 6-8 WAR player. And that's worth $20m per season.

 

Or second, you could see his 2011 as an outlier, and think that he's basically a .295/.340/.420/.760 kind of guy that struggles with consistency and, when he gets injured, takes longer than what you'd expect to get back on the field. That player isn't worth $20m per season into his age-36 season.

 

My concern is that if the Sox spend huge dollars to keep him, what we'll get is an inconsistent performance from here on out, similar to what we've been seeing through his career. And we'll be able to say, geez, who in the world couldn't have seen THAT coming? And if they don't sign him, Bradley struggles (which would be expected, given it would be his rookie season) and Ellsbury finally reaches that level that his talent suggests is there...but he does it for someone else (like the frickin' Yankees).

[marklmw]

I feel like the Sox are a bit in a no-win situation with Ellsbury. There are two ways to look at him, IMO.

 

First, you could see him as a really talented player who has had a run of bad injury luck. You would see his 2011 and 2013 seasons as normative, and see his 2012 season as one where he was trying to work his way back from that bad shoulder injury. If you end up with the 2011/13 Ellsbury, that's a tremendous player, a 6-8 WAR player. And that's worth $20m per season.

 

Or second, you could see his 2011 as an outlier, and think that he's basically a .295/.340/.420/.760 kind of guy that struggles with consistency and, when he gets injured, takes longer than what you'd expect to get back on the field. That player isn't worth $20m per season into his age-36 season.

 

My concern is that if the Sox spend huge dollars to keep him, what we'll get is an inconsistent performance from here on out, similar to what we've been seeing through his career. And we'll be able to say, geez, who in the world couldn't have seen THAT coming? And if they don't sign him, Bradley struggles (which would be expected, given it would be his rookie season) and Ellsbury finally reaches that level that his talent suggests is there...but he does it for someone else (like the frickin' Yankees).

 

There are many baseball fans and I am one of them that believe that the MVP award should go to the outstanding everyday player. The Cy Young award to the best pitcher. Ellsbury season in 2011 from the lead-off position has to be one of the best ever. If he had won the MVP ... and I said 'If' ... would we be having this discussion? Seems like we have one of the premier players in baseball on our team but without the love of some Sox fans. I have heard people say that 30 is the new 40 when it comes to HR's ... I can see Ellsbury averaging 4-5 HR's per month playing left field at age 35. He obviously has fast twitch muscles, he is intelligent, I think it is a no-brainer for the Sox to resign him and have him retire wearing a Sox uniform. This whole notion that he will not have any speed 5 years from now is ludicrous. After all he hasn't been seen hanging out with Gronk and he obviously takes very good care of himself. Remember he was hit by a truck (Beltre). Cut the guy some slack.

[sk7326]

There are many baseball fans and I am one of them that believe that the MVP award should go to the outstanding everyday player. The Cy Young award to the best pitcher. Ellsbury season in 2011 from the lead-off position has to be one of the best ever. If he had won the MVP ... and I said 'If' ... would we be having this discussion? Seems like we have one of the premier players in baseball on our team but without the love of some Sox fans. I have heard people say that 30 is the new 40 when it comes to HR's ... I can see Ellsbury averaging 4-5 HR's per month playing left field at age 35. He obviously has fast twitch muscles, he is intelligent, I think it is a no-brainer for the Sox to resign him and have him retire wearing a Sox uniform. This whole notion that he will not have any speed 5 years from now is ludicrous. After all he hasn't been seen hanging out with Gronk and he obviously takes very good care of himself. Remember he was hit by a truck (Beltre). Cut the guy some slack.

 

There is definitely a severe anti-pitcher bias in the MVP for the reasons you cite ... although that clearly violates the rules that voters get. Ellsbury this year is the best CF in the American League not named Mike Trout. And that is a very worthy guy. His 2011 - I'd have given him the MVP, though Verlander was a great choice and Ellsbury had to take the fall for the Red Sox September injury-palooza. 30 is not too bad an age for a good athlete, but so much of his value is in his defense and legs. Can he hit to carry a corner position if he loses a step. It's possible, but not a percentage play. It's not that he won't have speed in 5 years - it's that he cannot play CF anymore and have to shift to a position with a much higher offensive "Mendoza line".

 

If he had more than one season like 2011 and more than two seasons like 2011/2013 and if he was 28 entering the free agent market instead of 30, we'd be having a different discussion. Ellsbury's next team is probably not buying a ton of Ellsbury's physical/performance prime years. That is the interesting wager. I am with you - the 2013 version of Ellsbury is absolutely an $18-20M player. But Ellsbury's age 30-34 seasons being those sorts of seasons seems very unlikely from here.

[Orange Juiced]

There are many baseball fans and I am one of them that believe that the MVP award should go to the outstanding everyday player. The Cy Young award to the best pitcher. Ellsbury season in 2011 from the lead-off position has to be one of the best ever. If he had won the MVP ... and I said 'If' ... would we be having this discussion? Seems like we have one of the premier players in baseball on our team but without the love of some Sox fans. I have heard people say that 30 is the new 40 when it comes to HR's ... I can see Ellsbury averaging 4-5 HR's per month playing left field at age 35. He obviously has fast twitch muscles, he is intelligent, I think it is a no-brainer for the Sox to resign him and have him retire wearing a Sox uniform. This whole notion that he will not have any speed 5 years from now is ludicrous. After all he hasn't been seen hanging out with Gronk and he obviously takes very good care of himself. Remember he was hit by a truck (Beltre). Cut the guy some slack.

 

So you're taking the first option I listed, which is fine. I guess I'm somewhere in the middle of the two options...I don't see his true level as being an annual MVP-caliber player, but I also think he's pretty darned good. I just am not sure that's worth $20 million a year through age 36. But like I said, if they lose him to NY, watch him put up ridiculous numbers for the next 6 seasons.

[Palodios]

So you're taking the first option I listed, which is fine. I guess I'm somewhere in the middle of the two options...I don't see his true level as being an annual MVP-caliber player, but I also think he's pretty darned good. I just am not sure that's worth $20 million a year through age 36. But like I said, if they lose him to NY, watch him put up ridiculous numbers for the next 6 seasons.

 

The Yankees probably aren't signing him. Gardner is probably best suited for center field, and the Yankees get more value out of grabbing someone like Pence or Choo for one of the corners. Or they give Grandy a qualifying offer, which he'd probably accept. There are plenty of expensive players that fit the Yankees team, but Ellsbury probably isn't one of them right now.

[Lord Snow]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Jacoby sign a 1-year incentive laden deal (something like 1-year $10M + $10M in incentives) if Boras and Ells don't get the money they want. If Jacoby can show some consistency (i.e. 2 good years back-to-back) his stock will go way up in the 2014 off-season. But on the flip side if he misses a ton of time his stock will go way down.

 

All in all, I think Jacoby is going to sign for 6-7 years and $80-110M. I could stomach the Sox paying him towards the lower end of that spectrum.

[Behindenemylines]

Pedroia also earned his contract and loves playing in Boston.

 

Ellsbury's main asset will diminish with age......plus, what has Ellsbury done to earn such a huge contract?

 

Sox will offer Ellsbury a contract that will not be agreed upon by Boras. The better Ellsbury plays in 2013 the better for the Sox this season, but worse for them and the return of Ellsbury. Unless he takes less to stay in Boston I can't see him coming back. JBJ rea will start next season.

[italstallianion]

I just want draft picks. I'm fine with Ellsbury/Drew/Napoli (although he'll probably accept a QO) going. I'd want to hold onto Salty unless we get McCann.

[sk7326]

I just want draft picks. I'm fine with Ellsbury/Drew/Napoli (although he'll probably accept a QO) going. I'd want to hold onto Salty unless we get McCann.

 

McCann's durability for the future is a very serious concern. Big reason the Red Sox have invested so heavily in catchers has just been the reality of finding one for a long term. Just a really tough gig to hold. To Salty's credit, he has made himself a non-awful receiver/defensive catcher and a legitimate 2-3 win sort of player. Given the rock bottom replacement level of the position - he is as good a reasonable alternative as there is.

[italstallianion]

McCann's durability for the future is a very serious concern. Big reason the Red Sox have invested so heavily in catchers has just been the reality of finding one for a long term. Just a really tough gig to hold. To Salty's credit, he has made himself a non-awful receiver/defensive catcher and a legitimate 2-3 win sort of player. Given the rock bottom replacement level of the position - he is as good a reasonable alternative as there is.

 

I agree, and considering he's a little bit younger than some of the other non-McCann options, and since he hits right handed pitching better than most of the non-McCann (or Mauer) options, I'd like to keep him. What I'd love is a catcher that can hit lefties to help keep Salty from batting right handed. I have a feeling the market will make us hold onto Napoli. I wouldn't mind holding onto Drew or Ellsbury but that depends on price. It'll be an exciting offseason.

[marklmw]

For all the Ellsbury doubters out there. Lou Brock in 1974 at age 35 had his most productive season for Stolen Bases at 118. His Second best was 74 in 1966 at the age of 27. In 1975 & 1976 at the age of 36 & 37 respectively Brock stole 56 bases. Brock had some huge numbers but his CS numbers were fairly high compared to Ellsbury.

Brock's biggest season for HR's was 21 at the age of 27. He only hit 3 with his 118 SB's in 1974. As a Sox fan I am not overly concerned about Ellsbury slowing down over the next 5 seasons. Ellsbury is also a young 30 as he has a late birthday of September 11. So maybe a 6-7 year contract for Ells is not unrealistic maybe at 18m per.

 

Ellsbury does not have to repeat his 2011 season to justify a long term contract ... he can produce 80% of his 2011 numbers and he will not be a disappointment.