Ellsbury is en fuego!

[sk7326]

Bogaerts should be untouchable right about now. King Felix will not leave Seattle ... rumors are that he is a vampire and needs to play where the sun does not shine.

 

Oh he IS untouchable - but that's why you pick one of the league's best players (pitcher or otherwise) as a target for him. 28 next year, incredibly durable - great fundamentals (low effort delivery etc) - and you'll be buying a lot of peak value. And Seattle has a case for dumping him.

 

San Francisco has far less of a case for moving Bumgarner - theya re not really rebuilding. They'd trade Lincecum for a handful of magic beans, but that is a totally different story.

[Orange Juiced]

Oh he IS untouchable - but that's why you pick one of the league's best players (pitcher or otherwise) as a target for him. 28 next year, incredibly durable - great fundamentals (low effort delivery etc) - and you'll be buying a lot of peak value. And Seattle has a case for dumping him.

 

San Francisco has far less of a case for moving Bumgarner - theya re not really rebuilding. They'd trade Lincecum for a handful of magic beans, but that is a totally different story.

 

I agree that SF isn't exactly interested in moving Bumgarner. But my premise is that JBJ is an elite prospect (not a generational prospect, but an elite one nonetheless), Dempster is a solid NL starter, and two of Boston's pitching prospects - Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, DLR - well, that makes for a pretty enticing package. SF could easily walk away from that deal a much better team.

[mvp 78]

I would deal Barnes and Owens and Middlebrooks for Bumgarner and a pitching prospect.

 

SF would hang up the phone real quick. You'd have to empty the farm with Bogaerts, Owens, Cecchini, Barnes and JBJ. They might not even do that trade.

 

Bumgarner is a 24 year old ace. They have no incentive to move him.

[redsoxrules]

I am. The AL MVP race is really between Trout and Cabrera again (closer this year than last although Trout has a better chance of actually being voted) with Chris Davis attracting those who genuflect at the HR-RBI altar. Ellsbury has been one of the best dozen or so players in the American League this year. Each voter has to fill out 10 names in the MVP ballot - he absolutely deserves to be named on a ballot that size. Might only end up something like 9th or 10th in the voting - but his season has absolutely justified that level of consideration.

 

lol seriously?

I can easily name 10 AL players who would finish ahead of Ellsbury in the MVP race. You have to remember that the MVP

doesn't account for defense and mostly for offensive numbers.

[Orange Juiced]

Well then no trade for an ace really will ever happen. No team has an incentive to trade away an ace. If it's an old ace like Cliff Lee, we'd scream bloody murder if the Sox emptied the farm for him. If it's a young ace, you're saying that no team would trade one of those away. Thus.....trading for an ace pitcher isn't going to happen, unless it's just for a rental.

 

But, as is the premise of this discussion, the Sox are willing to move JBJ for starting pitching, then it HAS to be for an ace. They have a ton of *good* starters...dealing JBJ away for another *good* starter is pointless. You only deal him away for an ace.

 

So from what you're saying here.....well, it ain't gonna happen at all. And if it ain't gonna happen, then there's no reason to trade JBJ. And if you're going to keep JBJ, then either you decide to have both him and Ellsbury, or you have to say goodbye to Jacoby.

[Orange Juiced]

lol seriously?

I can easily name 10 AL players who would finish ahead of Ellsbury in the MVP race. You have to remember that the MVP

doesn't account for defense and mostly for offensive numbers.

 

Just for fun, who are these 10 players? For what it's worth, Ellsbury is #7 in the AL in runs created. Ortiz is ahead of him, but we know Ortiz isn't gonna get a ton of votes for MVP.

[sk7326]

SF would hang up the phone real quick. You'd have to empty the farm with Bogaerts, Owens, Cecchini, Barnes and JBJ. They might not even do that trade.

 

Bumgarner is a 24 year old ace. They have no incentive to move him.

 

Truth is somewhere in between - Bumgarner has not handled the workload of a #1 yet. Has not pitched more than 8 this season - lot of NL pitchers have piled up significantly more innings (Wainwright and Kershaw by about 30) ... would take a lot to pry him loose, but not impossible. Either way the Giants hang up for the reasons you cite. The Giants need bats! Also, quality starting pitching is the hardest thing in the world to acquire, so when you develop one of your own he is a core guy.

[redsoxrules]

Just for fun, who are these 10 players? For what it's worth, Ellsbury is #7 in the AL in runs created. Ortiz is ahead of him, but we know Ortiz isn't gonna get a ton of votes for MVP.

 

If Ellsbury couldn't win it with the season he had 2 years ago he's def not in the mix yet for this year as his offensive numbers are not even close to that season.

[sk7326]

lol seriously?

I can easily name 10 AL players who would finish ahead of Ellsbury in the MVP race. You have to remember that the MVP

doesn't account for defense and mostly for offensive numbers.

 

Counting stats certainly are a big deal. But so is having a great season on a contender. The Red Sox have had a pretty balanced group - Ellsbury has had the best season of the group (though Pedroia and Ortiz have their cases and not at all bad choices). He will pull votes on that basis. But since you asked.

 

Trout and Cabrera are far and away the best resumes - top 2 in fWAR, close this year instead of the rout it was last year, but definitely ahead of the pack.

Chris Davis and Evan Longoria will be way up there too. So there are 4 names.

While there are a lot of pitchers who deserve consideration, we know there is a severe anti-pitcher writers bias. As such, probably only Max Scherzer and his pitcher wins will get serious MVP consideration.

 

After that, it gets REALLY cloudy: Josh Donaldson, Adrian Beltre, Papi, Ellsbury, Pedroia, King Felix, Jason Kipnis, Manny Machado, Robinson Cano, Adam Jones ... could throw a blanket over all of them. Ellsbury's case is as good as any of them. He lacks the power numbers, but he is not going to put up slap hitter stats either - extra base hits is fine. Yes, defense and baserunning are not so valued by old fogey voters - but when you put up an eye popping counting statistic like his stolen base numbers, that gets noticed.

[sk7326]

If Ellsbury couldn't win it with the season he had 2 years ago he's def not in the mix yet for this year as his offensive numbers are not even close to that season.

 

Nobody is contending he is going to win the MVP - but will he crack the Top 10. Two years ago he was 2nd and deserved more consideration for #1 ... he is having a top 10 season again, although more like #6-12 than #2.

[Lord Snow]

Why is everybody so keen to move Jackie Bradley? He will either be our center fielder of the future or our left fielder, if we hold onto Ellsbury.

 

Also, 5-100 for Ellsbury? I don't see that happening. Unless Ellsbury finishes with 20 HR and beasts in the postseason. Carl Crawford is an Ellsbury-type and the contract the Sox gave him was viewed, almost unanimously, as horrendous around baseball. Crawford got 7-142. Last year when Michael Bourn, another Ellsbury-type, hit free agency and nobody wanted to touch him so he signed for 4-48.

 

I think Ellsbury will be somewhere in between on the guaranteed money. Somewhere between at $12.5-$17.5M per year and 5-6 years.

[BSN07]

Like I said before, if he takes a Bourn type deal then fine bring him back, if he wants BJ Upton money + let him walk.

 

And there is probably next to no chance he takes an extension offer so close to being a FA.

[Lord Snow]

Like I said before, if he takes a Bourn type deal then fine bring him back, if he wants BJ Upton money + let him walk.

 

And there is probably next to no chance he takes an extension offer so close to being a FA.

 

I'd be very happy keeping Ellsbury on BJ Upton money. 5-72.5? Sounds about right, and good to me.

[a700hitter]

Maybe Theo will sign him for $100 million +. He gave Carl Crawford $142 million.

[Lord Snow]

Maybe Theo will sign him for $100 million +. He gave Carl Crawford $142 million.

 

Haha. I think the Cubs will be in the mix on Ellsbury. He was one of Theo's draftees and Theo LOVES a lot of the guys he drafted and brought along.

 

I could stomach the Sox guaranteeing him up to $90M. But Jacoby Ellsbury is not a $100M player, he doesn't have the durability or the consistency.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

I'd be very happy keeping Ellsbury on BJ Upton money. 5-72.5? Sounds about right, and good to me.

 

He'll probably get a five year contract, but not at that price. If they do give him BJ Upton money, pray he doesn't play like him. He's absolutely terrible this year.

[Lord Snow]

He'll probably get a five year contract, but not at that price. If they do give him BJ Upton money, pray he doesn't play like him. He's absolutely terrible this year.

 

BJ Upton was terrible before this year. Isn't his career OBP like .310? Atlanta was stupid to give him that kind of money.

[italstallianion]

BJ Upton was terrible before this year. Isn't his career OBP like .310? Atlanta was stupid to give him that kind of money.

 

 

Even including this horrible season (.188/.275/.307/.583) his career numbers are .250/.331/.413/.744

[rjortiz]

BJ Upton was terrible before this year. Isn't his career OBP like .310? Atlanta was stupid to give him that kind of money.

 

He's a plus defender in CF, with great baserunning skills, and good power numbers. He was a consistent 3 win player for the Rays. I think the contract was OK at the time.

[marklmw]

I wonder what JBJ would fetch in terms of a starting pitcher. Remember, here's what the Sox will have for next year:

 

Lester (assuming they pick up his option)

Buchholz

Peavy

Lackey

Doubront

Dempster

- - - - -

Webster

DeLaRosa

Workman

Ranaudo

Barnes

 

So there's already somewhat of a logjam at SP. You'd likely have to get rid of two of the top six guys, and then add this mystery pitcher.

 

Here are the potential free agent starting pitchers (* indicates an option):

 

Starting Pitchers

Bronson Arroyo

Scott Baker

Erik Bedard

Nick Blackburn *

A.J. Burnett

Chris Capuano *

Chris Carpenter

Bruce Chen

Bartolo Colon

Aaron Cook

Jorge De La Rosa

Scott Feldman

Gavin Floyd

Jeff Francis

Armando Galarraga

Jon Garland

Matt Garza

Roy Halladay *

Jason Hammel

Aaron Harang *

Rich Harden

Dan Haren

Roberto Hernandez

Tim Hudson

Phil Hughes

Ubaldo Jimenez *

Josh Johnson

Jeff Karstens

Hiroki Kuroda

John Lannan

Jon Lester *

Colby Lewis

Ted Lilly

Tim Lincecum

Derek Lowe

Paul Maholm

Shaun Marcum

Jason Marquis

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Brett Myers *

Ricky Nolasco

Mike Pelfrey

Andy Pettitte

Wandy Rodriguez *

Jonathan Sanchez

Ervin Santana

Johan Santana *

Joe Saunders *

James Shields *

Tim Stauffer

Jason Vargas

Ryan Vogelsong *

Edinson Volquez

Tsuyoshi Wada *

Chien-Ming Wang

Chris Young

Barry Zito

 

Not exactly an inspiring list, IMO. Garza would be fine, but he's probably wicked expensive.

 

So maybe you're on to something. Maybe the best way to spend the resources is with a trade that looks something like this:

 

The Sox deal JBJ, Dempster, and Ranaudo to San Francisco, and get back Madison Bumgarner. They are losing Pence after this season, and JBJ would be a great fit for them. Dempster fills the pitching hole, at least temporarily. Ranaudo steps in for them when Dempster's contract is up after the 2014 season. For the Sox, they get a premier lefty starting pitcher at really good money (under contract through 2019 if the Sox use the options in 2018 and 2019, for just $55.75 million - an average of just over $9 mil per season). The rotation would be Bumgarner, Buchholz, Lester, Peavy, Lackey, and Doubront. Then they sign Ellsbury to a 5-year deal at about $20 mil per season. So they get a top-flight SP and a top-flight CF for a total of about $29 million per season. That's pretty reasonable, IMO.

 

I'd be very happy keeping Ellsbury on BJ Upton money. 5-72.5? Sounds about right, and good to me.

 

What do BJ Upton, Carl Crawford and Julio Lugo have in common?

Ans. They all played for Tampa Bay and signed FA contracts for sick money. Each of these players was over paid by 40% and they all stunk it up big time for their new team.

[marklmw]

Why is everybody so keen to move Jackie Bradley? He will either be our center fielder of the future or our left fielder, if we hold onto Ellsbury.

 

I think your corner outfielders much like corner infielders have to have a chance of hitting 25 HR's and I do not see this coming from JBJ.

[italstallianion]

OBP is way more valuable than slugging. I think we can sacrifice some HR's at the corner OF spot if we have Bogaerts manning short. We'd still have Ortiz, Middlebrooks/Cecchini, Salty and Napoli (or a comparable FA) at first that can hit HR's. And it's not like Ellsbury/Pedroia/Victorino/Nava/Carp/Gomes can't go deep either. Plus imagine an OF defense of JBJ/Ellsbury/Victorino.

[sk7326]

He's a plus defender in CF, with great baserunning skills, and good power numbers. He was a consistent 3 win player for the Rays. I think the contract was OK at the time.

 

Also 2 years younger than Ellsbury going on the market - Braves were buying 2 more years of peak/upside

[sk7326]

I would consider Ellsbury - I just think the years will be too rich for his age, especially if there are no team options. Bradley has more long term upside - although he probably won't put up a "2nd best player in the AL" sort of season. And just because THIS team can play an outfield without a ton of pop does not mean it's a good idea. Victorino has been good - but all of his value as a right fielder is from defense. If he loses a step (possible at his age) he becomes hard to play there.

[marklmw]

I would consider Ellsbury - I just think the years will be too rich for his age, especially if there are no team options. Bradley has more long term upside - although he probably won't put up a "2nd best player in the AL" sort of season. And just because THIS team can play an outfield without a ton of pop does not mean it's a good idea. Victorino has been good - but all of his value as a right fielder is from defense. If he loses a step (possible at his age) he becomes hard to play there.

 

I would imagine that Ellsbury can produce 30 HR's at age 35.

[dupree]

I would imagine that Ellsbury can produce 30 HR's at age 35.

 

Wow thats bold. Not sure if he would put up those #s at 35the but it would be nice to see. I think Ells will get his 5 - 100 million contract if not more if a 6th year is thrown in there.

 

As far as letting Ells walk and plugging JBJ into CF goes i could see that. But who is gonna play LF. Ok say the Sox just fill that with a platoon from within. I honestly dont see that happening. I think a power hitter will be brought in for LF. So no matter if we let Ells walk a similar contract will be given out. JBJ is an elite prospect but as far as putting up Ells #s i dont see that happening. I think it would be better suited to just slide Ells over to LF while letting him stay at the top of the order and let JBJ hit somewhere near the bottom. And just have both of them in the lineup if we were talking about the best option for the team. If it meant letting ells walk and depending on JBJ i say no, keep ells and trade JBJ for pitching if we could only choose 1.

 

Its gonna be interesting how this year and offseason play out. I hope we keep both but my gut says it wont happen.

[Lord Snow]

Even including this horrible season (.188/.275/.307/.583) his career numbers are .250/.331/.413/.744

 

BJ's career numbers are inflated due to 2007 & 2008 when he was actually a good hitter. But that was 5 seasons ago now, and he was 4 seasons removed when he signed his contract.

 

His highest full-season OBP between 2009 and 2012 was .331, and went down to .298 last season. His high OPS was .752. The Braves just ignored his stat line and paid him for his raw tools, not how he utilizes them.

 

The days of having 2 corner outfielders who hit 25+ HRs are gone. The steroid era is over, it was something I think we all took for granted.

 

Now it seems like teams are lucky if they got 3 guys in the line-up capable of hitting 20+ homers. I mean look at this Red Sox team, I think we have 4 players with double digit home runs, and to the best of my knowledge Ortiz is the only guy with 20+, and its looking like we will finish the season like that.

 

Think back to '03-'04 I think the Sox had 7 guys with 20+ homers.

Edited August 8, 2013 by Lord Snow
to add '03

[sk7326]

BJ's career numbers are inflated due to 2007 & 2008 when he was actually a good hitter. But that was 5 seasons ago now, and he was 4 seasons removed when he signed his contract.

 

His highest full-season OBP between 2009 and 2012 was .331, and went down to .298 last season. His high OPS was .752. The Braves just ignored his stat line and paid him for his raw tools, not how he utilizes them.

 

The days of having 2 corner outfielders who hit 25+ HRs are gone. The steroid era is over, it was something I think we all took for granted.

 

Now it seems like teams are lucky if they got 3 guys in the line-up capable of hitting 20+ homers. I mean look at this Red Sox team, I think we have 4 players with double digit home runs, and to the best of my knowledge Ortiz is the only guy with 20+, and its looking like we will finish the season like that.

 

Last year's free agent push excepted, he has generally been a good "approach" guy at the plate (caught Josh Hamilton disease, trading walks for homeruns and strikeouts). The value in the free agent market was his age, and that he played a position that is hard to find. Braves are regretting the decision to effectively "trade" Bourn for Upton - but both high risk and Upton was the upside play. Neither have set the world on fire - though fly balls go to die when they are around.

[Lord Snow]

Last year's free agent push excepted, he has generally been a good "approach" guy at the plate (caught Josh Hamilton disease, trading walks for homeruns and strikeouts). The value in the free agent market was his age, and that he played a position that is hard to find. Braves are regretting the decision to effectively "trade" Bourn for Upton - but both high risk and Upton was the upside play. Neither have set the world on fire - though fly balls go to die when they are around.

 

Josh Hamilton was actually a good hitter with a good approach in 2012. Upton hasn't been one since 2008. It was just a bad move all around for Atlanta and they shouldn't be surprised it went this way, I'm not, and I thought the contract was horrendous when they gave it to him.

[sk7326]

Josh Hamilton was actually a good hitter with a good approach in 2012. Upton hasn't been one since 2008. It was just a bad move all around for Atlanta and they shouldn't be surprised it went this way, I'm not, and I thought the contract was horrendous when they gave it to him.

 

Hamilton's approach started to fail him towards the end of last year - and this year clearly. Upton has been a 3-win sort of player and young enough to be a little more - obviously things have worked out to your prophecy so far.