Ellsbury is en fuego!

[marklmw]

After a slow start to the season Ellsbury has come on strong since June.

Sporting an OPS of .894 in June with no HR's is no easy task.

then a OPS of .844 in July with only 4 HR's again no easy task.

Now comes August with 6 games in the bank an OPS of 1.122 with 2 HR's ... hopefully he is back to his 2011 form. All this while leading the league in SB's. Please do not tell me that he is not the Sox most valuable player.

[Orange Juiced]

Scott Boras is happy.

[marklmw]

Scott Boras is happy.

 

Not as happy as Ellsbury is. Ben should be offering 100m over 5 today.

[sk7326]

Not as happy as Ellsbury is. Ben should be offering 100m over 5 today.

 

Not with a 30 year old without a track record of durability. But he has been the Red Sox best position player this year - and he should get some MVP consideration (it's a two man race for the award, but Ellsbury should on some ballots). He has done all that he can to make himself a good case - and I think there is a decent chance SOMEBODY will offer him that "mistake" level of contract.

[Orange Juiced]

Not as happy as Ellsbury is. Ben should be offering 100m over 5 today.

 

Won't matter. Jacoby is going to go the free agent route.

[marklmw]

Not with a 30 year old without a track record of durability. But he has been the Red Sox best position player this year - and he should get some MVP consideration (it's a two man race for the award, but Ellsbury should on some ballots). He has done all that he can to make himself a good case - and I think there is a decent chance SOMEBODY will offer him that "mistake" level of contract.

You talk about durability but people forget that he was run over by a truck (Beltre). I think when he slows down his power numbers will increase. I would take a chance for 5 years. He is a good teammate, does not get in trouble off the field, sells lots of jerseys, we spent 100m on Dice K for 5 years. Ben offers the contract and let Ellsbury turn it down ... do it now and make the fan base happy.

[redsoxrules]

Not with a 30 year old without a track record of durability. But he has been the Red Sox best position player this year - and he should get some MVP consideration (it's a two man race for the award, but Ellsbury should on some ballots). He has done all that he can to make himself a good case - and I think there is a decent chance SOMEBODY will offer him that "mistake" level of contract.

 

I hope your not talking about AL MVP because he's def not in that race at this point.

[sk7326]

You talk about durability but people forget that he was run over by a truck (Beltre). I think when he slows down his power numbers will increase. I would take a chance for 5 years. He is a good teammate, does not get in trouble off the field, sells lots of jerseys, we spent 100m on Dice K for 5 years. Ben offers the contract and let Ellsbury turn it down ... do it now and make the fan base happy.

 

I suspect the fans are actually relatively ok with moving to Jackie Bradley who has flashed promise and a full 7 years younger. I like Ellsbury and can argue that if he could churn out 5 seasons like this - that is an $18-20M a year guy easily. But heading into his age 30-35 years, where he might have to move to an outfield corner, I am not sure the bat will play up enough to justify that sort of salary.

[sk7326]

I hope your not talking about AL MVP because he's def not in that race at this point.

 

I am. The AL MVP race is really between Trout and Cabrera again (closer this year than last although Trout has a better chance of actually being voted) with Chris Davis attracting those who genuflect at the HR-RBI altar. Ellsbury has been one of the best dozen or so players in the American League this year. Each voter has to fill out 10 names in the MVP ballot - he absolutely deserves to be named on a ballot that size. Might only end up something like 9th or 10th in the voting - but his season has absolutely justified that level of consideration.

[mvp 78]

How did I know that the 5/100 talking point be brought up after a 2HR night.

[marklmw]

I am. The AL MVP race is really between Trout and Cabrera again (closer this year than last although Trout has a better chance of actually being voted) with Chris Davis attracting those who genuflect at the HR-RBI altar. Ellsbury has been one of the best dozen or so players in the American League this year. Each voter has to fill out 10 names in the MVP ballot - he absolutely deserves to be named on a ballot that size. Might only end up something like 9th or 10th in the voting - but his season has absolutely justified that level of consideration.

No doubt that AL MVP will be going to either Trout or Cabrera. After that Ellsbury is right in the mix. I do not think that many Sox fans appreciate what a great lead off hitter Ellsbury is. Not many bat 300 or have as good OBP. He has stolen 40 bases and caught only 3 times. What if he was batting 3rd with Papi hitting behind him. Sign Ellsbury and trade JBJ for pitching.

[SCM33]

Ellsbury will not be here next season. Time to start getting over it now....

 

I am dead against any contract to someone 30 years old for 100 million........havent we learned from our, and everyone elses mistakes?

[marklmw]

Ellsbury will not be here next season. Time to start getting over it now....

 

I am dead against any contract to someone 30 years old for 100 million........havent we learned from our, and everyone elses mistakes?

 

But you do not mind paying Pedroia 14+ M when he is 36, 37, & 38? Ellsbury was underpaid in 2011 by a lot.

[marklmw]

How did I know that the 5/100 talking point be brought up after a 2HR night.

 

Maybe you can argue that Ellsbury should only be paid 18m per, what difference does the extra 2m mean anyway. We are going to be paying Pedroia 14m when he is 38.

[mvp 78]

Why do I care if Ells was underpaid in 2011? Does that means he needs to be overpaid now?

 

He's not a $20M guy.

[mvp 78]

Maybe you can argue that Ellsbury should only be paid 18m per, what difference does the extra 2m mean anyway. We are going to be paying Pedroia 14m when he is 38.

 

Pedroia is a better all around player than Ells and is a team leader. All Ells does is provide speed and hit for average. His defense is not that good and he'll never get that 2011 power back.

 

$2M is important for luxury tax purposes. $2M over 5 years is $10M. I'm sure the Sox could find something better to do with that money than just give it away or set it on fire.

[SCM33]

Pedroia is a better all around player than Ells and is a team leader. All Ells does is provide speed and hit for average. His defense is not that good and he'll never get that 2011 power back.

 

$2M is important for luxury tax purposes. $2M over 5 years is $10M. I'm sure the Sox could find something better to do with that money than just give it away or set it on fire.

 

Pedroia also earned his contract and loves playing in Boston.

 

Ellsbury's main asset will diminish with age......plus, what has Ellsbury done to earn such a huge contract?

[mvp 78]

Pedroia also earned his contract and loves playing in Boston.

 

Ellsbury's main asset will diminish with age......plus, what has Ellsbury done to earn such a huge contract?

 

He hit 2HRs in last night's game against the 'Stros! He went from 2nd to home on a passed ball once! He won people free tacos!

[sk7326]

But you do not mind paying Pedroia 14+ M when he is 36, 37, & 38? Ellsbury was underpaid in 2011 by a lot.

 

Given the way baseball salaries inflate - $14M a year for Pedroia in 6 years will be value as long has he is still a 2-3 win sort of player.

 

Ellsbury has been a better all around player than Pedroia this year - that much is true. (gets on base a bit less, but hitting for more power, stealing bases for what its worth, defense is excellent also at a premium position) But Pedroia produced more over his last contract - more track record - and he got re-upped for much more favorable price. He will be able to stay at 2B for the duration of that contract most likely (that is just my own opinion of course) - Ellsbury has to count on his speed holding up or else he has to move to LF or RF, where his power goes from "pretty good" to "not good enough".

[dupree]

No doubt that AL MVP will be going to either Trout or Cabrera. After that Ellsbury is right in the mix. I do not think that many Sox fans appreciate what a great lead off hitter Ellsbury is. Not many bat 300 or have as good OBP. He has stolen 40 bases and caught only 3 times. What if he was batting 3rd with Papi hitting behind him. Sign Ellsbury and trade JBJ for pitching.

 

I agree with this 100%. JBJ will never be what Ells is. So resign Ells and let someone get burnt on JBJ and bring us back more pitching.

[marklmw]

I agree with this 100%. JBJ will never be what Ells is. So resign Ells and let someone get burnt on JBJ and bring us back more pitching.

 

I like the way your think Depree ... probably because I place a premium on Ellsbury.

[Orange Juiced]

No doubt that AL MVP will be going to either Trout or Cabrera. After that Ellsbury is right in the mix. I do not think that many Sox fans appreciate what a great lead off hitter Ellsbury is. Not many bat 300 or have as good OBP. He has stolen 40 bases and caught only 3 times. What if he was batting 3rd with Papi hitting behind him. Sign Ellsbury and trade JBJ for pitching.

 

I wonder what JBJ would fetch in terms of a starting pitcher. Remember, here's what the Sox will have for next year:

 

Lester (assuming they pick up his option)

Buchholz

Peavy

Lackey

Doubront

Dempster

- - - - -

Webster

DeLaRosa

Workman

Ranaudo

Barnes

 

So there's already somewhat of a logjam at SP. You'd likely have to get rid of two of the top six guys, and then add this mystery pitcher.

 

Here are the potential free agent starting pitchers (* indicates an option):

 

Starting Pitchers

Bronson Arroyo

Scott Baker

Erik Bedard

Nick Blackburn *

A.J. Burnett

Chris Capuano *

Chris Carpenter

Bruce Chen

Bartolo Colon

Aaron Cook

Jorge De La Rosa

Scott Feldman

Gavin Floyd

Jeff Francis

Armando Galarraga

Jon Garland

Matt Garza

Roy Halladay *

Jason Hammel

Aaron Harang *

Rich Harden

Dan Haren

Roberto Hernandez

Tim Hudson

Phil Hughes

Ubaldo Jimenez *

Josh Johnson

Jeff Karstens

Hiroki Kuroda

John Lannan

Jon Lester *

Colby Lewis

Ted Lilly

Tim Lincecum

Derek Lowe

Paul Maholm

Shaun Marcum

Jason Marquis

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Brett Myers *

Ricky Nolasco

Mike Pelfrey

Andy Pettitte

Wandy Rodriguez *

Jonathan Sanchez

Ervin Santana

Johan Santana *

Joe Saunders *

James Shields *

Tim Stauffer

Jason Vargas

Ryan Vogelsong *

Edinson Volquez

Tsuyoshi Wada *

Chien-Ming Wang

Chris Young

Barry Zito

 

Not exactly an inspiring list, IMO. Garza would be fine, but he's probably wicked expensive.

 

So maybe you're on to something. Maybe the best way to spend the resources is with a trade that looks something like this:

 

The Sox deal JBJ, Dempster, and Ranaudo to San Francisco, and get back Madison Bumgarner. They are losing Pence after this season, and JBJ would be a great fit for them. Dempster fills the pitching hole, at least temporarily. Ranaudo steps in for them when Dempster's contract is up after the 2014 season. For the Sox, they get a premier lefty starting pitcher at really good money (under contract through 2019 if the Sox use the options in 2018 and 2019, for just $55.75 million - an average of just over $9 mil per season). The rotation would be Bumgarner, Buchholz, Lester, Peavy, Lackey, and Doubront. Then they sign Ellsbury to a 5-year deal at about $20 mil per season. So they get a top-flight SP and a top-flight CF for a total of about $29 million per season. That's pretty reasonable, IMO.

[mvp 78]

Bumgarner? For that? No f'n way. Instead of Dempster, you'd have to include Owens, Barnes AND someone else at least. SF has no reason to trade him.

[sk7326]

Well, first - that list is not that bad. If you trade Bradley straight up - if we want to go down this road - you are probably hoping for a full-season horse, #3/#4 type. That is, not a guy who is any sort of ace, but whose value lies in being able to crank out 30 average-above average starts a season. (basically - Jon Lester) As far as free agency goes - the Sox will take a long hard look at James Shields for sure. He is not a true ace, but definitely high quality and has a history in the division. There are also a lot of other guys (Jorge De La Rosa, Tim Hudson, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson) who have various issues but are very much worth kicking the tires on for Dempster-level money.

 

For the trade for Bumgarner - he would require more. He is cheap, under control, young, good and the Giants have championship dreams - even if they did not fulfill them this season - and cash. (typical Giants season - if their pitching is good enough to squeeze their putrid offense into October they become very dangerous, otherwise you get a season like this)

 

If you are going to trade for a pitcher - might as well aim much higher - like King Felix, and for a guy like THAT you start discussing Boegarts.

[marklmw]

I agree with this 100%. JBJ will never be what Ells is. So resign Ells and let someone get burnt on JBJ and bring us back more pitching.

 

I like the way your think Depree ... probably because I place a premium on Ellsbury.

[BornToRun]

I'd rather take a chance on JBJ and his absurd plate discipline than pay out the ass to keep Ellsbury.

[marklmw]

Well, first - that list is not that bad. If you trade Bradley straight up - if we want to go down this road - you are probably hoping for a full-season horse, #3/#4 type. That is, not a guy who is any sort of ace, but whose value lies in being able to crank out 30 average-above average starts a season. (basically - Jon Lester) As far as free agency goes - the Sox will take a long hard look at James Shields for sure. He is not a true ace, but definitely high quality and has a history in the division. There are also a lot of other guys (Jorge De La Rosa, Tim Hudson, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson) who have various issues but are very much worth kicking the tires on for Dempster-level money.

 

For the trade for Bumgarner - he would require more. He is cheap, under control, young, good and the Giants have championship dreams - even if they did not fulfill them this season - and cash. (typical Giants season - if their pitching is good enough to squeeze their putrid offense into October they become very dangerous, otherwise you get a season like this)

 

If you are going to trade for a pitcher - might as well aim much higher - like King Felix, and for a guy like THAT you start discussing Boegarts.

 

Bogaerts should be untouchable right about now. King Felix will not leave Seattle ... rumors are that he is a vampire and needs to play where the sun does not shine.

[Orange Juiced]

The Sox are in a very interesting spot. They are in very good shape money-wise. They are already one of the best teams in baseball. They are loaded with starting pitching. They have a TON of quality players either ready for the majors or on the cusp, coming out of their farm system. They have the resources (both money and prospects) to go get pretty much whatever they need.

[Orange Juiced]

Well, first - that list is not that bad. If you trade Bradley straight up - if we want to go down this road - you are probably hoping for a full-season horse, #3/#4 type. That is, not a guy who is any sort of ace, but whose value lies in being able to crank out 30 average-above average starts a season. (basically - Jon Lester) As far as free agency goes - the Sox will take a long hard look at James Shields for sure. He is not a true ace, but definitely high quality and has a history in the division. There are also a lot of other guys (Jorge De La Rosa, Tim Hudson, Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson) who have various issues but are very much worth kicking the tires on for Dempster-level money.

 

For the trade for Bumgarner - he would require more. He is cheap, under control, young, good and the Giants have championship dreams - even if they did not fulfill them this season - and cash. (typical Giants season - if their pitching is good enough to squeeze their putrid offense into October they become very dangerous, otherwise you get a season like this)

 

If you are going to trade for a pitcher - might as well aim much higher - like King Felix, and for a guy like THAT you start discussing Boegarts.

 

Then you forget Felix and still go after Bumgarner. Maybe you need to add in a Webster as well. But the Sox *do* have the pieces to make that kind of a deal.

[marklmw]

Bumgarner? For that? No f'n way. Instead of Dempster, you'd have to include Owens, Barnes AND someone else at least. SF has no reason to trade him.

 

I would deal Barnes and Owens and Middlebrooks for Bumgarner and a pitching prospect.