Lord Snow
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Everything posted by Lord Snow
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Wow. Just wow. I look at these trades and they don't make any sense. Lester was given away for a .750 OPS bat and a shite draft choice. Resigning him or the compensation pick would have been far better unless Cespedes recaptures his 2012 form (doubtful). And this Cardinals deal, what? It's almost like Ben made up his mind to sell, no good offers came in, and decided to jettison the team anyway. I'd rather have Lackey for the rest of this year and next year than Craig and Joe Kelly, a guy who at best is a 4th or 5th starter...
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Are the Yankees crazy? $17 million per year to a catcher? And a full no trade clause? The Yankees can have him! I wouldn't want to touch McCann for anything near that money, and I'm glad the Sox didn't. Although it's making me wish they made a qualifying offer to Saltalamacchia, $14M for 1 season of Salty or a draft pick would be looking like a steal right now. 3-years $26M to Carlos Ruiz. 5-years $85M to McCann. I'm predicting Salty goes to a new team for 3-years $45M or 4-years $50M. I'd consider it a small victory for the Sox if they could bring him back for 3/30, but I don't see that happening in this market.
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2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?
Lord Snow replied to Lord Snow's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The problem is relief pitcher is such a volatile position. Consistency is incredibly rare. There are only a handful of guys who have an excellent career. It's why Papelbon got the big contract, and perhaps why it was a mistake to let him go. He was somebody you could count on year in, and year out, to get the job done. Cherington's strategy has worked well this season. Shop the free agent scrap heap and see who sticks. Hanrahan came cheap so I don't lose sleep over his injury. Tazawa should get the next crack at the closer's role. He is young enough, and thus far consistent enough, to take the role and run with it for a few years. -
A successful career as a AA skipper.
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The 2013 Red Sox were able to get rid of the deadwood from the 2012 Sox. That team had a bunch of negativity surrounding it starting with the hiring of Bobby Valentine. John Farrell was always the right man for the job if it wasn't going to be Francona, we got our man in 2013. Beckett had worn out his welcome. Crawford's contract debacle was just an enormous waste of resources that was always on everyone's mind. In truth this team started to get better after last year's trade. Cherington brought in a lot of stop-gap style pieces, which is fine considering the strength of the Sox's farm system. Stephen Drew has no place on this team in the future with the imminent arrival of Xander. 3rd base will be manned by Will Middlebrooks or Garin Cecchini sooner rather than later, and in an ideal world one will go to 1B or LF, and one to 3B. Cecchini is going to be a BBA top 25 prospect next year if he finishes off 2013 how he's started it, maybe even top 10.
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2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?
Lord Snow replied to Lord Snow's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Yeah because WAR is the #1 factor in what makes a player great *rolls eyes*. Based on knowledge of past baseball signings, I figure that is what Salty will sign for. Nothing really jumps off the page at you when it comes to his game. Last year the 25 bombs did but that was 2012 and wasn't repeated in 2013. If he hit 25 homers last year, and 25 this year, you can bet a team would get over-anxious and throw big bucks at him but that isn't going to happen. Something like 3-4 years and $20-30M makes sense. -
Please explain how you determined Drew is having a "quietly very good year", and is an A-. Do you have any numbers to support this or do you just enjoy his smile?
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Drew is making about 50% more than Napoli. That counts for something. Gomes isn't a full-time player. Napoli is slumping in August but was good in July with .860 OPS. I see Napoli finishing the season with about an .800 OPS and 85 RBI, and that's worth $6M or whatever the Sox paid for him.
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2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?
Lord Snow replied to Lord Snow's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I don't think anybody is suggesting offering him $15M a year, nor do I think any team will. Salty is a $5-8M per year player. I'd be very surprised if somebody offers him $10M/year. And the Sox would be wise to extend him before McCann signs and all the teams who miss out on him turn their attention to Salty. -
2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?
Lord Snow replied to Lord Snow's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I certainly do. But the Red Sox have Xander Bogaerts a heartbeat away, all indications are that he should be worth at least a .780 OPS, and hopefully much better. Why anybody wants to sign up Drew beyond 2013 defies logic. There is simply no need. You used a similar argument that I used for Salty. The difference is the Red Sox don't have a top 10 prospect who plays catcher with half a season at AAA under his belt. -
I'll use my own rating system because some players have played as I expected but still not well. Gomes: C- (.785 OPS from a left-fielder, .729 OPS vs LHP (what he was bought for)) Drew: C+ (.781 OPS) Koji: A+ (no explanation needed) Napoli: B (he's delivering about as expected, but not as hoped) Victorino: C (.749 OPS for $13 million, no thanks) Dempster: D (NL Pitcher. Ben should have read the scouting reports.)
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2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?
Lord Snow replied to Lord Snow's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Half of the people on this board have a woody for Stephen Drew and are putting him on a pedestal. WHY? .255/.340/.441/.781 and people want this locked in for 3-4 years? WHAT?! Drew would probably accept a qualifying offer because the best he can hope to is a 1-3 year deal and $20M guaranteed, max. We've got Xander Bogaerts breathing down his neck, and all indications are that he is going to be a great player. Pedroia has 2B. Middlebrooks or Cecchini will get 3B. There is no spot on this team for Drew. -
2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?
Lord Snow replied to Lord Snow's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I agree about Abreu. What I've read about him, albeit it hasn't been much, he seems like a worthwhile investment. $60M to a more established 26-year-old Cuban "prospect" can prove a better investment than $60M to a 31-year-old major leaguer. I also prefer Kendrys Morales to Napoli at 1B. Morales has much more upside, is younger, and doesn't have that degenerative hip condition. And he's putting together a pretty strong season in Seattle of all places, slot him in Fenway and his SLG probably goes up 50 points. -
2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?
Lord Snow replied to Lord Snow's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I totally disagree. Salty's defense is a bit lacking, but it's passable. In general, you don't lose games because your catcher can't throw out 40% of would-be base stealers. Catcher is a weak position defensively throughout baseball, its what makes it such a premium position. There are a very select few who are good hitters and good defenders, it's usually one of the other. Salty is a somewhere in between, he calls a good game, is below average defensively, and above average offensively. I think Salty is a great fit in the Red Sox clubhouse, and from what I can tell he handles the pitching staff well. Don't forget how onerous catcher transitions can be, it took Salty a full year to call a good game and for the pitchers to get used to him. Furthermore, Salty has the 4th best OPS in baseball of catchers with at least 300 ABs at .779. He's not elite by any standards, but he's above average for a catcher. He's 4th in doubles at his position, and 6th in home runs. So I don't know how you can say he can't "hit or hit for power". By any measure he is one the better hitting catchers and has been for the last few years. I've gotten used to Salty, his pace and his defense were tough to take at first, but as the pitchers adapted to him I became more comfortable with him too. I'd be pleased if the Sox sign him for 3-4 years. We know he can handle Boston which is another good aspect of Salty's character and an aspect of his game that should not be overlooked. Somebody like McCann may appear to be a better option but can he handle the pressure cooker environment that comes with signing a rich deal and playing in Boston? Can he handle the AL? The AL East? -
2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?
Lord Snow replied to Lord Snow's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Bogaerts is the best prospect we have had since Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury. Both of those guys had extremely high ceilings. I don't see any scenario in which the Sox can trade him. The guy plays a premium position and is a great hitter with a great plate approach. I can see him being a Dustin Pedroia type 2 years from now. -
2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?
Lord Snow replied to Lord Snow's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I still don't understand the love of Stanton. He has had exactly one exceptional year, and a very good year before that, but 2013 has been very bland. I know he is still only 23 but doesn't that make him sort of a prospect, then? Why trade a bunch of upper-tier prospects for another upper tier prospect? It's not like this guy is Miguel Cabrera Part II, a player that consistently got better each year in the league. Stanton has power, yes, but thus far has lacked consistency, and health. I am very against selling the farm to acquire him. I could live with sending Jackie Bradley, Garin Cecchini or Will Middlebrooks, and a bunch of lesser prospects. But definitely not Bogaerts, and no more than 2 of the Sox's top 10 young players. -
2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?
Lord Snow replied to Lord Snow's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Choo is a consistent hitter. His career .386 OBP and .850 OPS are sexy as hell and fit in well on any team. Of the bunch you named the only one I'm truly optimistic about moving forward in Daniel Nava. We can probably expect more of the same from Victorino, but how long can you stomach a .730 OPS out of a corner outfielder, a position where an .800 OPS should be the minimum passing grade. I've got faith in Jackie Bradley as well. I like the idea of an outfield made up of some combination of Ellsbury, Choo, Bradley, and Nava. -
2013-2014 Off-Season: Who stays? Who goes?
Lord Snow replied to Lord Snow's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I don't understand the Stanton hype, and I definitely don't understand it for 4 or 5 top prospects. The NL is AAAA and the NL East is one of the weakest divisions in all of baseball. Furthermore, Stanton is hitting a meager .241 this year. I'll pass. -
They really don't need to pick anyone up. Just pray for no more injuries. Tazawa, Uehara, and Breslow should pitch 7th, 8th, and 9th innings in save situations, exclusively.
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What do you guys think? Key free agents being Jacoby Ellsbury, Koji Uehara, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Mike Napoli (let me know if I missed anyone significant). What I would like to see happen: Jacoby Ellsbury re-signed for 6-years $90M, or less. Koji Uehara re-signed for 1-year $10M + $10M vesting/club option. Jarrod Saltalamacchia re-signed for 3-years $22.5M Joel Hanrahan re-signed at league minimum. Let Mike Napoli walk. Let Stephen Drew walk. Sign Kendrys Morales 3-years $45M. Sign Shin-Soo Choo 4-years $60M. Defense: 1B: Morales 2B: Pedroia 3B: Middlebrooks SS: Bogaerts LF: Choo CF: Ellsbury RF: Victorino DH: Ortiz
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The Teixeira signing by the Yankees was a good one and viewed very favorably at the time. He wasn't somebody you expected to fall off. I think he was 28, never had a major injury, played great defense, and always posted consistently elite numbers. That is the kind of player you're okay giving $20M/year to.
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How much longer will the Sox play without a legit 3B?
Lord Snow replied to marklmw's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I think it has a lot to do with Bogaerts. He has been better than Middlebrooks this year. They probably don't want to wreck Middlebrooks' confidence by calling him and letting him play 3rd for a week, and then demoting him in favor of Bogaerts if he struggles. Or they can leave Middlebrooks in the minors until September and call up Bogaerts until then. I think that would be the safer play. -
I wouldn't be surprised to see Jacoby sign a 1-year incentive laden deal (something like 1-year $10M + $10M in incentives) if Boras and Ells don't get the money they want. If Jacoby can show some consistency (i.e. 2 good years back-to-back) his stock will go way up in the 2014 off-season. But on the flip side if he misses a ton of time his stock will go way down. All in all, I think Jacoby is going to sign for 6-7 years and $80-110M. I could stomach the Sox paying him towards the lower end of that spectrum.
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Josh Hamilton was actually a good hitter with a good approach in 2012. Upton hasn't been one since 2008. It was just a bad move all around for Atlanta and they shouldn't be surprised it went this way, I'm not, and I thought the contract was horrendous when they gave it to him.
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Letting Middlebrooks rot in Pawtucket is no good. I don't understand that strategy. I think we ruined Daniel Bard doing the same thing. You can't call somebody up, give them a starting job, for a year and then demote them long-term. It's got to be frustrating and annoying for them, which is why I think they struggle in the minors. It's not like Middlebrooks forgot how to hit.

