Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[BSN07]

Think about it:

 

CF- Ellsbury

2B-Pedroia

DH- Ortiz

1B- Napoli

RF- Swisher

3B-WMB

LF- Gomes/Kalish

C-Ross/Lavarnway

SS-Ciriaco/Iglesias

 

Rotation:

 

Haren

Lester

Marcum

Bucholz

Lackey/Doubront/Morales

 

Bullpen:

 

We have a heap of options there, won't even bother.

 

That looks like a contender to me. And one that would keep its farm system intact and would be under the lux tax for 2014.

 

I like Haren, but #1? yeeeesh I'm not sure. If haren is on the team I think Farrell will make Lester head of the rotation.

 

btw sorry if your list was not an indication of the order you would put them in.

[Plumpamania]

CF- Ellsbury

2B-Pedroia

DH- Ortiz

1B- Napoli

RF- Swisher

3B-WMB

LF- Gomes/Kalish

C-Ross/Lavarnway

SS-Ciriaco/Iglesias

 

That line up is half too old and overpaid and bad.

[User Name]

CF- Ellsbury

2B-Pedroia

DH- Ortiz

1B- Napoli

RF- Swisher

3B-WMB

LF- Gomes/Kalish

C-Ross/Lavarnway

SS-Ciriaco/Iglesias

 

That line up is half too old and overpaid and bad.

 

A bit old? Yes. Overpaid? Depends on your definition of overpaid. Bad? Not at all.

[User Name]

I like Haren, but #1? yeeeesh I'm not sure. If haren is on the team I think Farrell will make Lester head of the rotation.

 

btw sorry if your list was not an indication of the order you would put them in.

 

Not that i would put them in, but that their projections for next year would likely have them.

[BSN07]

Not that i would put them in, but that their projections for next year would likely have them.

 

Ok, Haren may very well end up being the better starter. But considering the politics, I can't see Farrell unseating Lester as the #1 opening day SP for Haren.

[Plumpamania]

CF- Ellsbury - One Rock Solid Season.

2B-Pedroia - Amazing.

DH- Ortiz - Old, but powerful.

1B- Napoli - Hit 7/8 last year for Texas and you want him at clean up?

RF- Swisher - Above average stick.

3B-WMB - Too early to tell.

LF- Gomes/Kalish - Could be interesting.

C-Ross/Lavarnway - Scary.

SS-Ciriaco/Iglesias - HAHAHAHAHAHA.

[a700hitter]

CF- Ellsbury - One Rock Solid Season.

2B-Pedroia - Amazing.

DH- Ortiz - Old, but powerful.

1B- Napoli - Hit 7/8 last year for Texas and you want him at clean up?

RF- Swisher - Above average stick.

3B-WMB - Too early to tell.

LF- Gomes/Kalish - Could be interesting.

C-Ross/Lavarnway - Scary.

SS-Ciriaco/Iglesias - HAHAHAHAHAHA.

I agree with all your comments on the lineup, but I am not sure what you mean by scary when referring to Ross/Lavarnway. Do you mean scary good or bad?

[User Name]

 

CF- Ellsbury - One Rock Solid Season.

2B-Pedroia - Amazing.

DH- Ortiz - Old, but powerful.

1B- Napoli - Hit 7/8 last year for Texas and you want him at clean up?

RF- Swisher - Above average stick.

3B-WMB - Too early to tell.

LF- Gomes/Kalish - Could be interesting.

C-Ross/Lavarnway - Scary.

SS-Ciriaco/Iglesias - HAHAHAHAHAHA.

 

Ellsbury: Still the prototypical lead off hitter.

 

Pedroia: No need to explain.

 

Ortiz: Old but still an elite hitter and signed short term.

 

Napoli: His hitting 7th in Texas is a testament to their depth, not Napoli's production. This is a guy a year removed from a 1.000 OPS/30 HR season and who should be able to improve on last year's numbers (being healthy, not catching and Fenway can only help) and get him closer to his 2011 numbers. He's a legit power threat with on-base skills.

 

Swisher: 25 HR's/.360 OBP/.850 OPS like clockwork.

 

WMB: His stick shouldn't be a question. He'll go through growing pains, but the kid can hit.

 

Gomes/Kalish: No question about Gomes, who can destroy LHP, but Kalish's health is always a question.

 

Ross/Lavarnway: Ross is decent, but Lavarnway did nothing but hit in the minors and deserves a chance to prove he can stick in the Majors.

 

Iglesias/Ciriaco: They could sign a SS, but the rest of the lineup could hide either of them.

[Plumpamania]

.700, The Ross/Lavarnway to me could go eitherway as 'scary'. Lavarnway has always been advised to have above average MLB power and a good eye. Last year he was horrid, but it was a small sample size. David Ross has long been one of the best back up backstops in the game. If he were to continue his stick (Ross) and Lavarnway is an average MLB backstop, that spot is scary as most teams have pathetic catching stocks.

 

And UN: .227/.343/.469/.812 - Is that a line you want for your clean up hitter in the AL East?

[User Name]

.700, The Ross/Lavarnway to me could go eitherway as 'scary'. Lavarnway has always been advised to have above average MLB power and a good eye. Last year he was horrid, but it was a small sample size. David Ross has long been one of the best back up backstops in the game. If he were to continue his stick (Ross) and Lavarnway is an average MLB backstop, that spot is scary as most teams have pathetic catching stocks.

 

And UN: .227/.343/.469/.812 - Is that a line you want for your clean up hitter in the AL East?

 

Would you like .320 /.414 /.631 /1.046 from yours? Because that's his line from 2011.

 

Let's assume he settles right at the middle. That would be production i'd want from my cleanup hitter.

[Plumpamania]

Or let's take his 162 game average: .259/.356/.507/.863,

 

That's not meeting in the middle, but taking the truth. He's not a clean up hitter. And he's getting older and coming off of a horrible season for a power hitter in a great power hitter's park.

[Bellhorn04]

Or let's take his 162 game average: .259/.356/.507/.863,

 

That's not meeting in the middle, but taking the truth. He's not a clean up hitter. And he's getting older and coming off of a horrible season for a power hitter in a great power hitter's park.

 

Average OPS for AL cleanup hitters in 2012 - .811

[User Name]

Or let's take his 162 game average: .259/.356/.507/.863,

 

That's not meeting in the middle, but taking the truth. He's not a clean up hitter. And he's getting older and coming off of a horrible season for a power hitter in a great power hitter's park.

 

Isn't calculating an average basically "meeting at the middle" of a player's numbers?

 

The guy had a myriad maladies last season and did not have a very good offensive season. Yet he still clubbed over 20 homers and got on base at a very good clip compared to his batting average.

 

My theory here is that playing him at 1B would reduce the wear and tear on him and he'd post numbers much closer to 2011 than 2012.

 

Now i ask you: Why does the argument have to be about what position he has in the lineup? And more importantly, with that roster, who would be a better option?

 

Would you like this lineup better?

 

CF- Ellsbury

RF-Swisher

2B-Pedroia

DH-Ortiz

1B-Napoli

3B-WMB

LF-Gomes/Kalish

C-Ross/Lavarnway

SS-Iglesias/Ciriaco

 

They could also acquire a SS who could hit 2nd (Stephen Drew? Although i don't like him) and hit the catcher 9th:

 

CF-Ellsbury

SS-Drew

2B-Pedroia

DH-Ortiz

1B-Napoli

RD-Swisher

3B-WMB

LF-Gomes/Kalish

C-Ross/Lavarnway

 

In either of these scenarios, you have your two absolutely best, no question mark hitters hitting 3/4. And you'd still be significantly under the lux tax for 2014.

[User Name]

Average OPS for AL cleanup hitters in 2012 - .811

 

But the bad teams are skewing the numbers. I understand where he's coming from, hence my above post.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Couple things:

 

First off, Napoli put up 30 HR in 113 games in 2011, and 23 in 108 games in 2012. His 162 game average over the past 2 seasons gives him 40 HR and a .931 OPS.

 

Playing 1B on a regular basis not only will allow him to play more games and increase counting stats like HR, it will also keep him healthier than having to catch 65-70 games a season.

 

Second, even in his down year he posted a .345 OBP, and the two year average is a .379 OBP. He grinds out at bats, seeing 4.43 pitches per plate appearance last year, second only to AJ Ellis at 4.44.

 

I completely agree with UN that he is likely going to give you right smack in the middle of 2011 and 2012. That puts him at .275/.379/.552. Give him 155 games and he will smack you 35-40 HR, especially with his lofted, pull heavy swing.

 

He's an excellent option to hit in the 4 or 5 slot for the Sox, and having him hitting behind Ortiz will give Ortiz a lot of protection, especially against LHP, who Ortiz hit to a staggering .985 OPS in 2012 and .989 OPS in 2011.

 

I am 110% all for Napoli. He is, and should be, the Sox top target for 1B and top positional target this offseason.

[seabeachfred]

I am being selfish about Swisher. I hate the guy so much that I do not want to be conflicted seeing him in a Red Sox uniform. Truth be told, I would prefer one of three if anybody and that one would be Swisher. Keep Napoli and keep Ross. For the life of me I don't know what i am going to do if that jerk ends up in a Red Sox uniform. I am really going to have to take one for the team if that happens.

 

Jung, I can't agree with you on Swisher but I do know how you feel. It is exactly the same way I would feel if Cherington crapped out on getting a first baseman and resigned James baLoney to another contract. I despise that guy like maybe only you can imagine. He simply sucks and brings zilch to the clubhouse.

[RedSoxNC84]

I think they sign Steven Drew, then the Iglesias/Ciriaco platoon won't even be a question.

[Bellhorn04]

It almost feels like we're moving toward a consensus here. A legit first baseman, a legit right fielder, maybe Drew for shortstop. Sign a pitcher like Haren on a one-year deal. Sign somebody like Brian Wilson. If they do those things I don't think there will be too much to complain about to start the season with.

[redsoxfan3]

Or let's take his 162 game average: .259/.356/.507/.863,

 

That's not meeting in the middle, but taking the truth. He's not a clean up hitter. And he's getting older and coming off of a horrible season for a power hitter in a great power hitter's park.

 

I love that lineup. It allows us to be competitive without getting rid of prospects. If Napoli hits 30 HR's, 80 RBI's, and around career averages in terms of OPS, OBP, and AVG, then I do not think that there will be many people upset with him batting cleanup. The big three we are still targeting are Swisher, Napoli, and Ross. Signing Napoli and either Ross or Swisher would be awesome, but signing all three would give us more depth. Swisher is a switch hitter. Ross is similar to Gomes. Gomes in LF and Ross in RF against lefties would be a plus. Swisher's splits last year were not that much different, so he could play against lefties or righties. If we had to, we could start Ross or Kalish in LF against righties. Kalish is an ideal platoon with Gomes because he is a LHH. Nava is also a switch hitter, so he might not be a bad platoon in LF. There are plenty of options if we sign all three. There is a lot of versatility. Not to mention Swisher can also play 1B. That would not be a bad option, because Napoli is better in his career against lefties and Swisher could occasionally fill-in against righties. We also have Jerry Sands who could surprise a few people this Spring. He can play 1B and the corner OF positions. We potentially have a platoon of Gomes with Nava or Kalish in LF (with Ross playing there when needed), Swisher and Ross platooning in RF, and Napoli the primary 1B (with Swisher playing if needed). I think we would be in an ideal situation. If two of Sands, Nava, and Kalish have to go to AAA, then so be it. That just gives us more depth in the minors. We can also sign Stephen Drew to compete at SS. It is easier said than done by signing all three, but it gives us something to work towards.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Lucchino was on MLB on XM today with Bowden, and it sounds like the Sox are very much in on Hamilton, but likely wont go more than 5 years.

 

But 5/120-125 would likely get it done. Perhaps with a team option and a 10mm buyout.

[redsoxfan3]

It almost feels like we're moving toward a consensus here. A legit first baseman, a legit right fielder, maybe Drew for shortstop. Sign a pitcher like Haren on a one-year deal. Sign somebody like Brian Wilson. If they do those things I don't think there will be too much to complain about to start the season with.

 

Ideally, I hope we sign two starters. We would have the two starters with Lester and Buchholz, allowing us to have Doubront, Lackey, and Morales all competing for the 5th spot. Doubront could be a trade chip. Lackey will be hard to shop, but Morales already has plenty of experience in the pen if he does not win the job. Odds are we only sign one starter because we have five guys that the FO already sees as capable of starting. I do hope it is two to make the rotation more competitive and to add depth.

 

I am all for signing Brian Wilson. He has roots in New England and would probably love to play in Boston. That would be a nice addition to the pen. We have a lot of bullpen pieces already.

 

I do agree that you cannot go wrong with signing Napoli to play 1B, signing one of or both of Swisher and Ross to play RF, signing Wilson to improve our pen, signing Drew to compete at SS, and signing one or two SP's. This is a big if, but if we can do all of this during the offseason, then I think we will have a competitive team come Spring Training. BC has a lot of work to do. With Winter Meetings starting tomorrow, he better get to work. Rumors are that Swisher and Napoli are fairly close to choosing a destination.

[Plumpamania]

Please don't. Not another Lucchino move..

[redsoxfan3]

Please don't. Not another Lucchino move..

 

With Hamilton capable of playing all three OF positions, this is not a bad idea at all on a short-term contract. He is a big bat that would be an instant impact in the lineup. I am not a fan of another big contract, but on a short-term deal I am not against it.

 

Also, Lucchino already does a lot of the GM work. That is publicly known, so he is almost certain to have some sort of say with any of the deals that we make.

[User Name]

Please don't. Not another Lucchino move..

 

What are you talking about? Another albatross contract is exactly what we need so the team doesn't lose fan interest.

[jung]

Here we go again. Lets combine two years and extrapolate to 162 games, a number of games that Mike Napoli has never sniffed before. The max number of games he has ever played is 140 and that was an outlier. Most games other than that, 114 games.

 

While he can play 1st and Catch and has also DHed, you would think that teams would find a way to use him in more games if he was either A) that good or that durable. Napoli should certainly last longer at 1st base than behind the plate.

 

While splitting the dif between 2012 and 2011 sounds like a nice compromise, Napoli's career numbers are much closer to his 2012 than his 2011. 2011 is another outlier.

 

He is a nice ball player but I think he is a trap. I would not overpay for Mike Napoli although dollars would likely be easier to give up than years. Maybe the Sox are not all that high on any of the three guys being tossed around. They clearly have not come up with a deal for any of the three that they have accepted. Maybe have not even offered one yet.

 

It is not at all clear to me that there is a plan other than generate the most revenue at the lowest cost. As for not wanting another LL deal....IMO, they are all LL deals. I don't think there is a single deal the Sox do at this stage of the game, big or small that LL does not sign off on.

[User Name]

Napoli's career averages: .259 /.356 /.507 .863, 126 OPS+

 

There's no need to extrapolate anything. The guy has always had massive power. An .863 career OPS and .507 career SLG are nothing to sneeze at. Put him on 1st where he should be able to play a lot more games than he could as a catcher and watch the fireworks at Fenway.

[jung]

Anybody is fine if they are not a ridiculous overpay. I would not be paying Mike Napoli superstar money. If they don't do that....its as good as doing anything else at 1st base. Depends on what they do or don't around such a deal and what they pay for him.

[SoxFanForsyth]

Anybody is fine if they are not a ridiculous overpay. I would not be paying Mike Napoli superstar money. If they don't do that....its as good as doing anything else at 1st base. Depends on what they do or don't around such a deal and what they pay for him.

 

Napoli will be getting between 10-12mm annually. Not superstar money by any means, and not an overpay for a guy with his talent.

[mvp 78]

What are you talking about? Another albatross contract is exactly what we need so the team doesn't lose fan interest.

 

C'mon, a 5/$125M contract isn't that bad. If that's all we need to do to get TS posters to buy tickets, it must be done! Who cares about the future? We need a year in/year out 88-90 win team that can't make the playoffs. At least they'll be competitive, but not so good as to prevent 12 months of bitchiness!

[a700hitter]

C'mon, a 5/$125M contract isn't that bad. If that's all we need to do to get TS posters to buy tickets, it must be done! Who cares about the future? We need a year in/year out 88-90 win team that can't make the playoffs. At least they'll be competitive, but not so good as to prevent 12 months of bitchiness!

If the GM needs to spend $125-150 million on one guy to get this team back to winning 88 games, he is a bigger idiot than I gave him credit for being.