Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[Orange Juiced]

Would you pay $10 million for a back end starter?

 

Nope. I think he has the potential to be a #2 though, but the problem is that the financial cost involved in him getting there probably is prohibitive.

 

Though, consider Lester. He became a front-end starter at age 24. Porcello might be able to be that this year, yes, I think that's possible. But that's an expensive risk because if he doesn't get there, he's going to cost a lot.

 

But I think the Sox should do some homework on him.

[Dojji]

OJ, you've effectively described Andrew Miller. Who at the right price has matured into a fine power lefty reliever, but I'm not paying $10M for that. It takes the thing that ultimately saved miller -- a bullpen role -- effectively out of the picture.

 

If Miller had managed to mature properly as a starter the sky was the limit. Unfortunately the command and consistency never came together. Now he's in his role and I'd want a good reason to take him out of it. Which is fine in Miller's case because he's not expensive, but if we're talking about picking up a guy who would be, I want more guarantees that he'll actually be effective. I'd be fine with taking the same flier on the same guy Miller was, but I'm not paying big resources, either cashwise or prospect wise, for the privilege.

[SoxSport]

Their only real hope of upgrading their starters is the prospects. Those are the guys who have the upside to get to levels at the top of the rotation.Guys like Webster and DeLaRosa, and others coming. That level of pitching is priced sky high in the market.

 

Right now, except for Dempster (3.4 ERA, but 5+ in Texas) the Red Sox have no starters with ERAs below 4.0 last year. Lester is a 3+ ERA pitcher, and may well be back there this year. The rest figure to be around 4-4.50. That isn't good enough. The FO looks at their starters with rose colored glasses. It also is somewhat boxed in with holdovers. No place for prospects with a real chance to upgrade the rotation.

The old stoppers like Schilling and Pedro aren't there.

[Dojji]

As a confirmed Buchholz skeptic, you're selling him a little short. He's had great years before. He needs to be more consistent year to year but there's no reason Buchholz can't turn it on. My issue with the arrangement is more that the team is desperately counting on him to do it when he MIGHT not.

[BSN07]

Their only real hope of upgrading their starters is the prospects. Those are the guys who have the upside to get to levels at the top of the rotation.Guys like Webster and DeLaRosa, and others coming. That level of pitching is priced sky high in the market.

 

Right now, except for Dempster (3.4 ERA, but 5+ in Texas) the Red Sox have no starters with ERAs below 4.0 last year. Lester is a 3+ ERA pitcher, and may well be back there this year. The rest figure to be around 4-4.50. That isn't good enough. The FO looks at their starters with rose colored glasses. It also is somewhat boxed in with holdovers. No place for prospects with a real chance to upgrade the rotation.

The old stoppers like Schilling and Pedro aren't there.

 

Not that big of a deal since none of them are ready to take over rotation spots anyways. In 1-2 years when they are ready, there will most likely be spots and/or spots could be made easier at that time.

 

You also have to consider innings limits. Neither DLR or Webster have logged enough innings to be counted on for 180+ IP(typical SP) right out of the gate. If they started in Boston both would probably be maxed out or hit the proverbial wall by July-August and will most likely be shut down. And if they aren't shut down they will be making a jump in IP that will raise red flags for possible future injuries, something I'm guessing the Sox won't do. Especially since DLR hasn't been back a full season from TJS.

[Dojji]

Agreed. Until they prove otherwise, all of de la Rosa, Webster and Barns are more than a year away from pitching in the big leagues, and probably more than that in terms of actually coming into their own.

 

And the closest guy to being "ready" is the guy you absolutely go kinda careful with. Blowing out de la Rosa's arm is not an option.

[Bellhorn04]

Their only real hope of upgrading their starters is the prospects. Those are the guys who have the upside to get to levels at the top of the rotation.Guys like Webster and DeLaRosa, and others coming. That level of pitching is priced sky high in the market.

 

Right now, except for Dempster (3.4 ERA, but 5+ in Texas) the Red Sox have no starters with ERAs below 4.0 last year. Lester is a 3+ ERA pitcher, and may well be back there this year. The rest figure to be around 4-4.50. That isn't good enough. The FO looks at their starters with rose colored glasses. It also is somewhat boxed in with holdovers. No place for prospects with a real chance to upgrade the rotation.

The old stoppers like Schilling and Pedro aren't there.

 

Doubront has only had one full season. There are a lot of things about Doubront that remind me of Lester in his early development. Lester was also a nibbler who racked up high pitch counts until he got it together. And look at his ERA his first two part seasons.

[jung]

I would love to see Ruby use a more consistent arm angle as well. I assume that will come in time. Until he does, he will be vulnerable to things like telegraphing certain pitches and he may also be something of an injury concern if some of those oddball angles cause undue stress to his throwing arm. He not only seems to use different angles to throw different pitches but sometimes appears to use different arm angles to throw the same pitch. Seems to catch himself at some point and at least goes back to using the same arm angle to throw something like a FB. IMO, inconsistency here is one of the marks of a young and developing pitcher.

[mvp 78]

So if he uses different arm angles for the same pitch, it's not really telegraphing to the batter what pitch is going to be thrown. There are many successful pitchers who have used multiple arm agels. Using the same angel for every pitch over the course of a 120 pitch outing isn't really an issue. The only issue is if he's messing up his pitch location.

[jacksonianmarch]

The arm angles need to be with all pitches. If he throws all fastballs over the top and all sliders out of the 3/4 slot, he's going to get smacked.

[SoxFanForsyth]

The arm angles need to be with all pitches. If he throws all fastballs over the top and all sliders out of the 3/4 slot, he's going to get smacked.

 

MVP said that if he changes arm angles with the same pitch, it's not a big deal. And if he does, he can throw multiple pitches out of multiple arm slots so long as there isn't one arm slot where he throws one exclusive pitch. Otherwise the hitters will not get an edge.

[Dojji]

Lots of pitchers use different arm angles to create a different look. Nothing particularly unusual about it. It's one weapon in some pitchers' arsenals to make it harder to pick them up.

[jung]

But if you watched him the other day, he was very inconsistent with his pitches during periods when his arm angle was sort of all over the map. Also the velo on his FB suffers unless he is above 3/4....pretty much over the top. When he is above 3/4, that is when he starts to nail the radar gun at 95+. When he is not over the top, that FB gets to be a 91-92 mph pitch. At least during that outing he was also way up in the and out of the strike zone when his arm dropped down. That is not unusual for a pitcher that needs to keep coming over the top.

 

So in his case, I don't believe changing arm angles is at all done with a purpose and his a hindrance when happening to him.

[Palodios]

Don't be surprised to see Lars Anderson playing some first base in Yankee Stadium this year