Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[BSN07]

Not can....will. Last year, only nine teams even broke the 100 mill mark. Salaries aren't going to inflate enough for mid-market teams this year to bridge the gap. The Sox at $120 mill in payroll for 2013 would be closer to top-5 than top-10.

Ya that's what I figured. People think top 5 payroll means 160-170M.

The Mets are looking for catching help, and are talking about shopping R.A. Dickey, any thoughts?

No, I would not give anything of note for a 38 year old knuckler. If any fan base understands the ebb and flow of a knuckler, the Red Sox do. No way is it smart to buy a Knuckler at his peak value. I think the mets are going to be overall disappointed in the offers that come along.

[example1]

The Mets are looking for catching help, and are talking about shopping R.A. Dickey, any thoughts?

 

Presuming that means trading Lavarnway, probably not. Dickey was tremendous last year though, so if he's got 3-4 more years of that in him it wouldn't be a bad thing. I would just much prefer that they move Salty, who I am already tired of watching.

[a700hitter]

More from Cherington yesterday. People can debate whether he is being patient or indecisive. Will other GM's beat him to the punch or avoid bad contracts?

“There are things we know we could do right now. Things we’re not ready to do right now. Things we’re choosing not to do right now,” he said. “I still see the weekend before the winter meetings as pretty early in the offseason. There’s a lot of time before pitchers report and plenty of time to do stuff.”

[SoxSport]

More from Cherington yesterday. People can debate whether he is being patient or indecisive. Will other GM's beat him to the punch or avoid bad contracts?

 

Cherington will have plenty of help at the meetings. Lucchino and Henry are looking over his shoulder, and he has James and a few others in the FO to steer him straight. The big FA decisions will be made by Lucchino/Henry--how many years being the principle deal killer.

My view is if they don't loosen up on the years, they aren't going to sign anybody who will make a short term difference. And this is a short term team. You save with the prospects you develop and cost control, but you have to spend filling the short term holes with free agents, unless you want to give up good players or prospects in trades. And that includes giving the extra year or two--or somebody else will. No bargains in free agents. All the contracts are bad--thanks to people like Boras, Marvin Miller and greedy owners.

[User Name]

No bargains in free agents. All the contracts are bad--thanks to people like Boras, Marvin Miller and greedy owners.

 

In principle, this is true, but i have to disagree with certain parts. Under certain conditions (guys looking to recoup value, middle-tier talent with upside and certain imports). It's very possible to find free agent bargains: Guys like Adrian Beltre when he signed with the Sox; Joe Nathan last year with the Rangers; Hideki Okajima; Russell Martin (who was coming off a bad year offensively, but C is a D first position, and that was not in question); Wei-yin Chen and Bartolo Colon even with the PED bust.

 

The constant here is risk. If you take risks on players with questions marks, you create the possibility of finding significant production for insignificant cost. In big FA contracts you usually pay for "certainty" in production, or the lack of risk, when ironically, there is no such thing as "certainty" or "lack of risk" in baseball.

[BSN07]

Bowden tweet: RedSox appear to be within striking distance of Swisher,Napoli & CRoss but in all 3 scenarios not giving extra yr that’s holding them back

Heyman: The Red Sox are in contact with all three players, and all are considered in play. The Red Sox seek a first baseman and two outfielders, and it appears this is their top triumvirate.

[Station 13]

Quote:

Bowden tweet: RedSox appear to be within striking distance of Swisher,Napoli & CRoss but in all 3 scenarios not giving extra yr that’s holding them back

Heyman: The Red Sox are in contact with all three players, and all are considered in play. The Red Sox seek a first baseman and two outfielders, and it appears this is their top triumvirate.

 

And nothing on pitching.

[jung]

Sox appear to be desperately trying to find their way to the middle of the pack. I don't see anything in those three players that move this team anywhere really. Better but.... meh. Napoli does nothing for me. Swisher does nothing for me. I guess would take Ross back at a reasonable price.

[BSN07]

And nothing on pitching.

 

Why is it so hard to believe that these are more pressing players that have to be dealt with now then the SP's they are going to be more likely to be signing this year? I think this shows they are obviously not in on Grienke and Sanchez. And the guys after that aren't signing until those guys sign. Should they go after the one years while everyone else pursues the offensive pieces just because they need pitching more?

[jung]

All three of those players are not far off of each other value wise or interest wise. Once one of them falls to somebody the other teams will focus on the two remaining in all likelihood. Sox better focus on the one they want cause they will not likely get all three.

[a700hitter]

Sox appear to be desperately trying to find their way to the middle of the pack. I don't see anything in those three players that move this team anywhere really. Better but.... meh. Napoli does nothing for me. Swisher does nothing for me. I guess would take Ross back at a reasonable price.

I don't think these 3 will add much in the aggreegate.

[BSN07]

I don't think these 3 will add much in the aggreegate.

 

Then what exactly is the team supposed to do? You've been banging the "make a move cherries" drum non stop. Those 3 players represent some of the best talent available. Or is Hamilton the only FA that can add to the aggregate?

[seabeachfred]

And there it is.......very true.....the Sox have boxed themselves into a corner. No tickie...no shirtie

 

The "plan" is built around a smallish ballpark with the brass adding seating a little at a time as need be but never enough to prevent them from putting on the squeeze and charging ever high ticket prices.

 

But the number of people willing to pay such prices and even companies looking to impress their clientele starts to go the wrong way unless the Sox are playing exciting, competitive ball.....or.....unless they have a few ballplayers of interest that together form the core of an interesting team with an eye toward the immediate future as in next year.

 

True Jung, but from what I've been seeing of late I get the impression that ownership and their front office people either 1, don't know what to do; 2, don't give a s*** what happens anymore; or 3, are preparing to throw in the towel and put the team up for sale if the fans are going to accept the crappy teams they are now putting on the field.

 

Some may keep stubbornly disagreeing but if something is done or accomplished at the Winter Meeting and all we hear is the same old laying the ground work s***, those still giving Henry and Co. their full support should start reading the tea leaves.

[a700hitter]

Then what exactly is the team supposed to do? You've been banging the "make a move cherries" drum non stop. Those 3 players represent some of the best talent available. Or is Hamilton the only FA that can add to the aggregate?

I have been beating the drum that I think he will make moves, but does that men that I have to like the moves? I don't see the point in getting all 3 of these guys. They are not terrible moves, but I don't think they will improve the team much for the cost.

[BSN07]

I have been beating the drum that I think he will make moves, but does that men that I have to like the moves? I don't see the point in getting all 3 of these guys. They are not terrible moves, but I don't think they will improve the team much for the cost.

 

You want them to make moves, but not on these guys. Who exactly will you be happy with upon signing?

[seabeachfred]

I think it would be an extremely foolish move for the FO to accept another last place 90+ loss season to get better draft position. So, much work goes into establishing a strong valuable franchise that it would be pure folly to willingly send out an inferior product. The current management set the bar very high on all fronts. They have the highest ticket prices in baseball plus they have Numerous other lucrative income streams. The fuel for this engine is fan interest. This is not Minnesota that has specials for 4 tickets, 4 hot dogs, 4 beers and parking for $40. As you said, people are not going to spend $200+ to go to Fenway to see a 90 + loss team again. They just will not. I just can't see any business willingly damaging it's franchise and watching its revenue streams take big hits for a couple of years in hopes that they discover the next great generational talent. That's just not reasonable. Do you know how long it will take them to recoup the lost revenue. Years.

 

Each Red Sox fan must take stock of such a situation and make the tough choices and for me it has become very easy. I will NOT go on a Red Sox Destination Travel Junket next season. It costs me between $2,300-2,700 for every trip, taking in hotel, games, spending money, air fare, and Red Sox gear. If enough people take the same tack in their own set of circumstances, either the owner will wake up or sell the team. When I think about it, for the first time I definitely don't give a rat's ass whether I see Fenway next year or not. I'll watch them on my computer and on ESPN when they are on there. It is one thing to root hard for the team and feel like crap when they lose but to lose a wad of money while seeing them do it isn't worth the pain. I had flown in for five Opening Home Series, ending in 2011, but like others want to get their money's worth. Seeing the pig of the team we had this past season it just wasn't worth the anguish---and Henry better start seeing that like yesterday or sell out and get the hell out of town.

[BSN07]

Each Red Sox fan must take stock of such a situation and make the tough choices and for me it has become very easy. I will NOT go on a Red Sox Destination Travel Junket next season. It costs me between $2,300-2,700 for every trip, taking in hotel, games, spending money, air fare, and Red Sox gear. If enough people take the same tack in their own set of circumstances, either the owner will wake up or sell the team. When I think about it, for the first time I definitely don't give a rat's ass whether I see Fenway next year or not. I'll watch them on my computer and on ESPN when they are on there. It is one thing to root hard for the team and feel like crap when they lose but to lose a wad of money while seeing them do it isn't worth the pain. I had flown in for five Opening Home Series, ending in 2011, but like others want to get their money's worth. Seeing the pig of the team we had this past season it just wasn't worth the anguish---and Henry better start seeing that like yesterday or sell out and get the hell out of town.

 

My advice, take that money and go balls out on some super big HD out the ying yang TV :thumbsup:

[seabeachfred]

The guys we can lay our hands on this off season would be guys that could fit somewhere in the middle of the rotation if they succeed. So in that sense I guess I would agree the BC.

 

The only thing I can pick out of that which might be revealing is that it sounds to me like Lester is staying. Frankly IMO they can't move Lester for some bat prospect regardless of what he might someday be.

 

I do think they are gong to be forced into Hamilton though. They need to field an interesting team with an eye to competing for the division in 2014 and Hamilton would give them one of the elements that a team seemingly must have these days....two big bats anchoring the middle of the lineup. If they let the kids play this year, sign LaRoche for 1st, take Hamilton and grab up some of the short contract guys that might come in and improve the pitching, they end up with an interesting team worth watching in 2013 and then they end up with LaRoche, Hamilton, Ortiz, WMB, Pedey the guys that work out this year, plus the arriving killer B's for 2014. That also gives them all of this year and the 2013-2014 off season to fix the starting pitching.

 

It would seem to me about the only way the Sox can continue to make the formula that they have used to achieve financial success through 2013 and 2014. Even with Hamilton and LaRoche and Ells for one more year the starting pitching is so uninspiring at this point that I still think they are likely competing for a WC and not the division just yet. However they surely should be competing for the division again in 2014.

 

To lefthanded Jung and therefore IMO doomed to defeat. We need RH power, not an overabundance of lefthanded hitters. Too damn many good southpaw pitchers in our division. Again my opinion.

[seabeachfred]

More from Cherington yesterday. People can debate whether he is being patient or indecisive. Will other GM's beat him to the punch or avoid bad contracts?

 

You don't have to guess what I think he is Ted besides being a pathetic excuse for a GM. He is a tentative, risk averse, gutless bum who when he is finally fired it will come out from others and maybe even from him that his fear of making a mistake and pulling the trigger to get the team up to speed was his undoing, and undoing is right because he won't get near another GM job.

[seabeachfred]

More from Cherington yesterday. People can debate whether he is being patient or indecisive. Will other GM's beat him to the punch or avoid bad contracts?

 

You don't have to guess what I think he is Ted besides being a pathetic excuse for a GM. He is a tentative, risk averse, gutless bum who when he is finally fired it will come out from others and maybe even from him that his fear of making a mistake and pulling the trigger to get the team up to speed was his undoing, and undoing is right because he won't get near another GM job.

[a700hitter]

You want them to make moves, but not on these guys. Who exactly will you be happy with upon signing?

 

I'm okay with 2 of the 3, but the 3 one would be overkill and not add much. We need a first baseman, so Napoli or swisher would fill the bill, and each can play another position. We don't need them bot if Ross is re-signed to play the OF. I have posted my wish list several times. We need a first baseman, an outfielder, but most of all we need pitching.

[jung]

I don't think a LH 1st baseman is to much from the left when we just had a LH 1st baseman

[BSN07]

I'm okay with 2 of the 3, but the 3 one would be overkill and not add much. We need a first baseman, so Napoli or swisher would fill the bill, and each can play another position. We don't need them bot if Ross is re-signed to play the OF. I have posted my wish list several times. We need a first baseman, an outfielder, but most of all we need pitching.

 

Ok I can see your issue with all 3. To be honest if I had the choice it be Swisher and Napoli.

[User Name]

Swisher (4 years/48)/Napoli(4 years/52)/Haren(1/18)/Marcum(1/16)./offseason. And only two of the contracts are relatively long term, but both players can play multiple positions and possess skill sets that age relatively well.

 

All for 59 million dollars, with 34 of those going off the books next year.

[a700hitter]

Ok I can see your issue with all 3. To be honest if I had the choice it be Swisher and Napoli.

That's probably the 2 that I would go with.

[jung]

I am being selfish about Swisher. I hate the guy so much that I do not want to be conflicted seeing him in a Red Sox uniform. Truth be told, I would prefer one of three if anybody and that one would be Swisher. Keep Napoli and keep Ross. For the life of me I don't know what i am going to do if that jerk ends up in a Red Sox uniform. I am really going to have to take one for the team if that happens.

[Plumpamania]

We need Wil Myers.

[jung]

I will take Macum also...maybe Haren too.

[Plumpamania]

Those would be nice as well. Those 3 and let's call it an offseason.

[User Name]

I will take Macum also...maybe Haren too.

 

Think about it:

 

CF- Ellsbury

2B-Pedroia

DH- Ortiz

1B- Napoli

RF- Swisher

3B-WMB

LF- Gomes/Kalish

C-Ross/Lavarnway

SS-Ciriaco/Iglesias

 

Rotation:

 

Haren

Lester

Marcum

Bucholz

Lackey/Doubront/Morales

 

Bullpen:

 

We have a heap of options there, won't even bother.

 

That looks like a contender to me. And one that would keep its farm system intact and would be under the lux tax for 2014.