Red Sox 2012/2013 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

If the GM needs to spend $125-150 million on one guy to get this team back to winning 88 games, he is a bigger idiot than I gave him credit for being.

 

Just Hamilton would net them 74 wins probably. I'm just saying that all these 3-4 year contracts that people want signed (Ross/Napoli/Swisher) aren't putting the Sox over the top. Without a real pitching upgrade, these signings are useless.

[jung]

I really don't know what to expect of this team based on that BC comment. BC will need more than all three of those everyday ball players and DRoss to get to 88 wins.

[jung]

Ya beat me to it MVP

[User Name]

Just Hamilton would net them 74 wins probably. I'm just saying that all these 3-4 year contracts that people want signed (Ross/Napoli/Swisher) aren't putting the Sox over the top. Without a real pitching upgrade, these signings are useless.

 

That's why you sign Haren and Marcum to one year deals, which is reportedly what they're looking for to rebuild value. Signing offense does nothing if the rotation doesn't improve.

[mvp 78]

That's why you sign Haren and Marcum to one year deals, which is reportedly what they're looking for to rebuild value. Signing offense does nothing if the rotation doesn't improve.

 

I like Marcum for his AL East experience. Haren could have good upside. Jackson probably wants a 3 year deal.

[jung]

As my earlier post indicates, if one it would be Marcum for me as well. If two then probably Haren although there are a couple other guys out there.

[User Name]

They have enough money for both on one year deals, as well as two of Swisher/Napoli/Ross on longer term deals without going over the lux tax for 2014.

[seabeachfred]

It almost feels like we're moving toward a consensus here. A legit first baseman, a legit right fielder, maybe Drew for shortstop. Sign a pitcher like Haren on a one-year deal. Sign somebody like Brian Wilson. If they do those things I don't think there will be too much to complain about to start the season with.

 

I would like an extra starting pitcher to go along with Haren and a first baseman, RF and SS would make most of us happy here, but I don't think it's going to go that way. After hearing some of the s*** Cherington mouthed t he past 24 hours I really think he is coming home from the WM empty handed. The guy is a total weenie and would rather do nothing than take a chance and make a move. Pathetic is too kind a word for that useless bum.

[Palodios]

Napoli: His hitting 7th in Texas is a testament to their depth, not Napoli's production. This is a guy a year removed from a 1.000 OPS/30 HR season and who should be able to improve on last year's numbers (being healthy, not catching and Fenway can only help) and get him closer to his 2011 numbers. He's a legit power threat with on-base skills.

 

 

I made this exact same argument, and your response was that there are too many ifs involved. Change your mind?

[a700hitter]

Just Hamilton would net them 74 wins probably. I'm just saying that all these 3-4 year contracts that people want signed (Ross/Napoli/Swisher) aren't putting the Sox over the top. Without a real pitching upgrade, these signings are useless.

You don't need to convince me of the need for pitching.

[User Name]

I made this exact same argument, and your response was that there are too many ifs involved. Change your mind?

 

Read my above post: Signing Napoli does nothing if they don't improve the pitching first.

 

IF they improve the rotation, signing two of Napoli/Ross/Swisher (who all have their own ifs mind you) makes sense.

[jung]

Well something sounds wrong in those recent BC comments. Most disconcerting is that BC has been the most accurate barometer of the management guys that talk. What BC has said in the past has generally turned out to mean something. You cannot tell whether snake LL is about to bite you or curl up around your ankles and cuddle you....yikes what a thought...what a mental picture.

 

Anyway I think you really cannot separate BC out for criticism. He is a nice target but I think that might be his most effective role in the Red Sox org. In fact if there is an org chart posted down there I would bet there is a bullseye over BC's name instead of a picture.

[Palodios]

Read my above post: Signing Napoli does nothing if they don't improve the pitching first.

 

IF they improve the rotation, signing two of Napoli/Ross/Swisher (who all have their own ifs mind you) makes sense.

 

I'm referring to a post from a few weeks ago specific to Napoli, not related to pitching.

[a700hitter]

Rich Harden, Brandon Webb To Pitch In 2013

By Zach Links [December 2, 2012 at 8:32pm CST]

 

Pitchers Rich Harden and Brandon Webb both plan to return to pitching in 2013, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Harden missed the 2012 season after undergoing shoulder surgery while Webb has not thrown a pitch in the majors since 2009.

 

Harden's agent agent Brett Laurvick told Morosi that there is "a lot of interest" from clubs in his client. The right-hander spent the 2011 season with the Athletics and posted a 5.12 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 15 starts. The 31-year-old has struggled with injuries in the past, having missed the bulk of the 2006 and '07 seasons.

 

Webb, 33, has dealt with multiple shoulder injuries over the last few years. The 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner signed a one-year, $3MM contract with the Rangers prior to the 2011 season but never made it to the mound. For his career, Webb owns a 3.27 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.

^ Dumpster Diving candidates. Cherries is probably already on the phone with them.

[User Name]

I'm referring to a post from a few weeks ago specific to Napoli, not related to pitching.

 

I believe in that instance we were arguing about Napoli vs. Hamilton, not Napoli himself.

 

If the Sox had the money to sign Hamilton + another offensive piece plus pitching i'd rather have him than Napoli, but someone's going to give him 7 years apparently and in that case, it better not be the Red Sox.

[Palodios]

^ Dumpster Diving candidates. Cherries is probably already on the phone with them.

 

When it comes to players as extremely talented as Brandon Webb, there is always the temptation to deny all logic and reason and give him a 1/1 contract.

[a700hitter]

When it comes to players as extremely talented as Brandon Webb, there is always the temptation to deny all logic and reason and give him a 1/1 contract.

As a depth option, I would agree, but not as part of Plan A.

[a700hitter]

I guess that today was a travel day for the GM's. The Winter meetings start tomorrow. Hopefully, there will be lots of moves to make things interesting.

[jung]

I don't think Hamilton will get 7. In the first place there are not that many teams that can even afford him. I just don't think there are enough teams out there in the running to drive him to 7 years. I suspect the teams with money are making an effort to cut into these screwy long term deals. We shall see.

[DocHolliday]

When it comes to players as extremely talented as Brandon Webb, there is always the temptation to deny all logic and reason and give him a 1/1 contract.

 

Even with his talent, I'd only want to sign a guy like Webb if he's part of the "deep depth" that LL and BC keep referring to (ie, the depth options for the depth pitchers). Webb hasn't pitched in the majors since 2009, when he was 30 years old (he would be 34 in May of 2013). He had TJ surgery in 2010 and then was signed by the Rangers as a "depth" option for 2011, only to not sniff the majors at all.

 

As we've seen over the past couple of seasons, this team doesn't currently have the talent nor the health to afford the "dumpster diving" options they've looked to in the past for slots 4-5, let alone the 6-7 depth options that always find their way into the 1-5 slots at some point. Webb is certainly one name among many, and represents a reasonable gamble, but only for an 8-10 option going into ST. He would have to prove he was healthy AND capable of getting hitters out to be considered for a spot starter/long to middle relief bullpen type of role. In Webb's case, his injury history, age, and time away from the game, he can't be relied on for 100+ innings demanded from the typical starter.

[Spitball]

I don't think Hamilton will get 7. In the first place there are not that many teams that can even afford him. I just don't think there are enough teams out there in the running to drive him to 7 years. I suspect the teams with money are making an effort to cut into these screwy long term deals. We shall see.

 

I believe Hamilton might be lucky to fend off rumors and concerns to get a much lower than expected contract.

 

http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/10/06/4315633/rangers-are-baseballs-latest-choke.html#storylink=cpy

 

Then there's the ongoing roster decisions.

 

No, Josh Hamilton is no longer a decision.

 

Asked this week if there was any chance of re-signing Hamilton, one club official said, "not even if he wants to play here for free next season."

 

Even so, it'd be best to wait it out. Let every one cool down over the pop-up in Oakland, the verbal dust-up with Washington in the dugout following the pop-up, and now the pathetic, disinterested 0 for 4 Friday night, then see what the free-agency money will bring for Hamilton.

 

Never say never on a great-but-weird talent.

 

However, even the fans, usually very generous with the players, had had enough of Ham on Friday night. The only loud boos for a team that deserved plenty of them were reserved for Josh after another strikeout to end the eighth inning.

 

Josh had four at-bats, three with runners on, and saw eight pitches total. He struck out twice on three pitches, and rolled into a double play and grounded out while swinging at the first pitch. No clue. No hope at the plate.

 

But if Hamilton has worn out his welcome here, then the Rangers will have to add wood in the off-season to replace the Josh numbers, which are still huge.

[SoxSport]

I think the Red Sox are after Hamilton and they'll go up to 5 years to get him. The question is whether he wants to stay in Texas for less. For all the puritanical talk about Hamilton's personal issues, the guy to my knowledge has never missed any playing time in Texas because of them.

[DocHolliday]

I think the Red Sox are after Hamilton and they'll go up to 5 years to get him. The question is whether he wants to stay in Texas for less. For all the puritanical talk about Hamilton's personal issues, the guy to my knowledge has never missed any playing time in Texas because of them.

 

I think its highly doubtful that Hamilton will return with the Rangers. By all accounts, he was not the most respected player in the clubhouse and had his share of inconsistency on the field, as documented by many of the reports that came out the days after their season ended. But streaky is certainly who he is - the downward spiral he had at the end of 2012 was the polar opposite he had from about June 1 of 2010 to the end of the season. I remember going to a game that year in June and seeing his stat line at around a .240 average and .320 OBP. He finished the year batting .359 with a .411 OBP.

 

He's always been streaky - for good or bad. When things went badly for him this year, the Ranger fans really turned on him, even more so than they did to CJ Wilson at the end of last season. In a nutshell, Hamilton is a unanimous MVP when he is at his best, and a AAAA level player when he's at his worst. For me, that's too much variability to succeed in a baseball town like Boston, which is similarly the baseball mecca when things are going well, and what we witnessed the last calendar year when things aren't going well. Even with the protected 1st round pick, I'd be hesitant to pursue Hamilton, even if its for 3-4 years.

[jung]

I would be willing to bet Hamilton may well grind on players after awhile...one reason i would not want him on a longer than 4-5 year deal. As for the fans of the Rangers, I would bet that they are looking for scapegoats all over the place. They have had a couple years now when they Rangers have seemed to be the team to beat and have not gotten it done. Boy I would love to see those same fans suffer through what we went through or what the poor Cubies still go through.

[DocHolliday]

I would be willing to bet Hamilton may well grind on players after awhile...one reason i would not want him on a longer than 4-5 year deal. As for the fans of the Rangers, I would bet that they are looking for scapegoats all over the place. They have had a couple years now when they Rangers have seemed to be the team to beat and have not gotten it done. Boy I would love to see those same fans suffer through what we went through or what the poor Cubies still go through.

 

I wouldn't go so far to say that I'd like to see them suffer through things like generations of Sox fans did and generations of Cubs fans still are. After all, their team is still one of the few that have yet to win a world series. But for the vast majority of Ranger fans, a year round commitment to following baseball was unheard of until a couple of years ago (and arguably, was helped by the Cowboys prolonged demise). It will be interesting to see how much attention and commitment will remain if the post Hamilton/Wilson teams don't share the same type of success.

 

That being said, I still don't feel comfortable committing to Hamilton. He certainly will be tagged as a scapegoat by media and fans alike in Boston if he ends a season like he did this year and the Sox aren't the last team standing. We all certainly remember how he started the 2012 season. By the end of May, many critics were ready to anoint him the MVP of the AL. Sadly, if you look at his track record, he's consistently inconsistent (only his high points drastically overshadow his low points and paint extraordinary expectations for his future performance).

 

Perhaps a contributor to this notion could be his splits against the lower tier of pitching and the upper tier of pitching. I believe I saw on Clubhouse Confidential (a baseball analytics show that airs on MLB Network) last week that Hamilton had the highest difference in stats when he faced the lower tier "dumpster diving" level of pitchers compared to when he faced the upper tier (Verlander, Hernandez "aces" and most team's number 1's and 2's). Supposedly, the sample was over a 3 year time period, which seems to be enough PA to suggest some sort of reliable conclusion.

[DocHolliday]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/rays-close-to-signing-james-loney.html

 

No big surprise here, but another 1B option appears to be off the FA market. That being said, wasn't very impressed with Loney in his brief time in Boston.

 

Definitely hoping they sign Napoli to a 3 year $36 M range deal. Don't have to give up a draft pick and 1B vacancy is filled. Also gain a spot catcher, fill in DH, and RH power perfectly fit for Fenway.

[SoxFanForsyth]

I believe in that instance we were arguing about Napoli vs. Hamilton, not Napoli himself.

 

If the Sox had the money to sign Hamilton + another offensive piece plus pitching i'd rather have him than Napoli, but someone's going to give him 7 years apparently and in that case, it better not be the Red Sox.

 

I don't think anyone gives him 7. I think he gets 5 with an option.

 

And I also think the Sox have the $$ to spend on Hamilton (5/120-125) and Napoli (3/33), and still give Haren a deal as well.

 

I'm not sold on Marcum, I don't like soft tossers, but I would be interested in seeing if the Cubs would bite on a deal for Garza involving Salty.

 

Here's my breakdown:

Hamilton: $25mm AAV

Napoli: $11mm AAV

Haren: $13.5mm AAV

Garza: $12mm AAV

Salty: ($2.5mm AAV, 2012 numbers)

Brian Wilson: 1 Year/$7mm

 

Total: $66mm added

 

Total Payroll: $155-$160mm

 

Consider Haren and Garza will both be off the books next year, and will be replaced by Webster and De La Rosa. Ellsbury will likely be gone, replaced by Bradley Jr. That's about $35mm off the books alone right there, and they'll easily be able to stay under the lux tax.

[BSN07]

I don't think anyone gives him 7. I think he gets 5 with an option.

 

And I also think the Sox have the $$ to spend on Hamilton (5/120-125) and Napoli (3/33), and still give Haren a deal as well.

 

I'm not sold on Marcum, I don't like soft tossers, but I would be interested in seeing if the Cubs would bite on a deal for Garza involving Salty.

 

Here's my breakdown:

Hamilton: $25mm AAV

Napoli: $11mm AAV

Haren: $13.5mm AAV

Garza: $12mm AAV

Salty: ($2.5mm AAV, 2012 numbers)

Brian Wilson: 1 Year/$7mm

 

Total: $66mm added

 

Total Payroll: $155-$160mm

 

Consider Haren and Garza will both be off the books next year, and will be replaced by Webster and De La Rosa. Ellsbury will likely be gone, replaced by Bradley Jr. That's about $35mm off the books alone right there, and they'll easily be able to stay under the lux tax.

 

As far as spending money paths go it looks pretty good. They would have considerable money coming off the books next year, followed by Lester, Ortiz, Gomes, Ross. So the move would not hurt roster flexibility going forward either. As long as they don't give up anyone important to get Garza, I can't really find any reason to argue your proposal.

 

 

edit: Salty+Cecchini+Workman for Garza? I'm not a huge Garza fan but I wouldn't be upset over a package built similar to that to acquire him.

[SoxFanForsyth]

As far as spending money paths go it looks pretty good. They would have considerable money coming off the books next year, followed by Lester, Ortiz, Gomes, Ross. So the move would not hurt roster flexibility going forward either. As long as they don't give up anyone important to get Garza, I can't really find any reason to argue your proposal.

 

 

edit: Salty+Cecchini+Workman for Garza? I'm not a huge Garza fan but I wouldn't be upset over a package built similar to that to acquire him.

 

You could probably get Garza for just Cecchini + Workman to be honest. Maybe even just Cecchini, considering Garza didn't pitch since July 21, and he had a tough year outside of that.

 

Maybe Salty would be a better fit for a team that needs a C and is trying to win now, like the Mets for Niese, or to the ChiSox for Floyd (both would have to include more than just Salty).

 

The Sox certainly have flexibility. If they can sign Haren, they can make one of those 3 moves and have a solid rotation going into 2013, and a very solid lineup.

[BSN07]

CF Ellsbury

2B Pedroia

LF Hamilton

1B/3B Napoli/Middlebooks

DH Ortiz

3B/1B Middlebrooks/Napoli

RF Kalish/Gomes(gomes would be in LF, Hamilton in RF)

C Ross/Lavs

SS Iggy

 

Lester

Garza

Buchholz

Haren

Doubront

 

It be an interesting team. That said, it's a lot to pull off.