Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[BSN07]

Jason Bay is keeping his options open as he approaches free agency. In a chat with fans on WEEI.com, Bay said he is open-minded about where and when he signs.

 

"The window for my career doesn’t last forever," Bay said. "So limiting myself to one geographical spot really has no bearing on my decision.

 

Translation: " I want top dollar"

 

Good bye Bay. Thanks for what you did in Boston.

[BSN07]

I wouldn't be so sure about him signing with the Yankees. He just had a meeting with the Red Sox' date=' and apparently came away very impressed: "“Boston was one of the teams he was interested in from the start, and that certainly hasn’t changed,’’ said Chapman’s agent, Edwin Mejia. “It was a very good visit.’’" Also, for what it's worth his agent Mejia is a graduate of Boston Latin, UMass Amherst and Boston University law school. And don't forget the[b'] Red Sox recently signed Chapman's fellow countryman and former teammate, Jose Iglesias[/b].

 

Pretty sure he was the player that was mentioned as being at the meeting.

[jacksonianmarch]

For Hoyer this trade would basically be a draft. He can look at the Red Sox roster and pick virtually any prospects that he wants.

 

Who would you ask for and in what order?

 

I think a lot of teams would ask for Westmoreland and Kelly among that group, and one of the two of them first. You think I'm overvaluing them because I think they would the first ones requested in a trade despite not having played at a very high level. I think that's absurd. You can think of prospects you wouldn't have moved, even when they were 20 years old and when they hadn't played at the highest levels yet.

 

 

 

You are making two different arguments at different times:

 

1. He's at such a low level that he won't be relevant for a few years, though he is good.

2. He's too young for anyone to have any faith that he'll be good at all.

 

He didn't have 8 starts at High A because he was bad, he had them because the team is moving him through the levels just as they should. It doesn't mean he's going to be a bad player--it has no relevance to his actual value. He's progressing precisely according to plan for a 19 year old player with a $3m signing bonus.

 

Age 19 Seasons:

[table] player | Level | year | ERA | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | K/BB

Phil Hughes | A-A_adv| 2005 | 2.19 | 16 | 86.1 | 54 | 1 | 20 | 93 | 0.857 | 5.6 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 9.7 | 4.65

Casey Kelly | A-A_adv | 2009 | 2.08 | 17 | 95.0 | 65 | 4 | 16 | 74 | 0.853 | 6.2 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 4.63

[/table]

 

I would say those numbers are pretty similar. Hughes is one of the better pitching prospects in years. Kelly doesn't have to be one of the better pitching prospects in years to be a logical central piece in a deal, he just has to be potentially good.

 

 

 

 

So he has no value? You know that's not true.

 

 

 

I disagree. To Hoyer, Westmoreland or Kelly would be the center of the deal, and Anderson and Bowden "suffice for now talent". Without Kelly or Westmoreland the deal wouldn't happen, and they can't be replaced with "most" 19 or 20 year old prospects. They are both singular talents who stand out among their peers. That's why they got millions of dollars from a thorough team like the Red Sox. Their numbers have supported that decision, as has the Sox history of drafting and developing players.

 

So no, the deal will not be "sold" as centered around one of those guys, but it will in actuality be centered around them, as they are the guys who it would be hardest for Theo to part with. I bet Bowden and Anderson would go really quickly.

 

 

You are making an assumption that you know what Hoyer is thinking, and you are making a pretty strong leap of faith. Take a look at almost all of these big package for premium player deals. That is what I am going off of. The top 2 prospects are typically AA or higher, then there are typically 2 prospects with high ceilings who are a bit far away. Also, it is incredibly important to note where they are in the minor league system, especially with pitchers. Every season they spend in the minors is a chance to blow out an arm. This is the basis of the oft-used abbreviation in prospect circles, TINSTAAPP. (There is no such thing as a pitching prospect). A prospect's value is based on three things. Ceiling, likelihood, and ETA. And both of the guys above lack in the last category

[ehaz]

Couldn't Hoyer be one of the guys that was pushing the sox to pick up AG? In which case he might be more inclined to keep him?....

Either way' date=' he's a known quantity who knows our farm system well. It does give us an inside edge. But you're definitely right that the Padres might decide to keep him at all costs.[/quote']

 

That would be the wrong move for the Padres, everyone knows he'll walk after 2011, and everyone knows right now, his value is the highest. He might've loved A-Gon while with the Red Sox, but, now with the Padres it's a totally different animal. They don't have the resources that the Red Sox have, they have holes everywhere on their roster, their farm system is barren. If he knows what he's doing he'll sell high and hopefully get a good deal from someone.

[ehaz]

Translation: " I want top dollar"

 

Good bye Bay. Thanks for what you did in Boston.

 

Agreed. If I were Theo, I wouldn't go a cent over 3 years, 15 million per. I'm sorry but I'm really just not a fan of a streaky, future DH. His defense is horrible, he has no range, and I don't want to be watching him play 2 years from now as an overpaid, "average" player.

[Dojji]

Jason bay is one of the most consistent year in year out hitters in the league.

 

If he needs to DH in a couple years, fine -- Ortiz will have moved on by then anyway.

[bsox0407]

Jason bay is one of the most consistent year in year out hitters in the league.

 

If he needs to DH in a couple years, fine -- Ortiz will have moved on by then anyway.

 

i would take Bay at DH and Reddick for a few years in LF. when Bay becomes a DH when his fielding starts to decline.

[BSN07]

You are making an assumption that you know what Hoyer is thinking' date=' and you are making a pretty strong leap of faith. Take a look at almost all of these big package for premium player deals. That is what I am going off of. The top 2 prospects are typically AA or higher, then there are typically 2 prospects with high ceilings who are a bit far away. Also, it is incredibly important to note where they are in the minor league system, especially with pitchers. Every season they spend in the minors is a chance to blow out an arm. This is the basis of the oft-used abbreviation in prospect circles, TINSTAAPP. (There is no such thing as a pitching prospect). A prospect's value is based on three things. Ceiling, likelihood, and ETA. And both of the guys above lack in the last category[/quote']

 

And your making the assumption that Hoyer wants MLB ready talent over lower high talent prospects.

 

Truth is only Hoyer and his team now what they will do and won't.

 

I don't think other packages for power hitting 1B can be used as the be all end all here. They can be used as maybe guidelines. But in the end the package should be what the team needs, and not what some other organization traded their PH 1B for. But that's just me.

[jacksonianmarch]

It would be an incredibly unconventional idea of dealing for guys who are 3 yrs away. And the fans would absolutely desert the team if they havent already.

[ehaz]

Jason bay is one of the most consistent year in year out hitters in the league.

 

If he needs to DH in a couple years, fine -- Ortiz will have moved on by then anyway.

I meant as in consistency throughout the year

 

OPS per month

.978

.701

.689

1.097

.988

.819

 

Sure Ortiz will have moved on by then, but signing someone and planning for them to become a DH down the road is no way to go about planning future rosters. I don't like the idea of already having your DH spot in 2011 or 2012 being taken over by the soon to be declining left fielder.

[Dipre]

I meant as in consistency throughout the year

 

OPS per month

.978

.701

.689

1.097

.988

.819

 

Sure Ortiz will have moved on by then, but signing someone and planning for them to become a DH down the road is no way to go about planning future rosters. I don't like the idea of already having your DH spot in 2011 or 2012 being taken over by the soon to be declining left fielder.

 

Month-to-month consistency is nearly impossible to find with any hitter. Too many variables.

[BSN07]

It would be an incredibly unconventional idea of dealing for guys who are 3 yrs away. And the fans would absolutely desert the team if they havent already.

 

What fans? This is the Padres man. They don't have followings like our respective teams. And they don't normally make deals to appease the fans either. Hoyer need to go in and clean house(and I don't mean just trade with Boston either). He needs to change the culture of that organization. They should trade anybody on the roster worth anything that is not in the future plans. Yes they will be young for a couple years, but if done correctly they could be a very good young, cheap team with some cap room.

 

It's not like they were selling out every game anyways.

[ehaz]

It would be an incredibly unconventional idea of dealing for guys who are 3 yrs away. And the fans would absolutely desert the team if they havent already.

Regardless of how far away they are Westmoreland and Kelly are obviously the most talented players in the Red Sox minor league system. Hoyer would be stupid not to request them in a trade for Gonzalez over prospects who are closer such as Anderson or Bowden.

[Dipre]

Regardless of how far away they are Westmoreland and Kelly are obviously the most talented players in the Red Sox minor league system. Hoyer would be stupid not to request them in a trade for Gonzalez over prospects who are closer such as Anderson or Bowden.

 

He could request all 4.

[ehaz]

He could request all 4.

True, I meant that as in having Kelly and Westmoreland as the centerpiece of the deal over Anderson and Bowden.

[Spudboy]

Welcome ehaz.

 

Whoever the f*** you are.

[ehaz]

Welcome ehaz.

 

Whoever the f*** you are.

 

I'll take it. I was looking for somewhere to post other than the increasingly retarded MLB forums.

[Cocos Disciples]

Welcome ehaz.

 

Whoever the f*** you are.

 

Well that's one way to greet a new member.

 

Stick around, ehaz.

[Dojji]

I'll take it. I was looking for somewhere to post other than the increasingly retarded MLB forums.

 

Increasingly? you can get a number HIGHER than infinity???

[Spudboy]

Well that's one way to greet a new member.

 

Stick around, ehaz.

 

Hahahahaha!

 

Sorry.

 

I welcome everyone here. Especially someone who immerses themselves immediately into the fray.

 

I meant no disrespect.

 

 

Carry on.

[Emmz]

Increasingly? you can get a number HIGHER than infinity???

 

u maid a funni!!!11

[ehaz]

Fangraphs.com has a new article up on why they shouldn't resign Bay. I can't post the link due to forum rules but I'll provide some quotes:

 

"Bay turned 31 about three weeks ago and is fresh from his best season in years. Since moving to the American League in July 2008, Bay has seen his strikeout rate leap in upwards to 30%. Bay strikes out, walks, and hits home runs. Two of those qualities are great to have and make the third tolerable. The problem begins with his age. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and while he does play in a notoriously hitter-friendly ballpark, his bat is likely to decline over the next four years instead of remain static or (somehow) improve.

 

This would be fine if Bay’s value was supplemented by playing a key defensive position or at least playing defense moderately well. Instead Bay is anything but a black hole in left. Bay has posted negative UZR in each season since 2004 with the exception of 2006. His arm has never been good and whatever range he has left isn’t enough to make up for it."

[example1]

You are making an assumption that you know what Hoyer is thinking' date=' and you are making a pretty strong leap of faith. [/quote']

 

Obviously you are too. That's kind of what this whole discussion is about. You are positing that he is thinking one thing (placate the fans by getting MLB ready-now talent), I am positing that he thinks another (Westmoreland and Kelly both have a very high chance of being impact MLB players regardless of their age). If you're doing it too then the act of trying to get into his head is not off base.

 

 

Take a look at almost all of these big package for premium player deals. That is what I am going off of. The top 2 prospects are typically AA or higher, then there are typically 2 prospects with high ceilings who are a bit far away.

 

Let's look at Teixeira's deal from Texas to Atlanta (if you want to look at more YOU can do the research):

 

Teixeira:

 

traded 7/1/07 (27) 1.5 years left:

 

Beau Jones (P): A_Aadv (20)

Elvis Andrus (SS): A_Aadv (18)

Neftali Feliz (P): Rookie (19)

Matt Harrison (P): AA (21)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia ©: MLB (22)

 

Who do you think were the "top prospects" he was traded for? Ostensibly it was Harrison and Saltalamacchia. Who would you take from that list now? Do you think it was random that Andrus and Feliz were chosen among that 5? I bet Texas knew they were really good players who, in a few short years, would be able to help the team.

 

Now, let's play this out with Gonzalez:

 

Gonzalez: (27) 2 years left:

 

Casey Kelly (P): A_adv (20)

Ryan Westmoreland (CF): A_ss (19)

Stolmy Pimentel (P): A_adv (19)

Lars Anderson (1B ): AA (22)

Michael Bowden (P): MLB (23)

 

Does this seem even comparable? I would say so. I see an MLB and AA player in there, two A_adv players and a short-season A player. Anderson was the Sox top prospect before a disappointing year. This would be the ultimate sell-low for the Sox. Anyway...

 

So, two packages:

 

Package 1:

ATL: MLB, AA, A_adv, A_adv, Rookie

BOS: MLB, AA, A_adv, A_adv, A ss

 

By age the Sox package is more advanced too.

 

You can't claim that the ATL prospects were "markedly better" as they are all still prospects and unproven (Feliz and Andrus specifically), which is the argument you used against the potential of Westmoreland and Kelly before, so it can't apply to Andrus and Feliz.

 

Even then, you could argue that the extra half-year warrants sweetening the deal...

 

Okay, add:

 

Derrik Gibson (SS): A_ss (19) and Josh Reddick (22) or Ryan Kalish (21) or Che-Hsuan Lin (21).

 

This could go on for a long, long time. Do you see where this is going Jacko? They could add high-upside prospects and not hurt the MLB club for a long time. Even if the 5 players listed above aren't quite the package that Texas got (which is debateable) there are PLENTY of players the Sox could add to sweeten it.

 

This is without mentioning the possibility of just throwing Daniel Bard in there, or Tazawa, or any of the catching prospects.

 

You really think the Sox can't put together a really nice package with Kelly and Westmoreland as the highest-upside pieces? Please...

 

 

Also, it is incredibly important to note where they are in the minor league system, especially with pitchers. Every season they spend in the minors is a chance to blow out an arm. This is the basis of the oft-used abbreviation in prospect circles, TINSTAAPP. (There is no such thing as a pitching prospect). A prospect's value is based on three things. Ceiling, likelihood, and ETA. And both of the guys above lack in the last category

 

Just like Andrus and Feliz did, right? So they add MLB ready pieces (for SD MLB ready isn't the same as NYY or BOS ready) of which there are many (Wagner, Reddick, Kalish, Tazawa, etc.,). You will undoubtedly nitpick every example I throw out there, which would be an exercise in futility.

 

The Sox could put together a package that blows away Gonzalez's WARP values by 2 or 3-fold without impacting their MLB roster and without losing ANYONE from the 2009 draft. I think the only question is whether Theo would want to give up both Kelly and Westmoreland.

 

But, you know, I can't read his mind.

[Lester82]

Chapman's agent, Mejia, is a Boston guy.

 

He posted 14 pics of Chapman in Boston. it seems they are all at a Boston nightclub

 

http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=120792&id=156461411563&l=4ae31d58b3

 

HOLLA BACK AT CHA FROM DA CLUB! L O L.

[Dojji]

if he's 21? I'd feel pretty great about it. If it takes him a couple years to get up to speed you have it that way.

 

The guy should certaily start in AA at the highest BTW. No guaranteed big league start unless he EARNS it. Agreed?

[Rdsxmbnt]

I'll take it. I was looking for somewhere to post other than the increasingly retarded MLB forums.

 

and you came here?

[Lester82]

Whoa... looks like Chapman spent some "quality time" in Boston

 

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=2920967&id=156461411563&l=4ae31d58b3

[example1]

Whoa... looks like Chapman spent some "quality time" in Boston

 

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=2920967&id=156461411563&l=4ae31d58b3

 

Probably not the first impression the Sox were hoping he would make to potential fans. I appreciate a man who likes a good time, but these pics are pretty over the top.

[Lester82]

LOL - The funny part is those pictures were posted by HIS AGENT.

 

I just think that was humorous that the agent posts it...

 

anyway, the pics don't really bother me.

He was just enjoying his time in Boston

[Dipre]

if he's 21? I'd feel pretty great about it. If it takes him a couple years to get up to speed you have it that way.

 

The guy should certaily start in AA at the highest BTW. No guaranteed big league start unless he EARNS it. Agreed?

 

Dude, do you think you know better than the Boston brass or something?

 

Jesus Christ.