Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dojji]

All posts in this thread must now include a compliment (not backhanded) until I deem otherwise. Like your mother said, if you don't have something nice to say don't say it at all.

 

Yeszir is fair.

 

lol OK, that's an interesting way to end a crapstorm.

[yeszir]

Ok, compliment enforcement lifted.

 

Stop fighting though.

[26 to 6]

http://newmediachatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/can_t_we_all_just_get_along.jpg

[example1]

Theo has talked a few times (once on EEI, once through Gammons) about the "core group" that this team is building around at this point: established prime or pre-prime guys in key positions, namely:

 

Beckett

Lester

Buchholz

Matsuzaka

Papelbon

Youkilis

Pedroia

Ellsbury

Martinez

Drew

 

All of these guys should be productive beyond just 2010 and I wouldn't be shocked to see both Beckett and Martinez retained for another 3-4 years.

 

The more I think about it, the more obvious it seems that this team will be able to resign Josh Beckett. Whether he wants to stay in Boston or not is another issue, but Beckett was acquired in a deal that sent them Mike Lowell. Lowell and his $12m salary will be coming off the books after 2010, when Beckett becomes a FA.

 

It seems that by letting Lowell go and using some of his money to keep Beckett, the Sox will basically be keeping their primary gain from that trade and will be able to play him a fair salary too. Between Beckett and Lowell's 2010 salary there's more than enough for Beckett alone, and who here wouldn't trade Mike Lowell right now for 3-4 more years of Beckett on the hill? Who here would be really upset if Beckett made $18m/yr for 4 more seasons?

[BSN07]

Theo has talked a few times (once on EEI, once through Gammons) about the "core group" that this team is building around at this point: established prime or pre-prime guys in key positions, namely:

 

Beckett

Lester

Buchholz

Matsuzaka

Papelbon

Youkilis

Pedroia

Ellsbury

Martinez

Drew

 

All of these guys should be productive beyond just 2010 and I wouldn't be shocked to see both Beckett and Martinez retained for another 3-4 years.

 

The more I think about it, the more obvious it seems that this team will be able to resign Josh Beckett. Whether he wants to stay in Boston or not is another issue, but Beckett was acquired in a deal that sent them Mike Lowell. Lowell and his $12m salary will be coming off the books after 2010, when Beckett becomes a FA.

 

It seems that by letting Lowell go and using some of his money to keep Beckett, the Sox will basically be keeping their primary gain from that trade and will be able to play him a fair salary too. Between Beckett and Lowell's 2010 salary there's more than enough for Beckett alone, and who here wouldn't trade Mike Lowell right now for 3-4 more years of Beckett on the hill? Who here would be really upset if Beckett made $18m/yr for 4 more seasons?

 

2+ pages of "I know what you are, but what am I?"

 

Then Exp1 brings us back with a great post. I totally agree with you here.

[Dipre]

2+ pages of "I know what you are, but what am I?"

 

Then Exp1 brings us back with a great post. I totally agree with you here.

 

Thanks for bringing up the topic again and reminding everyone of the epic battle, Mr. LaRoche.

[BSN07]

Thanks for bringing up the topic again and reminding everyone of the epic battle' date=' Mr. LaRoche.[/quote']

 

Hey I wasn't around last night, and I went through and read the whole damn thing, therefore I felt I had earned the right to make said comment about said event

 

Also I was trying to highlight the genius that is exp1

[Dojji]

Theo has talked a few times (once on EEI, once through Gammons) about the "core group" that this team is building around at this point: established prime or pre-prime guys in key positions, namely:

 

Beckett

Lester

Buchholz

Matsuzaka

Papelbon

Youkilis

Pedroia

Ellsbury

Martinez

Drew

 

All of these guys should be productive beyond just 2010 and I wouldn't be shocked to see both Beckett and Martinez retained for another 3-4 years.

 

The more I think about it, the more obvious it seems that this team will be able to resign Josh Beckett. Whether he wants to stay in Boston or not is another issue, but Beckett was acquired in a deal that sent them Mike Lowell. Lowell and his $12m salary will be coming off the books after 2010, when Beckett becomes a FA.

 

It seems that by letting Lowell go and using some of his money to keep Beckett, the Sox will basically be keeping their primary gain from that trade and will be able to play him a fair salary too. Between Beckett and Lowell's 2010 salary there's more than enough for Beckett alone, and who here wouldn't trade Mike Lowell right now for 3-4 more years of Beckett on the hill? Who here would be really upset if Beckett made $18m/yr for 4 more seasons?

 

I've been telling people for months that I think they pay what it takes to keep Beckett. And unless Mauer is, like, right there to be had we probably do the same for Victor Martinez. Thanks for spelling out the reasons clearly and accurately, EX1

 

The fact that we have a very good chance of keeping our starting pitching core together for the next 3-4 years is one of the reasons I don't think we need to "step back and reposition" for a couple years. Even in the worst case scenario we're still legitimate playoff contenders well into the forseeable future with those guys in our rotation and even an average offense.

 

It's also one of the reasons I'd really like to see Theo go for filling that one last spot with a long-term option and stop crapping around with Wakefield and injured scrubs. It's not a bad move if you really need to fill holes in the rotation, but where we are right now, a capstone move to cement the rotation and really put an exclamation point on our primary advantage makes more sense to me IMHO.

[Dojji]

BTW a couple sites reporting that our assistant GM, Jed Hoyer, is poised to take over as the general manager of the San Diego Padres.

 

Dipre, this is your cue to get excited. A guy who really knows our system now holds the reins on Adrian Gonzalez. If a trade is ever going to happen at all, it just got a lot easier.

 

EDIT: Gammons has picked up on it and has also mentioned that the Sox are considering replacing Hoyer with J. P. Ricciardi. Yipes.

[example1]

Maybe. We will see if it has an impact on AG's availability.

 

We can assume that Hoyer is somewhat like Theo in his appreciation of players. I would think that if Theo is willing to overpay in prospectws AG could be available. Whether Hoyer wants to move AG or not, Theo may have an offer that tempts his future sensibilities too much to not pull the trigger. There's got to be a tipping point, hopefully it is one that Theo is willing to approach.

 

On the other side, however, one has to factor in that although AG is young and controlled for a couple more years, he isn't cost controlled per-se. Theo is smart enough to know that if he trades 5-6 good prospects AG will still be eligibile for FA in the next few years. They should pay a high price, but this isn't a no-holds barred situation...

 

http://www.impawards.com/1989/posters/no_holds_barred.jpg

[example1]

EDIT: Gammons has picked up on it and has also mentioned that the Sox are considering replacing Hoyer with J. P. Ricciardi. Yipes.

 

Wouldnt be a bad move. I can imagine that he would provide some insight about where other teams were at in their pursuit of Halladay and in any other discussions he had with them. He's also got a reputation for being a good baseball mind.

 

We might jump on him for hi shorrible management of the Jays the last few years, but really, any team in the AL East that doesn't have a decade of 1st round picks or a 100m+ payroll is going to struggle. The Halladay debacle would be another reason to judge him poorly, but its a tough position to be looking at trading your cy-young caliber ace to a contender in the same division. I'm willing to give him a pass and have him be Theo's right-hand man.

[BSN07]

I just read the Hoyer to SD story. I think this makes the chances of a deal better. Hoyer probably has a good understanding of who he can get from Boston. And he may value certain players in the organization differently then some other GM's would. If a deal was to go down, the package could be far different then anyone might have expected. I won't say a deal is imminent, just that the % points of a deal happening might have be higher then when Towers was the GM. Should be interesting though:thumbsup:

 

 

I'm ok with JP being assistant GM.

[Emmz]

I've been telling people for months that I think they pay what it takes to keep Beckett. And unless Mauer is' date=' like, right there to be had we probably do the same for Victor Martinez.[/b'] Thanks for spelling out the reasons clearly and accurately, EX1

 

The fact that we have a very good chance of keeping our starting pitching core together for the next 3-4 years is one of the reasons I don't think we need to "step back and reposition" for a couple years. Even in the worst case scenario we're still legitimate playoff contenders well into the forseeable future with those guys in our rotation and even an average offense.

 

It's also one of the reasons I'd really like to see Theo go for filling that one last spot with a long-term option and stop crapping around with Wakefield and injured scrubs. It's not a bad move if you really need to fill holes in the rotation, but where we are right now, a capstone move to cement the rotation and really put an exclamation point on our primary advantage makes more sense to me IMHO.

 

The Twins are expanding their payroll significantly, according to the team, and Joe Mauer is priority number one. He's not going anywhere, and he even said that he'd take a lesser amount to stay with the Twins. He doesn't want to play anywhere else, because he's from here. Joe Mauer isn't going anywhere, and if I have to make sure of this I will. Myself >: \

 

Just thought I'd clear that up, that it's very very unlikely

[Paradisecity]

Couldn't Hoyer be one of the guys that was pushing the sox to pick up AG? In which case he might be more inclined to keep him?....

[Dojji]

Couldn't Hoyer be one of the guys that was pushing the sox to pick up AG? In which case he might be more inclined to keep him?....

 

Either way, he's a known quantity who knows our farm system well. It does give us an inside edge. But you're definitely right that the Padres might decide to keep him at all costs.

[Dipre]

BTW a couple sites reporting that our assistant GM, Jed Hoyer, is poised to take over as the general manager of the San Diego Padres.

 

Dipre, this is your cue to get excited. A guy who really knows our system now holds the reins on Adrian Gonzalez. If a trade is ever going to happen at all, it just got a lot easier.

 

EDIT: Gammons has picked up on it and has also mentioned that the Sox are considering replacing Hoyer with J. P. Ricciardi. Yipes.

 

I am excited.

 

However, as PC pointed out, Hoyer loves A-Gon, so it might wind up a disadvantage.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Twins are expanding their payroll significantly, according to the team, and Joe Mauer is priority number one. He's not going anywhere, and he even said that he'd take a lesser amount to stay with the Twins. He doesn't want to play anywhere else, because he's from here. Joe Mauer isn't going anywhere, and if I have to make sure of this I will. Myself >: \

 

Just thought I'd clear that up, that it's very very unlikely

 

what a player says and what a player does are typically two different things. When he gets a 13 mil a yr contract offer from Minny, vs a 20mil a yr offer from everyone else, he might change his mind. Another thing that kinda makes me skeptical is the fact that he hasnt signed anything yet

[Dipre]

what a player says and what a player does are typically two different things. When he gets a 13 mil a yr contract offer from Minny' date=' vs a 20mil a yr offer from everyone else, he might change his mind. Another thing that kinda makes me skeptical is the fact that he hasnt signed anything yet[/quote']

 

You know, Jacko's right on this one.

 

I'll brb, i'm gonna go buy lotto tickets using using today's date as the number combination.

[Emmz]

what a player says and what a player does are typically two different things. When he gets a 13 mil a yr contract offer from Minny' date=' vs a 20mil a yr offer from everyone else, he might change his mind. Another thing that kinda makes me skeptical is the fact that he hasnt signed anything yet[/quote']

 

He's from Minnesota, and hell, Hunter would have signed with us for about 3 or 4 million less than the Angels, but we never even went after him. If we'd have been smart, we'd have traded Santana for Lester or Bucholz and Ellsbury, and we'd have an OF of Hunter, Span, Ellsbury/Cuddyer.

 

All we have to do is give him a similar contract to what we threw at Morneau and he'll stay in Minnesota. Kirby Puckett was straight edge like that as well, loved Minnesota enough to stay put and take significantly less to play with the Twins than to play with the Yankees.

[Emmz]

You know, Jacko's right on this one.

 

I'll brb, i'm gonna go buy lotto tickets using using today's date as the number combination.

 

The Twins said they would expand the payroll to keep Mauer as well, I think that was lost, so I might has well say it again. They're not going to let arguably the best player in baseball get away. He's a catcher who will win a Gold Glove for the rest of his career, will bat .330 and is capable now of hitting 30 home runs in a shortened season.

[Dipre]

The Twins said they would expand the payroll to keep Mauer as well' date=' I think that was lost, so I might has well say it again. They're not going to let arguably the best player in baseball get away. He's a catcher who will win a Gold Glove for the rest of his career, will bat .330 and is capable now of hitting 30 home runs in a shortened season.[/quote']

 

The problem with that is, someone's (Red Sox, Yankees) going to offer Mauer a 100+ million dollar contract.

 

The Twins will not be able to match that sort of financial firepower.

[jacksonianmarch]

Emmz, I wont put it completely out of the question here. But if he was dead set on resigning in Minnesota, why has he come so close to free agency without even a talk about a contract. Also, what do you think he's gonna say. You know, I've lived here all my life, but I will whore myself out for the most money?

 

Here's the problem. The Twins probably arent gonna deal him even if they reach an impasse. This is due to the incredibly weak AL Central AND that fact that they made their run to the playoffs without their best pitcher (Slowey) and power hitter (Morneau). So, trade talks are gonna be pretty minimal. My question is how much of a discount is he gonna take. Remember, Minnesota is much cheaper to live in than NYC or Boston. So, a 1-2 mil difference in salary is probably the difference in taxes/ living expenses compared to Minnesota. So a 1-2 mil per yr discount is probably fine for Mauer. But after that?

 

Do you really think he'll stay in Minnesota for Morneau money? Morneau signed for 6yrs 80mil. Thats $13.3mil per yr. You really think he's gonna leave $40 million dollars on the table? Would you? I am from New England and am a diehard Yankee fan. But if LA offered me $40mil more, then I'd be a west coaster. There arent too many people who wouldnt suck up a move for a short period of time for a life altering amount of money.

 

And from the Twins perspective, does it make sense for them to sign Mauer for close to market value? Does it make sense for a team like Minnesota to have a player signed for lets say 18mil a yr (Mauer), a player signed for 13mil a yr (Morneau), and a player signed for 11 mil a yr (Nathan) when your total payroll sits around $70mil. Especially when you consider Cuddyer is entering his last yr of his contract (holds a 10.5mil options which increases his cost by 2mil) and guys like Kubel, Span, Blackburn, etc are coming up on arbitration years. That 18 mil could lock up the rest of the team for a long time. So you need to think about that. Even if they expect to increase their salaries, do you think they will get into the $100mil range? Or likely around $75mil (8 mil more than this yr).

 

Regardless, I just dont see how Mauer, arguably the best player in baseball and one of the best free agents to ever hit the market, takes a massive paycut to stay in a small market. It just doesnt make sense

[Emmz]

Emmz, I wont put it completely out of the question here. But if he was dead set on resigning in Minnesota, why has he come so close to free agency without even a talk about a contract. Also, what do you think he's gonna say. You know, I've lived here all my life, but I will whore myself out for the most money?

 

Here's the problem. The Twins probably arent gonna deal him even if they reach an impasse. This is due to the incredibly weak AL Central AND that fact that they made their run to the playoffs without their best pitcher (Slowey) and power hitter (Morneau). So, trade talks are gonna be pretty minimal. My question is how much of a discount is he gonna take. Remember, Minnesota is much cheaper to live in than NYC or Boston. So, a 1-2 mil difference in salary is probably the difference in taxes/ living expenses compared to Minnesota. So a 1-2 mil per yr discount is probably fine for Mauer. But after that?

 

Do you really think he'll stay in Minnesota for Morneau money? Morneau signed for 6yrs 80mil. Thats $13.3mil per yr. You really think he's gonna leave $40 million dollars on the table? Would you? I am from New England and am a diehard Yankee fan. But if LA offered me $40mil more, then I'd be a west coaster. There arent too many people who wouldnt suck up a move for a short period of time for a life altering amount of money.

 

And from the Twins perspective, does it make sense for them to sign Mauer for close to market value? Does it make sense for a team like Minnesota to have a player signed for lets say 18mil a yr (Mauer), a player signed for 13mil a yr (Morneau), and a player signed for 11 mil a yr (Nathan) when your total payroll sits around $70mil. Especially when you consider Cuddyer is entering his last yr of his contract (holds a 10.5mil options which increases his cost by 2mil) and guys like Kubel, Span, Blackburn, etc are coming up on arbitration years. That 18 mil could lock up the rest of the team for a long time. So you need to think about that. Even if they expect to increase their salaries, do you think they will get into the $100mil range? Or likely around $75mil (8 mil more than this yr).

 

Regardless, I just dont see how Mauer, arguably the best player in baseball and one of the best free agents to ever hit the market, takes a massive paycut to stay in a small market. It just doesnt make sense

 

Neither does Morneau staying there, he too is one of the best players in baseball, but he could have got huge money elsewhere. We're talking about an increase from out mid-sixty-million dollars to closer to 90 million dollar payroll. You're right, I don't see the Twins spending as much as the Sox or Yanks, they simply don't have that kind of money. However, we have the advantage of a brand new ballpark, and that we're his home state, and his favorite team. Believe it or not, lots of players will play based on location. And I think it will probably be more than Morneau money, because he's just that, a catcher, who is the best at his position, as well as being able to hit .365 and 30 home runs. We will spend big on Mauer. Won't be the 20 million that the Yanks or Sox offer, no.

[example1]

Emmz' date=' I wont put it completely out of the question here. But if he was dead set on resigning in Minnesota, why has he come so close to free agency without even a talk about a contract. Also, what do you think he's gonna say. You know, I've lived here all my life, but I will whore myself out for the most money? [/quote']

 

I think the obvious answer to why it hasn't happened yet is that he's had an injury history and hasn't entirely shown what he's capable of over a full season until this year. Last year at this time he was probably a 15m/yr guy with the upside of a 20m/yr guy. After this year--when his obvious potential met his performance--he's a consensus 20m/yr guy.

 

Here's the problem. The Twins probably arent gonna deal him even if they reach an impasse. This is due to the incredibly weak AL Central AND that fact that they made their run to the playoffs without their best pitcher (Slowey) and power hitter (Morneau). So, trade talks are gonna be pretty minimal. My question is how much of a discount is he gonna take. Remember, Minnesota is much cheaper to live in than NYC or Boston. So, a 1-2 mil difference in salary is probably the difference in taxes/ living expenses compared to Minnesota. So a 1-2 mil per yr discount is probably fine for Mauer. But after that?

 

Do you really think he'll stay in Minnesota for Morneau money? Morneau signed for 6yrs 80mil. Thats $13.3mil per yr. You really think he's gonna leave $40 million dollars on the table? Would you? I am from New England and am a diehard Yankee fan. But if LA offered me $40mil more, then I'd be a west coaster. There arent too many people who wouldnt suck up a move for a short period of time for a life altering amount of money.

 

I would think that "discount" will still make him one of the highest paid players in the league. "Discount" in this sense would still need to be an enormous contract. Miguel Cabrera money is possible.

 

And from the Twins perspective, does it make sense for them to sign Mauer for close to market value? Does it make sense for a team like Minnesota to have a player signed for lets say 18mil a yr (Mauer), a player signed for 13mil a yr (Morneau), and a player signed for 11 mil a yr (Nathan) when your total payroll sits around $70mil. Especially when you consider Cuddyer is entering his last yr of his contract (holds a 10.5mil options which increases his cost by 2mil) and guys like Kubel, Span, Blackburn, etc are coming up on arbitration years. That 18 mil could lock up the rest of the team for a long time. So you need to think about that. Even if they expect to increase their salaries, do you think they will get into the $100mil range? Or likely around $75mil (8 mil more than this yr).

 

Mauer at $18m and his age is still a tradeable entity.

 

Regardless, I just dont see how Mauer, arguably the best player in baseball and one of the best free agents to ever hit the market, takes a massive paycut to stay in a small market. It just doesnt make sense

 

I agree with you about "massive" paycut. I don't think he would take a massive paycut.

 

My guess is a 7 year/133m deal. I think the Twins will supplement it by trading either Nathan or Morneau for lots of high-upside young talent who they can supplement Mauer with.

 

Opening a new stadium, good fanbase when they're competitive. Lots of reasons for the Twins to be aggressive in trying to sign Mauer.

 

Also, I agree with Emmz that Mauer has the feeling of someone who will take less to stay with them. He's lived there his whole life, he's obviously comfortable with it and although he won't work for pennies on the dollar, I think he would take 88-cents on the dollar to not look like a money grubbing whore Yankee like A-Rod, Damon, Teixeira, CC, Burnett, Sheffield, Giambi, etc., He would still be very, very, very rich.

[jacksonianmarch]

Location really isnt all that big to ballplayers on the whole. Most players take the most money or close to the most money. There are very, very few players who take less money.

 

Also, you use Morneau as if he set a precedent. He didnt. He had 3+ yrs of service time when he signed. He got rid of 2 or 3 arbitration seasons by signing that deal. Mauer, OTOH, will be a full fledged FA after this season with no yrs of control for the Twins in their hands. That means a LOT more to a player looking for the long term deal.

[example1]

Neither does Morneau staying there' date=' he too is one of the best players in baseball, but he could have got huge money elsewhere. We're talking about an increase from out mid-sixty-million dollars to closer to 90 million dollar payroll. You're right, I don't see the Twins spending as much as the Sox or Yanks, they simply don't have that kind of money. However, we have the advantage of a brand new ballpark, and that we're his home state, and his favorite team. Believe it or not, lots of players will play based on location. And I think it will probably be more than Morneau money, because he's just that, a catcher, who is the best at his position, as well as being able to hit .365 and 30 home runs. We will spend big on Mauer. Won't be the 20 million that the Yanks or Sox offer, no.[/quote']

 

Mauer is a HOF caliber player. Morneau is a very, very good player, but not HOF caliber.

 

Mauer is by far the best offensive catcher, not just in baseball currently, but possibly one of the best of all time.

[jacksonianmarch]

He's the best I have ever seen, thats for sure. And that includes a roided out IRod in Texas, who was about as special as they came.

[Emmz]

Location really isnt all that big to ballplayers on the whole. Most players take the most money or close to the most money. There are very, very few players who take less money.

 

Also, you use Morneau as if he set a precedent. He didnt. He had 3+ yrs of service time when he signed. He got rid of 2 or 3 arbitration seasons by signing that deal. Mauer, OTOH, will be a full fledged FA after this season with no yrs of control for the Twins in their hands. That means a LOT more to a player looking for the long term deal.

 

The Twins will pull out all stops to ensure they keep Joe Mauer, I don't know what part of that hasn't set in. This is possibly the greatest player to ever wear a Twins uniform, and you think we're not going to pay big bucks to keep him here? I don't know that he will stay here for 13 million a year, that was a bad example, but I do think that he's willing to stay here for less than what the other teams offer. I think the Twins break the bank to keep Mauer in Minnesota, I really do.

[jacksonianmarch]

Then the question becomes, should they? Should they carry one player on their team who makes 30% of their total salary? Especially when the Twins are due to get really expensive, really quickly. Span, Cuddyer, Kubel, Blackburn, etc are gonna get really pricey over the next 2-3 yrs

[Emmz]

Mauer is a HOF caliber player. Morneau is a very, very good player, but not HOF caliber.

 

Mauer is by far the best offensive catcher, not just in baseball currently, but possibly one of the best of all time.

 

Morneau is consistently an offensive powerhouse who hits 30-35 bombs and typically has an OBP around .370. He's still an elite offensive power, but you're right, he's not Joe Mauer. No one is. I think Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols are the two players you argue as the best players in baseball, especially given that Mauer has found a power stroke, and his batting average has gone up. Mauer is definitely HOF caliber, and could easily retire as the greatest catcher ever to play the game. Catchers winning batting titles? He's done it thrice, that's unreal.