Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Emmz]

Then the question becomes' date=' should they? Should they carry one player on their team who makes 30% of their total salary? Especially when the Twins are due to get really expensive, really quickly. Span, Cuddyer, Kubel, Blackburn, etc are gonna get really pricey over the next 2-3 yrs[/quote']

 

Of course they should, and if it means giving a couple of the said players, than so be it. It'd be like giving up a couple of key Cardinals to keep Albert Pujols.

[Emmz]

He's the best I have ever seen' date=' thats for sure. And that includes a roided out IRod in Texas, who was about as special as they came.[/quote']

 

Mauer now hitting 30 bombs is scary. He doesn't even look a s*** ton bigger than he did before the injury, but from what I heard, he was working on his upper body while his injury was healing, and that's probably why. I don't know if he's juicing, and he could be, but I'd like to think that's why his power numbers have shot up so significantly.

[Keeper]

I think Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols are the two players you argue as the best players in baseball' date=' especially given that Mauer has found a power stroke, and his batting average has gone up. Mauer is definitely HOF caliber, and could easily retire as the greatest catcher ever to play the game. Catchers winning batting titles? He's done it thrice, that's unreal.[/quote']

 

Two things.

 

Mauer wasn't in the best player discussion until this year.

 

He's got a long way to go before he surpasses Johnny Bench, IMO. And I don't think he will because if the Twins are smart he won't be a catcher for too much longer.

[Emmz]

Two things.

 

Mauer wasn't in the best player discussion until this year.

 

He's got a long way to go before he surpasses Johnny Bench, IMO. And I don't think he will because if the Twins are smart he won't be a catcher for too much longer.

 

That's where the word potentially comes into play, and yes he was, a catcher with as much offensive ability and Gold Glove ability doesn't come around every year. Johnny Bench's best season was his 1970 season, and Joe Mauer's 2009 is one of the best seasons a catcher's ever had, Johnny Bench's 1970 season included. You can't say he's Johnny Bench yet, but you can legitimately say that he's HOF caliber, and he's still only 26 years old.

[Keeper]

Last 4 seasons for Mauer:

 

.864 OPS (2008)

.808 OPS (2007)

.937 OPS (2006)

.783 OPS (2005)

 

Best catcher in baseball? I'll give you that, but not the best player. Pujols and A-Rod have been in the discussion for basically their entire careers. Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera have been in it for awhile now, too.

 

Also, while I'm not disputing that a catcher winning batting titles is impressive, some luck is involved. Ichiro has had 4 seasons where he's hit .350 and above and has only 2 batting titles to show for it. Mauer has had 1 season where he's hit .350 and above and has 3 batting titles.

 

He's HOF caliber, yes, but longevity plays a part. Bench caught 1,742 games. Mauer has caught 607.

[jacksonianmarch]

The only thing missing from Mauer prior to this yr was power. He had the OBP, he had the AVG, and he was one of the best defensive catchers in the game. At his position, defense and intelligence takes precedence over big offensive numbers. He does it all with big offensive numbers, which is why he is much more valuable. If he puts up another 20+HR season with his standard mid .300s BA, he will cement at least a top 3 spot in baseball in terms of worth

[Emmz]

Last 4 seasons for Mauer:

 

.864 OPS (2008)

.808 OPS (2007)

.937 OPS (2006)

.783 OPS (2005)

 

Best catcher in baseball? I'll give you that, but not the best player. Pujols and A-Rod have been in the discussion for basically their entire careers. Hanley Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera have been in it for awhile now, too.

 

Also, while I'm not disputing that a catcher winning batting titles is impressive, some luck is involved. Ichiro has had 4 seasons where he's hit .350 and above and has only 2 batting titles to show for it. Mauer has had 1 season where he's hit .350 and above and has 3 batting titles.

 

.932, .920, .889, .870 are the four best OPS for Johnny Bench, Mauer has already had 1.031 and .937 in four seasons with 500 or more PA, so I think that damages your argument about Bench, just to clear that up. Also, the 2007 season was injury plagued, and like I said, he didn't find his power stroke until this season. He was an elite player, since his first batting title, that's all I'm saying. However, now that he has added power, and has built his ability to hit the ball as well, he's arguably the best player in baseball. It's a simple point, don't over-analyze it.

 

As for the Ichiro argument, he still lost the batting race to Mauer 3 times, it's that simple, again, don't over-analyze, it doesn't matter how many times he's hit over .350, it matters that he got beat by Mauer in three batting races in 5 years, again, it's really simple.

[Emmz]

The only thing missing from Mauer prior to this yr was power. He had the OBP' date=' he had the AVG, and he was one of the best defensive catchers in the game. At his position, defense and intelligence takes precedence over big offensive numbers. He does it all with big offensive numbers, which is why he is much more valuable. If he puts up another 20+HR season with his standard mid .300s BA, he will cement at least a top 3 spot in baseball in terms of worth[/quote']

 

I absolutely correct, and I think he will. He led the league in all sorts of important offensive averages this past season, and not to mention, the catcher position is the most valued position in baseball. Joe Mauer's 2009 season, if duplicated, as you said, cements him as one of the top two or three players in baseball.

[Emmz]

He's HOF caliber' date=' yes, but longevity plays a part. Bench caught 1,742 games. Mauer has caught 607.[/quote']

 

It's a valid argument, Mauer's durability, and Bench played catcher practically every day, and rarely missed the amount of games that Mauer has missed. I agree absolutely, but Mauer has already had higher OPS than Bench's best on two different occasions. Now with an added power stroke, I think he'll enter the discussion.

[Keeper]

.932, .920, .889, .870 are the four best OPS for Johnny Bench, Mauer has already had 1.031 and .937 in four seasons with 500 or more PA, so I think that damages your argument about Bench, just to clear that up. Also, the 2007 season was injury plagued, and like I said, he didn't find his power stroke until this season. He was an elite player, since his first batting title, that's all I'm saying. However, now that he has added power, and has built his ability to hit the ball as well, he's arguably the best player in baseball. It's a simple point, don't over-analyze it.

 

As for the Ichiro argument, he still lost the batting race to Mauer 3 times, it's that simple, again, don't over-analyze, it doesn't matter how many times he's hit over .350, it matters that he got beat by Mauer in three batting races in 5 years, again, it's really simple.

 

How does it damage my argument about Bench? He caught 3 times as many games as Mauer. Catchers wear down. Mauer will wear down as well if he continues to put the gear on.

 

I agree that he's been an elite player since he came into the leauge. All I'm saying is Cabrera, A-Rod, Pujols, and Ramirez have been complete players for a long time whereas Mauer only recently found his power. He has yet to duplicate 2009. Until he does, I'm not ready to call him the best player in baseball. I'm also not ready to punch his ticket to Cooperstown.

 

The Ichiro argument merely highlights that there is a certain amount of luck in winning batting titles.

[Emmz]

How does it damage my argument about Bench? He caught 3 times as many games as Mauer. Catchers wear down. Mauer will wear down as well if he continues to put the gear on.

 

I agree that he's been an elite player since he came into the leauge. All I'm saying is Cabrera, A-Rod, Pujols, and Ramirez have been complete players for a long time whereas Mauer only recently found his power. He has yet to duplicate 2009. Until he does, I'm not ready to call him the best player in baseball. I'm also not ready to punch his ticket to Cooperstown.

 

The Ichiro argument merely highlights that there is a certain amount of luck in winning batting titles.

 

Of course he will, and catchers also switch over to new positions, like DH and first base, even Johnny Bench did. Johnny Bench caught four about 3 times as many years as Mauer's been in the league as well, you know. 17 Major League seasons, and all but two with 100 or more games.

 

Was his 2009 season not worthy of him being labeled among the two best players in baseball for that season? That's all I'm saying, and I'm also saying that I believe he can have another season of a high caliber, like 2009. 30 home runs isn't out of the question anymore, and like I said, he worked on his upper body while he was rehabilitating, which would explain the additional power. No one's going to punch his ticket to Cooperstown when he's only played 5 legitimate seasons, one of those with under 500 PA.

 

As for the Ichiro thing, BA in general is a stat that involves luck, that's why statistics like OBP and OPS are more valuable for arguments sake. However, when catchers rarely ever win batting titles, and Mauer's won three, I think that it adds to his value.

[example1]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/other_mlb/view/20091025sox_hot_stove_fired_up_early/

 

Same article that a700 referenced at the beginning of the Ellsbury fielding thread.

 

In it the idea was proposed that the Sox may be looking at trying to find a replacement for CF rather than for LF, especially if the options of Bay and Holliday appear untenable or simply too expensive. Interestingly, discussing the Bay situation in an interview on WEEI this week, Theo talked about the idea that the team that overpays gets the FA. He said they will certainly be trying to get him, but Bay can and will go and see what is available and that this only makes sense. At the same time they need to be prepared to go in other directions and move forward with their longterm plan.

 

So, what of the idea of moving Ellsbury to LF and getting a CF? In the article the name that appears--and really the only one that makes a whole lot of sense--is Carlos Beltran.

 

What of Carlos Beltran?

 

CONTRACT: Age 33, 34 seasons.

-$37m/2 yrs (18.5m)

-full no-trade.

-Fun Perk: "club agreed to lease ocular enhancer machine (device that throws numbered & multi-colored tennis balls at 150 mph)"

-He costs more now than Jason Bay, but would become FA after 2011, same as JD Drew. Next year Theo would have Lowell, Ortiz, Beckett and Martinez coming off, the next ear Drew and Beltran. That will free up a lot of money during some decent free agency periods.

 

Beltran had a bit of a down fielding season last year, but it was still better than his 2005 season, the first year that he came to NY. That tells me it isn't necessarily a factor of getting older. We know he was injured, which couldn't have helped.

 

In any case, he measures out as a likely improvement over Ellsbury defensively in the short term, and a massive offensive improvement in CF. I think you could pencil him in for at least a 4.5 WAR, given his past 4 seasons of:

 

2006: 7.0

2007: 4.9

2008: 6.7

2009: 2.9

 

LF is where Ellsbury has had the most defensive impact in the past and it would greatly improve his worth to this team. He could compare favorably to a guy like Carl Crawford in a few years playing in left and an OF of Ellsbury, Beltran and Drew would be a great defensive outfield, at home or on the road.

 

This seems like at least an obvious backup plan to the resign Bay/get Holliday options. I'm wondering if it would be a better primary plan.

 

What would it take to get a guy like Beltran? I'm not sure. I don't think the conversation starts with Buchholz. It will need to be a nice package, but at that $$ and for only two seasons at his age, it wouldn't be an Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez type package.

 

Just for fun, the lineup could look like:

 

Ellsbury (L)

Pedroia ®

Martinez (S)

Beltran (S)

Youkilis ®

Ortiz (L)

Lowell ®

Drew (L)

Lowrie (S)

 

I think it would make them a better road team and would avoid them needing to sell the farm to stay competitive the next few years. An interesting option, if he's available.

[The_Destroyah]

Of course he will, and catchers also switch over to new positions, like DH and first base, even Johnny Bench did. Johnny Bench caught four about 3 times as many years as Mauer's been in the league as well, you know. 17 Major League seasons, and all but two with 100 or more games.

 

Was his 2009 season not worthy of him being labeled among the two best players in baseball for that season? That's all I'm saying, and I'm also saying that I believe he can have another season of a high caliber, like 2009. 30 home runs isn't out of the question anymore, and like I said, he worked on his upper body while he was rehabilitating, which would explain the additional power. No one's going to punch his ticket to Cooperstown when he's only played 5 legitimate seasons, one of those with under 500 PA.

 

As for the Ichiro thing, BA in general is a stat that involves luck, that's why statistics like OBP and OPS are more valuable for arguments sake. However, when catchers rarely ever win batting titles, and Mauer's won three, I think that it adds to his value.

 

well and its not just the batting titles, Mauer has had a just obnoxiously high OBP too.

[CoachC.]

Not sure where to put this but Gammons just put this on his twitter. Was Brad Mills offered the Astros managerial position?

 

[Dojji]

He's HOF caliber, yes, but longevity plays a part. Bench caught 1,742 games. Mauer has caught 607.

 

He's 26. If he lasts 8 years behind the dish catching 120-130 games or more a year he'll catch Bench handily.

 

Catching until he's 32 or 33 is something you should be able to expect from a guy like Mauer.

[Dipre]

He's 26. If he lasts 8 years behind the dish catching 120-130 games or more a year he'll catch Bench handily.

 

Catching until he's 32 or 33 is something you should be able to expect from a guy like Mauer.

 

Not only that, but having him catch 120-130 is something that would probably preserve him in the long run.

[The_Destroyah]

Mauer will definitely be a HOFer IMO, barring an unforseen circumstance such as serious injury and he is just behind Pujols as the best player in the league.

[Dojji]

I think considering his position and the value of his defense at the position, Mauer can give Pujols a run for his money.

 

Pujols is a strong defensive 1B with incredible power, but we're talking franchise caliber gold glove catcher with historic offensive numbers for his position. Either one alone would make a good catcher. Put both together and Mauer is a candidate for one of the best catchers in history. Pujols is the best 1B of his era, but he's short of historic bests at a position dominated by power hitters.

[Dipre]

I think considering his position and the value of his defense at the position, Mauer can give Pujols a run for his money.

 

Pujols is a strong defensive 1B with incredible power, but we're talking franchise caliber gold glove catcher with historic offensive numbers for his position. Either one alone would make a good catcher. Put both together and Mauer is a candidate for one of the best catchers in history. Pujols is the best 1B of his era, but he's short of historic bests at a position dominated by power hitters.

 

Disagree strongly.

 

At his current pace, Pujols will probably end up a top 10 player in the history of baseball.

[jacksonianmarch]

How did this turn into a Mauer thread anyway?

 

Anyway, a bit of news on this Monday...

 

Yusei Kikuchi is entering the draft in Japan, so he is not coming to the states for a LOOONG time.

 

The Sox are interested in Greg Zaun for backup catcher duties if and only if, Varitek declines his player option portion of the mutual option

 

Ben Sheets is going to pitch in 2010 and in all likelihood will come in healthy. The Brewers are the favorites to resign him, but dont rule out the Red Sox, who have shown no reluctance in filling their #5 hole with injury reclamation projects. I honestly think that a healthy Sheets would do a lot of good for Boston, but they need to fill that #5 hole with someone they can count on for innings over lights out dominance.

 

Aroldis Chapman's agent is telling teams that it is going to take a $60 million contract to sign his left handed client. That might be too steep for a guy who looks like he's gonna be a closer rather than a starter, but we'll see how it shakes out.

 

Joakim Soria is going to be on the block as is Joe Nathan

 

And from the sounds of it, Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami will be on the market as the Braves are trying to shed enough payroll to keep Tim Hudson around. If they cannot, then Hudson may hit the open market, completely healthy s/p TJS. He could command a pretty nice salary and I would assume he could be a target for the sox and the yanks

[example1]

How did this turn into a Mauer thread anyway?

 

Anyway, a bit of news on this Monday...

 

Yusei Kikuchi is entering the draft in Japan, so he is not coming to the states for a LOOONG time.

 

The Sox are interested in Greg Zaun for backup catcher duties if and only if, Varitek declines his player option portion of the mutual option

 

Ben Sheets is going to pitch in 2010 and in all likelihood will come in healthy. The Brewers are the favorites to resign him, but dont rule out the Red Sox, who have shown no reluctance in filling their #5 hole with injury reclamation projects. I honestly think that a healthy Sheets would do a lot of good for Boston, but they need to fill that #5 hole with someone they can count on for innings over lights out dominance.

 

Aroldis Chapman's agent is telling teams that it is going to take a $60 million contract to sign his left handed client. That might be too steep for a guy who looks like he's gonna be a closer rather than a starter, but we'll see how it shakes out.

 

Joakim Soria is going to be on the block as is Joe Nathan

 

And from the sounds of it, Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami will be on the market as the Braves are trying to shed enough payroll to keep Tim Hudson around. If they cannot, then Hudson may hit the open market, completely healthy s/p TJS. He could command a pretty nice salary and I would assume he could be a target for the sox and the yanks

 

making stuff up? sources? which?

[jacksonianmarch]

mlbtraderumors.com

 

Sorry, they have all the updates on these guys with sources

[Dojji]

If we get Zaun, we have to expose George Kottaras to waivers. As hard as it is to find a decent catcher I doubt Kottaras clears waivers -- too many teams have an absolute gap at catcher for me to believe teams will pass up on a chance to get him for free, especially with the power he hit for a couple years ago in AAA.

 

Kottaras isn't a great backup catcher, but he's serviceable and young enough to improve. I don't think the difference beween him and Zaun is all that great and he's probably a better bet than Tek going forward.

 

Even leaving Kottaras aside, I'd like to give Dusty Brown a shot before spending money on Zaun. There's other places the Sox need to put their dollars this offseason than a going-on-39 year old backup catcher with no arm. We already have one of those, only younger. And believe me, if that .800 OPS of Zaun's last year isn't small sample size, nothing is.

[Emmz]

Joe Nathan on the block? That's shocking, especially considering that when he's on, and not playing the Yankees, he's arguably the best closer in baseball (which is to say about 95% of the time).

[Dojji]

It makes sense. the Twins are a pretty young team and have other worthy relief stock. I think their GM knows how lucky they got this year to break into the playoffs and that that lightning is more likely to strike twice with a couple of decent prospects bolstering their lineup and rotation than it will with Nathan at the back end of the pen.

 

Should a team worry about "the Yankee thing" if they wanted to trade for him? I don't think it's so much a black mark on Nathan as a recognition that the Yankee lineup is very, very good.

[Emmz]

We have Bill Smith making the moves, would you honestly trust Bill Smith to make a proper trade?

[Dojji]

Well, there's that. He seems to get his clock cleaned on a fairly regular basis. Santana and Garza are not deals to hang your hat on.

[Emmz]

Bill Smith traded Santana for Gomez and other guys who are no longer with the team. Santana was, and arguably still is, the best pitcher in baseball. Gomez is a guy who swings at everything and is an almost instant out. We traded Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to the Rays, and we got good ol' Delmon Young. Matt Garza is now an ace, and Jason Bartlett is one of the Rays' best players now, and a main catalyst to their run last season. Delmon Young has an OBP under .310, and has no ability to lay off the first pitch. The way I see it, we could have kept Bartlett, and dealt Garza for something better than Young, of all the guys we could have got for Matt Garza, a guy who has attitude problems. Santana was too expensive, and if we had to trade him, I'd prefer trading for Ellsbury and Bucholz (Because as a Sox fan, I wouldn't want to give up Lester when we could easily have him and Santana back-to-back). Bill Smith is a moron, simple as that

[Dojji]

Well, I'd caution against judging a deal like that too much by retrospect. One of the things you learn as time goes on is that just because an idea didn't work out doesn't mean it was the wrong idea.

 

The real crime IMHO was including Bartlett in the Garza trade. I can't think of an excuse to throw that guy away. Also, not holding out for Fernando Martinez from the Mets

[Emmz]

Well, I'd caution against judging a deal like that too much by retrospect. One of the things you learn as time goes on was that just because an idea didn't work out doesn't mean it was the wrong idea.

 

The real crime IMHO was including Bartlett in the Garza trade. I can't think of an excuse to throw that guy away. Also, not holding out for Fernando Martinez from the Mets

 

Yeah, you really can when all of the guys from the Santana trade are gone, and Gomez was never the right person to trade for in the beginning, and we could have had either:

 

A. Lester

 

or

 

B. Bucholz and Ellsbury

 

or

 

C. Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy/Melky combinations

 

And we take Gomez and other guys who by the time they're 29 they'll have a chance to be 30.