Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[ehaz]

Obviously you are too. That's kind of what this whole discussion is about. You are positing that he is thinking one thing (placate the fans by getting MLB ready-now talent), I am positing that he thinks another (Westmoreland and Kelly both have a very high chance of being impact MLB players regardless of their age). If you're doing it too then the act of trying to get into his head is not off base.

 

 

 

 

Let's look at Teixeira's deal from Texas to Atlanta (if you want to look at more YOU can do the research):

 

Teixeira:

 

traded 7/1/07 (27) 1.5 years left:

 

Beau Jones (P): A_Aadv (20)

Elvis Andrus (SS): A_Aadv (18)

Neftali Feliz (P): Rookie (19)

Matt Harrison (P): AA (21)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia ©: MLB (22)

 

Who do you think were the "top prospects" he was traded for? Ostensibly it was Harrison and Saltalamacchia. Who would you take from that list now? Do you think it was random that Andrus and Feliz were chosen among that 5? I bet Texas knew they were really good players who, in a few short years, would be able to help the team.

 

Now, let's play this out with Gonzalez:

 

Gonzalez: (27) 2 years left:

 

Casey Kelly (P): A_adv (20)

Ryan Westmoreland (CF): A_ss (19)

Stolmy Pimentel (P): A_adv (19)

Lars Anderson (1B ): AA (22)

Michael Bowden (P): MLB (23)

 

Does this seem even comparable? I would say so. I see an MLB and AA player in there, two A_adv players and a short-season A player. Anderson was the Sox top prospect before a disappointing year. This would be the ultimate sell-low for the Sox. Anyway...

 

So, two packages:

 

Package 1:

ATL: MLB, AA, A_adv, A_adv, Rookie

BOS: MLB, AA, A_adv, A_adv, A ss

 

By age the Sox package is more advanced too.

 

You can't claim that the ATL prospects were "markedly better" as they are all still prospects and unproven (Feliz and Andrus specifically), which is the argument you used against the potential of Westmoreland and Kelly before, so it can't apply to Andrus and Feliz.

 

Even then, you could argue that the extra half-year warrants sweetening the deal...

 

Okay, add:

 

Derrik Gibson (SS): A_ss (19) and Josh Reddick (22) or Ryan Kalish (21) or Che-Hsuan Lin (21).

 

This could go on for a long, long time. Do you see where this is going Jacko? They could add high-upside prospects and not hurt the MLB club for a long time. Even if the 5 players listed above aren't quite the package that Texas got (which is debateable) there are PLENTY of players the Sox could add to sweeten it.

 

This is without mentioning the possibility of just throwing Daniel Bard in there, or Tazawa, or any of the catching prospects.

 

You really think the Sox can't put together a really nice package with Kelly and Westmoreland as the highest-upside pieces? Please...

 

 

 

 

Just like Andrus and Feliz did, right? So they add MLB ready pieces (for SD MLB ready isn't the same as NYY or BOS ready) of which there are many (Wagner, Reddick, Kalish, Tazawa, etc.,). You will undoubtedly nitpick every example I throw out there, which would be an exercise in futility.

 

The Sox could put together a package that blows away Gonzalez's WARP values by 2 or 3-fold without impacting their MLB roster and without losing ANYONE from the 2009 draft. I think the only question is whether Theo would want to give up both Kelly and Westmoreland.

 

But, you know, I can't read his mind.

Very true but all this being said, I wouldn't trade Westmoreland and I don't think the red sox will either. Westmoreland signed out of high school with the red sox and he passed up a full ride to Vanderbilt to sign with his hometown team. It was not expected at all that the red sox would get the chance to sign him. It would not only screw up their chances and damage their reputation for drafting in the future, but it would also be a bit classless.

[BSN07]

Obviously you are too. That's kind of what this whole discussion is about. You are positing that he is thinking one thing (placate the fans by getting MLB ready-now talent), I am positing that he thinks another (Westmoreland and Kelly both have a very high chance of being impact MLB players regardless of their age). If you're doing it too then the act of trying to get into his head is not off base.

 

 

 

 

Let's look at Teixeira's deal from Texas to Atlanta (if you want to look at more YOU can do the research):

 

Teixeira:

 

traded 7/1/07 (27) 1.5 years left:

 

Beau Jones (P): A_Aadv (20)

Elvis Andrus (SS): A_Aadv (18)

Neftali Feliz (P): Rookie (19)

Matt Harrison (P): AA (21)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia ©: MLB (22)

 

Who do you think were the "top prospects" he was traded for? Ostensibly it was Harrison and Saltalamacchia. Who would you take from that list now? Do you think it was random that Andrus and Feliz were chosen among that 5? I bet Texas knew they were really good players who, in a few short years, would be able to help the team.

 

Now, let's play this out with Gonzalez:

 

Gonzalez: (27) 2 years left:

 

Casey Kelly (P): A_adv (20)

Ryan Westmoreland (CF): A_ss (19)

Stolmy Pimentel (P): A_adv (19)

Lars Anderson (1B ): AA (22)

Michael Bowden (P): MLB (23)

 

Does this seem even comparable? I would say so. I see an MLB and AA player in there, two A_adv players and a short-season A player. Anderson was the Sox top prospect before a disappointing year. This would be the ultimate sell-low for the Sox. Anyway...

 

So, two packages:

 

Package 1:

ATL: MLB, AA, A_adv, A_adv, Rookie

BOS: MLB, AA, A_adv, A_adv, A ss

 

By age the Sox package is more advanced too.

 

You can't claim that the ATL prospects were "markedly better" as they are all still prospects and unproven (Feliz and Andrus specifically), which is the argument you used against the potential of Westmoreland and Kelly before, so it can't apply to Andrus and Feliz.

 

Even then, you could argue that the extra half-year warrants sweetening the deal...

 

Okay, add:

 

Derrik Gibson (SS): A_ss (19) and Josh Reddick (22) or Ryan Kalish (21) or Che-Hsuan Lin (21).

 

This could go on for a long, long time. Do you see where this is going Jacko? They could add high-upside prospects and not hurt the MLB club for a long time. Even if the 5 players listed above aren't quite the package that Texas got (which is debateable) there are PLENTY of players the Sox could add to sweeten it.

 

This is without mentioning the possibility of just throwing Daniel Bard in there, or Tazawa, or any of the catching prospects.

 

You really think the Sox can't put together a really nice package with Kelly and Westmoreland as the highest-upside pieces? Please...

 

 

 

 

Just like Andrus and Feliz did, right? So they add MLB ready pieces (for SD MLB ready isn't the same as NYY or BOS ready) of which there are many (Wagner, Reddick, Kalish, Tazawa, etc.,). You will undoubtedly nitpick every example I throw out there, which would be an exercise in futility.

 

The Sox could put together a package that blows away Gonzalez's WARP values by 2 or 3-fold without impacting their MLB roster and without losing ANYONE from the 2009 draft. I think the only question is whether Theo would want to give up both Kelly and Westmoreland.

 

But, you know, I can't read his mind.

 

Great post mate.

 

I have a couple reservations about your package though. I honestly don't see SD/Hoyer having interest in Lars, unless Hoyer doesn't like Blanks. And Westmoreland, I think he might be untouchable. But I still think they could get a deal done without him.

[example1]

Very true but all this being said' date=' I wouldn't trade Westmoreland and I don't think the red sox will either. Westmoreland signed out of high school with the red sox and he passed up a full ride to Vanderbilt to sign with his hometown team. It was not expected at all that the red sox would get the chance to sign him. It would not only screw up their chances and damage their reputation for drafting in the future, but it would also be a bit classless.[/quote']

 

Great post mate.

 

I have a couple reservations about your package though. I honestly don't see SD/Hoyer having interest in Lars, unless Hoyer doesn't like Blanks. And Westmoreland, I think he might be untouchable. But I still think they could get a deal done without him.

 

I'm inclined to agree with both of you.

 

The context of my post was Jacko arguing that SD wouldn't center a package around Kelly and Westmoreland--or that such a return (with the other pieces I mentioned)--would be a huge disappointment for San Diego (and therefore unlikely).

 

My point is that Westmoreland is a potential star, and Kelly might be in the same class. I would be shocked if both were included in any deal, but it could net quite a return.

[BSN07]

I'm inclined to agree with both of you.

 

The context of my post was Jacko arguing that SD wouldn't center a package around Kelly and Westmoreland--or that such a return (with the other pieces I mentioned)--would be a huge disappointment for San Diego (and therefore unlikely).

 

My point is that Westmoreland is a potential star, and Kelly might be in the same class. I would be shocked if both were included in any deal, but it could net quite a return.

 

Oh I know what you meant. I kind of moved on from Jacko's comments, and was trying to talk more about the players in the package instead of bickering whether Hoyer values them or not.

[Dipre]

I think we're kinda undervaluing Reddick and what he brings to the table.

 

I believe a team such as the Padres (specially with Hoyer at the helm) would be greatly intrigued by his skillset.

[Dojji]

I think they'd be inclined to like Kalish better. He's a good OBP hitter, and his speed might be useful in such a cavernous park.

[Dipre]

I think they'd be inclined to like Kalish better. He's a good OBP hitter' date=' and his speed might be useful in such a cavernous park.[/quote']

 

Reddick's a better raw talent. The only area he needs to improve is a bit more plate discipline. Otherwise, he's basically the total package.

[The_Destroyah]

we should have traded them Paul Byrd and John Smoltz, that would have got the deal done, they were "MLB ready" talent (I ust the term "talent" loosely) lol.

[Dojji]

Reddick's a better raw talent. The only area he needs to improve is a bit more plate discipline. Otherwise' date=' he's basically the total package.[/quote']

 

But his biggest overall advantage over Kalish is raw power, and that's blunted at their park.

[example1]

But his biggest overall advantage over Kalish is raw power' date=' and that's blunted at their park.[/quote']

 

All things being equal, why wouldn't a team prefer the guy with raw power regardless of the ballpark?

 

Honest question, do you think "raw power" becomes fly ball outs, whereas "non-raw power" translates into linedrive hits?

[Dipre]

But his biggest overall advantage over Kalish is raw power' date=' and that's blunted at their park.[/quote']

 

"Overall advantage" =/= only advantage.

[jacksonianmarch]

I have been reading all over the place that the sox sound like the dark horse for Harden. I dunno, I dont see it IMO. The sox like reclamation projects, but Harden had a full yr for Chicago and is likely to command around 10 mil a season and will want more than one yr. So, reclamation projects are usually guys coming off bad seasons who are willing to take a low base with a high incentive. That doesnt sound like Harden

[jacksonianmarch]

Pretty good breakdown from this site on the sox salary structure. If you include the likely arb raises, Wakefield being re-upped and Lugo's 9 mil then the sox are stuck at $111.05 mil (their number is a bit off)

 

http://bottomlinesox.com/2009/10/29/how-much-will-the-red-sox-spend-in-2010.html

[example1]

I have been reading all over the place that the sox sound like the dark horse for Harden. I dunno' date=' I dont see it IMO. The sox like reclamation projects, but Harden had a full yr for Chicago and is likely to command around 10 mil a season and will want more than one yr. So, reclamation projects are usually guys coming off bad seasons who are willing to take a low base with a high incentive. That doesnt sound like Harden[/quote']

 

I agree with this. I don't think the Sox have much interest in overpaying for a guy with high injury risk who will get a near-value contract. Harden is a good pitcher, but even when healthy with the Cubs he wasn't #1 or #2 ALE material. If he were willing to do a contract for 5th starter money it would be different.

[example1]

Pretty good breakdown from this site on the sox salary structure. If you include the likely arb raises, Wakefield being re-upped and Lugo's 9 mil then the sox are stuck at $111.05 mil (their number is a bit off)

 

http://bottomlinesox.com/2009/10/29/how-much-will-the-red-sox-spend-in-2010.html

 

I have to say, this is one shoddy collection of $117m contracts.

 

Looking at it in spreadsheet form my only reaction is that I would understand Theo wanting to want a year before making a significant splash in FA given how much is being spent on Lugo, Lowell and Ortiz (33m between the 3 of them). Like it or not, they're stuck with those guys.

 

Personally, I think all three are virtually worthless. Right, Ortiz hit more HRs than anyone in the world after June 6th or whatever, but IMO he was not worth much, let alone more than 10% of the team's payroll.

 

I trust the FO to use their money wisely, but even they can't get out from contracts that suck.

[jacksonianmarch]

If they stand pat, then the Yankees are gonna waltz to another division championship. So, I dont think they will be completely "pat" per se. Although, the more I am hearing about the Holliday negotiations, the less I like them from either a Yankee perspective or from the sox perspective.

 

From the NY perspective, their own internal option of Matsui will fit the need. We wont need a franchise type player in the middle of the order. It would be nice, but it isnt an absolute need. From the sox perspective, I dont see them going out and offering the $120 million it is gonna cost to get a guy who has some question marks. Also, going full bore for Holliday means a long waiting game that could put them out of the running for another player who could fit the need. Theo is all about having all avenues open, so I doubt he sticks to the very end unless he is completely desparate.

[jacksonianmarch]

Another thing fueling the rumor mill. The Padres sent out season ticket brochures today, and while there were pictures of many players, there were NO pictures of Adrian Gonzalez

[BSN07]

In all honesty I wouldn't be shocked to see the Sox not get overly involved in the FA market. Outside of the usual "reclamation type SP", and maybe someone like Abreu on a 1 or 2 year deal, when ultimately the price tags for Bay and Holliday go too high for comfort. Next off season is the off season you could see the Sox make a splash in the FA market so to speak. Namely Joe Mauer(if available of course).

 

The Sox could spend some dough still though. As in contract extensions for Beckett and V-Mart. I know your thinking " but you just said they would try and sign Joe Mauer". But after next season the DH/3B(or 1B) spot becomes available. Which V-Mart could slide into, making room for Mauer behind the dish.

 

I would imagine that if the Sox are to bring in any big name player this off season, it will be via the trade.

[BSN07]

Another thing fueling the rumor mill. The Padres sent out season ticket brochures today' date=' and while there were pictures of many players, there were NO pictures of Adrian Gonzalez[/quote']

 

Interesting. That seems to be a major over site or a very plain message that he won't be there next year.

[Dojji]

Or they're just keeping their options open. At least it suggests that they're open to the possibility.

[Dipre]

They're listening. And groundwork for a deal was possibly laid near the trade deadline.

[ehaz]

I have been reading all over the place that the sox sound like the dark horse for Harden. I dunno' date=' I dont see it IMO. The sox like reclamation projects, but Harden had a full yr for Chicago and is likely to command around 10 mil a season and will want more than one yr. So, reclamation projects are usually guys coming off bad seasons who are willing to take a low base with a high incentive. That doesnt sound like Harden[/quote']

 

Sure Harden could want a multi-year deal, but would any team be in their right mind to give him one? Yeah he's great when he's healthy but he's too big of a health risk for any team to consider him giving a multi year contract especially in this economy (well, except for the MFY's). MLBTR gives a nice rundown on this:

Rich Harden carries a lot of upside for a Type B free agent. His well-documented injury history will prevent any club from risking offering the right-hander a long-term contract, but a one or two-year deal (perhaps with the second year as a club option, that could become guaranteed if Harden reaches certain performance levels) in the high seven-figure range per season could prove to be a relative bargain. Harden might be amenable to such a deal since it would allow him to cash in on an even bigger contract after the 2011 season when he's just 29 years old.

 

Harden only pitched past the sixth inning in five of his 26 starts last season as the Cubs wanted to keep him as fresh as possible. The Canadian was skipped for two September starts and spent a month on the disabled list with a strained back, but given the major arm problems that have plagued his career, this actually counts as a fairly healthy showing for the right-hander.

[Lester82]

"If they stand pat, then the Yankees are gonna waltz to another division championship."

 

If the Red Sox simply waltz to a wild card berth, they still can be playing deep into October. Who cares about division "championships"

[Lester82]

By the way, obviously the Red Sox have to make some upgrade to offense, but the Yankees won't waltz to anything when the Red Sox could actually have a better starting rotation. And the Yankees aren't going to get repeat performances (the likes of 2009) out of key positional players that are 35+ years.

 

(Plus, is Andy Pettitte going to give another year next year like this at 37, 38? What's Joba or Hughes going to be if they still need a number 3, nevermind a number 4 starter...)

[Wells]

In all honesty I wouldn't be shocked to see the Sox not get overly involved in the FA market. Outside of the usual "reclamation type SP", and maybe someone like Abreu on a 1 or 2 year deal, when ultimately the price tags for Bay and Holliday go too high for comfort. Next off season is the off season you could see the Sox make a splash in the FA market so to speak. Namely Joe Mauer(if available of course).

 

The Sox could spend some dough still though. As in contract extensions for Beckett and V-Mart. I know your thinking " but you just said they would try and sign Joe Mauer". But after next season the DH/3B(or 1B) spot becomes available. Which V-Mart could slide into, making room for Mauer behind the dish.

 

I would imagine that if the Sox are to bring in any big name player this off season, it will be via the trade.

 

Call me crazy but I do not see Mauer leaving Minnesota unless it's to become a Met. He is from St Paul but money talks.. IF the Sox and Yanks get involved I think what'd end up ultimately happening is the price will go up and the Mets will do their usual to get on the back page of the Post by spending STUPID money for a banged up catcher.

[Wells]

"If they stand pat' date=' then the Yankees are gonna waltz to another division championship."[/b']

 

If the Red Sox simply waltz to a wild card berth, they still can be playing deep into October. Who cares about division "championships"

 

Where are our boys sitting at this juncture?

[example1]

Another thing fueling the rumor mill. The Padres sent out season ticket brochures today' date=' and while there were pictures of many players, there were NO pictures of Adrian Gonzalez[/quote']

 

Given that they can't advertise the player they would be getting, why wouldn't they put Gonzalez on there even if he were likely to get traded? It isn't like Gonzalez is an embarassment to the franchise or is being shunned by the new FO.

 

Chances are his absence or presence on this mailing is not an indicator.

[example1]

From the limited video highlights I've seen, Aroldis Chapman has occasionally dominant stuff and a long, smooth delivery. His stuff is undoubtedly impressive, especially from a lefty.

 

Assuming that the Sox believe his age and have scouted him enough to know who he is, how much should they be willing to go on a guy like this?

 

Daniel Bard was worth about $3.8m last year (at fangraphs). If Chapman could project to at least be a mid-3ERA late-inning/setup guy, I suspect he could be worth $5m a year. If he can project as a SP he could be worth much more.

 

The question may be whether teams have the $$ or the faith to be assured that he is most useful as a SP. If nobody does then I imagine the Sox would be among the highest bidders, taking a relatively low-risk, high-reward stance.

 

At his age I imagine the Sox could turn him into a potentially devistating LH compliment to Bard at the back of the pen, or a servicable (if dominant) LH #5 starter in 2 years. There's a lot of value to controlling someone like that for 5-6 years of his development. The acquisition cost might be pretty high, but the overall value cost might not be.

 

Would a 5 yr/$30m offer be absurd to get that arm for 5 years? How high and for how long should they be willing to go on a pre-prime, world-class arm? Could this type of talent be "undervalued"?

 

Finally, could there be benefit to the Sox making themselves more known to Cuban players? Signing Jose Iglesias may have started that process already, but getting Chapman would certainly progress it and that seems smart to me. It could ultimately be worth a few million dollars over the length of the contract in itself (especially if US-Cuban relations improve at all).

 

Perhaps the Sox think about being primed for the day that Cubans can freely play in MLB and become FAs; I imagine there would be some tremendous talent immediately available for teams that can be reasonably large and lengthy deals.

[SoxFan02]

It was reported recently that the Rays were going to make Zobrist their permanent 2nd basemen next season which means that Brignac and the recently acquired Rodriguez are both blocked and have Beckham breathing down their back. Personally I think that S-Rod could be a great player if given a chance next season, I know that he is somewhat of a liability at short but if he can put anything close to the numbers that he has in AAA it will make up for his defense. If he is made available this offseason the Sox should definetly try to acquire him.

[BSN07]

It was reported recently that the Rays were going to make Zobrist their permanent 2nd basemen next season which means that Brignac and the recently acquired Rodriguez are both blocked and have Beckham breathing down their back. Personally I think that S-Rod could be a great player if given a chance next season' date=' I know that he is somewhat of a liability at short but if he can put anything close to the numbers that he has in AAA it will make up for his defense. If he is made available this offseason the Sox should definetly try to acquire him.[/quote']

 

Yes... because TB will be quick to trade anyone to one of their biggest rivals...

 

You should open the windows when your painting