Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Dojji]

Let's bear in mind that Ellsbury is a speed hitter while Cabrera is an alleged power hitter. Ellsbury's slugging is far less important to his overall game than Cabrera's -- and he still beats Cabrera in that category.

[Dipre]

Let's bear in mind that Ellsbury is a speed hitter while Cabrera is an alleged power hitter. Ellsbury's slugging is far less important to his overall game than Cabrera's -- and he still beats Cabrera in that category.

 

According to who?

 

(Maybe some Yankee fans?)

 

He's a slap hitter with *some* gap power.

[Cocos Disciples]

Let's bear in mind that Ellsbury is a speed hitter while Cabrera is an alleged power hitter. Ellsbury's slugging is far less important to his overall game than Cabrera's -- and he still beats Cabrera in that category.

 

I've never heard anyone call Cabrera a power hitter. He has 63 home runs in his professional career.

[Dojji]

I know, thus "alleged" power hitter. He's sure not a contact or speed hitter.

 

I suppose that's the biggest part of Melky's problem. He really isn't one thing or the other. Make someone a decent career 4th OF when the New York overhype finishes wearing off though.

[yankees228]

No reasonable Yankee fan thinks Melky is anything more than an average baseball player.

[TheMino007]

Well the Sox need to make some sort of splash this offseason. Sox need another power bat and I imagine Adrian Gonzalez trade talks will be brought up again this offseason. You may even hear more trade rumors about Roy Halladay or Felix Hernandez. I think the Sox will make a serious move at Hernandez b/c to be honest I'm not sure Beckett is in the long term picture for the Sox. Obviously his option will be picked up, but do you want to give Beckett a long term deal with his history of injury problems? I think the Sox are looking to replace Beckett with a young ace.

 

Three things I just heard:

-Martinez will be the starting catcher

-Buccholz will be in the starting rotation (no brainer)

-Wakefield will be back

 

I don't think the rotation needs that much of an overhaul, I'd love to have Felix Hernadez, but you can't go wrong with a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Buccholz, Matzuaka, and Wakefield. I think with Wake's injury problems they need another starter who can also pitch out of the pen. Speaking of the pen, I really don't know what to do with it. I think the Sox need to trade Delcarmen while they still can. Could this idea actually work as a closer situation? Have Billy Wagner close and if he falters make Bard the closer? I know Paps won't get much for trade value, but the Sox have to move on from him. He isn't getting any better

 

Tek can come back, as a backup. Unless the Sox make a huge splash and trade for Mauer, V-Mart (despite his defensive problems) will be the starting catcher. The Sox need another bat in the lineup, b/c we can't afford to have Ortiz in the middle of the lineup anymore. I can live with him as a 6 or 7 hitter. To be honest 25/95 isn't bad for a number 6 hitter. But something needs to be done to that offense. Adrian Gonzalez, Miggy Cabrera, Prince Fielder even, a big bat at 1st base needs to be brought in. As much as I love Mike Lowell he can't play everyday. But he will be a good option off the bench b/c when healthy, the guy still plays well

 

Jason Bay needs to be re-signed or Matt Holliday needs to be brought in. Alex Gonzalez should have his option picked up. Jed Lowrie wont' cut it.

If the Sox could put out a lineup like this next year, I'd be happy:

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedrioa 2B

3. Martinez C

4. Youkilis 3B

5. (A. Gonzalez?) 1B

6. Bay LF

7. Ortiz DH

8. Drew RF

9. Gonzalez SS

[The_Destroyah]

Ortiz can hit in the middle of the order if he can keep up his current level of production.

Id put Youk in front of the other middle of the order bats at the 3 spot, his OBP will be a virtue there.

[Dipre]

No reasonable Yankee fan thinks Melky is anything more than an average baseball player.

 

Jacko?

[Dipre]

 

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedrioa 2B

3. Martinez C

4. Youkilis 3B

5. (A. Gonzalez?) 1B

6. Bay LF

7. Ortiz DH

8. Drew RF

9. Gonzalez SS

 

A-Gon hitting 5th is a no-no. The only position he should hit in if acquired is 4th.

[26 to 6]

No reasonable Yankee fan thinks Melky is anything more than an average baseball player.

What do you mean, to me Melky is like the modern day equivalent to Joe D!

 

[The_Destroyah]

A-Gon hitting 5th is a no-no. The only position he should hit in if acquired is 4th.

how does this sound then? I wasnt sure what to do with the 5 and 6 spots so maybe you can give me some insight to that, and the "?" are around players that are not on the team currently but have a possibility to be there.

 

1.Ellsbury CF

2.Pedroia 2B

3.Youkilis 3B

4.A. Gonzalez? 1B

5.Bay/Holliday? LF

6.Martinez C

7.Ortiz DH

8.Drew RF

9.Lowrie/the other Gonzo SS

[Dipre]

how does this sound then? I wasnt sure what to do with the 5 and 6 spots so maybe you can give me some insight to that, and the "?" are around players that are not on the team currently but have a possibility to be there.

 

1.Ellsbury CF

2.Pedroia 2B

3.Youkilis 3B

4.A. Gonzalez? 1B

5.Bay/Holliday? LF

6.Martinez C

7.Ortiz DH

8.Drew RF

9.Lowrie/the other Gonzo SS

 

I'd actually hit Oritz 6th and V-Mart 7th.

 

Otherwise, it's perfect.

[The_Destroyah]

I'd actually hit Oritz 6th and V-Mart 7th.

 

Otherwise, it's perfect.

 

Yeah I like that way too, but I think either way its a hell of a line up, would love to actually have Gonzo and Holliday (Bay is plenty good though)

[TheMino007]

How about a lineup that looks like this:

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedrioa 2B

3. Youkilis 3B (need to have that OBP near the top of the lineup, and in the three spot he still gets a chance to drive some guys in. Youk doesn't have the power to be a number 4 or 5 in my opinon. I want guys batting 4 or 5 who can smash the ball out of the park).

4. Adrian Gonzalez 1B

5. Bay LF

6. V-Mart C

7. Ortiz DH (If Ortiz can put up 25 homers and 95 RBI as number 7 hitter I'll take it)

8. Drew RF (When your number 8 has an OBP of at least .380 thats pretty damn good)

9. Gonzo SS

 

Varitek should not catch more than 60 games

Lowell will be a great asset off the bench.

 

Lowell, Ortiz, and Tek will all be coming off the books after 2010, so I can live with them all for one more year.

[Dipre]

How about a lineup that looks like this:

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedrioa 2B

3. Youkilis 3B (need to have that OBP near the top of the lineup, and in the three spot he still gets a chance to drive some guys in. Youk doesn't have the power to be a number 4 or 5 in my opinon. I want guys batting 4 or 5 who can smash the ball out of the park).

4. Adrian Gonzalez 1B

5. Bay LF

6. V-Mart C

7. Ortiz DH (If Ortiz can put up 25 homers and 95 RBI as number 7 hitter I'll take it)

8. Drew RF (When your number 8 has an OBP of at least .380 thats pretty damn good)

9. Gonzo SS

 

Varitek should not catch more than 60 games

Lowell will be a great asset off the bench.

 

Lowell, Ortiz, and Tek will all be coming off the books after 2010, so I can live with them all for one more year.

 

Why hit Drew and Ortiz back to back when you can hit V-Mart between them?

[example1]

He's a better hitter too.

 

I don't see how they're comparable if Ells is better at everything.

 

Do you really believe this? I guess I do too, but their seasons this year were close, and Ellsbury is a year older and seems to not have put it all together yet.*

 

We all see that he had a better offensive season than 2008, but his defensive performance really hurt his overall value, according both to fangraph's WAR rating and BP's WARP:

 

Ellsbury:

[table] year | WAR (FG) | WARP (BP)|

2008 | 3.3 | 3.9

2009 | 2.8 | 1.8 [/table]

 

Cabrera:

[table] year | WAR (FG) | WARP (BP) |

2008 | 0.1 | 0.3 |

2009 | 1.6 | 1.9 | [/table]

 

Ellsbury is definitely the more valuable of the two, but Melky was still a suitable OF for a team with so much firepower. He would be a likeable player if he weren't on the Yankees.

 

 

*As for Ellsbury putting it together, in 2009 he had a Park Adjusted Runs Above Average of 11.8--that puts him at 5th among qualified MLB CFs:

 

1. Kemp: 23.2

2. Hunter: 21.4

3. Span: 18.4

4. Victorino: 12.5

5. Ellsbury: 11.8

6. McLouth: 10.9

7. Cameron: 9.8

8. Bourn: 8.6

9. Sizemore: 7.3

10. Ross: 6.8

 

Although in 2009 he had a poor fielding year (-16.5), in 2008 he was able to score a 16.5 in the field. If he can combine a top ten fielding year with a top five offensive year, this guy would be a truly elite weapon. Seeing that he produced offensively above McLouth and close to Victornio reminds me that he's a pretty special player.

 

It really looked like by the end of the season Ellsbury was much more comfortable and had found his prefered approach at the plate. It works pretty well for the leadoff spot and I think he will become a better leadoff hitter over the years as he sees more pitches.

 

This club would be foolish to not build aggressively around the core of home-grown talent in their primes and pre-primes right now.

[Dipre]

^I don't get the enormous post if you agree with me.

[Dojji]

He's just nailing it down with corroborating evidence.

 

II think we've pretty much wrung this one dry.

[a700hitter]

^I don't get the enormous post if you agree with me.

He over-analyzes everything. That's not meant as a shot. It's not a bad thing.

[BSN07]

Do you really believe this? I guess I do too' date=' but their seasons this year were close, and Ellsbury is a year older and seems to [i']not have put it all together yet.*[/i]

 

We all see that he had a better offensive season than 2008, but his defensive performance really hurt his overall value, according both to fangraph's WAR rating and BP's WARP:

 

Ellsbury:

[table] year | WAR (FG) | WARP (BP)|

2008 | 3.3 | 3.9

2009 | 2.8 | 1.8 [/table]

 

Cabrera:

[table] year | WAR (FG) | WARP (BP) |

2008 | 0.1 | 0.3 |

2009 | 1.6 | 1.9 | [/table]

 

Ellsbury is definitely the more valuable of the two, but Melky was still a suitable OF for a team with so much firepower. He would be a likeable player if he weren't on the Yankees.

 

 

*As for Ellsbury putting it together, in 2009 he had a Park Adjusted Runs Above Average of 11.8--that puts him at 5th among qualified MLB CFs:

 

1. Kemp: 23.2

2. Hunter: 21.4

3. Span: 18.4

4. Victorino: 12.5

5. Ellsbury: 11.8

6. McLouth: 10.9

7. Cameron: 9.8

8. Bourn: 8.6

9. Sizemore: 7.3

10. Ross: 6.8

 

Although in 2009 he had a poor fielding year (-16.5), in 2008 he was able to score a 16.5 in the field. If he can combine a top ten fielding year with a top five offensive year, this guy would be a truly elite weapon. Seeing that he produced offensively above McLouth and close to Victornio reminds me that he's a pretty special player.

 

It really looked like by the end of the season Ellsbury was much more comfortable and had found his prefered approach at the plate. It works pretty well for the leadoff spot and I think he will become a better leadoff hitter over the years as he sees more pitches.

 

This club would be foolish to not build aggressively around the core of home-grown talent in their primes and pre-primes right now.

Great post. I agree Melky being on the Yankees provokes an instant biased first opinion for me personally. So maybe it be better to wait until he isn't on the Yankees anymore I am glad to finally see someone else recognizing what Ellsbury is. I took some lumps last season when backing him. I was called crazy for thinking the Sox should not try and upgrade the CF position. Ellsbury is coming into his own IMO. I think this guy has very under rated power, that I think will make itself more present down over the next couple seasons.

 

 

Que Kilo to come in and start the Ells hating

^I don't get the enormous post if you agree with me.

 

It's his way of putting a nice little bow on top of things You know this man:thumbsup:

[example1]

He over-analyzes everything. That's not meant as a shot. It's not a bad thing.

 

This is like your new phrase toward me. I don't appreciate it too much, although I realize it isn't meant as a shot.

 

I suppose I could stop researching stuff and just posting opinion like 75% of the others on this board do.

 

Ellsbury's great.

 

No, Melky's great.

 

Red Sox Rule!

 

Yankees Rule!

 

No, they don't, Red Sox do.

 

No, it's the Yankees, actually.

 

They're comparable.

 

How can you compare them, one rules, the other doesn't...

 

On and on it goes...

 

 

DIPRE, I agree with you that Ellsbury is better.

 

We disagree that they are not "comparable". Both of them are above replacement, both of them are regular CFs on 95+ win teams, neither would be there if they totally sucked. Both are young (Melky is younger).

 

I think they are entirely comparable and that comparison takes looking at impact in terms of either runs above average or wins above average, not simply their counting stats or rate stats. Offensive and defensive contributions, where they hit in the lineup, age, cost, all of them are fair game.

 

Sorry if my over analysis is tiresome for you guys. The discussion and back-and-forth gets pretty old to me, especially when I'm the only one on this board who actually goes to the advanced metrics to put some numbers to the discussion.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Sorry if my over analysis is tiresome for you guys. The discussion and back-and-forth gets pretty old to me' date=' especially when I'm the only one on this board who actually goes to the advanced metrics to put some numbers to the discussion.[/quote']

 

Not at all, I'd say people complaining about other people over-analyzing stuff is much more tiresome.

[BSN07]

 

Sorry if my over analysis is tiresome for you guys. The discussion and back-and-forth gets pretty old to me, especially when I'm the only one on this board who actually goes to the advanced metrics to put some numbers to the discussion.

 

 

F them lol I like it!

[Dipre]

This is like your new phrase toward me. I don't appreciate it too much, although I realize it isn't meant as a shot.

 

I suppose I could stop researching stuff and just posting opinion like 75% of the others on this board do.

 

Ellsbury's great.

 

No, Melky's great.

 

Red Sox Rule!

 

Yankees Rule!

 

No, they don't, Red Sox do.

 

No, it's the Yankees, actually.

 

They're comparable.

 

How can you compare them, one rules, the other doesn't...

 

On and on it goes...

 

 

DIPRE, I agree with you that Ellsbury is better.

 

We disagree that they are not "comparable". Both of them are above replacement, both of them are regular CFs on 95+ win teams, neither would be there if they totally sucked. Both are young (Melky is younger).

 

I think they are entirely comparable and that comparison takes looking at impact in terms of either runs above average or wins above average, not simply their counting stats or rate stats. Offensive and defensive contributions, where they hit in the lineup, age, cost, all of them are fair game.

 

Sorry if my over analysis is tiresome for you guys. The discussion and back-and-forth gets pretty old to me, especially when I'm the only one on this board who actually goes to the advanced metrics to put some numbers to the discussion.

 

The comparison was made strictly on what they bring to the table offensively.

 

Ellsbury is much better than Melky offensively, and this is not an "opinion".

 

If you go through the stats you'll notice that Ellsbury leads him in every meaningful offensive category while K'ing less, walking more, and stealing 60 more bases, while hitting first in the Sox lineup.

[ehaz]

I'd actually hit Oritz 6th and V-Mart 7th.

 

Otherwise, it's perfect.

 

I'd go as far to just switch Ortiz and Drew. Well, if Ortiz struggles like he did last season that's what I would do. JD had too good of a season to waste him in the 8 spot. Ortiz never really got on base.

[Dojji]

Does anyone else see a bounceback year for Big Papi next season? For the first time in what, three years, he finished the season healthy. maybe instead of focusing on rehabbing this and surgery on that he can actually go into his normal offseason preparations this year and actually put a last hurrah together.

[bsox0407]

Does anyone else see a bounceback year for Big Papi next season? For the first time in what' date=' three years, he finished the season healthy. maybe instead of focusing on rehabbing this and surgery on that he can actually go into his normal offseason preparations this year and actually put a last hurrah together.[/quote']

 

i see he does what he usually does.

 

i also read this about something he told the Herald.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1209255&format=text

[Rdsxmbnt]

Do you really believe this? I guess I do too' date=' but their seasons this year were close, and Ellsbury is a year older and seems to [i']not have put it all together yet.*[/i]

 

We all see that he had a better offensive season than 2008, but his defensive performance really hurt his overall value, according both to fangraph's WAR rating and BP's WARP:

 

Ellsbury:

[table] year | WAR (FG) | WARP (BP)|

2008 | 3.3 | 3.9

2009 | 2.8 | 1.8 [/table]

 

Cabrera:

[table] year | WAR (FG) | WARP (BP) |

2008 | 0.1 | 0.3 |

2009 | 1.6 | 1.9 | [/table]

 

 

Just as a side note, I'm beginning to doubt some of the validity of WARP due to the huge dependency on FRAA. There is absolutely no way Ellsbury was a -17 FRAA player after a +19 year last year. That's like a 3-4 win swing based on defense alone and is in no way representative of the difference in Ellsbury's fielding over the consecutive years.

[rhet]

Trying to hit through the shift is killing him. We don't need a .220 hitting DH who only occasionally crushes a ball. If he doesn't use the whole field next year, he'll find himself on the bench.

[Dipre]

Trying to hit through the shift is killing him. We don't need a .220 hitting DH who only occasionally crushes a ball. If he doesn't use the whole field next year' date=' he'll find himself on the bench.[/quote']

 

That's what he did after he broke out around mid-May.

 

He smashed a LOT OF BALLS to left.