Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[rhet]

Just as a side note' date=' I'm beginning to doubt some of the validity of WARP due to the huge dependency on FRAA. There is absolutely no way Ellsbury was a -17 FRAA player after a +19 year last year. That's like a 3-4 win swing based on defense alone and is in no way representative of the difference in Ellsbury's fielding over the consecutive years.[/quote']

 

It's one of the metrics I'd put in the 'suspect' category. Good to consider if there is no conflicting evidence.

[rhet]

That's what he did after he broke out around mid-May.

 

He smashed a LOT OF BALLS to left.

 

Not nearly enough.

[Dipre]

It's one of the metrics I'd put in the 'suspect' category. Good to consider if there is no conflicting evidence.

 

Honest question.

 

Do you think Melky and Jacoby are "comparable" offensively?

[rhet]

Honest question.

 

Do you think Melky and Jacoby are "comparable" offensively?

 

No. Not even in the same league.

 

Honestly, Ellsbury might be a borderline all star, while Melky is a 4th outfielder.

[Dipre]

No. Not even in the same league.

 

Honestly, Ellsbury might be a borderline all star, while Melky is a 4th outfielder.

 

The defense rests.

[Spudboy]

That's what he did after he broke out around mid-May.

 

He smashed a LOT OF BALLS to left.

 

We had a similar discussion about Papi being a dead pull hitter recently. Someone posted a link to a spray chart. It may have been Dipre. Anway, the chart showed tons of balls hit to left and left center.

[Dipre]

We had a similar discussion about Papi being a dead pull hitter recently. Someone posted a link to a spray chart. It may have been Dipre. Anway' date=' the chart showed tons of balls hit to left and left center.[/quote']

 

I did post the chart.

 

It showed that through his slump, he was pulling everything, but then he started spraying a lot more.

[26 to 6]

The Pirates just traded Jesse Chavez to the Rays for Aki Iwamura. Good deal for both sides I think, especially Pittsburgh. I like Iwamura a lot, he's a solid, fundamentally sound player.

 

per Buster Olney

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4620529

[Keeper]

I like Iwamura as well. I also like saying his full name. Akinori Iwamura. Awesome name.

 

Guess this means Ben Zobrist will become the Rays' everyday 2nd baseman.

[bsox0407]

I like Iwamura as well. I also like saying his full name. Akinori Iwamura. Awesome name.

 

Guess this means Ben Zobrist will become the Rays' everyday 2nd baseman.

 

not a bad trade Iwamura is a really good player.

[26 to 6]

Also, idk if this thread is meant for strictly Red sox hot stove talk, or Hot Stove discussion in general. Until someone says otherwise, I'm going to assume the latter. In that case, Jon Heyman is reporting that the Yankees will give Johnny Damon a 2-year deal after the World Series.

 

GREAT! We get noodle-arm out there for another 2 years. Lovely. As much as I like the job he's done this season, I think it's time for Johnny to go. I would be open to keeping him around for ONE more year, at MOST. 2 years is ridiculous though. At least go with 1 year guaranteed and an option. All I see Damon doing over the next 2 years is continuing to break down.

[TheMino007]

If Matsui isn't coming back, couldn't the Yanks DH Damon and sign Holliday/Bay to play LF?

[Spudboy]

Also, idk if this thread is meant for strictly Red sox hot stove talk, or Hot Stove discussion in general. Until someone says otherwise, I'm going to assume the latter. In that case, Jon Heyman is reporting that the Yankees will give Johnny Damon a 2-year deal after the World Series.

 

GREAT! We get noodle-arm out there for another 2 years. Lovely. As much as I like the job he's done this season, I think it's time for Johnny to go. I would be open to keeping him around for ONE more year, at MOST. 2 years is ridiculous though. At least go with 1 year guaranteed and an option. All I see Damon doing over the next 2 years is continuing to break down.

 

Breakdown?

 

I think I read that he averages 140 games a year. Maybe the Globe was wrong.

[TheMino007]

Yeah, Johnny plays a lot of games. He is hurt a lot, but give the guy credit he is out there a lot more times than not.

[example1]

The comparison was made strictly on what they bring to the table offensively.

 

Ellsbury is much better than Melky offensively, and this is not an "opinion".

 

If you go through the stats you'll notice that Ellsbury leads him in every meaningful offensive category while K'ing less, walking more, and stealing 60 more bases, while hitting first in the Sox lineup.

 

^I don't get the enormous post if you agree with me.

 

[Cocos Disciples]

Also, idk if this thread is meant for strictly Red sox hot stove talk, or Hot Stove discussion in general. Until someone says otherwise, I'm going to assume the latter. In that case, Jon Heyman is reporting that the Yankees will give Johnny Damon a 2-year deal after the World Series.

 

GREAT! We get noodle-arm out there for another 2 years. Lovely. As much as I like the job he's done this season, I think it's time for Johnny to go. I would be open to keeping him around for ONE more year, at MOST. 2 years is ridiculous though. At least go with 1 year guaranteed and an option. All I see Damon doing over the next 2 years is continuing to break down.

 

Since it's in the Red Sox forum, I'll say just for Sox. I'll make another off-season thread in general.

[example1]

Also, idk if this thread is meant for strictly Red sox hot stove talk, or Hot Stove discussion in general. Until someone says otherwise, I'm going to assume the latter. In that case, Jon Heyman is reporting that the Yankees will give Johnny Damon a 2-year deal after the World Series.

 

GREAT! We get noodle-arm out there for another 2 years. Lovely. As much as I like the job he's done this season, I think it's time for Johnny to go. I would be open to keeping him around for ONE more year, at MOST. 2 years is ridiculous though. At least go with 1 year guaranteed and an option. All I see Damon doing over the next 2 years is continuing to break down.

 

I hope this is true. Regardless of the deal, its early completion indicates that the Yankees might be content 'just' winning the World Series and actually leave some FAs for everyone else.

[Dipre]

 

You're old-timey.

 

That is all.

[example1]

Just as a side note' date=' I'm beginning to doubt some of the validity of WARP due to the huge dependency on FRAA. There is absolutely no way Ellsbury was a -17 FRAA player after a +19 year last year. That's like a 3-4 win swing based on defense alone and is in no way representative of the difference in Ellsbury's fielding over the consecutive years.[/quote']

 

I agree about the swing in defensive value. I have a hard time seeing where it comes from, though it could be nothing more than a missed ball here, a poor read there, maybe nothing more than one miscue every 10 games would make that difference but wouldn't be obvious to the eye.

 

I think the only way to remedy this situation would be to look at other defensive measures and see what they say. I can only go with the best metrics available. In general I would say that's the best way to use these metrics.

 

There was an interview last week, I believe on WEEI (I downloaded the podcast) with Keith Law. And he pointed out that while he doesn't put a whole lot of value in any one metric as the gold standard (WARP, WAR, VORP, etc.,), he does find it useful to look at multiple metrics to discern trends and commonalities.

 

In other words, if a player looks more valuable in all metrics, they were probably more valuable.

 

As far as defense goes, if a player's defense has regressed in multiple different systems, chances are that's a fault of the player's defense, not the metric measuring him.

 

There was also an article from Michael Silverman last week (the one that discussed the Sox-Beltran potential) that mentioned basically that the Sox didn't necessarily believe the defensive metrics reporting that Ellsbury was a poor defender.

 

I would love to see their internal measurements, because his defensive #s hurt his value both in WARP and WAR.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Matsui isn't coming back' date=' couldn't the Yanks DH Damon and sign Holliday/Bay to play LF?[/quote']

 

Very possible.

 

IMO, NY doesnt need to do much aside from solidify the #3 spot in the rotation with either Pettitte or Lackey. LF is a luxury, especially when you have a guy like Jackson in the wings and a guy like Montero sitting in the mid season callup range as a potential DH/backup catcher. Holliday would be a great play if we needed a middle of the order bat, but we really don't. A lineup starting with Jeter/Damon/Tex/ARod/Posada/Cano/Swisher is not bad at all. And having the chance to infuse some youth in our OF is a good idea. Especially when you consider how easy it is to find a useful OFer at the trade deadline. Obviously not one of Holliday's caliber, but a useful one none-the-less

[BSN07]

Olney guesses that the Yankees won't tender Chien-Ming Wang a contract, but they may decide to pursue another starter through trade or free agency.

 

All Yankee bias aside. Would Wang be worth a flier? I mean if he's healthy, maybe he just needs a different environment. Maybe sticking it to his old team is just the thing to light a fire under his ass:dunno:

Just a thought.

[TheMino007]

I'd take a chance on Wang, assuming that his problems last year were pretty much caused by his injury problems and not a mechanics thing or the fact that he could just be cooked

[Dojji]

With all the success Wang had in the AL East, I'd take a flier on him. I mean this is his first year that was even bad.

 

that said, I wouldn't exactly put myself in a position where I had to count on Wang as a rotation staple. We all know how flukey his numbers were.

[Dipre]

I didn't like Wang before, and i like him less now.

[Lester82]

off topic ....

 

anybody reading this funny twitter?

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Wang is a buy low candidate. Coming off shoulder surgery, you have to expect his stuff to worsen. But, he wasnt much of a stuff guy to begin with. He was a one pitch pitcher. If he comes back and throws low 90s instead of mid 90s with the same sink, then he'll be useful again. If that sink goes away, then he's absolutely useless. That is what we saw at the beginning of the yr.

[BSN07]

Wang is a buy low candidate. Coming off shoulder surgery' date=' you have to expect his stuff to worsen. [b'] But, he wasnt much of a stuff guy to begin with. He was a one pitch pitcher[/b]. If he comes back and throws low 90s instead of mid 90s with the same sink, then he'll be useful again. If that sink goes away, then he's absolutely useless. That is what we saw at the beginning of the yr.

 

:lol:

 

Didn't you argue he was a top 3 SP in the league before his injury?

[Dipre]

:lol:

 

Didn't you argue he was a top 3 SP in the league before his injury?

 

Hahahahaha very good BSN.

[jacksonianmarch]

:lol:

 

Didn't you argue he was a top 3 SP in the league before his injury?

 

I think I said top 5-10. Regardless, I have never said he was a guy with great stuff. He's a guy with one overpowering pitch and 2 mediocre pitches.

[Dojji]

you argued extensively here last year that Wang's stuff was amazing. I believe you compared it favorably to Josh Beckett's. Something about a pitcher surviving in the AL East with only a power sinker.