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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    Only because we don't know what the ask is: Arraez (moderately cheap) Neto (expensive) Someone cheap like Adell, Ward, maybe Steer, Maybe Bieber cheap?
  2. JoeBrady
    Half the site wanted to sign: Alonso for 5 years (1 year younger than Lindor) Bregman for 5 (4 months younger) Schwarber for 5 (8 months older) Lindor had a better year last year, and assuming the Mets subsidize, Lindor is considerably cheaper.
  3. JoeBrady
    If we are going to spend $20M on someone, they will be steadily aging as well. This is the same as any acquisition.
  4. JoeBrady
    That looks basically like you are adding Soriano and Adell. Adell is okay, but not worth much. Soriano started off like Pedro, but has reverted in his last 15 games. I'd stick with the Mayer++/Neto construct.
  5. JoeBrady
    Undoubtedly true, but imho, the recency factor helps. Bregman's platform year was maybe a 4.0 bWAR, while Lindor looks more like 5.0. Alonso was more like 3.3. Assuming a similar decline by all of them, Lindor is worth a lot more. IRT Cohen's motivation, I've given up trying to analyze the NYMs. But there could be a money angle. Maybe Stearns wants a semi-top prospect and have another $34M to spend elsewhere.
  6. JoeBrady
    I think it usually revolves around the seller's motivation. Trading Neto is bad optics. That's Moreno's acknowledgement that LAA is poorly run. But the Mets can spin a Lindor trade like Cohen is spending $50-100M to buy a better future. None of it has to be true, but it's nice to have a story for the wife press.
  7. JoeBrady
    Casual observations- It feels like we've been fortunate with our BP. Winning this many in row requires a lot of use from your top guys. It looks like we've been able to stagger them a little. I'd like to see out TBD pitch a complete game shutout, but I wouldn't mind seeing Bello either. It seems like too long between appearances. I'd like to see him maintain his mental sharpness.
  8. JoeBrady
    Fair comment. Let's say you had exactly $20M to spend over the next 4 years. How would you spend it, and what type of bWAR return would you expect?
  9. JoeBrady
    I didn't go back too far, because I'm not sure it's relevant, but he had a bad May in 2022, 2023 and 2024, and had a bad June in 2021. Maybe this is his 'dead arm' period.
  10. JoeBrady
    We aren't taking Lindor's full contract. And that has nothing to do with JH, and more to do with his accountants. If you spend $22M on something, that's $22M less you have to spend on something else. My wife already told me that, if I buy the Rembrandt, I can't have the Caravaggio.
  11. JoeBrady
    Just for fun, much conjecture, and piggy-backing on the Lindor thread, our two choices might look like: Lindor-Assuming the NYM kick in $70M, then my estimate is that we get 18 bWAR from Lindor for $100M. Mayer is a constant in both trades, so in this scenario, we also throw in Philips. Neto-We get 15 bWAR for maybe $65M, but requires us throwing in Eyanson. Assuming both are acceptable clubhouse presences, this feels fairly even. I would do either one if these are the correct parameters.
  12. JoeBrady
    I would do that (on paper), but I'd be surprised if the NYM did it. He's not a kid, but the recency factor suggests he should be top-tier for a year or two. If he declines by year 4 & 5, $20-22M is still not that onerous. IRT Arias, I still think he is a late-2027 player. And if we still love Arias at SS, Lindor might still have some trade value.
  13. JoeBrady
    Nice play by the LAD as well. Muncy didn't panic when the runners broke for home. They handled the rundown perfectly. And when the runner fell down in front of Betts, instead of trying to reset, he threw the ball flat-footed to 2nd.
  14. JoeBrady
    I'd be surprised if the Mets moved him. It just feels like a tanking if they do. Not sure why, but Lindor rubs me the wrong way.
  15. JoeBrady
    Yes. There are holes in Neto's game, but that's pretty value.
  16. JoeBrady
    Don't remember. It had SBF on it, and think Law and Softlaw.
  17. JoeBrady
    I use to try to explain mathematical concepts to him, until I realized that he didn't care. It was 2007, and we had gone 12-13 in our toughest stretch of the year. 16 of 25 games on the road and 18 of the 25 against teams > .500. The NYY then had a stretch where I think 18 of their 21 games were against last place teams. Of course the NYY picked up some games. That's the way math worked. But he just wanted to bash the RS. Then we went into Chicago against a reeling WS team and took 4 straight, and then we hit up some last place teams and beat them up. Because that's the way math worked . And the rest of it, as they say, was history.
  18. JoeBrady
    I thought you were commenting on the Py remark
  19. JoeBrady
    119.2 in 2025, including the RS. Using the usual +30 formula, and ignoring the injury, we theoretically have 58 IPs left. Good for at least 10 starts, and we are unlikely to see him until August.
  20. JoeBrady
    Unlikely that the O's are ready to concede.
  21. JoeBrady
    A lot of people want to be a bro, but don't to be THE bro. I think we had a lot of attitude when Papi was here, but Papi made that easier for everyone.
  22. JoeBrady
    Not altogether. Seen from a more intuitive perspective: If you are scoring 20% more than the average team, are you not an above-average offensive team? If your ERA is 20% lower than the average team, are you not an above-average pitching team? If you have above-average hitting and pitching, but are below .500 because you are 1-8 in one-games, are you not still an above-average team?
  23. JoeBrady
    5/1/04-8/1/04 (incl) 41-41 5/29/07-7/31/07 28-27 When Fred called us the biggest chokers in history 4/30/13-5/31/13 15-16 Late 2018 about .500 I think people vastly under-estimate how easy it is to 1-2 months with a .500 or worse record. A 10-game road trip, then a 6-game homestand against tough teams, followed by a 9-game road trip. Add in a few one-runs losses, and you can almost expect some negative (and positive) variance. There are formulas for this which I won't bore you with (since I don't know them), but if you flipped a coin 162 times, there is a decent chance it will come out with the same result 6-7 times in a row. Just for fun, the LAD, from 7/4-9/6, went 22-32.
  24. JoeBrady
    I don't think Early and Suarez are innings-challenged. If my math is correct, we can easily get another 10-11 GS from Early. I'd like to see a few piggy-back games with Tolle-Bello and Bennett-Bello. Bello could actually pitch twice through each rotation. It's a heck of a long-shot to work, but it could extend all three pitchers until September.
  25. JoeBrady
    Not bagging on Mayer, but he can go ion the right trade. But on a team that might be IP-challenged, I'd be hesitant in trading an SP. If Early's cap is maybe 150 IPs, he has ~ 60 IPs remaining. If he returns in mid-August, he has enough IPs to get thru the y/e with 10 starts of 6 innings each.
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