JoeBrady
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Everything posted by JoeBrady
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IMO, this is a winnable game. It's all small sample but Narvaez, Anthony, Story and Contreras have all had some success against Lauer. Abreu and Duran have only 8 ABs, but with a 2/2 K/W. No PAs by either Mayer or Durbin v Lauer. And most of the BP should be available.
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Nothing personal, but you are wasting your time. The same people that wanted to get rid of Mayer, Monasterio and Durbin, now want to bat them #3-4-5. Guys with his K/W and EV virtually always hit. Some fans refuse to acknowledge the numbers underlying the results.
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Nothing personal, but that is laughably wrong. BA and BP have been around a long time, and pay good money for scouts. The idea that they are salesmen with some type of vested interest in hyping Red Sox players is so wrong that I don't know how to process it.
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But if he does a hit a ton, we will win a lot more going forward. The timing of when guys hit doesn't impact the overall winning % of a team.
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This is a pet peeve of mine. RS fans (and some other teams as well) are always talking about team-supplied hype. While every team probably drops stories to their preferred writers, it is ultimately meaningless. BA, MLB, and BP didn't rank RA #2, #2, and #1 because the RS called them and asked 'pretty please' rank our guy #1.
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Everyone in baseball is doing this now, and actually do so earlier.
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It's frustrating, but I'm a fan of watching peripheral stats, In his last 14 games, RA has a 14/14 K/W. Even without my calculator, I am guessing that projects to 162/162 over 162 games. His launch angle is too low, but everyone with his EV hits a pretty fair amount of HRs. In 2025, Oneil Cruz, Wood, and Diaz are the players that resemble his EV/LA, and they averaged 25 HRs each.
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Which is fine. But I'm betting on future results.
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I assume that all these guys (just like ours) will revert some. But imagine a world in which we have: Bregman-Bichette-Alonso with their 0.5 bWAR and $101M salary, instead of Contreras-Suarez-Durbin with their 2.0 bWAR and $46M salary.
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You cannot possibly win this one. Giving a slumping player a day off is fine. That happens all the time. Benching a good hitter after a slow start almost never happens. Players on the bench don't adjust, and you will never get a signal that a hot streak is about to start. Just from guys on my fantasy teams, before and after splits: Naylor .390/1.210 JRod .503/.860 Raleigh .511/1.116 Turner .481/.756 Busch .377/.774 Tork .566/1.622 Jose Ramirez .464/.975 And I could easily find another 20 names. Players get hot, and players get cold. But they generally revert to their career numbers.
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I have no idea why, but I am forever interchanging those two names. But I expect Duran to out-perform Yoshida.
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Before the week is out, there will be calls for Mayer & Durbin to be our 3/4 hitters.
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Most of the team started off slow. I tend to think the idea of a hitting savant is overrated.
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In other words, it is early. And I agree. But the downside of veterans returning to form is that they will decline. If you don't get excess value in the first year or two, then you are really unlikely to catch up. If Bichette + Bregman combine for a 6 bWAR, and Mayer + Durbin combine for a 4.5, then B&B is an unmitigated disaster.
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A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I
JoeBrady replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
For the cost involved, Durbin is currently a better choice than Bichette, Paredes, or Marte. -
I doubt DD gets fired this year. Maybe next year.
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Over the past 14 days: Narvaez .945 Mayer .844 Monasterio .783 Durbin .726 Basically, the 4 players with the most complaints.
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No. I see very little chance that Yoshida provides more offense (including speed) than Abreu.
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You forgot Bichette instead of Durbin.
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No, no doubt in my mind.
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And the one hit was a soft s*** with the fielder playing way off the line.
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It also takes a long time to develop a fan base. Folks in LV are already fans of other teams. This will take time.
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105 pc. I wouldn't mind another inning, but I'm hoping Weissert can finish this off. Save a couple of bullets for tomorrow.
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FWIW, the Narvaez HR raised his OPS from .575 to .647. That'll give you some idea of the sample sizes we are dealing with.
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Bad move, imo. He had lost the zone in the previous inning, and was already close to 100 PC.
