2026 MLB post-Red Sox postseason thread

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't want to hear another announcer say a batter "ambushed" a pitcher. 

No batter ever hides behind a concealed position. He's standing there in the box with a bat in his hand, and the pitcher is throwing a hardball at him.

As a hitter, I'm up there to hit -- not take hittable pitches.

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I don't want to hear another announcer say a batter "ambushed" a pitcher. 

No batter ever hides behind a concealed position. He's standing there in the box with a bat in his hand, and the pitcher is throwing a hardball at him.

As a hitter, I'm up there to hit -- not take hittable pitches.

 

I don't think Snell could have anticipated that Chourio (25 HR, 130 wRC+, 4.6 fWAR) would be able to take him deep if he put the ball on a tee with the very first pitch. Seems unfair! 😤

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

This is meant for the posters who think we need power and stud bats to win, but anyone can feel free to pitch-in:

(...Oh wait... that's me, too!)

On paper, do these numbers satisfy the idea that this team's offense is "good enough?"

Top 9 batters in order by most PAs: (OPS, HRs)

.816, 21

.758 18

.874, 26

.837, 25

.771, 11

.692, 12

.730. 9

.650 4

.614, 4 

That's 3 guys under .693 and 4 under .730. Nobody with 30+ Hrs or even more than 26. (I will add that all of these top 5 players had OBPs above .341.) This is the Brewers- the team with the most wins.

______________________

.885, 42

.805, 22

.792, 22

.689, 0

.628, 15

.607, 2

.704, 10

.728, 11

.680, 6

Imagine the Sox having 4 of their top 9 batters under .690, 5 under .705 and 6 under .730. Yes, they had a big bopper, but also 3 guys with a total of 8 HRs and two others with 22 combined. These are the Rays top 9 batters.

CLE had a 42 HR batter and a couple w 22 HRs, but the other 6 had 15 or less, 5 with 11 or less and 3 with 8 HRs combined!

The team about to be swept had a 30 HR player and 6 guys with 16-29 HRs. Their 8-9 PA players had 18 HRs combined. No power outages on this team. They had no top 9 or even 10 batters with an OPS below .714. Only 2 of their top 10 batters had an OPS below .780.

Of course bats and bopper bats help win rings, but it's not the only thing.

[NHNative]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This is meant for the posters who think we need power and stud bats to win, but anyone can feel free to pitch-in:

(...Oh wait... that's me, too!)

On paper, do these numbers satisfy the idea that this team's offense is "good enough?"

Top 9 batters in order by most PAs: (OPS, HRs)

.816, 21

.758 18

.874, 26

.837, 25

.771, 11

.692, 12

.730. 9

.650 4

.614, 4 

That's 3 guys under .693 and 4 under .730. Nobody with 30+ Hrs or even more than 26. (I will add that all of these top 5 players had OBPs above .341.) This is the Brewers- the team with the most wins.

______________________

.885, 42

.805, 22

.792, 22

.689, 0

.628, 15

.607, 2

.704, 10

.728, 11

.680, 6

Imagine the Sox having 4 of their top 9 batters under .690, 5 under .705 and 6 under .730. Yes, they had a big bopper, but also 3 guys with a total of 8 HRs and two others with 22 combined. These are the Rays top 9 batters.

CLE had a 42 HR batter and a couple w 22 HRs, but the other 6 had 15 or less, 5 with 11 or less and 3 with 8 HRs combined!

The team about to be swept had a 30 HR player and 6 guys with 16-29 HRs. Their 8-9 PA players had 18 HRs combined. No power outages on this team. They had no top 9 or even 10 batters with an OPS below .714. Only 2 of their top 10 batters had an OPS below .780.

Of course bats and bopper bats help win rings, but it's not the only thing.

My answer is--its baseball and when all the pieces are playing very well, you can win---but having a big bat or two is not a negative to the outcome. Its an add, to whatever any particular core is...

No rocket scientists need apply.

One single home run can make the difference.

[drewski6]

19 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

You take your walks. You dont hunt em. You dont celebrate em.

That sounds a bit more nuanced.  But it is much more complex than that.  The very first objective is to know the strike zone and recognize the pitches.  The second is, when you are ahead on the count, NEVEN swing at a pitch you can't hit.

Other stuff like the score, your level of power, etc., all count.  But what I'd put 3rd is to simply swing as hard as you can at pitches in the zone.  If you swing at nothing but strikes (theoretically) it's fairly difficult to strike out.  Guys like Soto, Judge, Schwarber, etc.., prove this all the time.  They'll swing from the heels all the time, but seldom swing at bad pitches.

Its like a summation of someone who thought how to hit but has never spoken to a hitting coach or dived too deeply.

All of this, is wrong.

Nobody is trying to know the strike zone because nobody is trying to cover the strike zone anymore.  You keyhole your red zones.  

Also NEVER swing at a pitch you cant hit is bad strategy.  Its not about picking the pitches to not swing at because batters dont have the time to do that.  This implies that someone can like cover the whole zone , pick up spin, deduce where the ball is going and then decide whether or not to swing accordingly.

Its just not how its done, and its not how it should be done.  You are letting the ball get too deep before you are making your swing decision.  Like a QB has some stuff figured out befroe the ball is snapped, so must a hitter.  You are predicting.  You are trusting your predictions.  And the main thing going through your head is whether or not you guessed right.

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, notin said:

And I don’t care if they care.  I’m not out here pushing my baseball podcast (which doesn’t exist).

I will say, teams break things down far, far more than I do with my cursory research.  No team in MLB signs a player based on RBI totals on the hope they translate.  They used to go all in on EV and launch angle, but they’ve probably moved past that now and are on to scouting using DNA Sequencing Predispositions or something even freakier…

EV and launch angle are both heavily heavily correlated to meeting the ball out in front, starting your swing decision earlier.  The exact opposite of what Joe Brady is saying about how you have to know where the ball is going to wind up and you make sure you never bit, because that implies keeping the bat on your shoulder longer.

Which is why strikeouts are forgivable these days.  You want guys hunting their pitch and being aggressive.  Not making sure they dont swing until they know for certainty where the ball is going.

 

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Another of my pet peeves.  Top-ranked prospects get traded or they start.  Every team does this.  Trading Mayer I can understand.  But if you don't trade him, then you have to start him.  And no one is spending resources to bring in a Ketel Marte just in case Mayer doesn't work out.  You simply take your chances.

Not true.  Top prospects , because they have options, make for great depth.  And so you teach them multiple positions, thats how you make sure they dont get blocked.  Becuase the more gloves they carry, the more likely they can come up, when someone craps the bed or gets hurt.

THis is why they had to add the prospect promotion incentives.  Cuz teams were keeping guys down as long as possible becuase having major league caliber players with options in the minors is huge, so you dont have to play the waiver wire.

And this is also why positional versatility is going up.  Its about having options.  Thats whats in. Not deciding who plays what position , marrying the player to that position, and forcing him in and rolling the dice.

Thats just an excuse to not be aggressive in player acquisition.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I don't want to hear another announcer say a batter "ambushed" a pitcher. 

No batter ever hides behind a concealed position. He's standing there in the box with a bat in his hand, and the pitcher is throwing a hardball at him.

As a hitter, I'm up there to hit -- not take hittable pitches.

 

An ambush implies jumping on a pitch that a pitcher didnt expect you to swing at.  But I agree it shouldnt be a special term because it should be common sense.  But understand this is contra to the passive approach that some on here continue to say is the most important thing.

Like make 100% sure you never swing at balls. 

Modern hitting is in hitters count (and a 0-0 count is a hitters count) is keyholing your red zones.  So me Im a low ball hitter.  If Im ahead in the count or its 0-0, Im not swinging at anything high.  Cuz I suck at hitting them.  But if a pitcher thinks he can tempt me to swing at a ball, knowing my tendancies, and throws me a curve on a 0-0 count, "Ill get him to swing at a ball, hahaha" that pitch better bounce in front of the plate.  Because if its at my ankles, Im still driving it.  Cuz its where i was looking and its slow, adn im going to barrell it.  This is referring to ambushing the pitcher.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think Snell could have anticipated that Chourio (25 HR, 130 wRC+, 4.6 fWAR) would be able to take him deep if he put the ball on a tee with the very first pitch. Seems unfair! 😤

Exactly.

[drewski6]

20 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

So now the key to good hitting is taking pitches early in the count?  I kind of agree, but that doesn't sound like what you said yesterday.

No, you swing early in teh count.  Taking pitches for the sake of taking pitches is dumb.  

The only advantage of being ahead in teh count is so you can keyhole your red zones. You can keyhole your redzones in a 0-0 count.  

You are like the episode of family guy when they say boat or mysetery box and peter says ooh, ill take the mystery box, it may even be a boat!

When you get the pitch you are looking for, you swing.  Very often, thats the first pitch of an at-bat.  Its a mind game.  I always take the first pitch is too simple.  You may adjust based on pitcher tendancies and game flow.  

But your "always do this" rules and how you think you have it boiled down to a few simple universal truths is just not how the game is played.

A hitter is like a QB.  A QB has his progression in his head before the ball is snapped, using clues from teh defense like oh, they have a slow guy on a fast wr running a crossing route, im going to look there first, but if the safety stays in an underneath zone, that would imply I have one on one on the outside, so if the defense does that Im going over the top...

Its very similar with hitting.  This guy likes to throw first bitch curveballs, so Im going to look low and expect one, and if I get it, Im punishing it.  If its below the zone but not in the dirt, you dont take it thinking woohoo, I can go up 1-0.  When you guess right, you punish.  Its about trying to know whats coming.  Thats why tipping pitches is so bad.  If it a hitter knows a curve is coming, it doesnt matter if its slightly low or slightly in, hes going to punish it for extra bases.

[drewski6]

20 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Here are the walk leaders over the past 5 years:

Juan Soto    601
Kyle Schwarber    531
Aaron Judge    499
Shohei Ohtani    434
Matt Olson    405
Ian Happ    405
Bryce Harper    379
Freddie Freeman    360
Rafael Devers    360
Kyle Tucker    360
Yordan Alvarez    353

I'm not sure how disappointing that list is.

Look at Sotos face when he gets walked.  Hes disappointed.  The reason these guys draw so many walks is because the pitchers want to make sure that if they miss, they miss out the zone and not leave a hangar.  Cuz its getting deposited.  These guys draw walks BECAUSE they are aggressive.  

[drewski6]

20 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I've mentioned this before.  We were 28th in OBP in the 1-hole and #29th in the 2-hole.  So even though we were 16th in HRs in the 3-hole and 16th in the 4-hole, we still wound up being 28/29th in scoring in the 1st inning.

we were fine in obp.  We had very good pitching, defense , and bb, and k numbers. But we didnt drive enough gaps, hit enough doubles, triples, or homeruns.  I agree that HRs arent the be all end all, because when you look exclusively at HRs you underestimate the awesomeness of doubles and triples.

But singles and walks aint it.

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Feller was clocked at 98, but that was clocked crossing home plate, not leaving his hand, like it is today.

Yup, and for that, they add another 10 mph, though I doubt that Feller has a true 108.  Same when they clocked Walter Johnson.  They clocked him at the end, and it was still high.

[Old Red]

47 minutes ago, NHNative said:

My answer is--its baseball and when all the pieces are playing very well, you can win---but having a big bat or two is not a negative to the outcome. Its an add, to whatever any particular core is...

No rocket scientists need apply.

One single home run can make the difference.

Well said, and I agree.

[Old Red]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This is meant for the posters who think we need power and stud bats to win, but anyone can feel free to pitch-in:

(...Oh wait... that's me, too!)

On paper, do these numbers satisfy the idea that this team's offense is "good enough?"

Top 9 batters in order by most PAs: (OPS, HRs)

.816, 21

.758 18

.874, 26

.837, 25

.771, 11

.692, 12

.730. 9

.650 4

.614, 4 

That's 3 guys under .693 and 4 under .730. Nobody with 30+ Hrs or even more than 26. (I will add that all of these top 5 players had OBPs above .341.) This is the Brewers- the team with the most wins.

______________________

.885, 42

.805, 22

.792, 22

.689, 0

.628, 15

.607, 2

.704, 10

.728, 11

.680, 6

Imagine the Sox having 4 of their top 9 batters under .690, 5 under .705 and 6 under .730. Yes, they had a big bopper, but also 3 guys with a total of 8 HRs and two others with 22 combined. These are the Rays top 9 batters.

CLE had a 42 HR batter and a couple w 22 HRs, but the other 6 had 15 or less, 5 with 11 or less and 3 with 8 HRs combined!

The team about to be swept had a 30 HR player and 6 guys with 16-29 HRs. Their 8-9 PA players had 18 HRs combined. No power outages on this team. They had no top 9 or even 10 batters with an OPS below .714. Only 2 of their top 10 batters had an OPS below .780.

Of course bats and bopper bats help win rings, but it's not the only thing.

Your answer to pretty much everything is OPS. Once again Con Man had a higher OPS than Alonso, and Flintstone, but Alonso, and Flintstone had more homers, RBI, and TB.Break the OPS down, and you may have a better argument, but just using OPS does not.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

we were fine in obp. 

The top of the order was not fine by any metric. If they can fix hitters 1-4, the rest of the lineup will fall into place. They don't have the correct guys on the 40 man to have a decent 1-4. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

The top of the order was not fine by any metric. If they can fix hitters 1-4, the rest of the lineup will fall into place. They don't have the correct guys on the 40 man to have a decent 1-4. 

My point is that the approach is wrong.  If you have the correct approach, the OBP will come.  But the correct approach is not to wait as long as possible to start your swing.  And its not to make sure that you walk more than you strikeout.  And its not to sell out for OBP.  Homeruns , doubles, and triples help the OBP too.

This team needs to get more aggressive, not less.  And the OBP will improve.  Like I was saying to Joe.  Elite hitters draw a lot of walks because they swing and crush everything swing and crushable.  You dont give Soto 700m so he can leave the bat on his shoulders.  But he'll draw a lot of walks becasue pitchers against  him are scared to leave one in a hittable location, and so if they miss they miss far away from teh plate.  So drawing the walk becomes easy, but disappointing if you are a Mets fan or Soto.

I dont hate OBP.  I hate celebrating walks and these little K/W yesteryear metrics that some still use.

If you are hitting in the top 5, even one.  You should be hunting for extra base hits.  Not hunting walks.  Because a leadoff double is a bunt him over and a sac him in. 1-0 after the first.  

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The top of the order was not fine by any metric. If they can fix hitters 1-4, the rest of the lineup will fall into place. They don't have the correct guys on the 40 man to have a decent 1-4. 

And part of the reason why the top of the order was not fine is because they didnt go into the year with enough top of the order bats.  Something youve astutely pointed out and I agree with.  To start the year guys like Abreu, Story, Adley (just pretend he was here to start the year), even Cedanne, Durbin, Sogard....These are not guys who you want 1-4.  Maybe Roman but he hasnt exactly proven that over a long haul and proven he can stay healthy enough to be relied on.  So really they had one proven top 4 hitter in COntreras.  Liek I was saying, you want to go into the season wiht 6-8 guys who can hit top 4.  Because then when you inevitably lose some to injury, you still have a powerful top 4.

This is why I want depth of good hitters, even guys who we can park in the minors.  This is stuff that youve mentioned and I think you explain it even better than me.  Like when you talk about how having options is so valuable. We dont know the twists / turns of the season, so a guy like Gasper next year ,who has options...Is so valuable because we can park him in the minors. And you know what? Ditto Arias.  

Unlike Joe Brady who last year was saying the most important thing we can do in teh offseason is not block Casas.  ANd the year before that he was screaming the most important thing is to not block KC.  And now hes back saying the same ole, playing the hits, talking about how teams need to play the kids and clear out spots.

[notin]

46 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Look at Sotos face when he gets walked.  Hes disappointed.  The reason these guys draw so many walks is because the pitchers want to make sure that if they miss, they miss out the zone and not leave a hangar.  Cuz its getting deposited.  These guys draw walks BECAUSE they are aggressive.  

Some, yes.

Schwarber, for example, was drawing tons of walks before he became a topflight hitter.  He’s a patient hitter with a good eye who is willing to strike out while he waits for his pitch.

Happ does similar, but strikes out less than Schwarber.  Also he swears loud enough to be heard on TV every time he pops up. (Random, unrelated fact.)

Soto always had a good eye, but yes, I think pitchers prefer walking him to letting him swing.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Some, yes.

Schwarber, for example, was drawing tons of walks before he became a topflight hitter.  He’s a patient hitter with a good eye who is willing to strike out while he waits for his pitch.

Happ does similar, but strikes out less than Schwarber.  Also he swears loud enough to be heard on TV every time he pops up. (Random, unrelated fact.)

Soto always had a good eye, but yes, I think pitchers prefer walking him to letting him swing.

Ill take it.

[JoeBrady]

59 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

On paper, do these numbers satisfy the idea that this team's offense is "good enough?"

You left off the LAD, for obvious reasons, but they did quite well without the big bopper in the middle of the lineup.  Ohtani had a relatively low team-leading 30 HRs, 3 more than Contreras.  Where we saw the biggest difference is that they had their power spread across the entire lineup.  They had 7 players with 16 or more HRs.  We only had 4.  They had 9 in double digits and we had only 6.  Basically, they could put three hitters at the bottom of the lineup that hit 38 HRs, while our bottom three totaled 16.  It's a crude comparison but one can see the discrepancies.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The top of the order was not fine by any metric. If they can fix hitters 1-4, the rest of the lineup will fall into place. They don't have the correct guys on the 40 man to have a decent 1-4. 

This has been my point all season. The Rays top three guys are better than the Sox top three -- not just because of homers, but because they're better hitters period. That right there is a big reason Tampa won the East. The Rays' batters who get the most at bats are good and the Red Sox' guys wish they were.

If Roman Anthony is ever fighting for a batting title or crushing 40 HRs like pundits predict(ed), he can bat 3rd to drive in other good hitters -- if they ever get more.

[JoeBrady]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

Soto always had a good eye, but yes, I think pitchers prefer walking him to letting him swing.

Which is why these guys are less than the sum of the parts.  The gross numbers are often pretty.  But with the game on the line, you can work around the big sluggers.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You left off the LAD, for obvious reasons, but they did quite well without the big bopper in the middle of the lineup.  Ohtani had a relatively low team-leading 30 HRs, 3 more than Contreras.  Where we saw the biggest difference is that they had their power spread across the entire lineup.  They had 7 players with 16 or more HRs.  We only had 4.  They had 9 in double digits and we had only 6.  Basically, they could put three hitters at the bottom of the lineup that hit 38 HRs, while our bottom three totaled 16.  It's a crude comparison but one can see the discrepancies.

I did mention the Dodgers and gave about the same numbers you just gave.

[drewski6]

15 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You left off the LAD, for obvious reasons, but they did quite well without the big bopper in the middle of the lineup.  Ohtani had a relatively low team-leading 30 HRs, 3 more than Contreras.  Where we saw the biggest difference is that they had their power spread across the entire lineup.  They had 7 players with 16 or more HRs.  We only had 4.  They had 9 in double digits and we had only 6.  Basically, they could put three hitters at the bottom of the lineup that hit 38 HRs, while our bottom three totaled 16.  It's a crude comparison but one can see the discrepancies.

I wonder if this holds up on total xtra base hits as well.  Less guys with huge numbers but more guys with solid numbers.

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This has been my point all season. The Rays top three guys are better than the Sox top three -- not just because of homers, but because they're better hitters period. That right there is a big reason Tampa won the East. The Rays' batters who get the most at bats are good and the Red Sox' guys wish they were.

If Roman Anthony is ever fighting for a batting title or crushing 40 HRs like pundits predict(ed), he can bat 3rd to drive in other good hitters -- if they ever get more.

But he doesnt really meet the ball out in front, and therefore his LA's leave something to be desired.  I assume its correctable.  He needs to stay healthy and be more attack on the plate.  I assume that if he can stay healthy the swing will get worked out.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Which is why strikeouts are forgivable these days.

Strikeouts are only forgivable if you are taking walks.  Almost no hitter survives with a bad K/W.  Of the 42 batters with an OPS > .800 in the past 5 years, 36 of them had a BB/K of > 40%.  Of the top-19, all of them had a BB/K > 40%.

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Which is why these guys are less than the sum of the parts.  The gross numbers are often pretty.  But with the game on the line, you can work around the big sluggers.

Thats why you need 2. They always said Manny hitting behind him prevents you from pitching around Ortiz.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Your answer to pretty much everything is OPS. Once again Con Man had a higher OPS than Alonso, and Flintstone, but Alonso, and Flintstone had more homers, RBI, and TB.Break the OPS down, and you may have a better argument, but just using OPS does not.

Ummm, I didn't use just OPS. I listed HRs, and many times have used runs scored- just not this time.

OBP and SLG are both large drivers in having a good offense. I know adding the two equally is not perfect as some parts get duplicated while others get less attention that they deserve, but to me, it tells a better story than any other singular offensive stat/metric.

HRs alone doesn't

RBIs alone doesn't

BA doesnt.

OBP is better than any above and so is SLG.

Both those stats miss the PA totals so can be deceptive. A 1.000 OPS guy with 300 PAs is not as helpful as a 600 PA guy with 30 HRs and 100 RBI. I get that.

To me OPS and wRC+ are the two best stats for offense, but not many understand wRC+, so I avoid using it much.

IMO, WAR is the best single number that can be used to evaluate the total value of a player. Personally, I like averaging bWAR with fWAR, but that takes too much time and effort.