A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, drewski6 said:

then watching an offense noodlebat its way into hard to watch territory.

And again, we got okay/good players.  The RS issue wasn't Contreras + Durbin.  It was Duran + Story + Narvaez.

Now, had anyone suggested that we bring in players to replace those three guys, I'd have disagreed, but still acknowledged they were right.  But even if one prefers Alonso's .884 over Contreras' .901, because Alonso's SLG was 6 points higher, there was never going be a material difference.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, notin said:

He fell off dramatically after a decent first year, and wound up fetching a34 yo career backup catcher in a trade that ended up being far more equal than it should have been…

Hanigan might have the largest variance, between his winning % and his team's winning %, in history 

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, drewski6 said:

 

2-1

You need a weighted-average adjustment.  Moon had two legit singles, the the pick-off throw quip was more like a triple.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Everyone was wrong about somebody.

I don't think so.  I have not heard anyone (recently) talking about trading Tolle for Marte, or signing Bichette, or any of that fun stuff.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, oldtimer said:

So try to trade Duran, Story and Yoshida while looking for a power bat for DH.

I'd be okay with Sato.  He addresses a few holes.  That said, if we do add him, we won't see much improvement anywhere else.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't think so.  I have not heard anyone (recently) talking about trading Tolle for Marte, or signing Bichette, or any of that fun stuff.

The "was" referred to last year and how each of us had a bad suggestion or ten.

[JoeBrady]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The "was" referred to last year and how each of us had a bad suggestion or ten.

I was being sarcastic.  

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You need a weighted-average adjustment.  Moon had two legit singles, the the pick-off throw quip was more like a triple.

I  was taking a piss in the LF scoreboard. No points for that?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd be okay with Sato.  He addresses a few holes.  That said, if we do add him, we won't see much improvement anywhere else.

I could see him as the only add, and we'd probably trade Duran to help pay for him.

Maybe we sign some cheap pitching depth deals, but just one big add to the O.

[moonslav59]

Maybe, we sign Sato and trade Duran and maybe a decent prospect for another piece.

Ideally, I'd go with sign Sato and trade Duran, some cash and Arias for DLC.

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Sato DH (3B)

3. S de la Cruz SS

4. R Contreras 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Mead 2B (DH)

7. S Rutschman C

8. R Durbin 3B (L Yoshida or Casas DH/ R Gasper DH or Romy 2B/DH)

9. R Rafaela CF

 

[Old Red]

7 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

And again, we got okay/good players.  The RS issue wasn't Contreras + Durbin.  It was Duran + Story + Narvaez.

Now, had anyone suggested that we bring in players to replace those three guys, I'd have disagreed, but still acknowledged they were right.  But even if one prefers Alonso's .884 over Contreras' .901, because Alonso's SLG was 6 points higher, there was never going be a material difference.

Ah yes the end all be all OPS, and the SLG. Where does any of those tell:you that Alonso payed 31 more games, and hit 16 more home runs that would have made a big difference in itself, so to say there was never going to be a material difference is never going to to be right, and that’s why you have to break everything down to get the best picture . Just using OPS is never going to do that.🙈

[Old Red]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

You agree on 1-2 years then claim they haven't turned out as good as expected. It's only been 2 years, so once again, circle jerk nonsense.

Not one poster projected AWESOME in 2 years. I'm not even anyone said 3-4 years. Maybe they did, but certainly not the amount of posters you imply were overestimating to AWESOME.

I agree on the 1-2 years, because I don’t expect much from suspects in the first place, but many others did including the Red Sox, so that’s why it was said they haven’t turned out as expected. It’s not that complicated. Hearing little A was a flop on two different venues pretty much tells a different story than what gets regurgitated on here. Of course if you ventured out more you would know that. No one said AnY poster on here projected AWESOME in two years, so you must be seeing things again, and if you want to claim no one on here didn’t expect big big things from little A this past season I would say that’s disingenuous at the very least, and as you say circle jerk nonsense. Have a good day.🤔👋

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

Ah yes the end all be all OPS, and the SLG. Where does any of those tell:you that Alonso payed 31 more games, and hit 16 more home runs that would have made a big difference in itself, so to say there was never going to be a material difference is never going to to be right, and that’s why you have to break everything down to get the best picture . Just using OPS is never going to do that.🙈

How big of a difference?  If the Sox signed Alonso, how much better would they be?

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Old Red said:

I agree on the 1-2 years, because I don’t expect much from suspects in the first place, but many others did including the Red Sox, so that’s why it was said they haven’t turned out as expected. It’s not that complicated. Hearing little A was a flop on two different venues pretty much tells a different story than what gets regurgitated on here. Of course if you ventured out more you would know that. No one said AnY poster on here projected AWESOME in two years, so you must be seeing things again, and if you want to claim no one on here didn’t expect big big things from little A this past season I would say that’s disingenuous at the very least, and as you say circle jerk nonsense. Have a good day.🤔👋

 

Again, I could care less what you hear on your corner and circle jerk talk shows.

You used the word AWESOME, and I responded to it.

Roman was hurt for much of this season and maybe playing hurt for part of it. Not many expected that, so when he doesn't produce like we hoped, some of your circle jerk clowns might say he's a "flop," but he's not. 

He may end up being one, but my point was, and of course you missed it and replied to a point I didn't make, is that I do not recall anyone saying Roman would be great in year one or two, and injuries prevented him from showing how good or bad he is.

I think we all agree, Roman has not shown what we hoped for, but I don't expect you to understand semantic and what words actually mean. I might not have as much of an issue if someone said, "He's been a let down, so far," or maybe even a "flop" so far, but to  say is "Is a flop" or "was a flop" had implications your feeble mind can't grasp. 

I'd still argue he has not been a flop so far, because I don't equate injuries with being a flop. Fine if you and your clowns think so, but when you say things I disagree with, I'm going to respond. He IS not a flop. He WAS not a flop. He MIGHT become a flop, and you'd be all giddy with your suspect nonsense and how you "called it," but that's just who you are.

[moonslav59]

BTV has revised some values, and Duran went from 4 to 0.9. That seems pretty close to me, as I'd expect next to nothing back in trade, but that value number does indicate he has value: it's just the $11.1M contract that brings him down to close to one.

IMO, we should move him and hand Brez an added $11-12M to this winter's spending budget- whatever that might be. I've mentioned trying to "add" $3-4M more by trading Yoshida, and if we add a SS, maybe adding $4-6M by trading Story, but as of now, our SS depth is too shallow, and the value of Arias is too speculative.

I'd feel better about our ability to add some quality players, if we could hand Brez $14-15M more. Hopefully, he's starting with a sizeable chunk of money to spend, but with JH, I'm not counting on it.

Not knowing what the spending limit or guideline is makes it difficult to be realistic in who we think we should add. Some names being floated about might be more about can Brez do it than should he do it. Shedding higher-priced players provides some flexibility, but it only goes so far and is not an easy thing to pull off- maybe even more difficult to do right before a possible lock-out.

Normally, I am voicing my opinion on adding a top quality SP'er, and I would not be against bringing Gray back (if he wants to) or adding someone like Nick Martinez or a top RP'er like Morejon, but if the funding is limited, I'm looking at my top priority being an elite bat, or two really good ones.

Maybe I have more confidence in our current core foundational everyday players than many others, so I am leaning towards one great bat vs 2 really good ones, but either idea seems more urgent than adding a top pitcher.

I'd be thrilled if we can do both, but I do not t hink that's realistic. We can argue all day about how JH can and should spend more, and I'm fully on board with that idea. Who knows? Maybe JH & Co do see this as "the time" to be bold with spending to create a 2-3 year window, whereby an major increase in our chances at winning a ring is possible with just 1-2 major moves.

IMO, we don't need to spread the money out by trying to slightly upgrade 4-5 slots on the roster, or even 3 slots. We need one or two top quality players. My viewpoint is to look at our weakest 2-3 slots and target major improvement at 1-2 of them. My priority list is below:

1. Elite bat: SS looks like our worst offensive position, but 2B (Mead to DH) LF (Anthony to DH) or DH could be the slots we choose.

2. A second good bat (or two really good ones, if our #1 add is not great.) The same positions jump out as in need of a better bat.

3. A pitcher like Sonny Gray/Nick Martinez or Morejon.

I'm willing to trade Arias and others for someone like DLC or Abrams. Maybe some other big bat is possible, and I'd listen on any chances they might provides, but I'm focused on a SS upgrade. I'm willing to sacrifice defense at SS, in part because the rest of our defense looks plus or plus-plus.

I'd prefer we keep Justin Gonzalez, but we have a window of opportunity that might mean he has to be included in a deal to get who we need. That goes for Primera, too. I'd avoid trading Arias & Godbout, but again, kif someone needs both to get us a solid and controlled SS, I'd do it. Every other prospect is open for dealing. Maybe Valera is a big enough chip that allows us to keep a higher ranked one, but we need to get creative and bold, this winter.

If we can couple a major trade like this plus a major signing like Suzuki, Sato and to a lesser extent Arozarena,  Gray/Martinez/Morejon and maybe even BLowe or Chisholm, I'd be thrilled.

Maybe this is unrealistic- maybe not.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, notin said:

How big of a difference?  If the Sox signed Alonso, how much better would they be?

He thinks Alonso still gets 113 RBIs with the Sox, so his answer will be without merit.

[moonslav59]

Here is how BTV values our best players:

(Not adjusted for salary)

193 Crochet

151 Tolle

140 Roman

136 Rafaela

120 Suarez

76 Bennett & 71 Durbin

58 Abreu & 53 Mead

35 Bello, 34 KC, 31 Rutschman & 30 Contreras

18 Chapman, 17 Sogard, 17 Slaten, 13 Miller, 12 Duran & Gasper

11 Whitlock, 11 Guerrero, 9 Houck, 7 Story, 6 Monasterio & Oviedo

4 Jones, 2 Moran, Crawford, Gamboa, Samaniego, Wong & Weissert

1 Yoshida, Siegler, Casas, Romy & Paez

_________________________

Value per Year of Control:

32 Crochet, 30 Tolle, Suarez & AR

23 Rafaela & 20 Anthony

19 Abreu, 18 Chapman, 15 Contreras

14 Durbin, 13 Bennett & Mead

12 Bello, 11 Whitlock, 9 Houck, 7 Story

6 KC, Oviedo, Slaten & Duran (but they say $11M/2yrs)

4 Miller, 3 Sogard & Guerrero

2 Gasper, Monasterio

_________________________

Prospect Values:

58 Arias

27 Gonzales

20 Primera

12 Valera & Delzine

11 Soto & 10 Godbout

7 Schaffner, Hull, Shelar, Mataczynski

5 Cespedes, 4 Gutierrez & Phillips

3 Holobetz, 2 Winnay, Romero & LaFavor

2 Mullins, Ramos, Bastrado, Wehunt & M White

 

 

[moonslav59]

One aspect of the 2027 Red Sox outlook is the injury situation does not look as badly as it did last fall/winter.

Last year, we knew Houck was out pretty much all season, and Sandoval would miss 2-4 months. We also knew Crawford would start the year on the IL. We did not know about Crochet, Anthony, Oviedo and others injuries to come.

As of now, only Gasper looks like a like IL player to start 2027, and he's not really viewed as a major player on the 40.

Anthony's injury is concerning, but it's not like a back, knee or shoulder injury.

Guerrero is probably the most questionable pitcher, but Crawford is always a guess.

Crochet, Houck, Oviedo and Crawford were apparently healthy at the end of 2026.

Mead was pretty close to being ready and should be 100% to start ST'ing.

Story is always a concern, but he was playing to end 2026.

Injuries are impossible to predict, but we look okay, as of now. We also seem to have decent depth at just about every position but Catcher and maybe the pen, but the pen could be helped by sliding Houck into it. (Crawford or Oviedo, too.)

C: Rutschman, Wong, Gasper (Jo, Garcia is Rule 5 and not on the 40, now + Nate Baez & Riley Adams/ AA GRod & RHern)

1B: Contreras, Gasper, Casas, Romy, Sogard (AA Brannon)

2B: Mead, Story, Romy, Siegler, Monasterio, Sogard (Rodgers)

3B: Durbin, Story-Mead, Sogard, Monasterio (Romero/Winnay)

SS: Story-Arias, Monasterio, Sogard

OF: Anthony-Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Yoshida, Jones, White, KC, Ward (AA Gonzales, Gutierrez & Jackson)

DH: Yoshida (Mead/Anthony) Gasper, Casas, Romy (Garcia/Brannon)

SP: Crochet, Tolle, Suarez, Bennett, Bello, Houck/Crawford/Oviedo (Paez, Wehunt, Holobetz, Ziehl)

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, (Houck?) Miller, Slaten, Guerrero, Weissert, Moran plus Oviedo-Crawford?(Bastardo, Mullins, Gamboa, Samaniego, Olds, Song, Rogers, Carlson, Halligan, Sansone, AA Futrell, Monegro & Adams)

 

[NHNative]

I like the logic behind bringing Mauricio Dubón back.

[Tedballgame]

Get ready for a long lock out. Nothing is going to happen after December 1st until the summer.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, NHNative said:

I like the logic behind bringing Mauricio Dubón back.

We have enough like him. We need elite players.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Tedballgame said:

Get ready for a long lock out. Nothing is going to happen after December 1st until the summer.

Nope.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/4/2026 at 11:08 AM, UtahSox said:

free agent production vs Abreu
 

Randy Arozarena .865 +.092

Seiya Suzuki .841 +.068

Michael Conforto* .800 +.027

Ian Happ .738 -.035

Luis Robert Jr. .716 -.057

Austin Hays .705 -.068

Trent Grisham .703 -.070

other than possibly the first on this list none move the needle for me

[Randy Red Sox]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We have enough like him. We need elite players.

exactly

[Randy Red Sox]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nope.

almost certain there will be a Dec 1 lockout and almost certain Sox will not have a major signing before then and expect to see JH side with the low market owners during the dispute.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

almost certain there will be a Dec 1 lockout and almost certain Sox will not have a major signing before then and expect to see JH side with the low market owners during the dispute.

Nope to out till summer.

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

other than possibly the first on this list none move the needle for me

Suzuki> Arozarena but much more costly, too.

[southpaw777]

On 11/5/2026 at 5:37 PM, JoeBrady said:

I loved Iggy and still do.  

Turned into a solid MLb ballplayer and a good career