A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[JoeBrady]

9 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

But be honest did runs 3-10 even matter? Once down 2 runs I knew it was over.

Offense and pitching matter about the same.  We didn't get good pitching.  We also didn't get any hitting, but we could've had Yordie and it wouldn't have made any difference.

[Old Red]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

True nuff.

You know, Mayer may still prove to be a good player.

 

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I was gonna write a long post on "hype" and why it seems to get under so many people's skin.

What is expected when a team has top prospects? Keep quiet? Downplay them?

Do any team not "hype" a nationally high ranking prospect?

Don't many fans get high hopes over them, often unreasonably high, but often enough fully realized or at least in large part? What is inherently wrong with getting some optimism, even if on the overly side?

Nobody said a peep about getting "hyped" over Betts. That was fine.

I'm pretty sure most posters here know nothing in baseball is for sure. We all knew a bust or two was possible, but we had some many, all at once, that it was pretty hard to think none would do well. 

BTW, it's not a sure bet all will fail, despite Mayer and KC not looking likely to do well. 

And one more thing: wasn't Tolle a highly ranked prospect, too? It's not like we are oh for 3. At worst, maybe 1 for 4 or 1.5 for 4, if you count Roman as a half, and that's still just "so far."

Players get hyped, because of their rankings do they not? Mayer was predicted to be the first pick by some, but three teams passed on him, and the Red Sox thought they had a real steal getting him fourth. He certainly hasn’t turned out as good as expected. What about the three players that were  drafted ahead of him. As any of them turned out as expected? Rankings turn into hype, but neither always turn out as expected.

[Hugh2]

23 minutes ago, Old Red said:

 

Players get hyped, because of their rankings do they not? Mayer was predicted to be the first pick by some, but three teams passed on him, and the Red Sox thought they had a real steal getting him fourth. He certainly hasn’t turned out as good as expected. What about the three players that were  drafted ahead of him. As any of them turned out as expected? Rankings turn into hype, but neither always turn out as expected.

It's actually fairly common for a guy who is regarded as the #1 talent in a draft to be skipped #1 for financial reasons and happens much more often when that guy is a High Schooler.  But yeah, people look at rankings and get expectations and hype guys up. 

[Hugh2]

27 minutes ago, Old Red said:

 

Players get hyped, because of their rankings do they not? Mayer was predicted to be the first pick by some, but three teams passed on him, and the Red Sox thought they had a real steal getting him fourth. He certainly hasn’t turned out as good as expected. What about the three players that were  drafted ahead of him. As any of them turned out as expected? Rankings turn into hype, but neither always turn out as expected.

I forgot to address the first three picks in the 2021 draft. 

# Henry Davis - college draftee, 27, been in the league for 4 years with a -1.1 Fwar .565 career ops.  He's effectively a defense first back up catcher now. 

#2 Jack Leiter - college pitcher with a 2.5 FWar across 3 seasons now, career 4.95 era, has spent lots of the time on the dl. 

#3 Jackson Jobe - high school pitcher (and we know how much we love it when the Sox take the top ranked college pitchers.  Very young, just 23 and has been bouncing up and down the last few years.  Career 3.91 era in 99 career innings.  Shows some promise, hasn't really put it all together yet but he's entering 2027 fully recovered from TJ surgery and has good stuff. 

 

All those guys are either failures, or it's still too early lets' wait and see. 

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I forgot to address the first three picks in the 2021 draft. 

# Henry Davis - college draftee, 27, been in the league for 4 years with a -1.1 Fwar .565 career ops.  He's effectively a defense first back up catcher now. 

#2 Jack Leiter - college pitcher with a 2.5 FWar across 3 seasons now, career 4.95 era, has spent lots of the time on the dl. 

#3 Jackson Jobe - high school pitcher (and we know how much we love it when the Sox take the top ranked college pitchers.  Very young, just 23 and has been bouncing up and down the last few years.  Career 3.91 era in 99 career innings.  Shows some promise, hasn't really put it all together yet but he's entering 2027 fully recovered from TJ surgery and has good stuff. 

 

All those guys are either failures, or it's still too early lets' wait and see. 

Good info.👍

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

He was exactly what his numbers suggested, but only for the folks that believe in numbers.  He had some power, but a 48/12 K/W.  That usually worsens since pro pitchers are stingier with walks. 

He showed off more power in MiLB. Hasn't had 20 HR seasons since reaching MLB. Maybe he'll get back there? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

 

Players get hyped, because of their rankings do they not? Mayer was predicted to be the first pick by some, but three teams passed on him, and the Red Sox thought they had a real steal getting him fourth. He certainly hasn’t turned out as good as expected. What about the three players that were  drafted ahead of him. As any of them turned out as expected? Rankings turn into hype, but neither always turn out as expected.

Of course many top picks get hyped and don't do well. I'm just not understanding why "hype" bothers you and others.

Fans understand hype is not a guarantee, at least most do.

So what's the real problem?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

It's actually fairly common for a guy who is regarded as the #1 talent in a draft to be skipped #1 for financial reasons and happens much more often when that guy is a High Schooler.  But yeah, people look at rankings and get expectations and hype guys up. 

The Sox were famous for drafting players late in rounds due to "signability" issues.

Maybe some GM actually did like others more than Mayer, but I'm not sure a single scout or GM had a bad outlook on Mayer.

I will admit, I'm a bit surprised how poorly the big 3 have started their careers, but it is still early.

Was it wrong to not hype Tolle as much?

Should we not hype any player, or just always be right on the ones we do hype or face the wrath for mishyping someone.?

 

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course many top picks get hyped and don't do well. I'm just not understanding why "hype" bothers you and others.

Fans understand hype is not a guarantee, at least most do.

So what's the real problem?

Is it hype bothering me, or is it not living up to the hype bothering you? I don’t get into farm rankings for teams, or players, and because I don’t I don’t hype anyone, but others do, and because of that I heard all this little A talk about being a possible MVP candidate especially after his WBC appearance, so when he didn’t come close to play many games let alone anything close to MVP stats there is going to be pushback, which there was plenty of outside of here. So what’s the real problem?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I forgot to address the first three picks in the 2021 draft. 

# Henry Davis - college draftee, 27, been in the league for 4 years with a -1.1 Fwar .565 career ops.  He's effectively a defense first back up catcher now. 

#2 Jack Leiter - college pitcher with a 2.5 FWar across 3 seasons now, career 4.95 era, has spent lots of the time on the dl. 

#3 Jackson Jobe - high school pitcher (and we know how much we love it when the Sox take the top ranked college pitchers.  Very young, just 23 and has been bouncing up and down the last few years.  Career 3.91 era in 99 career innings.  Shows some promise, hasn't really put it all together yet but he's entering 2027 fully recovered from TJ surgery and has good stuff. 

 

All those guys are either failures, or it's still too early lets' wait and see. 

Early on there was talk on why we didn't take Lawlar. He's at .646.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox were famous for drafting players late in rounds due to "signability" issues.

Maybe some GM actually did like others more than Mayer, but I'm not sure a single scout or GM had a bad outlook on Mayer.

I will admit, I'm a bit surprised how poorly the big 3 have started their careers, but it is still early.

Was it wrong to not hype Tolle as much?

Should we not hype any player, or just always be right on the ones we do hype or face the wrath for mishyping someone.?

 

The so called original big 3 have been more like the soft 3 as all have had injury problems.

[Nick]

Little voices always tell me to trade young players (pre-arbitration) at the height of their hype/value.

Two years ago at the time of the All Star break, the Sox management would have been crucified had they traded Duran. Now look at his trade value.

My instincts tell me without any data, more often than not a projected high level player will fail.

So why not trade say Tolle and Arias for 3 years of De La Cruz who has a proven track record after three years in the majors? His high end arbitration 1 number is projected to be at $8.51M. 

Pick up another FA bat, Randy Arozarena? Trade away Duran. Remember $41M frees up in 2028.

What young player have we traded turned out to be an absolute stud?

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Is it hype bothering me, or is it not living up to the hype bothering you? I don’t get into farm rankings for teams, or players, and because I don’t I don’t hype anyone, but others do, and because of that I heard all this little A talk about being a possible MVP candidate especially after his WBC appearance, so when he didn’t come close to play many games let alone anything close to MVP stats there is going to be pushback, which there was plenty of outside of here. So what’s the real problem?

Of course I wish our prospects lived up to the hype, but I would say it was the "hype" that bothers me. Them sucking did.

I never heard anyone say they expected Roman to be MVP in year one or two. Some might have said he will be a top MVP candidate someday, but I think you overstate how sure posters were on the success of the big 3 or 4, if you include Tolle.

Once again, you turn my question into a question to me. I answered it, anyway. Why not actually answer why the "hype" bothers you, because it clearly does.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The so called original big 3 have been more like the soft 3 as all have had injury problems.

Did the less hype for Tolle bother you?

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course I wish our prospects lived up to the hype, but I would say it was the "hype" that bothers me. Them sucking did.

I never heard anyone say they expected Roman to be MVP in year one or two. Some might have said he will be a top MVP candidate someday, but I think you overstate how sure posters were on the success of the big 3 or 4, if you include Tolle.

Once again, you turn my question into a question to me. I answered it, anyway. Why not actually answer why the "hype" bothers you, because it clearly does.

little A went from the so called rise of the Roman Empire. To the WBC, and then the MVP talk picked up to a two month stay in Florida for wink, wink he would have less distractions. That’s quite a fall in a few months time. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

little A went from the so called rise of the Roman Empire. To the WBC, and then the MVP talk picked up to a two month stay in Florida for wink, wink he would have less distractions. That’s quite a fall in a few months time. 

Apparently, all in your mind.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

# Henry Davis - college draftee, 27, been in the league for 4 years with a -1.1 Fwar .565 career ops.  He's effectively a defense first back up catcher now. 

He was also over-drafted because the Pirates wanted to draft/sign Chandler.

[JoeBrady]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Did the less hype for Tolle bother you?

Another pet peeve of mine.  Some posters conveniently forget the guys that have worked out quite well.

[JoeBrady]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Apparently, all in your mind.

I think Red is intrigued by his name more than anything else.

[notin]

12 hours ago, Old Red said:

Bad pitching, or the Bad decisions with the pitching?🤔

Both…

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Another pet peeve of mine.  Some posters conveniently forget the guys that have worked out quite well.

Tolle  was our #1 for a short while but top 3 for longer. Early was also top 3, but not top 15 nationally.

We really haven't had many top 5-15 nationally ranked prospects, and then we get so many all at once. I'm not sure why fans getting excited about that is such a big thing.

Plus, I think people are overstating the idea that there was this great number of posters having great certainty about the instant success of all 3.

For the guy who loves inventing or repeating silly and ill-fitting nicknames for players, I find the big issue with the "Roman Empire" term seems contradictory.

Which nickname was more ill-fitting? "Roman Empire" or "Con Man?"

[drewski6]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Ginger- family beagle as a child

Jed- my first solo dog (mix)

Sierra- Shepherd & "wolf" mix was told

Kaleb- Yellow Lab/Shep mix lived to be 19.5

Daisy (Blue Lacy) and Kiza (Greyhound/Dalmation) are my two current dogs (7 and 6 y/o)

Had many cats- one that lived 21 years.

Ive had 3 basset hounds : George, Brandeis-Gladys Marie, and Sophie.....The only one I named was Brandeis Gladys Marie, who came as Brandy when I rescued her but I had already knew too many female dogs named Brandy.

My cat, kitty, I didnt name.  I ordered a pizza and she came in when I opened my door to get it and she chose to never leave. That was 12 years ago. Im not sure how old she is but she wasnt a kitten, so Im guessing 15/16 my old gal.  I knocked on doors after like 2 days of her not leaving and found her prev home but the owners kept her outdoor only, werent cat people, and encouraged me to adopt her.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

Little voices always tell me to trade young players (pre-arbitration) at the height of their hype/value.

Two years ago at the time of the All Star break, the Sox management would have been crucified had they traded Duran. Now look at his trade value.

My instincts tell me without any data, more often than not a projected high level player will fail.

So why not trade say Tolle and Arias for 3 years of De La Cruz who has a proven track record after three years in the majors? His high end arbitration 1 number is projected to be at $8.51M. 

Pick up another FA bat, Randy Arozarena? Trade away Duran. Remember $41M frees up in 2028.

What young player have we traded turned out to be an absolute stud?

If you ran the Reds, would you make that trade?  Bear in mind the Reds are fairly loaded with young, cheap controlled SP and cannot find good outfielders and offensive talent.  
 

Other than just seeing what they could get, not sure why Cincy would be eager to explore moving De La Cruz…

[drewski6]

16 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Lugo was one of the few players I thought Theo had kind of an obsession with.  AGon was a great fit.

They should never have gotten AGON in the first place. They let a better player go to make room for AGON.

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, notin said:

Ceddanne came up like a useful version of Will Middlebrooks….

Will Middlebrooks ame up like a useful version of Will Middlebrooks.  Then 2-3 years in , he forgot how to make contact.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

They should never have gotten AGON in the first place. They let a better player go to make room for AGON.

Edgar Renteria? 

[drewski6]

11 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Anthony gets his name in the paper because he was the best prospect in baseball.  It's not even 'hype'; it's 'news'.  When the #1 draft pick in the NFL gets picked #1, is it hype of is it just simply news.

The news of him going 1 overall is news.  The fans buying jerseys , and singing songs about how good he will be in 3 years is hype.  #1 picks usually have both.  Neither are bad. Hype is good.  

But the problem is that when they let a bunch of sluggers and tell us it will be okay because of the new hype guy.  Even thats not a problem unless they are wrong.  

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Edgar Renteria? 

Adrian Beltre.

[drewski6]

11 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Offense and pitching matter about the same.  We didn't get good pitching.  We also didn't get any hitting, but we could've had Yordie and it wouldn't have made any difference.

Offense (50%) equals pitching + Defense (which combine for 50%, but Ill let you decide which is higher weighted or if they are both 25%). 

[drewski6]

Let me settle the hype argument.   The way Moon and Joe Brady are defining the term hype is different than how Old Red is defining it, and you are both right.

Moon and Joe Brady are more so defining it as marketing, and buzz generation which is inherently a good thing.  You want to build your brand and your stars and your pipeline.  A team wants buzz.  Good for mission-critical things like TV deals and ticket sales.

Old Red means irrational projections, and putting too many eggs in an unproven basket.  Which is inherently bad for the health of a ballclub.  Also, I say "ballclub" now