A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

.850 is better than .775 and deserves more money, but the comp value is idential:

850>.775 is equal to .775>.700.

The same value is added to the team, if all other factors are the same.

.700 to .775 is actually a great percentage gain. (+10.7% gain)

.775 to .850 is a 9.7% improvement.

ANd you miss the point.  You cannot go get more elite hitters.  And you cannot get 2 good hitters to equal one elite one.  Elite players tend to stack championships.  You give up solid players for elite ones and backfill ur solid ones is usually good business, but everything is case by case.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

who was playing short stop when we were winning all those games?

I don't want Monasterio even on the MLB roster TBH. They got lucky that his offense was on fire for a brief moment in time. His defense was not good. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The D guy- Cheng

He only played 14 G though. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The difference between those 2 things is incredibly overrated.

At SS? Disagree. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The only misses are the swings you dont take.  Get that bat off ur shoulders!

Yeah, getting on base is just terrible. 

MIL #1 BB rate 2026

[UtahSox]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Abreu had a .773 and Grisham had a .703.  In order to improve elsewhere, you'd need to improve that position by 70 points.  You'd have to be targeting someone like Yordie to get that type of upgrade.

What if Abreu is key piece to land you CJ Abrams/EDLC?

what if it allows us to trade for Paredes+ get off a large chunk of Yoshida?

Abrams OPS 834 

EDLC OPS 880

Paredes OPS 807

Story OPS 622

Durbin OPS 710

 

[UtahSox]

3 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

What if Abreu is key piece to land you CJ Abrams/EDLC?

what if it allows us to trade for Paredes+ get off a large chunk of Yoshida?

Abrams OPS 834 

EDLC OPS 880

Paredes OPS 807

Story OPS 622

Durbin OPS 710

 

free agent production vs Abreu
 

Randy Arozarena .865 +.092

Seiya Suzuki .841 +.068

Michael Conforto* .800 +.027

Ian Happ .738 -.035

Luis Robert Jr. .716 -.057

Austin Hays .705 -.068

Trent Grisham .703 -.070

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

At SS? Disagree. 

What is the OAA variance between an elite SS and an average one?

What is OAA variance between an elite 2b and an average one?  3b?

I think its less about where each player plays on the diamond these days then its historically been, but maybe thats a mistake.  Just because its a trend doesnt mean its a good trend.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

What if Abreu is key piece to land you CJ Abrams/EDLC?

what if it allows us to trade for Paredes+ get off a large chunk of Yoshida?

Abrams OPS 834 

EDLC OPS 880

Paredes OPS 807

Story OPS 622

Durbin OPS 710

 

Abrams has had one good season so far, is a terrible SS and wouldn't be a good fit at Fenway.

As part of a deal for Elly? Sure! 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

free agent production vs Abreu
 

Randy Arozarena .865 +.092

Seiya Suzuki .841 +.068

Michael Conforto* .800 +.027

Ian Happ .738 -.035

Luis Robert Jr. .716 -.057

Austin Hays .705 -.068

Trent Grisham .703 -.070

Aro's career numbers prior to '26 are closer to Wilyer's than you'd expect and his glove is horrible. 

Seiya would be an upgrade in the short term, but will cost a lot more. 

[drewski6]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't want Monasterio even on the MLB roster TBH. They got lucky that his offense was on fire for a brief moment in time. His defense was not good. 

Almost like even at ss an on fire bat more than compensates for a bad defensive player?

[UtahSox]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Abrams has had one good season so far, is a terrible SS and wouldn't be a good fit at Fenway.

As part of a deal for Elly? Sure! 

Metric	2022 (Rookie)	2023	2024	2025	2026 (Breakout)
OPS	.604	.712	.747	.748	.834
OPS+	75	96	109	107	127
wRC+	76	94	106	104	124
WAR	0.1	3.5	3.3	3.5	3.7

IDK seems like a guy getting better every year. Agree he plays in a better park for lefties and is only 26. There is exactly 2 free agents with his level of OPS and both are 6 years older and RHB’s and are gonna get over 100m 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Almost like even at ss an on fire bat more than compensates for a bad defensive player?

He had a 1055 OPS in 24 G from 7/11 - 8/12. If you can have an OPS over 1000, you can be a bad defender like Mona. 

Corey Seager in '23 was the last SS to hit over 1000 OPS. 

Guys who have hit over 1000 in a year in the last 5 seasons:

Judge

Ohtani

Yordan

Seager

Acuna

Hit like one of those guys and you can field like Mona. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Story was the guy who wasn't at SS when the Sox were winning all those games.

I know, Pratt's bat hit the sweet spot the whole postseason and was shaky on D, and Milwaukee won. 

And the Brewers also led MLB in batting average -- and on base -- and had an above-average slugging. So obviously their balanced batting order overcame their Defensive Efficiency, which was 6th in the majors.

But even though the Red Sox had three Gold Glovers, their team Defensive Efficiency was 20th. They need improvement everywhere.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Metric	2022 (Rookie)	2023	2024	2025	2026 (Breakout)
OPS	.604	.712	.747	.748	.834
OPS+	75	96	109	107	127
wRC+	76	94	106	104	124
WAR	0.1	3.5	3.3	3.5	3.7

IDK seems like a guy getting better every year. Agree he plays in a better park for lefties and is only 26. There is exactly 2 free agents with his level of OPS and both are 6 years older and RHB’s and are gonna get over 100m 

His '24 and '25 seasons were very similar IMO. He popped in '26. Maybe he'll continue on like '26? I think it'll be hard for him to succeed in Fenway as a LHB pull hitter with low exit velo. He chases and whiffs a lot. If he was a RHB, it would look better at Fenway because he could pepper it off the Monster. I think he'd just lost a lot of balls to the vast RF if traded to BOS. Only 22 of his 33 HR's last season would have been out at Fenway. 

Just not a CJ guy. Get me Elly. 

[notin]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The D guy- Cheng

So true.

 

He will be missed.  Probably just by me, but still…

[notin]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Story was the guy who wasn't at SS when the Sox were winning all those games.

I know, Pratt's bat hit the sweet spot the whole postseason and was shaky on D, and Milwaukee won. 

And the Brewers also led MLB in batting average -- and on base -- and had an above-average slugging. So obviously their balanced batting order overcame their Defensive Efficiency, which was 6th in the majors.

But even though the Red Sox had three Gold Glovers, their team Defensive Efficiency was 20th. They need improvement everywhere.

Defensive Efficiency is a flawed metric, especially for the Sox.

It measures (outs recorded) / (batted balls in play).   In Fenway Park, a ball striking the monster 30 feet up is considered “in play with no out recorded” and makes the team look less efficient when there was no chance at making that play that doesn’t involve a 22 foot vertical leap.

I can’t trust that metric if teams get penalized for unplayable balls like that…

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

So true.

 

He will be missed.  Probably just by me, but still…

moon loved him when he hit for the cycle in WOO! 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

moon loved him when he hit for the cycle in WOO! 

Who hit for the cycle?

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Tedballgame said:

All this talk about 2027 is pure fantasy because there will not be baseball in 2027. The lockout will last a long time until the players agree to some sort of salary cap. Book it, Dano!

IMHO, they intentionally miss 8 games and then go to a permanent 154-game schedule, with expanded playoffs.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He had a 1055 OPS in 24 G from 7/11 - 8/12. If you can have an OPS over 1000, you can be a bad defender like Mona. 

Corey Seager in '23 was the last SS to hit over 1000 OPS. 

Guys who have hit over 1000 in a year in the last 5 seasons:

Judge

Ohtani

Yordan

Seager

Acuna

Hit like one of those guys and you can field like Mona. 

If a 1055 OPS gives you a guy who you must play at SS despite the fact that he is bad at SS due to the awesome OPS

What does that number adjust to if the player is average at SS but not bad?

What about if we move him to 3b or 2b?

If a 1.055 OPS gets you in at SS despite being an awful defender, then I would assume that .900 gets you in there at SS if you are just an avg defender (vs bad) and then .800 if you are 2b/3b.

My point is that there is a point where your bat plays.  What point that is depends on how good the bat is, the defense, the positional importance.

And I believe that most defense first players are placeholders.

[moonslav59]

Zach Kelly was DFA'd, as we may be about to trade him like we did with Rivera.

Looking at the 40 man roster, it seems like we have a few players that could be DFA'd or traded without missing a beat. Here is how I rank the most likely to be DFA'd or traded. (I'm not counting underwater players like Yoshida & Story. Some might add Duran, who is arb eligible.)

1. Burgos

2. Olds

3. White or Jones (both have no options) - likely tradable.

4. Moran (out of options)

5. Duran (Trade)

Maybe trade Casas, but I think we have room to protect 2 Rule 5 guys and add 3 FAs or trade adds and be at 40.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IMHO, they intentionally miss 8 games and then go to a permanent 154-game schedule, with expanded playoffs.

I agree no or not much time will be missed.

Maybe not even 8 games.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

One day you will realize that a .850 is more valuable to a .775 guy than a .775 guy is to a .700 guy.  I mean manybe not becaus your 80+, but you should realize that elite production warrants and is worth a premium due to replicability and rareness.  

That's a fair statement.  There is kind of a pyramid affect here.  But it still needs to be explained how we are going from .775 to .700, and improving our offense.  Not to mention how we cover the defensive hit.

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's a fair statement.  There is kind of a pyramid affect here.  But it still needs to be explained how we are going from .775 to .700, and improving our offense.  Not to mention how we cover the defensive hit.

I will accept your context.

[drewski6]

The hardest team to jump is the second best team, ya know?

Its easy to go from 30th to 25th, its absurdly difficult to go from 6th to 1st.  Even though in both cases you are jumping 5 teams.

Similarly, it is harder to go from average to good on offense than it is to go from bad to average.  But going from good to great, thats very very hard and requires to you potenitally trade up some .750 bats to .850 bats.

[drewski6]

Complacency can be a trap.

[drewski6]

But fans that get mad when we win 2 championships in a row and then dont sign the most expensive FA are annoying too.

[drewski6]

But right now, its not particularly fair to go on ur RS fans are impossible to please shtick.  Because we havent won a playoff series in 6 years or finished higher than 3rd in teh division.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, UtahSox said:

What if Abreu is key piece to land you CJ Abrams/EDLC?

what if it allows us to trade for Paredes+ get off a large chunk of Yoshida?

Abrams OPS 834 

EDLC OPS 880

Paredes OPS 807

Story OPS 622

Durbin OPS 710

 

I'd have to see the trades.  I'm not a fan of CJ since he can't play SS.  But I'm a huge fan of DLC, and SS is likely our biggest upgrade possible.  Let's say we trade Arias + Abreu for DLC.  We've added 6 HRs, and lost 6 years of Arias in return.  And then we have to add a RF.  I'm having a hard time seeing the improvement.

Basically, Arias has to go if we acquire DLC.  If we acquire DLC, I need to see a substantial improvement over his three years of control.  DLC is better than Abreu, but I don't consider it substantial