A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

First you give me a 4 WAR outfielder…

Give a boost to Abreu and we'd have two.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Anybody wildly disagree on some of these?

Looking from a slightly different perspective, all our starters project to > 100 OPS+, except SS.  And it is still possible for Arias to have a .719+.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Looking from a slightly different perspective, all our starters project to > 100 OPS+, except SS.  And it is still possible for Arias to have a .719+.

Possible for Story, too.

Also, 2-3 subs could be 100 (Gasper, Yoshida, Romy and dare I say Casas.)

The issue is we may only have one batter over .775. Can a team win with 8 guys between .720 and ,770?

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Looking from a slightly different perspective, all our starters project to > 100 OPS+, except SS.  And it is still possible for Arias to have a .719+.

Xander 136 wRC+ AAA

Arias 131 wRC+ AAA

Xander massively struggled his first full season (659 OPS, 81 wRC+). I think Arias would be closer to that than 720 OPS.  

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Xander 136 wRC+ AAA

Arias 131 wRC+ AAA

Xander massively struggled his first full season (659 OPS, 81 wRC+). I think Arias would be closer to that than 720 OPS.  

When/if  Arias gets called up, he likely bats ninth…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

When/if  Arias gets called up, he likely bats ninth…

Ok with me! I'm not saying he shouldn't be the starting SS. I'm just saying that people should temper their expectations for his offensive output. 

[drewski6]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ok with me! I'm not saying he shouldn't be the starting SS. I'm just saying that people should temper their expectations for his offensive output. 

Exactly.

[drewski6]

And people should temper their expectations for 2027 Roman, and 2027 Mead, and 2027 Adley.

Abreu and Cedanne, I think we know what we can expect.  Streaky hitting that averages out to good, good D.

I dont hate Contreras, but if his .900+ OPS turns into .800ish, its very possible we go backwards in offense.  Starting from 25th out of 30, thats hard to do.

[mvp 78]

I'll be happy if Roman plays 140 G next year. 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Ok with me! I'm not saying he shouldn't be the starting SS. I'm just saying that people should temper their expectations for his offensive output. 

I don't think an OPS of .720 is some type of wild-eyed expectation for the #2 prospect in baseball.  But I only said it was possible, not a sure thing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'll be happy if Roman plays 140 G next year. 

I'd be happy if he doesn't bat leadoff, for several reasons (mainly because it would mean the Sox added new talent at least at the top of the order).

BB-Ref's 162-game averages for Anthony, based on the small sample of his young life:

17 HRs, 60 RBI, .271 BA, .371 OBP, .803 OPS and 5.9 WAR (seems high, unless he's a Gold Glover like Rafaela, whose offensive stats were similar in his 5.7 WAR year).

Maybe it's the On Base Percentage -- a polarizing stat on talksox these days...

But let's just say Roman is fully healed and plays a full season with those numbers: will that be enough production from the Face of the Franchise to boost Boston INTO October 2027? 

Or does Breslow need to add some serious bats around him?

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't think an OPS of .720 is some type of wild-eyed expectation for the #2 prospect in baseball.  But I only said it was possible, not a sure thing.

You were projecting every Sox starter to hit over 720 when the only projected starters to do that in '26 were Roman, Rafaela, Abreu and Contreras. Just ticking the box on the other 5 guys seems fairly presumptuous. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'd be happy if he doesn't bat leadoff, for several reasons (mainly because it would mean the Sox added new talent at least at the top of the order).

BB-Ref's 162-game averages for Anthony, based on the small sample of his young life:

17 HRs, 60 RBI, .271 BA, .371 OBP, .803 OPS and 5.9 WAR (seems high, unless he's a Gold Glover like Rafaela, whose offensive stats were similar in his 5.7 WAR year).

Maybe it's the On Base Percentage -- a polarizing stat on talksox these days...

But let's just say Roman is fully healed and plays a full season with those numbers: will that be enough production from the Face of the Franchise to boost Boston INTO October 2027? 

Or does Breslow need to add some serious bats around him?

 

Roman's defensive metrics are much better than we give him credit for. He was third in ROY voting for a reason. It's just been a long time since we've seen the very good version of Roman. 

[JoeBrady]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You were projecting every Sox starter to hit over 720 when the only projected starters to do that in '26 were Roman, Rafaela, Abreu and Contreras. Just ticking the box on the other 5 guys seems fairly presumptuous. 

It's somewhat of a guessing game, and by suggesting that 8 batters should be > 100 OPS+, it doesn't mean they will.  But here's my reasoning (with all due respect to homerism):

• Rutschman Career 114 & 2026 109
• Contreras 122/153
• Mead  97/132
• SS
• Durbin  101/101
• Anthony 126/108
• Ceddanne 97/113
• Abreu  118/117
• Yoshida  109/111

Mead & Raffy are the only guys that have a career OPS< 100, but they both had very good years in 2026.  When FG updates its DB for 2027, I'd be surprised if any of the 8 project to under 100.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

It's somewhat of a guessing game, and by suggesting that 8 batters should be > 100 OPS+, it doesn't mean they will.  But here's my reasoning (with all due respect to homerism):

• Rutschman Career 114 & 2026 109
• Contreras 122/153
• Mead  97/132
• SS
• Durbin  101/101
• Anthony 126/108
• Ceddanne 97/113
• Abreu  118/117
• Yoshida  109/111

Mead & Raffy are the only guys that have a career OPS< 100, but they both had very good years in 2026.  When FG updates its DB for 2027, I'd be surprised if any of the 8 project to under 100.

I think we could very well have 8 guys projected at 100+ in OPS+, not counting Gasper, Jones and some other subs.

Contreras may decline, but expecting over 100 is what everyone will do.

Abreu has never been under 116.

AR was at 107 in 2026 and under 105 only once in his 5 year career. Sure he could go under, but there is no reason to expect or project that.

Anthony has 545 career PAs, so he's largely an unknown. A career 128 OPS+ suggests he will pass the 100 mark in 2027.

Durbin turns 27 and has two full seasons under his belt. He's been so close to 100 (101 both years) that going under is possible, but at 27 most players improve.

Rafaela his improved every season, but he was under 100 his first 4 seasons. (78>85>95>115.) Certainly he could break the upward trend, and he is "streaky." I think expecting 100+ is very reasonable, though.

I've probably been higher on Mead than anyone else, here, and he never got over a 90 before 2026's 135. I'm actually not okay with anyone projecting under 100. It seems like defeatist thinking, to me.

Yoshida was only under 100 in one season- his shortest one (2025.) He's a career 109 batter, but he's now 33. Maybe close, but I'll project the over.

That's 8, and I haven't brought up Romy, who was 6th in team PAs in 2025. He had an amazing 128 OPS+ and actually had more PAs vs R than L. He was at 102 in 2024. (112 career w BOS.) Okay, neither he nor Mead can play SS, so we can't say we have a line-up full or 9 projected 100+ guys, but Romy offers nice depth.

Story's main issue has been injury, and while many of the season sample sizes are small, I was rather surprised to see he finished over a 100 OPS+ in 3 of his 5 seasons with BOS. Both of his highest laying time seasons were over 100 (102 in '22 and 104 in '25.) It's been 97 from 2024-2026. I'm fine with projecting he and Arias under 100 and maybe even under a 90. I would not project Arias over 100, but it wouldn't shock me.

We can't count subs as 100+ guys in our line-up everyday, but we do have some promise with a few of them:

Gasper had a shockingly bust out 135 OPS+ in 225 PAs. That could be an outlier, but maybe not.

Seigler was at 105 in 175 PAs in 2026.

Jones has a career 98 OPS+ and went insane in 2026 with BOS at 178. If he's used exclusively vs LHP, he should be over 100.

Casas has a career 118 OPS+, just sayin'.

Nobody should project Wong to be over 100 and maybe even over 85 or 90. He did go 113 in 2024, in his largest sample size season of his career (487 PAs)

We may only have 2 of 13 roster slots projected at under 100: Story/Arias and Wong- the back-up catcher.

I'm with Drewski on the position that we need top quality, and not all but one one batter between 100 and 110. It's nice having balance, and we have some hopes that someone(s) can join Contreras as elite batters (Mead, Anthony, Abreu and even AR, but we could really use a more proven big bat.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Ok with me! I'm not saying he shouldn't be the starting SS. I'm just saying that people should temper their expectations for his offensive output. 

I'd probably project an 85-90 OPS+ from a SS combo of Arias and Story for 2027.

Everyone else should be over 100, except Wong.

Of course, someone will disappoint and end up under, maybe even two or three guys. That plus a drop fro Contreras needs us to rely on rebounds and improvements.

Let's just get us a big bat SS and change the whole dynamic!

[NHNative]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd probably project an 85-90 OPS+ from a SS combo of Arias and Story for 2027.

Everyone else should be over 100, except Wong.

Of course, someone will disappoint and end up under, maybe even two or three guys. That plus a drop fro Contreras needs us to rely on rebounds and improvements.

Let's just get us a big bat SS and change the whole dynamic!

Will we arrive at a majority consensus this winter on what we need to get to the WS? At talksox.

Perhaps a voting poll on acquisitions and dump/trades.

KISS

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, NHNative said:

Will we arrive at a majority consensus this winter on what we need to get to the WS? At talksox.

Perhaps a voting poll on acquisitions and dump/trades.

KISS

There will never be consensus on what specific needs should be addressed, and then on who that addition should be.

It does seem like most think we need something major, although that might be just bringing Gray back and adding a decent bat for some.

[moonslav59]

I know I've been talking up Mead, and I do realize his value is not yet known and is still speculative, but if we traded for him this winter, I'd probably view it like I did the Contreras trade, last winter.

I was higher than I should have been on Narvaez, despite some posters trying to talk me down, but as questionable as Rutschman is, he is a much better bet than Narvaez was. One could view him as a winter add, too.

IMO, those two are not enough. We likely eliminated two black holes and replaced them with above average players, especially on offense.

We rate to have one slot projected under a 100 OPS+, and that is SS. I really like Arias, but our window is here and now, and I don't want to cut anyone some slack as they work to develop into something great (if at all.) I'm big on SS defense, and Arias should be fine at that, but Story is not. I don't want to hand him the FT jon, either.

Trade for a SS, and make it a real good one.

If that's all we do, it might be enough.

[oldtimer]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd probably project an 85-90 OPS+ from a SS combo of Arias and Story for 2027.

Everyone else should be over 100, except Wong.

Of course, someone will disappoint and end up under, maybe even two or three guys. That plus a drop fro Contreras needs us to rely on rebounds and improvements.

Let's just get us a big bat SS and change the whole dynamic!

Arias wsould likely give us a boost in defense at SS, something both WS teams feature. Don't overlook  the holistic benefit of a player at that position. Story is aging and is no longer a top defender. Giving up Arias to get a big bat would be an approach I would not favor.

[Old Red]

33 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Arias wsould likely give us a boost in defense at SS, something both WS teams feature. Don't overlook  the holistic benefit of a player at that position. Story is aging and is no longer a top defender. Giving up Arias to get a big bat would be an approach I would not favor.

It would take a lot more than a suspect like Arias to get a big bat. Of course the reason the Red Sox need a big bat, or two is, because bresLOW didn’t get one last year when some were available. Some on here keep touting bresLOW for all the good things he did like that is the top story, but to me not getting that Big bat for the middle of the order is the top story.🤫

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

27 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It would take a lot more than a suspect like Arias to get a big bat. Of course the reason the Red Sox need a big bat, or two is, because bresLOW didn’t get one last year when some were available. Some on here keep touting bresLOW for all the good things he did like that is the top story, but to me not getting that Big bat for the middle of the order is the top story.🤫

Breslow's words in the final press conference indicate the strategy for adding power to the offense won't come from offseason acquisitions. Instead, the Red Sox will count on strength and conditioning programs and longball coaching.

Brez gave up a lot this summer for Rutschman and Mead, and there's not a lot left to deal for legit MLB bats. It's understandable if the Sox wait to see how/if both will hit when fully healed.

All we can do is hope for the best. And also be honest and admit no one has any idea how/if Roman Anthony will ever again be as good as new.

 

 

 

 

[NHNative]

33 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Breslow's words in the final press conference indicate the strategy for adding power to the offense won't come from offseason acquisitions. Instead, the Red Sox will count on strength and conditioning programs and longball coaching.

Brez gave up a lot this summer for Rutschman and Mead, and there's not a lot left to deal for legit MLB bats. It's understandable if the Sox wait to see how/if both will hit when fully healed.

All we can do is hope for the best. And also be honest and admit no one has any idea how/if Roman Anthony will ever again be as good as new.

 

 

 

 

Its a tough situation not knowing and just hoping. Hedging bets is generally a good idea. Bring Gray back or get another and find that bat.