A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't feel super comfortable about Crochet's long term health either. I've already said the variance about him for next season is somewhere between season ending surgery in ST and CY. 

100% agree, but outside of Ranger being a 150 inning pitcher you don’t really know what to expect out of Tolle, or Bennett inning wise. Gray has been pretty durable in is career, but now a days anyone can go down at anytime especially after a heavy workload.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

When Masa was signed, most evaluators were very bearish on him and did not like the contract he was given. I haven't heard many people being down on Sato in a similar manner. 

I’ve heard more folks dislike the contract than Yoshida as a player…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

100% agree, but outside of Ranger being a 150 inning pitcher you don’t really know what to expect out of Tolle, or Bennett inning wise. Gray has been pretty durable in is career, but now a days anyone can go down at anytime especially after a heavy workload.

I think there's a big difference between pushing it to 200 IP (Crochet '25) and 150 IP (Tolle/Bennett '26). I'm not super concerned with Tolle and Bennett. Pitching is inherently risky these days, but I don't think their inning counts were worrisome. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I’ve heard more folks dislike the contract than Yoshida as a player…

Sure, at 8M per year, you can have a DH/OF that hits 110 wRC+. It's whatever. He's an MLB caliber player, he's just paid like a top tier DH. He shouldn't have been.

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

When Masa was signed, most evaluators were very bearish on him and did not like the contract he was given. I haven't heard many people being down on Sato in a similar manner. 

They did not like the contract because Bloom shut the bidding process down in record time, and was reportedly way above everyone else.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think there's a big difference between pushing it to 200 IP (Crochet '25) and 150 IP (Tolle/Bennett '26). I'm not super concerned with Tolle and Bennett. Pitching is inherently risky these days, but I don't think their inning counts were worrisome. 

Yes I mentioned that the other day that Crochet’s workload was a lot more. Houck didn’t fare to well with his workload though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

They did not like the contract because Bloom shut the bidding process down in record time, and was reportedly way above everyone else.

It's like overpaying for breakfast. When I see lines of people waiting to get into a trendy diner, I wonder How much better can they make eggs than the place down the street? Over easy, sunnyside up, scrambled -- what am I missing?

I never thought Yoshida would be another Ichiro, but maybe be good enough to have some Boggs-like success in Fenway, spraying liners around.

Instead of perpetual 4-3s...

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Give me Paredes over Neto any day.

Paredes, who will cost less because he's not a shortstop, had 25 HRs and 13.4% K-rate -- compared to Neto's 27 HRs and 30.5% K-rate.

Paredes' contact skills gave him a .360 On Base% with only 88 strikeouts. Neto had a .330 OBP and 215 strikeouts! 

If the Red Sox are looking for a batter to reach base in front of Contreras, it's worth noting that no other regular besides Will the Shrill had a .360 OBP in '26.

Paredes could DH if Mead plays 2B, or Paredes can play 3B and move Durbin to 2B with Mead DH, and Paredes can play 1B when Contreras DHs. Boston will find a way to make it fit because another legit bat is too vital.

I also mentioned Springer -- not as a fulltimer, but as a more trusted righty bat and outfielder than Jones (please)... with rings. Sato had big power and big whiff numbers in Japan -- which of those two are more likely to increase in the majors? 

The Sox already have a shortstop they have to pay a lot, and another waiting to take over they only have to pay minimum...

 

Another reason Paredes will be much cheaper is the one year of control.

I've been high on Paredes, but the one year is scary. (Where does he play? DH? 2B?)

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes I mentioned that the other day that Crochet’s workload was a lot more. Houck didn’t fare to well with his workload though.

It also has to do with delivery and pitch mix. I think guys that throw a lot of sliders could be more prone to injury too (deGrom, Sale). 

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Another reason Paredes will be much cheaper is the one year of control.

I've been high on Paredes, but the one year is scary. (Where does he play? DH? 2B?)

I'd put Paredes at 2b before I'd put Mead there. 

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's like overpaying for breakfast. When I see lines of people waiting to get into a trendy diner, I wonder How much better can they make eggs than the place down the street? Over easy, sunnyside up, scrambled -- what am I missing?

I never thought Yoshida would be another Ichiro, but maybe be good enough to have some Boggs-like success in Fenway, spraying liners around.

Instead of perpetual 4-3s...

Yes the Red Sox should have checked out that he liked ping pong, and practiced his serves to the 2B.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think there's a big difference between pushing it to 200 IP (Crochet '25) and 150 IP (Tolle/Bennett '26). I'm not super concerned with Tolle and Bennett. Pitching is inherently risky these days, but I don't think their inning counts were worrisome. 

Agreed, and both were under the league average in pitches per IP.

To me, pitch counts matter more than IP.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure, at 8M per year, you can have a DH/OF that hits 110 wRC+. It's whatever. He's an MLB caliber player, he's just paid like a top tier DH. He shouldn't have been.

They thought he could play OF.

They thought he had a little more power.

I think they expected a 120 wRC+.

But, hey, for those who hate high K guys, he's your man.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They thought he could play OF.

They thought he had a little more power.

I think they expected a 120 wRC+.

But, hey, for those who hate high K guys, he's your man.

He puts the ball in play, doesn't whiff, but is really slow. It's not a tremendously useful profile. 

[Hugh2]

Imagine what 2027 would look like right now if we trade Payton Tolle and Franklin Arias for Joe Ryan last year?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure, at 8M per year, you can have a DH/OF that hits 110 wRC+. It's whatever. He's an MLB caliber player, he's just paid like a top tier DH. He shouldn't have been.

I dont mind the price tag.  Well, I do, but I would like if because we are paying him, we could assign him.  Just keep him in AAA , which allows us to go get a better DH and add some thump.  ANd Im expecting injuries and attrition.  So like if 2 if your top 5 bats go down, like we say, every year.  Maybe then Masa can come up like a Gasper or a Monasterio and fill in for a spell.  And maybe that period of time is the postseason.  

I remember not last year but the year before he was hitting fifth due to a lot of injuries to our playoff lineup.  I dont mind him there, even at the price tag.  I want depth of hitting, so we arent trying to win on the road against a good team, with the season on the line, with 3 good hitters and 6 noodles.  Like we have last 2 years.

Understand that asking him to be this guy, when we are paying him what we are, isnt the most efficient use of the bucks.  But look at free agency this year.  Its not like there is an easy way to spend efficiently.  And chasing efficiency or getting scared a contract may go south has caused us RS fans to settle for these "less than" lineups.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd put Paredes at 2b before I'd put Mead there. 

Agreed. I guess that would mean Story  at SS, whoi sucks on D at a more important position.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont mind the price tag.  Well, I do, but I would like if because we are paying him, we could assign him.  Just keep him in AAA , which allows us to go get a better DH and add some thump.  ANd Im expecting injuries and attrition.  So like if 2 if your top 5 bats go down, like we say, every year.  Maybe then Masa can come up like a Gasper or a Monasterio and fill in for a spell.  And maybe that period of time is the postseason.  

With his injury history, there's no guarantee that he'd be healthy when you'd need to recall him to BOS. 

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. I guess that would mean Story  at SS, whoi sucks on D at a more important position.

I would eat a lot of his contract and send him elsewhere, but I think the Sox are going to hold onto him and just expect to bring Arias up once Story is on the IL in June. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

They did not like the contract because Bloom shut the bidding process down in record time, and was reportedly way above everyone else.

So he spent what it took?  Isn’t that what folks want their GM to do?  

I mean, they want him to until he actually does it.  And then he overspends, which is bad…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I would eat a lot of his contract and send him elsewhere, but I think the Sox are going to hold onto him and just expect to bring Arias up once Story is on the IL in June. 

That would be ideal for a front office that cares so much about controlling that extra year of a baseball player that 9 out of 10 times is no longer with his original organization by then anyway.

But maybe it won't matter in the new CBA. More likely, they'll still be locked out...

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That would be ideal for a front office that cares so much about controlling that extra year of a baseball player that 9 out of 10 times is no longer with his original organization by then anyway.

But maybe it won't matter in the new CBA. More likely, they'll still be locked out...

The lock out is a choice! They could just play baseball under the old agreement and work out a new one during ST or the regular season. 😁

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

With his injury history, there's no guarantee that he'd be healthy when you'd need to recall him to BOS. 

Thats fair, but Im expecting injuries, and therefore not worried about there being a spot to play for all my guys.  I think thats part of where we'd gone wrong.  WE cant get Alonso! THen where would Masa play!!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I would eat a lot of his contract and send him elsewhere, but I think the Sox are going to hold onto him and just expect to bring Arias up once Story is on the IL in June. 

100%.

My wishes will not be met.

I'd be okay with Story at 2B, but not for Arias at SS. That's two weak slots in the line-up. Trade Arias plus for a know, big-bat SS and Story at 2B and mead at DH is fine.

Otherwise, trade Story for the most salary relief as possible ($4-7M saved?) Add a prospect to save $7-10M, maybe? Add a higher priced RP'er to offset Story's salary but fill a need we have?

[notin]

26 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats fair, but Im expecting injuries, and therefore not worried about there being a spot to play for all my guys.  I think thats part of where we'd gone wrong.  WE cant get Alonso! THen where would Masa play!!

I can promise you the that Sox didn’t sign Alonso nothing to do with Yoshida.  I can also promise you that criticism was made up by people who wanted Alonso and needed a rallying cry…

[notin]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The lock out is a choice! They could just play baseball under the old agreement and work out a new one during ST or the regular season. 😁

Not sure why the owners like to put the fas through this every 6 years.  I mean, I know why they lock out - to spread the message this is all the fault of greedy players, but at some point most fans realize this is just several hundred people trying to divide up several billion dollars and not being happy about it….

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Not sure why the owners like to put the fas through this every 6 years.  I mean, I know why they lock out - to spread the message this is all the fault of greedy players, but at some point most fans realize this is just several hundred people trying to divide up several billion dollars and not being happy about it….

Why do the greedy owners that charge a family of 4 $500+ to go to a KIDS GAME do this to the fans? Well, because they are greedy owners that charge a family of 4 $500+ to go to a KIDS GAME.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why do the greedy owners that charge a family of 4 $500+ to go to a KIDS GAME do this to the fans? Well, because they are greedy owners that charge a family of 4 $500+ to go to a KIDS GAME.

Is that what it costs to go to a Rays’ game?  s*** I pay less for Cubs’ tickets.

And we shouldn’t get into the cost of White Sox tickets…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why do the greedy owners that charge a family of 4 $500+ to go to a KIDS GAME do this to the fans? Well, because they are greedy owners that charge a family of 4 $500+ to go to a KIDS GAME.

That's just for gas to drive to Boston and to park a mile from Fenway.

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, notin said:

Is that what it costs to go to a Rays’ game?  s*** I pay less for Cubs’ tickets.

And we shouldn’t get into the cost of White Sox tickets…

Who said anything about going to a Rays game? Nobody does that. Haven't you seen the pictures? Can't even fill up the seats during the playoffs. "Fans" were complaining about $80 ALCS tickets and having to stay late for a game when they have to work the next day. It's a fanbase undeserving of a new park.