A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

NO one has ever said suggestions, and predictions aren’t different. What I said is that one can be just as wrong as the other

Some clown said this...

Do you think it makes you less wrong if you suggest something instead than predicting something? It doesn’t. One is just as wrong as the other.

I don't see the words "can be just as wrong" in this posters statement.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, into some other meaning. You finally got it right.

Admitting your problem is the first step to recovery.

Good luck on your journey to recovery.

Obviously you’re not Sheldon. Sheldon got tested.🤫

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Red: Do you think it makes you less wrong if you suggest something instead than predicting something? It doesn’t. One is just as wrong as the other. 

We must both be wrong, but I thought you said we were both right. 

I get it now, one is as wrong as the other, unless it is red's opinion, too.

Got it.

Well Brez didn’t take our advice, so I guess we’re all wrong. Theo must have overruled him.

[notin]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

NNN is talking about functional brain cells? Seriously? NO one has ever said suggestions, and predictions aren’t different. What I said is that one can be just as wrong as the other, and not less wrong especially in MOOn’s case who thinks he’s less wrong by trying to differentiate that he’s only suggesting when things don’t happen.

So when you suggested the Red Sox should get Alonso and Schwarber last off-season, and the Sox didn’t get them, YOU were wrong by your own logic.

Oh I get it.  You only apply it that way to other people.  Notin suggests the Red Sox need Coby Mayo.  Well, they didnt get Mayo (yet?) so he’s wrong. Moon suggests the Sox need EDLC, but he’s wrong because they didnt get him.  But Old Red suggests the Sox should get both Alonso and Schwarber last off-season, the Sox get neither, and Breslow is wrong.

Im starting to understand your wife gives you that look of contempt…

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

So when you suggested the Red Sox should get Alonso and Schwarber last off-season, and the Sox didn’t get them, YOU were wrong by your own logic.

Oh I get it.  You only apply it that way to other people.  Notin suggests the Red Sox need Coby Mayo.  Well, they didnt get Mayo (yet?) so he’s wrong. Moon suggests the Sox need EDLC, but he’s wrong because they didnt get him.  But Old Red suggests the Sox should get both Alonso and Schwarber last off-season, the Sox get neither, and Breslow is wrong.

Im starting to understand your wife gives you that look of contempt…

Huh? NNN I answered that above. Wow! You have really earned all your N’s today. Seriously take a break. You must be exhausted after all the things you come out with today.👋

[Bellhorn04]

Man, it's Rock Em Sock Em on every thread!  😀

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Huh? NNN I answered that above. Wow! You have really earned all your N’s today. Seriously take a break. You must be exhausted after all the things you come out with today.👋

See!! More of that “other people are wrong” stuff.

Thanks for proving my case.  We find the defendant repugnant, and sentence him to 15 years without tira misu!

<Gavel smash>

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Man, it's Rock Em Sock Em on every thread!  😀

Grump mood today. My apologies to all.

[notin]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Some clown said this...

Do you think it makes you less wrong if you suggest something instead than predicting something? It doesn’t. One is just as wrong as the other.

I don't see the words "can be just as wrong" in this posters statement.

Honestly, I think it’s his lack of quality desserts…

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Honestly, I think it’s his lack of quality desserts…

Possibly, too many.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Possibly, too many.

Gave himself next level triabetes?

Im going to change his sentence.  Require some aspic…

[Larry Cook]

On 10/2/2026 at 1:45 PM, mvp 78 said:

He had hinted that he was fine with retirement during the season. I don't think he's a guy that will be pitching when he's 40.

Gray’s strikeouts per 9 innings dropped below 8 this year: his fip was 3.47 which means the defense bailed him out a good bit this year!  
 

not sure that bres-slow sees value in a short pitcher with those type numbers!!!  
 

I would love to have gray back, but we have a data driven management team that sees things differently!  
 

I think Tolle and Bennett have dead arm next season due to the massive innings spike they experienced in 2026. (See crochet and Crawford for examples) 

a rotation of : 

1.) crochet 

2.) suarez

3.) Houck 

4.) bello

5.) Oviedo 

Depth: paez and Crawford! 

For 2027 is scary!!!  therefore; we need another starter. 
 

ps: need to go balls out to sign moorjon, best stuff of the relievers available 

[moonslav59]

14 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I think Tolle and Bennett have dead arm next season due to the massive innings spike they experienced in 2026. (See crochet and Crawford for examples) 

We could try to baby Tolle & Bennett.

Tolle went over 150 IP counting the playoffs. That is rather high but not real high. He's a big strong guy who seemed to not tire out like Bennett did.

Bennet only pitched 113 IP (455 PAs against)

Here are some numbers that kinda ease my mind on these two big pitchers:

Pitches per PA were low:

3.56 Bennett (455 PA Against)

3.61 Gray (686)

3.78 Tolle (604)

3.79 Bello (503)

3.88 Suarez (614)

League AVG 3.88

3.92 Early (390 before injury & trade)

Sandoval was at 3.80 (321)

Crochet 3.75 (138)

Last year:

3.83 Bello

3.84 Gio

3.85 Crochet

3.86 Buehler

(3.87 League AVG)

Bennet threw just 90 more pitches than Early did. I'm not sure 1618 is enough to burn him out.

2282 by Tolle could bite the team back, but it was about 200 less pitches than Gray and 100 less than Suarez who was babied all year long.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/16/2026 at 12:45 PM, drewski6 said:

If they can get through to Contreras, and they may have - then maybe we can help Marte keep his head on straight.  Im just worried about them dragging each other down mentally.

I was actually going to mention that Contreras might be the guy that keeps Marte in line.  He can be intimidating, and low-key crazy (my daughter explained that to me when she fouled out the opposing center) is sometimes better than full-on crazy.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/16/2026 at 12:48 PM, notin said:

Contreras has anger issues and Marte gets sad and flaky.

I can see Contreras putting his arm around Marte, offering his condolences for whatever ails him, and telling that he is going to stuff him in the locker if he doesn't take the field.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/16/2026 at 2:39 PM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I can't imagine someone's career WAR could be so low after just making the big leagues.

So are you saying that it might be a tad early to make definitive assessments of Baez?

[JoeBrady]

On 10/16/2026 at 2:52 PM, moonslav59 said:

Durbin, Duran, Sogard & Cespedes

for

Yordan (2 yrs) and Paredes (1 yr)

I'd drive them to Houston myself, but it ain't happening.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/16/2026 at 4:04 PM, notin said:

Regardless of what you think, they're not going to overhaul a team that won 89 and 87 7games in the past 2 years.   They probably only add one bat,, and it isn't going to be De La Cruz,,,

I think RS are obsessed with the Shiny Object Syndrome.  Anyone without a big name need not apply.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/16/2026 at 4:06 PM, notin said:

The only question is will the Yankees offer him a QO.  Per MLBTR, their current plan is to only extend one to Bednar.

I think the were quoting Sherman, and that was a personal opinion.  I'd be shocked if the NYY didn't offer Jazz a QO, and be shocked if Jazz accepted.  He's a solid 3 bWAR player going on 29.  He's a good candidate for a 4- or 5-year contract in the range of $60M++.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/16/2026 at 4:16 PM, drewski6 said:

One of Jordan Walker, James Wood, Elly, Tatis or no baseball is my hope

Jordan Walked has had two good months in his career.  None of the other three are getting traded.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/16/2026 at 5:19 PM, notin said:

Only 65 extra base hits? That’s all he has to do?

Only 24 hitters in all of MLB had that many.  And it’s your bare minimum?

That sounds like when Fred said his bare minimum last year was a 3B with an .850 OPS.  I sometimes people make things up that 'sound' right, but really aren't.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/16/2026 at 5:23 PM, moonslav59 said:

Every team has a few Durbins.

Like Mil, TB, and Cleveland.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/16/2026 at 12:24 PM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But don't draft a guy that you don't have at least a verbal commitment for signing from either a parent or agent. 

It doesn't matter.  You get the same pick the following year if he doesn't sign.

[JoeBrady]

On 10/16/2026 at 4:23 PM, notin said:

The trick should be not to find last year’s stars, but instead find next year’s.  You shot me done when I suggested Miguel Vargas a year ago.  Turns out, he’s a star now.

Next year's Miguel Vargas/Jordan Walker will be Coby Mayo.

I'm not a fan of Mayo.  Legit power, but poor splits.  But I love the idea of trying to project the future rather than overpaying for the past.

My choice is Brent Rooker.  He'd have been a tough player to acquire last year.  Given his knee injury, and a contract that's expensive for LV, but not for us, he might not cost much.  And his bat is very-well suited for Fenway.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I think RS are obsessed with the Shiny Object Syndrome.  Anyone without a big name need not apply.

I'm thinking Mead and AR were attempts at Dull Object Syndrome, and we try to add one more like them, this winter.

Who could it be?

Rooker is probably too shiny.

I don't see the O's trading Mayo, but they make dumb trades all the time.

I'm thinking wee go for a LH'd dull object.

Kurtz is too shiny and costly. STL is too smart to trade Burleson.

Here is a shot in the dull darkness: Griffin Conine. Ty France might be a steal.

BLowe and Arozarena both hit RHPs very well, but have some downsides and will be costly.

As for shiny objects, I think we may have a shot at FA Sato or a trade for Abrams. DLC and Suzuki would cost too much for Brez & JH.

[NHNative]

We are doomed...clearly.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, NHNative said:

We are doomed...clearly.

If the stars were shining you could see clearly. But talksox got so dull overnight that posters are now looking forward to banging the humdrum slowly.

The future's so bright I gotta wear an eyepatch. If we all wear one, maybe the Pirates will notice and trade Konnor Griffin for Roman Anthony's ringless ringfinger.

Wait -- Griffin also missed time with a torn ring finger and had an elbow injury. At least both were attributed to fielding accidents, and not half-swinging the bat. 

Griffin, age 20, is another young stud all messed up playing a his game (not a kid's game). Casas, Roman, Konnor -- like most of us frustrated jocks -- all grew up big and strong from drinking steroidal cow's milk. 

ROIDS: the magic chemical that builds muscles up then tears them back down.

[Behindenemylines]

The biggest need is still a right-handed power bat. If Gray walks (I think he will) he will need to be replaced. The Sox have a team that can make the playoffs, but to make a run in October more fine tuning will need to be done.

[moonslav59]

We were so bad from 2019 to 2023, and 2020-2023 was under Bloom. We had one good year in 2021- mostly by riding the last residual skills from the 2018 team. It's easy to throw around words like "bad culture, complacency (FO and fans) and nerds."

I know we all want rings, and nobody expected Brez to build a ring team in one year. Three years should be close to enough: I agree, and this was his third season. The team went from two straight years at 78-84 to 81-81 in 2023, then 89-73 and 87-75 the last two seasons.

257 wins ranks 9th.

56.3 pitching fWAR ranks 3rd. (5th in ER allowed but 12th in runs allowed)

69.2 everyday fWAR ranks 8th. (8th in runs scored)

If you give Brez a pass for 2024, his first season and no major expanded spending other than the Devers extension...

2025-2026

7th in Wins (1 ahead on TBR and 5 behind CHC & SDP)

4th in runs allowed (1287) & 9th in runs scored (1475)

+188 run differential

3rd in Pitching fWAR (3rd lowest earned runs allowed)

7th in everyday fWAR (9th in runs scored)

5th in DRS & 7th in OAA (4th in fangraph's dWAR)

Nobody can deny these numbers show marked success. The dip in wins from 2025 to 2026 goes against the "continued" progress position, for sure, but I don't think it's the homer in me that thinks we got better from 2025 to 2026.

Expectations should be high for 2027, and I'm not seeing fan "complacency." I see more of a sense of urgency. What we do or fail to do this winter will be talked about a lot. I hope we get bold, and if Brez has been anything (for good or bad) he's been bold. From Sale & Devers to Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Contreras, Mead and AR and more, he has not shied away from making major moves.

At the risk of looking beyond 2027, we will finally be rid of Story and Yoshida after this coming season. Maybe just those one year left aspects to those deals might be enough to get JH to green light something really big, this winter- knowing $32M in AAV comes off the books soon. If we trade Duran, we can shed $11M for 2027 and about the same of more for 2028. That's $11M now and $43M for 2028. I'll be pissed if JH goes cheap this winter. We have a window wide open, and it's not a 1-2 year window either.

Most of our core players are under control for 3-6 years. That's not an easy thing for a GM to pull off, and I'm not sure how many other teams can match the years of control + talent, like we do. I do think this 2027 roster looks unprecedented in Sox post "non free agent" history...

8 Anthony (counting 1 option) & Campbell (counting 2 options)

6 Bennett, Gamboa, Paez, Samaniego, Cheng, Rivera, Olds, Burgos

5 Crochet, Tolle, Rafaela, Suarez, Sogard, Seigler, Gasper

4 Mead, Durbin, Bello, T Guerrero, Jones

3 Abreu, Miller, Slaten, Weissert, Monasterio, Kelly

2 Contreras, Whitlock, Crawford, White, Duran, Romy, Casas, Wong

1 AR, Chapman, Houck, Oviedo, Story, Yoshida

Losing Chapman and AR after 2027 is significant, but it's just 2 players after losing just one this year (Gray.) I can't remember the last time we had a roster looking this good and losing just 3 important players in 2 years.

It looks like just 2 more after 2028 (Willson & Whitlock) and 2 after 2029 (Abreu & Miller.)

We don't face any major single winter loss for a long time.

 

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We were so bad from 2019 to 2023, and 2020-2023 was under Bloom. We had one good year in 2021- mostly by riding the last residual skills from the 2018 team. It's easy to throw around words like "bad culture, complacency (FO and fans) and nerds."

I know we all want rings, and nobody expected Brez to build a ring team in one year. Three years should be close to enough: I agree, and this was his third season. The team went from two straight years at 78-84 to 81-81 in 2023, then 89-73 and 87-75 the last two seasons.

257 wins ranks 9th.

56.3 pitching fWAR ranks 3rd. (5th in ER allowed but 12th in runs allowed)

69.2 everyday fWAR ranks 8th. (8th in runs scored)

If you give Brez a pass for 2024, his first season and no major expanded spending other than the Devers extension...

2025-2026

7th in Wins (1 ahead on TBR and 5 behind CHC & SDP)

4th in runs allowed (1287) & 9th in runs scored (1475)

+188 run differential

3rd in Pitching fWAR (3rd lowest earned runs allowed)

7th in everyday fWAR (9th in runs scored)

5th in DRS & 7th in OAA (4th in fangraph's dWAR)

Nobody can deny these numbers show marked success. The dip in wins from 2025 to 2026 goes against the "continued" progress position, for sure, but I don't think it's the homer in me that thinks we got better from 2025 to 2026.

Expectations should be high for 2027, and I'm not seeing fan "complacency." I see more of a sense of urgency. What we do or fail to do this winter will be talked about a lot. I hope we get bold, and if Brez has been anything (for good or bad) he's been bold. From Sale & Devers to Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Contreras, Mead and AR and more, he has not shied away from making major moves.

At the risk of looking beyond 2027, we will finally be rid of Story and Yoshida after this coming season. Maybe just those one year left aspects to those deals might be enough to get JH to green light something really big, this winter- knowing $32M in AAV comes off the books soon. If we trade Duran, we can shed $11M for 2027 and about the same of more for 2028. That's $11M now and $43M for 2028. I'll be pissed if JH goes cheap this winter. We have a window wide open, and it's not a 1-2 year window either.

Most of our core players are under control for 3-6 years. That's not an easy thing for a GM to pull off, and I'm not sure how many other teams can match the years of control + talent, like we do. I do think this 2027 roster looks unprecedented in Sox post "non free agent" history...

8 Anthony (counting 1 option) & Campbell (counting 2 options)

6 Bennett, Gamboa, Paez, Samaniego, Cheng, Rivera, Olds, Burgos

5 Crochet, Tolle, Rafaela, Suarez, Sogard, Seigler, Gasper

4 Mead, Durbin, Bello, T Guerrero, Jones

3 Abreu, Miller, Slaten, Weissert, Monasterio, Kelly

2 Contreras, Whitlock, Crawford, White, Duran, Romy, Casas, Wong

1 AR, Chapman, Houck, Oviedo, Story, Yoshida

Losing Chapman and AR after 2027 is significant, but it's just 2 players after losing just one this year (Gray.) I can't remember the last time we had a roster looking this good and losing just 3 important players in 2 years.

It looks like just 2 more after 2028 (Willson & Whitlock) and 2 after 2029 (Abreu & Miller.)

We don't face any major single winter loss for a long time.

 

2026 MLB, and especially the AL was the weakest I have EVER seen it in all my years of following it, so winning two less games after a major contribution from the magic carpet ride the rest of the season was not a good look, and maybe a false perspective of the season in whole.