A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Reportedly the 2019 trade involved Will Smith.  The rapper-turned-actor, not the catcher.

As bad as that Dodger offer was, the Padres was one even worse.  Both offers could have been better if not for the Sox forcing the inclusion of the expensive and ultimately useless David Price (plus half of his contract.)

The Price aspect is often overlooked.

For some reason, we were fine dumping AGon, knowing we got rid of CC's deal (Beckett's was kind of a push.)

It's amazing how much salary the Dodgers have taken off our hands.

How about Yoshida, Duran and Story for Wil's grandma?

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

The Price aspect is often overlooked.

For some reason, we were fine dumping AGon, knowing we got rid of CC's deal (Beckett's was kind of a push.)

It's amazing how much salary the Dodgers have taken off our hands.

How about Yoshida, Duran and Story for Wil's grandma?

Also lost in the A-Gon trade - the Sox got NOTHING back.  Who was the best player that came back to Boston in that trade?

Of the 5 players Boston received in that trade, three finished with career bWAR less than 0.  Rubby de la Rosa finished with a whopping 1.8 bWAR for his career.  But the real prize was James “Mediocrity” Loney and his 11.4 bWAR spread out over his 11 year career.  That’s not much better than Connor Wong (4.2 bWAR in 6 seasons)…

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

Also lost in the A-Gon trade - the Sox got NOTHING back.  Who was the best player that came back to Boston in that trade?

Of the 5 players Boston received in that trade, three finished with career bWAR less than 0.  Rubby de la Rosa finished with a whopping 1.8 bWAR for his career.  But the real prize was James “Mediocrity” Loney and his 11.4 bWAR spread out over his 11 year career.  That’s not much better than Connor Wong (4.2 bWAR in 6 seasons)…

Exactly, yet nobody talks about it.

I remember calling it one of the top 5 or 10 trades in Red Sox history, at the time- not for the return but for the addition by subtraction. Even I did not forsee the money saved bring us the 2013 ring with guys like Victorino & Napoli.

[Bellhorn04]

12 hours ago, Donnie Sadler was short said:

If you read any of Mookies comments either recently or years ago about Boston its pretty clear he didnt like it here....the mistake was not getting  more back but wake up people..He didnt want to be here!

What comments are you talking about?

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What comments are you talking about?

According to Jim Rice who talked with Mookie before Mookie got traded to the Dodgers Mookie had no bad feelings about playing  in Boston.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I read all the actual Mookie quotes about how he and his partner, on the verge of starting a family and permanent home, were shopping for houses in the Boston area in the winter it all ended. He assumed contract negotiations were ongoing, and also seriously considered accepting a previous longterm offer the year before that his mom talked him out of (because everyone knew he was worth more).

Jim Rice also said on NESN that Mookie called him the night he was traded and said, "Boston was where he wanted to be." 

Now if Betts or any professional athlete who plays an outdoor sport were asked which locale is easier on the body in regards to aging and maintaining quality performance -- Boston with crappy Spring nights or somewhere in always-sunny southern California -- the latter will always be the unanimous choice.

[moonslav59]

What scares me is the Brez might view the Mead and AR mis summer deals as the line-up improvement he needed, and the box is already checked. The Mead injury prevented us from seeing the results immediately, but he sees the results as coming into fruition in 2027. 

While I happen to believe Mead will be a real good to great batter, we are going to need more than a big year from him. I'm also not so certain AR will ever be even close to the batter he was 3-4 years ago. IMO, we don't really need much more than .750 to realize a major gain in our catching production on offense. (He's also real good on D, which matters more to me at C and SS.) We've had a catcher OPS of .688 since 2020 and worse (.669) since 2024. If AR can bat .769, we gain 100 Points, which is no different than upgrading a .710 Durbin to an .810 new 3Bman.

The reason I am high on Mead is that his nice half season was not like Grissom's out of the gate rookie year, or KC's couple good weeks in early April. He was (is) 25 and was a force, this year. I've been wrong before, and could be here, but I really like these two additions and see them as essential pieces to the 2027 line-up and roster.

We do need at least one more upgrade, and we should not rely on a big comeback from Anthony, although it could happen. We can't rely on Duran returning to 2024 (or even 2025,) Story to 2025, or Yoshida to his career OP over 150 games. Doing so would be asking for a repeat.

We've had some debates about what position is best for an upgrade, and even a side debate one whether positions even matter. To me, we have so many players that can play a few positions, we can basically add anywhere except starting catcher, and make anyone fit. On paper, our weakest offensive positions look like LF (Anthony to DH) DH (Anthony to LF) SS and 2B (Mead to DH.)

SS: I seriously doubt we trade for a SS, unless we include Arias in the deal. I hope to God they don't even think about Story as anything more than SS depth. No, Monasterio, Cheng & Sogard are not wire-to-wire options even as platoons. They are okay depth.

2B: Mead may not be very good at 2B defense, so maybe he'll DH, but I think we get more bnag for the buch with him at 2B. (Signing BLowe and having Mead DH and Anthony in LF would be fine with me, though.) This guy from Japan, Soto, looks like the real deal, but he plays 3B. I wonder if we can sign him and move him to 2B or play Durbin at 2B and Mead to DH. Soto would likely fill our big bat need.

LF/DH: We will be counting on Anthony to fill one slot- dependable or not. It would be nice to know they fixed his hand by March. Suzuki looks like the best FA option in LF, but who thinks we will outbid the top bidders? I'd rather we pass on Arozarena, but he is an upgrade over Duran (LF) and Yoshida, maybe barely (DH.) I might rather have a Yoshida-Jones or Gasper-Romy DH platoon than Arozarena in LF and Anthony at DH.

What else is out there? Ant trade would involve Arias and or Justin Gonzales plus maybe more. We can make some minor tweaks by trading from our middle infield depth and one of our out-of-options RHB OF'ers (Jones or White) but none are bringing us anything significant. Trading Primera seems foolish. Trading the upside of Valera seems too risky, and he does not have much return value, now anyway. Godbout has not reached major trade value, yet, but could be someone who makes trading Arias for a 2-3 year mega SS more acceptable. Delzine & Soto are too far away to carry much trade value - the recent draftees, as well. The most likely trade idea might be this: we trade a current starter, add a mid tier prospect or two- or a good one for a major upgrade, and try to get a significant improvement at one position. With some flex players, we don't necessarily have to trade someone like Mead + prospects for a 2Bman: we could add a SS or LF'er and go with Story/Sogard/Seigler/Romy at 2B, but the gain in LF has to be more than the loss at 2B, or it's not worth it.

Trade Durbin and Arias for a megastar/mega bat SS, then sign Soto?

Trade Abreu and Godbout for a SS and sign Suzuki?

Maybe this way is the option we choose?

 

[moonslav59]

Man, how long ago was the Mookie trade? 7 years! Wow.

He put up some nice years for the Dodgers and turns 34, soon. I sure we had found a way to keep him, even if it meant saying good bye to Sale or Nate plus maybe trading away JD.

At this point in time, Betts may be looking more and more like Bogey. He has a .753 OPS from 2025-2026 (ages 32-33) and that's better than Bogey, but his expectations were higher, too. BTW, that .753 is still a 108 OPS+ and his defense and flexibility on D is a big plus.

Betts is still owed: ages 34-39

27:$25M, 28:$30M, 29:$30M, 30:$30M, 31:$27.5M, 32:$27.5M

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Man, how long ago was the Mookie trade? 7 years! Wow.

He put up some nice years for the Dodgers and turns 34, soon. I sure we had found a way to keep him, even if it meant saying good bye to Sale or Nate plus maybe trading away JD.

At this point in time, Betts may be looking more and more like Bogey. He has a .753 OPS from 2025-2026 (ages 32-33) and that's better than Bogey, but his expectations were higher, too. BTW, that .753 is still a 108 OPS+ and his defense and flexibility on D is a big plus.

Betts is still owed: ages 34-39

27:$25M, 28:$30M, 29:$30M, 30:$30M, 31:$27.5M, 32:$27.5M

Betts is still playing at a star level.  Bogey has been no more than average with San Diego.

Betts 36.5 bWAR in 7 seasons with LA - 5.2 per season.

Bogey 9.6 bWAR in 4 with SD - 2.4 per season.

 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Betts is still playing at a star level.  Bogey has been no more than average with San Diego.

Xander's contract was terrible when it was signed. Sox should have worked on an extension long before it expired that worked for both sides. 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Xander's contract was terrible when it was signed. Sox should have worked on an extension long before it expired that worked for both sides. 

As I said many times earlier DD should have given him a better 6 years deal at the time with no opt-out.

[Bellhorn04]

Xander's first season with SD was strong, but he's been very mediocre in the years 2024-2026.

[notin]

On 10/2/2026 at 11:18 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Grissom was a prospect.  Sale is a Hall of Fame level talent.

I realize no one ever changes their positions on these things.

Disagree.  Lots of folks changed positions on this trade once Sale bounced back…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Disagree.  Lots of folks changed positions on this trade once Sale bounced back…

I think the prevailing opinion was "who the heck is Vaughn Grissom and he better be a real player for this to work out." I don't think there were many posters overly enthusiastic about the trade. 

[notin]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think the prevailing opinion was "who the heck is Vaughn Grissom and he better be a real player for this to work out." I don't think there were many posters overly enthusiastic about the trade. 

Shortly before the trade, there were many upset to find out the Sox had an offer for Sale’s entire contract with the Sox hetting essentially nothing, and there were folks upset that deal got turned down.

And Grissom wasn’t complete unknown.  He had debuted a couple years earlier for Atlanta at Fenway, and even hit his first MLB home run there.  Atlanta’s issue was finding a place to play him.  Hec wasn’t much for shortstop and they had Riley and Albies entrenched at 3b and 2b respectively.

MLBTR even reported at the time the that the Braves “are counting on [Sale] as a third or even a fourth starter” while Grissom fills an immediate need for Boston at 2b.

Neither of those things happened, which turned out to be a big problem for Boston…

Source:  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/braves-red-sox-trade-chris-sale-for-vaughn-grissom.html

[Bellhorn04]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

Disagree.  Lots of folks changed positions on this trade once Sale bounced back…

I changed positions on it when the offseason was over and we had only signed Giolito.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Shortly before the trade, there were many upset to find out the Sox had an offer for Sale’s entire contract with the Sox hetting essentially nothing, and there were folks upset that deal got turned down.

You're asking about the opinions on here. I went back and re-read the Sale trade thread. Most people had no clue about Vaughn Grissom. People that are generally negative on the Sox were negative on the trade. People who were down on "Frail Sale" hated the trade. Everyone else had mixed reactions. They ended up NOT figuring out the rotation that offseason and ultimately didn't find a solution at 2b. Terrible trade. Breslow doesn't get enough grief for it. I was hopeful that Grissom would work out at 2b. He didn't. Breslow should get panned for the bad trade. That's just the life of a CBO: take the wins and the losses. 

[JimEd]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Xander's contract was terrible when it was signed. Sox should have worked on an extension long before it expired that worked for both sides. 

yeah, it's terrible but still better than what we have got from Story.

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You're asking about the opinions on here. I went back and re-read the Sale trade thread. Most people had no clue about Vaughn Grissom. People that are generally negative on the Sox were negative on the trade. People who were down on "Frail Sale" hated the trade. Everyone else had mixed reactions. They ended up NOT figuring out the rotation that offseason and ultimately didn't find a solution at 2b. Terrible trade. Breslow doesn't get enough grief for it. I was hopeful that Grissom would work out at 2b. He didn't. Breslow should get panned for the bad trade. That's just the life of a CBO: take the wins and the losses. 

I didn’t like the $17M Breslow chipped in myself.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Betts is still owed: ages 34-39

27:$25M, 28:$30M, 29:$30M, 30:$30M, 31:$27.5M, 32:$27.5M

As teams, GMs and budget fans know full well, superstar players get recruited and paid for the first half of those longterm mega-contracts, no matter what production comes at the back end.

And every Dodger fan will tell you it was worth it to have Mookie Betts and his 5.2 WAR per year the past seven seasons, when he played a big role in winning three rings (so far) for LA...

... and I'll bet every Red Sox fan would say the same thing if he accomplished those feats in Boston during that time instead.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Betts is still playing at a star level.  Bogey has been no more than average with San Diego.

Betts 36.5 bWAR in 7 seasons with LA - 5.2 per season.

Bogey 9.6 bWAR in 4 with SD - 2.4 per season.

 

For sure. The dip from a 8+ bWAR in 2023 to 4.6>4.9>4.1 is noticeable, but e's still really good and better than Bogey.

Bogey's best SDP season was year one (2023) at 4.2, then 1.2>2.1>2.2.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Xander's contract was terrible when it was signed. Sox should have worked on an extension long before it expired that worked for both sides. 

Why? He had one good year after his control years ended, then meh.

I'm glad we never extended him, unless we traded him right after 2023.

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking we might have to get used to the idea that we will lose Gray and will not likely even try to replace him in kind or even half in kind. They will roll the dice with Crochet and hope Houck, Oviedo and Crawford will be enough depth.

I'm not as pumped up about our returning everyday players as I once was, and it is nice that we don't lose anyone (but IKF,) however we lack serious high quality players. We have some really nice WAR players with numbers helped mostly by their defense (Rafaela, Durbin & Abreu,) but our main issue is offense, and while these guys are not net negatives, we have too many 7-8-9 type batters. They might be better than most 7-8-9s but not good enough for the 5 or 6 slots.

We have very nice depth at just about every position but Catcher, but by adding AR, the catcher position should not be a major focus for upgrading. Working from best batters to worst, I think we simply have to rely on...

Contreras at 1B

Anthony in LF/DH

Mead at 2B/DH

Abreu RF

The next tier is ...

Rutschman C

Rafaela CF (so great on D, and not bad on O, so likely a keeper)

I'd say the other players and positions are the ones we should focus on. We might be lucky to get one big add, but maybe two decent to big could occur. We will likely live with 1-2 as is, and since Mead can play 2B, 1B and DH, and Anthony can play corner OF and DH, we have some flex there:

LF/DH/2B- Anthony, Mead, Story, Yoshida, Gasper, Romy, Jones, White, Duran, Sogard, Brannon

3B: Durbin, Sogard, Monasterio, 

SS: Arias/Story, Monasterio, Cheng

BTV gives Durbin a 30 value, which seems very high, but great  D and 5 years of control does have trade value. Arais has double the BTV value as Durbin, but he offers a low cost solution to a positional problem we've had since Bogey and defensive issues at SS from before Xman.

FA solutions could be:

3B/LF/DH Sato

OF Suzuki

2B/DH B Lowe

I started out high on BLowe but have been talked down a peg or two. Sato might be the best hope, and Suzuki is more proven. No way we get 2 of these three, but it doesn't hurt to dream. If we don't spend much on pitching, maybe we can get one of these three and a second tier addition, but those options are too many to name. If we sign Sato, we could trade Durbin or move him to 2B and DH Mead. If we sign Suzuki, we could DH Anthony and try to trade Yoshida +$14M for what? I guess we could trade Yoshida, Gasper and jones or Romy, but again, for what? If we sign BLowe, Mead would DH and the same trades could be attempted.

I think my first choice is now Sato, #2 Suzuki and #3 Lowe.

 

[moonslav59]

A Look at our projected Rotation and SP'er depth

Gray will not accept the mutual option, so consider him a FA, who may or may not return. Here is what we have controlled:

1. Crochet: The injury concern is real. We know little about how much he can regain, of how many innings he can give us, but he looks like the plan for replacing Gray.

2. Tolle: We could call him the #1, since he was the number 1 playoff starter. I'm fine with that. He looks like the real deal.

3. Suarez: three straight sub 3.50 ERA seasons- all around 150 IP. He's no innings-eater horse, but he just had his best FIP (3.16) and WHIP (1.187,) so maybe he can step up a notch in production or IP. Maybe...

4. Bennett: may have been a flash as his 4.83 ERA over his last 11 starts. 4.93 over his last 8 starts and 5.93 in his last 3 is worrisome. I still like the chances of him being a plus #4.

5. Bello was all over the map but seemed to conquer the starter yips. He had a real rough start to the season, but came on in the middle and end. His previous 3 seasons were pretty good, so for the most part he's been a reliable #5. He had a 106 ERA+ 2023-2025 (4.02 ERA) He had a 2.98 ERA after May 1st. After his one horrible June start, he had a 2.11 ERA after July 1st.

That's a solid 5. Now, the depth:

Houck was our ace in 2024. That's not that long ago. He pitched nearly 180 IP that season with a 3.12 ERA. His injury may have already affected his performance as he was nearly unhittable. He had a 2.18 ERA after 16 starts, and the 2.22 FIP showed it was no fluke. In no way am I saying he can or will return to that level, but it's not impossible to come close to that. (He was 4.42 in his last 14 GS.) He's 31.

Oviedo has had one long season (2023) with 178 IP, but the 4.31 ERA was nothing special. He missed 2024 with TJS, but from 2022 to 2025, he posted a 3.97 ERA (110 ERA+.) 44 IP in the last 3 seasons is scary. Brez must have saw something: let's see if we can see that hope. He's only 28.

Crawford is 31 and has 2 arb years left. He was our IP leader in 2024, again, not that long ago. The 95 ERA+ was underwhelming, but his 113 ERA+ in 2023 made many of us feel he could be a real good one. My guess is, since he has an option left, he may start the season in AAA.

In no way can we view the extended depth as a plus, but we do have 4 okay starters in AAA: Paez, Wehunt, Holobetz, Ziehl. I don't see any AA SP'ers that might make the leap to MLB in 2027. (Brown, Futrell & Monegro)

All-in-all, our SP'ers should be viewed as top 5-7 in MLB, even without Gray.

 

 

[moonslav59]

A Look at the Projected 2027 Bullpen

The 2026 pen was a major part of the team's run to the playoffs. There were not many major injuries, but near the end we were missing some key pieces and Miller imploded. Here is what the pen might look like next year, not counting any additions:

Chapman has had a couple excellent to very nice seasons. At his age maybe we can't expect three, but we have little hope anyone else can do it.

Whitlock had an amazing season- not his first. He could maybe become the closer, but we need him as one of the leagues best set-up men, once again.

Miller had a very nice run after the trade, but his end of the season performance throws it all in doubt. We have to slot him in our top 4-5 leverage relievers.

Slaten can't stay healthy, but he is likely top 5, if he can.

Guerrero may have been a fluke, but he's top 5, too.

Weissert could move to a top 5 role or drop down to the last pen arm. He's that unpredictable.

Moran is out of options and was left off the playoff roster. He might be traded.

Oviedo & Houck could start the season in the pen, but they are needed as SP'er depth, too.

Depth/Roster bubble: Gamboa, Samaniego, Kelly, Bastardo, Mullins, Olds, Rivera, Song

I'd like to see us add someone like Morejon, but the money will be spent elsewhere. It's likely Brez looks for a couple T Guerreros.

 

[moonslav59]

A Look at the 2027 Catchers

Rutschman is the best catcher we've had in years, even if he never comes close to his first couple season numbers again. He could bring us a +100 to 150 OPS over what we've seen in recent years from our catchers. After AR, it gets a bit scary, despite Brez's winter moves to build system depth at catcher. All of his adds are not going to be 2027 MLB ready.

Wong is likely the best back-up in the system, unless you wants Gasper flubbing things up on defense.

Minor league depth:

Nate Baez is okay, but not someone you want playing everyday, if needed. Jo Garcia has been a personal favorite of mine, but he may be best used at DH. Tomas Nido? (Hickey is a DH/1B)

AA: Ronny Hernandez shows hope as a batter but likely at DH. Ge Rod has gotten some props and seems good on D. Hudson White has some promise.

A+ Heyman & Salazar could rise up but not to MLB in 2027 and maybe not 2028 either.

A- Primera could be the jewel among the system catchers but is very far away. Jorge Rodriguez is the back-up, along with Musett.

[moonslav59]

A Look at the 2027 Corner Infielders

Contreras at 1B was a godsend and a major reason we made the playoffs. We even got the Cardinals to pitch in some cash! He's 35, so I'm not sure what we can expect next year, but I'm pretty sure we roll the dice with him. Mead can play 1B, but we need a big upgrade at 2B offense, so I doubt we see him at 1B, unless Willson gets hurt of fall of a cliff. Sogard and Romy make for capable back-ups and Gasper and Casas could surprise. 1B looks pretty solid. Brannon might be added as a Rule 5 protectee. (Justin Gonzales may end up at 1B in a couple years.)

Durbin had a near .800 second half of 2026 and plays near GG defense. It's hard to think we should replace a pre-arb guy like him, but if we want a big boost in offense, maybe we look at 3B (Sato?) Sogard and Monasterio are decent ML depth, but we aren't deep here. Story & Cheng are options.

[moonslav59]

A Look at the 2027 Middle Infielders

Arias could be the savior or the next KC. He looks good on D, and I'd like to see him at SS to start the season, but who knows. I'm not a fan of Story's SS defense, and I'm not sure I'd be very happy with him as our 2Bman, but if we get a big bat elsewhere (even SS) I'd be okay with Story and Mead at 2B. I'm very high on Mead but he may best be used as a DH. He was on pace for 34 HRs and 70 XBHs before the injury. Sogard, Seigler, Monasterio, Romy and Cheng are decent depth behind the 3 guys for 2 positions, so we seem okay here.

One idea could be to trade Arias plus _____ for a major SS bat like Abrams, de la Cruz but I'm not sure I'd do this for Neto or the one and done Pena.

 

[moonslav59]

A look at the 2027 Outfield and DH

Anthony, Rafaela and Abreu could be the best 1-2-3 OF in MLB- when combining O and D. You all know my feelings on Duran, and I saw an $11M arb estimate on him, today: bye-bye Jarren. I'm fine with Yoshida, White and Jones as subs. AAA had Ward, KC and out of options Eaton. Maybe Justin Gonzales rises to near MLB ready by mid season- likely not.

DH can be upgraded, but a platoon formed from these guys could do fine: Yoshida, Anthony (Duran in LF) Gasper, Romy, Jones and Sogard. Maybe we sign Suzuki and DH Anthony.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

As teams, GMs and budget fans know full well, superstar players get recruited and paid for the first half of those longterm mega-contracts, no matter what production comes at the back end.

And every Dodger fan will tell you it was worth it to have Mookie Betts and his 5.2 WAR per year the past seven seasons, when he played a big role in winning three rings (so far) for LA...

... and I'll bet every Red Sox fan would say the same thing if he accomplished those feats in Boston during that time instead.

No doubt.

I once suggested $400M/14.